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As the frontrunner for the Democratic party's nomination, Kamala Harris will have to run, for better or worse, on President Joe Biden's economic record. It will be just one challenge Harris will have to overcome to defeat her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump . Despite historically low unemployment and macro growth that has defied long-held expectations for recession, the economy is Biden's soft spot. "I don't see a lot of daylight between her views on economic policy and those of the administration," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics , a Democrat who has advised administrations of both parties. Possible change at the Fed One area of difference between Biden and Harris could be a crucial one — the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's, Biden, Harris, Donald Trump, She's, Greg Valliere, she's, There's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, nonfarm, Joseph LaVorgna, Biden's, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell, reappoint Powell Organizations: Democratic, Biden, Republican, AGF Investments, Reuters, Moody's, Democrat, Economic Council, Nikko Securities, Federal Reserve, Senate, Beacon, Advisors Locations: California
He's steering clear of Big Tech stocks, and for now he's only bullish on "dull, boring, and predictable" names. Tech stocks now account for highest portion of the S&P 500 since the early 2000s, according to an analysis from Société Générale. AdvertisementAnother risk to stocks lies in interest rates, Blain said, as borrowing costs look poised to stay higher for longer. "There is an awful lot of people in the financial markets who just don't understand that zero interest rates and ultra-low interest rates are not normal," Blain added. AdvertisementThe final risk Blain is eyeing is the upcoming presidential election, which contains a handful of uncertainties that could batter stocks, Blain said.
Persons: Bill Blain, Blain isn't, , that's, Blain, Biden, he's, Générale, John Hussman, I've, eyeing, We've, Morgan Stanley, Stifel, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Big Tech, Service, China, Nasdaq, Tech, stoke, Richard Bernstein Advisors
The S & P 500 has dropped nearly 2% for the week, putting the broad-market index on pace for its worst weekly performance since April. This market shift has pushed some S & P 500 stocks into overbought territory despite the index's decline. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for the most overbought and oversold names in the S & P 500 based on their 14-day relative strength index, or RSI. Take a look at some of the overbought names: Ford Motor made the overbought list, with the stock scoring an RSI of about 83.2. Other overbought stocks include S & P Global and Republic Services.
Persons: Russell, they've, Goldman Sachs, Pizza, Domino's, Charles Schwab, Wall Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Federal, CNBC Pro, Ford, Super Duty, Gen, Analysts, P Global, Republic Services, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Nike
New York CNN —Stocks are soaring this year, but that could soon change as election chaos takes the market on a rollercoaster ride. But this has been a destabilizing week for US stocks and the market trajectory could be shifting. The Dow was down more than 430 points, or 1%, in the morning trading session on Friday as the tech outage continued to rattle investors. Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said in an interview with Bloomberg that Taiwan should pay for its own defense. The bright sideInvestors have been largely resilient this year and some financial bigwigs say the election won’t change that.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Dow, , , , Jim Reid, Biden, they’re, Scott Wren, Wells, Jerome Powell, Liz Young Thomas, Russell, Young Thomas, ” Trump, CrowdStrike, JPMorgan Chase, Jeremy Barnum, isn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Deutsche Bank, Democratic, , Treasury, Fed, Tech, Bloomberg, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, JPMorgan Locations: New York, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, , China, Taiwan
In today's big story, we're looking at why reports of more potential trade restrictions have chip companies on their heels . Trade restrictions are certainly real concerns for chip companies. AdvertisementThe supply-chain base for most of the chip industry is in Taiwan, specifically TSMC. Politicians and regulators have no interest in making American AI companies less competitive and demand is still extremely high. With so much geopolitical tension, is it possible the chip industry becomes more regionalized?
Persons: , Dan Schneider's, Rebecca Zisser, Joe Biden, Insider's Kelly Cloonan, Biden, chipmakers, Trump, Emma Cosgrove, It's, Marianne Ayala, aren't, Dan Ives, influencers, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Tyler Le, Elon Musk, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Dan Schneider's Nickelodeon, Business, Nvidia, AMD, Bloomberg, China, YouTube, JPMorgan, Apple, Republican National Convention, Netflix Locations: China, Netherlands, Taiwan, Texas, California, New York, London
Read previewThe US hasn't dodged a recession, and the economy is slowing too quickly to nail a soft landing, according to top economist Steve Hanke. AdvertisementM2 money supply has contracted for most of the past two years, and grew by just 0.5% year-over-year in early June, according to Fed data. That compares to early 2021, when the M2 money supply grew at 27% as pandemic stimulus juiced economic activity. The growth rate of the money supply is also well-below the 6% growth rate Hanke estimates is on par with 2% inflation. "The average guy on the street corner knows that if they goose the money supply, you're going to get inflation.
