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SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg via Getty ImagesInvestors have been monitoring for potential intervention in the Japanese yen, but recent comments have triggered discussion about "coordinated intervention" with South Korea. The currency has struggled, slipping past 150, since the Bank of Japan raised rates in March. Following that volatility, the U.S. last week acknowledged Japan and South Korea's "serious concerns" over the recent sharp depreciation in their currencies. The comments spurred chatter about possible coordinated currency intervention. Brady said South Korea and Japan could amplify their individual messages to the market by coordinating policy, which might also enhance the short-term impact compared to unilateral action.
Persons: SeongJoon Cho, James Brady, Brady Organizations: Korean, Woori, Bloomberg, Getty, U.S ., Bank of, South Korean, greenback, Authorities, Treasury, Bank of Japan Locations: Seoul, South Korea, Bank of Japan, U.S, Japan, South, Tokyo, Bank of Korea
“During some periods both the cost of buying (down payments) and the cost of owning (mortgage repayments) have been high. Mortgage rates biteThe average mortgage repayment has rocketed since late 2021 as the Bank of England, along with other major central banks, began jacking up official interest rates to bring down inflation. (The interest rate on some government bonds is used to set mortgage rates). On Monday, the average rate on a two-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 5.82%, according to data from product comparison website Moneyfacts. “An election is due within the next year and a new government, committed to helping prospective first-time buyers, might start by acknowledging the challenges younger generations face not just in housing but more generally,” the BSA said.
Persons: Liz Truss, Organizations: London CNN, Building Societies Association, BSA, Office, National Statistics, Bank of England, UK Finance Locations: United Kingdom, London, England, Wales
China's consumers and its central bank are snapping up gold, even as a falling yuan makes the metal pricier. AdvertisementChina's central bank has also been buying up gold, in much larger quantities than Gen Z's few grams of beans. Related storiesIn 2023, China's central bank bought 225 tons of gold, per the World Gold Council. The two economies have been jostled in the top spots for years, but China's buying spree last year put India behind. Advertisement"The amount of central bank buying is not justifying gold prices at current levels," she wrote.
Persons: , It's, Georgette Boele Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, People's Bank of China, Gold, World Gold Council, ABN AMRO Locations: China, China's, India, Poland, Singapore, Germany
Cohen & Steers discusses outlook for global interest rates
  + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailReits are pricing in more benign rate-cutting cycle among central banks: Investment management firmRich Hill, head of real estate strategy and research at Cohen & Steers, discusses the real estate sector and the outlook for global interest rates.
Persons: Rich Hill, Cohen & Steers Organizations: Investment, Cohen &
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigher oil prices from escalating Israel-Iran tensions will make the Fed more dovish: StrategistViktor Shvets of Macquarie Capital says "risk is everywhere", and policy makers and central banks will look through risks and supply side disruptions.
Persons: Viktor Shvets, Macquarie Capital Organizations: Macquarie Locations: Israel, Iran
Aussie, New Zealand dollars tumble on risk-off moves; yen rises
  + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar tumbled 0.8% to $0.6370, and the New Zealand dollar fell 0.63% to $0.5864. ABC News reported late on Thursday that Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, citing a U.S. official. The shift in rate expectations has come on the back of a slew of resilient U.S. economic data that has repeatedly surpassed expectations, alongside still-sticky inflationary pressures. "Although policy easing may arrive a bit later than previously expected, we still believe the FOMC will start cutting rates before the year is out," said economists at Wells Fargo. Against a basket of currencies, the greenback rose 0.1% to 106.28, hovering near a more than five-month high of 106.51.
Persons: Carol Kong, I'm, Kazuo Ueda, it'll, CBA's, Jerome Powell Organizations: New, Hamas, U.S ., U.S, New Zealand, ABC News, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: New Zealand, Iran, United States, Japan, South Korea, U.S, CBA's Kong, Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should explore this 'once in a generation' investment opportunity: Lombard OdierJohn Woods of Lombard Odier explains why he sees opportunity in investment grade bonds, especially as central banks get closer to cutting interest rates.