Persons: , Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Julia La Roche, — we've Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Fed, US, New York Fed Locations: New
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday suggested that interest rate cuts are ahead soon as long as there are no major surprises on inflation and employment. "So, while I don't believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted." Keeping with statements from other policymakers, Waller's sentiments point to an unlikelihood of a rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month, but a stronger likelihood of a move in September. "Given that I believe the first two scenarios have the highest probability of occurring, I believe the time to lower the policy rate is drawing closer," Waller said. Williams noted that inflation data is "all moving in the right direction and doing that pretty consistently" and is "getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we're looking for."
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal, Kansas City Fed, Market Committee, CNBC, New York Fed, Wall Street, Fed, Traders
The Fed Under Trump 2.0
  + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Andrew Ross Sorkin | Ravi Mattu | Bernhard Warner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Trumponomics and the FedOne of the hot debates on Wall Street this election cycle is how Donald Trump would deal with the Fed if he is re-elected and, in particular, if he would fire or demote Jay Powell as chair, The Times’s Jeanna Smialek writes for DealBook. In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek conducted before last weekend’s assassination attempt, Trump said that he did not plan to fire Powell, allowing him to serve out his term. Trump appointed Powell, but turned on him over interest rate policy. The former president was displeased when the central banker refused to cut rates to bolster economic growth. President Biden reappointed Powell to a new four-year term that started in 2022.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jay Powell, Smialek, Trump, Powell, it’s, Biden Organizations: Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump
The West could spur Russian inflation by easing sanctions on capital flows, Sergey Aleksashenko says. "Make it easier to depress the value of the ruble, make imports more expensive, and put pressure on Russian bank balance sheets." Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In a collection of policy briefs the think tank put out this month, author Sergey Aleksashenko argued that the West should ease restrictions on Russian capital outflows.
Persons: Sergey Aleksashenko, Organizations: Service, Kremlin, Brookings, outflows, Business Locations: depreciating, Russian, Russia
Villagers watch the sunset over a small lagoon near the village of Tangintebu on South Tarawa in the central Pacific island nation of Kiribati May 25, 2013. CHINESE INTEREST AS WESTERN BANKS EXIT"The proposed World Bank project is a creative way of addressing the challenge of de-risking and small scale in Pacific Island countries," said Lalita Moorty, the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific director for prosperity. Without access to overseas banks, Pacific countries would struggle to receive remittances - a key component of their economies - welcome holidaymakers or trade with the wider world. "It can create instability for the financial system," said Denton Rarawa, senior economics adviser at the Pacific Islands Forum. "What we're saying is that if you're not going to address concerns and issues we have, Pacific countries will start looking elsewhere for support."
Persons: David Gray, Solomon, Lalita Moorty, Denton Rarawa, Mark Brown, Janet Yellen, Ariff Ali, Lewis Jackson, Lucy Craymer, Ziyi Tang, William Mallard Organizations: REUTERS, Villagers, WELLINGTON, Bank, U.S, Pacific Islands, World Bank, Pacific, ANZ Bank, Westpac, Bendigo Bank, Bank of China, Reuters, Cook, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Fiji, Thomson Locations: Tangintebu, South, Pacific, Kiribati, SYDNEY, Australia, China, Washington, Nauru, Solomon Islands, Taiwan, Beijing, U.S, East Asia, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Tonga, Samoa, Brisbane, Pacific Islands, Sydney, Wellington
Green day : A lot was working in the stock market on Friday. But it was hard to see through an ugly rotation out of this year's Big Tech winners in favor of more interest rate-sensitive stocks. Many of our hot tech stocks took a breather this week. It's more evidence of why Jim Cramer calls these two names "own, don't trade" stocks. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Dow, Russell, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Wells Fargo, NII, toolmaker Stanley Black, Decker, Morgan Stanley, That's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Big Tech, Federal, Nasdaq, PPI, Fed, Meta, Nvidia, Apple, Ford, Abbott Laboratories, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Financial, Nurphoto, Getty Locations: Morphic, Wells, New York City, Mairo
It also gave investors the green light to rotate out of this year's tech winners and into rate-sensitive stocks. In other words, we're right back to the market expecting as many as three cuts by the end of the year. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer, toolmaker Stanley Black, Decker, Jim, Price, That's, We've, we've, Jim Cramer's, Eric Thayer Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, PPI, Walmart, Costco, PepsiCo, CPI, U.S, Nasdaq, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Aldi, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Alhambra , California
US stocks climbed Wednesday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high. Traders are waiting on the June inflation report, which will be a key input for Fed policy. Investors are anticipating two rate cuts from the central bank by year-end, per the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Wednesday as traders waited for upcoming inflation data and took in Powell's testimony before Congress. Still, the outlook for Fed rate cuts was little changed.
Persons: , Powell Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq
The rally in stocks could be endangered if the Fed doesn't cut rates soon, Jeremy Siegel warned. The Wharton professor made the case for the central bank to cut rates in September as data softens. AdvertisementThe rally in stocks and the strength of the economy is at risk if the Fed doesn't start cutting interest rates soon, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. No rate cut in September could put a recession on the table, Siegel warned, in addition to endangering the trajectory for stocks. Advertisement"So although I think stocks are still in an uptrend and the growth stocks are still certainly walloping the value stocks, I think Powell has to take note," Siegel said.
Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, , who's, Siegel, Powell Organizations: Service, CNBC, Atlanta Fed, New, Fed
Recent data sets the Fed up to cut interest rates twice this year, JPMorgan's David Kelly said. The bank's chief global strategist predicted Fed rate cuts were coming in September and December. Yet, he warned that stocks are expensive, and investors should be wary of adding exposure at high valuations. The chief global strategist predicted central bankers would begin dialing back interest rates at the September policy meeting, with another cut likely in December. But rate cuts shouldn't be the signal for investors to flock to the stock market, Kelly said.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, , David Kelly, That's, Kelly, We've, John Hussman Organizations: Service, Asset, CNBC
“We’d also like to see the labor market remain strong. For years, the Fed had been watching the job market for a different reason. Officials had worried that if conditions in the labor market remained too tight for too long, with employers fighting to hire and paying ever-rising wages to attract workers, it could help keep inflation faster than usual. But recently, job openings have come down and wage growth has abated, signals that the job market is cooling from its boil. “Future labor market slowing could translate into higher unemployment, as firms need to adjust not just vacancies but actual jobs.”
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, “ We’d, We’ve, Mary C, Daly, Organizations: Wall Street, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting indicated that inflation is moving in the right direction but not quickly enough for them to lower interest rates, minutes released Wednesday showed. "Participants affirmed that additional favorable data were required to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent," the meeting summary said. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation, a level it has been above since early in 2021. Since the meeting, officials have largely stuck to a cautious script stressing data dependency rather than forecasts. However, there have been indications from multiple officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, that continued encouraging readings on inflation would provide confidence that rates can be lowered.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Open Market, Fed Locations: Portugal
CNN —The number of available jobs in the US unexpectedly grew in May, signaling continued resilience in the nation’s labor market. Job openings jumped higher to 8.14 million in May, from a downwardly revised 7.91 million in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released Tuesday. While both hires and job openings rates (as a percentage of total employment) ticked higher for May, the quits rate and layoffs rate were unchanged. The labor market appears to be at a crossroads, Nick Bunker, Indeed Hiring Lab’s head of economic research, wrote in commentary posted Tuesday. But some Fed officials have noted that the job market has lost momentum recently and that it’s highly unclear whether it will continue to hold steady or weaken further.
Persons: Economists, , ” Robert Frick, switchers, David Tinsley, Nick Bunker, ” Bunker, , you’ve, Austan Goolsbee, ” Marisa DiNatale Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Labor, Navy Federal Credit Union, Industries, Bank of America, Bank of America Institute, , Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, European Central Bank, Moody’s, Labor Statistics Locations: Sintra , Portugal
Inflation “now shows signs of resuming its disinflationary trend,” Mr. Powell said on Tuesday at the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. It was an optimistic message after the Fed’s fight against inflation hit a speed bump earlier this year. Fed officials have been waiting to see further progress on inflation before they begin to lower interest rates, which are currently set to their highest level in decades, at 5.3 percent. Mr. Powell declined to say exactly when officials could begin to cut borrowing costs, but suggested that they could lower rates if inflation data continued on its current track or if the labor market weakened. “What we’d like to see is more data like what we’ve been seeing recently,” Mr. Powell said, later adding, “We have the ability to take our time and get this right.”
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Central Locations: United States, Sintra , Portugal
Yet, in a year of elections around the world, politicians are largely ignoring the problem, unwilling to level with voters about the tax increases and spending cuts needed to tackle the deluge of borrowing. In France, political turmoil has exacerbated concerns about the country’s debt, sending bond yields, or returns demanded by investors, soaring. “Many (politicians) are not willing to talk about the hard choices that are going to need to be made. Despite growing alarm over the federal government’s debt pile, neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump, the main 2024 presidential candidates, are promising fiscal discipline ahead of the election. Former Prime Minister Liz Truss triggered a collapse in the pound in 2022 when she tried to force through big tax cuts funded by increased borrowing.