Persons: Lombard, John Woods, Lombard Odier
The Bank of England could still cut interest rates in May, Morgan Stanley has said, in an increasingly rare call of confidence as market sentiment supporting such a move wanes. "We still entertain a May rate cut," chief economist Jens Eisenschmidt told CNBC's "Street Signs" on Wednesday, reiterating the bank's commitment to an earlier call. The Wall Street bank's contrarian view is now some way off consensus, which currently prices in an initial BOE rate cut in September, according to LSEG data. "In general, the central banks are all, to some extent, in the same boat. Morgan Stanley on Monday revised its ECB rate cut forecast, following an earlier revision in its Fed outlook.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt, CNBC's, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Morgan Stanley's, Eisenschmidt, there's Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom, Europe, U.S
Food prices provided the biggest downward drag on the headline rate, the ONS said, while motor fuels pushed it higher. The core figure, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 4.2%, compared with a projection of 4.1%. Services inflation, a key watcher for U.K. monetary policymakers, declined from 6.1% to 6% — again above the expectations of both economists and the BOE. This week, investors have been monitoring signs of a cooling U.K. labor market, with unemployment unexpectedly rising to 4.2% in the period between December and February. The central bank's own forecast is for inflation to "briefly drop" to its 2% target in the spring before increasing slightly.
Persons: BOE, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Organizations: National Statistics, Bank of England, Reuters, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
"When we do the risk assessment around that baseline, the chances that we would have something like a global recession is fairly minimal. The Washington DC-based institute this week nudged its global growth outlook slightly higher to 3.2% in 2024 and projects the same rate in 2025. One of the International Monetary Fund's top economists signals little risk of a global recession, despite the ongoing rumblings of geopolitical uncertainty. That has all combined with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which had its biggest wider impact on energy prices in Europe in 2022. And that's one of the big risks that we do see, the implications that could have for oil prices could be substantial.
Persons: Gourinchas, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Karen Tso, Gita Gopinath, we're Organizations: U.S, IMF, Washington DC, International Monetary, Palestinian, Hamas, CNBC Locations: Europe, New York, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Gaza, Red, Yemeni, Russia, Ukraine, Asia, Israel, Iran
The global economy is approaching a soft landing after several years of geopolitical and economic turmoil, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. But it warned that risks remain, including stubborn inflation, the threat of escalating global conflicts and rising protectionism. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the I.M.F. projected global output to hold steady at 3.2 percent in 2024, unchanged from 2023. The forecasts came as policymakers from around the world began arriving in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank Locations: Ukraine, Washington
LONDON — The Bank of England on Friday announced a "once in a generation" overhaul of its inflation forecasting following a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. The review — initiated following criticism of the central bank's recent policymaking — sets out 12 recommendations which BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank was committed to implementing. They include the scrapping of the Bank's long-held "fan chart" forecasting system and the introduction of a revamped forecast framework. It added that the BoE currently relies more heavily than other central banks on a central forecast, which may not fully account for wider risks or how inflation expectations can become "de-anchored." Additionally, the review said the bank needed to improve its communication with the public, suggesting the it put less emphasis on the central forecast, simplify its policy statement, and reduce repetitiveness."
Persons: Ben Bernanke, , BoE, Andrew Bailey, Bailey Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Federal, CNBC, Monetary, Bank Locations: City, City of London, United Kingdom, U.S
The Federal Reserve should be able to start cutting interest rates by the end of 2024, according to Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund. "We remain on our projection that we would see, by the end of the year, the Fed being in a position to take some action in a direction of bringing interest rates down," Georgieva said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." Fed funds futures pricing data suggests that the first rate cut could come in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Georgieva said the Fed should continue following economic data, which will signal when it's appropriate to begin reducing the cost of borrowing money. Still, Georgieva warned that keeping interest rates elevated for longer than expected can create risks to financial stability for the rest of the world.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, Dow Jones Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, U.S Locations: U.S, United States
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGold rally driven by central banks and high-net worth buyers, says Gabelli's Chris ManciniChris Mancini, Gabelli Gold Fund associate portfolio manager, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss what's driving the price of gold higher, who is buying gold, and what the demand for gold says about investors.