Persons: ” Roger Hallam, Karen Dynan, ” Kenneth Rogoff, , don’t, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Paul Johnson, William Ruto, Liz Truss, hasn’t, Emmanuel Macron, Dynan, it’s Organizations: London CNN, Monetary Fund, Investors, Vanguard, CNN, US Treasury, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, , Congressional, CBO, Trump, Fiscal Studies, United Kingdom, Former Locations: United States, France, Germany, Kenya
Russia's government has spent around half a trillion rubles since 2020 to fund a program offering mortgages at rates as low as 8%. But that program has ushered a wave of Russians into the nation's real estate market, which has sent property prices soaring. Residential property prices in Russia rose to a fresh record in 2023, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. AdvertisementRising property prices are largely attributed to increased housing demand over the past few years. The Bank of Russia also reported "signs of overheating" in the mortgage lending market late last year.
Persons: , Russia's, Elvira Nabiullina, Aleksei Kiselev, Kiselev Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Bank for International, Urban Economics, Bank of Russia, Bank of, Florence School of Banking, Finance, Inflation, Carnegie Endowment, Bank of Russia's Locations: shuttering, Russia, Russian, Bank of Russia
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued to cool as consumer spending grew only moderately, good news for central bankers who have been trying to weigh down demand and wrestle price increases under control. And on a monthly basis, inflation was especially mild, and prices did not climb on an overall basis. The Fed is likely to watch the fresh inflation data closely as central bankers think about their next policy steps. Officials raised interest rates sharply starting in 2022 to hit the brakes on consumer and business demand, which in turn can help to slow price increases. But they have held borrowing costs steady at 5.3 percent since July 2023 as inflation has slowly come down, and have been contemplating when to begin lowering interest rates.
Over the last year, Swift's Eras Tour and its affiliated film cemented her economic prowess in the United States, injecting billions into the economy. AdvertisementLocal businesses are seeing Swift's impact weeks ahead of her concerts. Jo Hale/Getty ImagesEuropean economists monitoring inflation rates in the service sector are examining Swift's tour to see what impact it will have on Europe's economy. Barclays' Consumer Spend research found that Swift's tour is expected to boost the UK economy by £997 million ($1.26 billion). Economist George Moran told the Times, however, that he thinks it's unlikely Swift will impact decision-making at the Bank of England.
Persons: , Taylor, Swift, Taylor Swift's, Ben Julius, Julius, Taylor Swift, Jo Hale, Lucas Krishan, Krishan, Kevin Mazur, George Moran, Moran, Nomura Organizations: Service, Business, Tourist Italy, Wembley, Getty, European Central Bank, Barclays, Consumer, New York Times, Securities, Rights, Bank of England, Times Locations: Europe, United States, Italy, Milan, London, Central, Paris, France
Nvidia had some strong moves in the days after its 10-for-1 stock split traded in the market on June 10. Tuesday brought weaker-than-expected May retail sales , which the stock market took in stride, perhaps on the view that softness helps the view that the Federal Reserve will indeed cut interest rates later this year. Ultimately, the economic readings this past week signal that while U.S. growth remains resilient, things are slowing, which is an ideal setup for stock market bulls. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge and the tail end of earning season will be drivers of the market in the week ahead. ET: New Home Sales Before the bell: General Mills (GIS), Paychex (PAYX), UniFirst (UNF) After the bell: Micron (MU), BlackBerry (BB), Levi Strauss (LEVI) Thursday, June 27 8:30 a.m.
Persons: we're, Levi Strauss, Mills, LEVI, McCormick, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Emily Elconin Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Broadcom, Energy, West Texas, Utilities, Federal, Juneteenth, FedEx, Nike, Micron, UniFirst, UNF, BlackBerry, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Outdoor Brands, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Shoppers, Getty Locations: U.S, Oaks, Novi , Michigan
Read previewThe Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates in the near term is a risky gamble that could drive the US towards a recession, Claudia Sahm told CNBC. "But it's a real risk, and I do not understand why the Fed is pushing that risk. At current readings, that likely means just one rate cut in 2024, the Fed said. For this reason, Sahm told CNBC that the Fed should start a gradual cutting cycle now, and take the economy off a path that could require more severe action if not addressed. Markets, meanwhile, remain convinced that the Fed will follow with more than just one cut.
Persons: , Claudia Sahm, I'm, Sahm, Mohamed El Organizations: Service, CNBC, Business
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