Persons: Gabelli's Chris Mancini Chris Mancini
Why gold prices are at record highsFrom central banks to Costco customers, it seems everyone is buying gold these days, reports CNN’s John Towfighi. Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. The Honest Company posted a strong fourth quarter in March.
Persons: , ” Mark Carney, , GFANZ, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, JPMorgan, CNN’s John Towfighi, China —, Read, Jessica Alba, Ramishah Maruf, Alba’s, Chuck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, European Central Bank, Glasgow Financial Alliance, UN, Bank of England, ECB, MIT, Columbia Business School, Zero Banking Alliance, United Nations, decarbonization, CNN, JPMorgan Chase, State, JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, The Honest, The Honest Company, Honest, Nasdaq Locations: New York, Glasgow, China, India, Turkey
Gold near record high as inflation risk lifts safe-haven appeal
  + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices held steady on Wednesday near a record peak hit in the previous session, as a favourable mix of emerging inflationary risks and ongoing geopolitical tensions underpinned the safe-haven metal. Spot gold was little changed at $2,351.94 per ounce, as of 0339 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,365.09 on Tuesday. Strong central bank buying, safe-haven inflows amid elevated geopolitical risks, and demand from momentum-following funds have fuelled bullion's 14% gain so far this year. Spot silver was little changed at $28.15 per ounce, after hitting its highest levels since June 2021 on Tuesday.
Persons: Soni Kumari, ANZ Kumari Organizations: Co, ANZ, Federal, Fed Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, ., U.S
Gold, typically seen as a haven in periods of economic turmoil, especially as a hedge against inflation, has risen sharply in price over the past month, even as the outlook for the economy has improved and inflation, although still elevated, is well below recent highs. The precious metal has set a series of record highs as it surged roughly $300, to $2,350 per troy ounce, since the start of March. The move has been attributed, at least in part, to a burst of gold buying from central banks around the world, including China. But investors said that central bank purchases did not fully explain such a sudden price increase. “It’s perplexing to anybody in the gold market,” said Chris Mancini, a gold portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds.
Persons: , Chris Mancini Organizations: Gabelli Funds Locations: China
People commuting to work in the morning cross a pedestrian crossing in Tokyo on February 15, 2024. Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell as of Japan's corporate inflation climbed in March and rate decisions are awaited from New Zealand and Thailand's central banks. South Korea's markets are closed Wednesday, as the country heads to the polls to elect its next parliament. Japan's corporate inflation rate came in at 0.8% for March, its third straight month of increase and in line with expectations from a Reuters poll of economists, while investors also brace for the U.S. consumer price index report later Wednesday.
Locations: Tokyo, Asia, Pacific, New Zealand, South
Can China's Comac break up the Airbus-Boeing duopoly?
  + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Nessa Anwar | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
China is on a mission to break up the Airbus -Boeing duopoly and it hopes the domestically made Comac C919 will be its first big break into foreign markets. Made by the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac), the passenger aircraft has been touted as the "dream of a nation" by Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, there are still several hurdles Comac would need to clear before it could take on the French and American aerospace giants' dominance. "As a customer and operator of China's Comac products, we can get financial support from China's import-export bank, and also central banks," Cham told CNBC in an interview. According to Cham, Comac said it would consider creating aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul support for its aircraft in Brunei.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Cham, Comac, Adam Cowburn, Cowburn, Brendan Sobie, It's, Brendan Organizations: Airbus, Boeing, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Cham Chi, CNBC, Alton Aviation Consultancy, " Industry, Sobie Aviation, Airlines Locations: China, American, Brunei, Cham, Shanghai
Investors should stay overweight on commodities with a focus on energy to hedge against inflation as interest rate cuts will likely to come later than originally forecast, according to JPMorgan. Economic growth is also coming in stronger than expected with JPMorgan revising global growth upward by 0.5% in the first half of this year. "However, ongoing growth resilience and sticky inflation raise the odds of fewer cuts," Kolanovic cautioned clients. Kolanovic advised investors to stay overweight on commodities with a focus on energy as oil prices rally. The U.S., however, could tap the strategic petroleum reserve as a countermeasure if the situation escalates and deteriorates further, according to JPMorgan.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Inflation, Kolanovic, Brent Organizations: JPMorgan, Reserve, Russia Locations: U.S, Western Europe, Ukraine, Russia
Why Oil Prices Have Been Rising Recently
  + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Stanley Reed | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Oil prices have climbed in recent weeks, spurred by concerns over supplies and geopolitical risks, including wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, has risen more than 20 percent since mid-December. Rising oil prices could make efforts by central banks to reduce inflation more challenging. Market watchers note that a short-term retreat in prices, after such a rapid rise, is also possible. The oil price also remains below the peaks reached in 2022, when prices jumped well above $100 a barrel.
Persons: , Viktor Katona, Biden Organizations: Analysts, Energy Information Administration Locations: Ukraine, United States
Why gold prices are at record highs
  + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( John Towfighi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. Investors also regard gold as a hedge against inflation, betting bullion will retain its value when prices rise. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. Higher oil prices are likely to stoke concerns over inflation, boosting gold prices, according to the UBS research note.
Persons: China —, Ulf Lindahl, Lindahl, Morgan, JP Morgan, Janet Yellen’s, Yellen, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Wells, Richard Galanti, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, Research Associates, Moody’s, of Commerce, Costco Locations: New York, China, India, Turkey, Central, Wells Fargo
Gold prices on Monday extended their record-breaking run, notching another all-time high amid robust U.S. economic data and elevated geopolitical tensions. Spot gold prices stood mixed to trade at $2,327 per ounce at around 1:45 p.m. London time, after briefly hitting a fresh record of $2,372.5 earlier in the session. But not everyone is convinced gold prices will continue to rally. Investors are looking at the underperformance of gold and therefore increasing exposure to gold. Related to that is actually the gold-bitcoin correlation — and one can get into a debate about whether that's meaningful or not — but the reality is there is a correlation between bitcoin and gold," Parker said.
Persons: Bob Parker, CNBC's, Parker Organizations: Citi, Capital Markets Association Locations: London, Ukraine, Gaza
Some equity funds closely tied to those commodities, such as those that invest in gold and silver miners, have soared even more. Five of the six biggest gold ETFs have seen outflows this year, totaling almost $3 billion, according to FactSet. GLD 5Y mountain Gold, and the ETFs that track it, are trading at record highs in early 2024. The fund's holdings include gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Meanwhile, Teucrium has several ETFs focused on agricultural commodities that have climbed over the past month as well, including the the Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB) , up over 3%.
Persons: Jake Hanley, Hanley, Robert Minter, Minter, Teucrium Organizations: United States Oil Fund, Hershey Locations: East, Europe
“There are,’’ the Bank of England warns, “more consequences from falling prices than meets the eye.’’What could be so bad about lower prices? It is only now emerging from decades of falling prices that began with the collapse of its property and financial markets in the early 1990s. Mainly because falling prices tend to discourage consumers from spending. Why buy now, after all, if you can purchase what you want — cars, furniture, appliances, vacations — at a lower price later? If consumers were to pull back, en masse, to await lower prices, businesses would face intense pressure to cut prices even more to try to jump-start sales.
Persons: they're, that's, what's, Joe Biden's, ’ ’ Lisa Cook, , United States hasn’t, Tom Krisher Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, Bank of England, United, España, Unemployed, Bank of Japan, Fed, Bank for International, AP Locations: America, United States, Japan, Spanish, Detroit
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