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AI's trillion dollar time bomb
  + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Jasmine Wu | Laura Batchelor | Deirdre Bosa | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAI's trillion dollar time bombThere's a time bomb ticking in the AI space: spending is too high, and returns are too low. Megacaps like Meta, Google and Amazon have seen capex spending surge as they throw cash at building out the infrastructure to stay ahead of the AI game. Microsoft in particular has spent billions at a premium valuation, and shelled out $13 billion investing in OpenAI while Apple was reportedly able to secure a partnership with the startup darling for free just 18 months later. That could be a warning for the broader AI space, as experts sound the alarm on the widening gap between what companies are spending on AI, and what they're getting back from it.
Persons: Apple, they're Organizations: Google, Microsoft
Investors may want to exercise some caution with this year's leading artificial intelligence stocks, according to Bank of America. The investing and ETF strategist anticipates some profit-taking in megacap technology stocks during the second half as investors become "impatient for an AI killer app" or more revenues. Stocks have rallied this year as investors mount bets on popular AI names such as Nvidia and megacap technology. "No one denies the computing power," Woodard wrote. This includes small-cap value stocks, utilities, energy and banks.
Persons: Jared Woodard, Stocks, Woodard Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia Locations: India, Latin America
Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the iPhone maker to $273 per share from $216. Morgan Stanley downgrades BP to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley downgraded the oil major due to "weak earnings." Morgan Stanley reiterates Microsoft as overweight Morgan Stanley said it has "increased clarity" on AI monetization. Citi names KLA Corp. a top pick Citi raised its price target on the semiconductor equipment maker to $980 from $760. Morgan Stanley downgrades Rocket Lab to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley said it sees a "limited catalyst path" for the space company.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Apple, Morgan Stanley downgrades, TD Cowen, Teck, Baird, CARR, Zeta, John Donovan, AAPL, Wells, Tesla, underperform Wells, it's, Evercore, it's bullish, DDOG Organizations: Netflix, Nvidia, Devices, AMD, Citi, Electronic Arts, College Football, BMO, Teck Resources, JPMorgan, Biosciences, Zeta Global, Citi downgrades Bank of New York Mellon, Bank, New York Mellon, Apple, IOL, Amazon, UW, CIO, Susquehanna, Caesars, MGM, PENN, Bank of America, KLA Corp, OW, Department of Defense Locations: 2H24, Dell, Teck, TSLA, Las Vegas
With that in mind, the authors of the note — led by Ryan Hammond — are closely watching downward revenue revisions for signs the AI spending isn't paying off. "Today's hyperscalers will eventually be required to prove that revenues and earnings will be generated from their investments," analysts wrote. "Investors have expressed uncertainty about the return on those investments for the mega-cap tech stocks, but these stocks remain extremely popular," the analysts wrote. Goldman also points out that, according to a measure it tracks, just 5% of companies are currently using AI to produce goods and services. "Adjusting for profits of these companies, the AI capex cycle still pales in comparison to the tech bubble," the analysts wrote.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , they'll, Goldman, Ryan Hammond — Organizations: Meta, Microsoft, Service, Nvidia
As investors navigate this complicated environment, they may turn to research from top-rated Wall Street analysts as they search for stocks with strong balance sheets and solid growth prospects. With that in mind, here are three stocks favored by the Street's top pros, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance. Attractive features like Prime Video, Free Same Day Delivery, Prime Music and Grocery made the Prime membership more attractive to the survey respondents. 1 Large Cap Long," with the survey results backing the company's long-term investment thesis. The analyst expects Twilio to gain from the demand for artificial intelligence-based automated responses that ensure timely and cost-effective customer interaction.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Toshiya Hari, Hari, TipRanks, Mark Mahaney, Mahaney, Amazon's, Grocery, Ivan Feinseth, Twilio, Feinseth Organizations: Micron Technology Chipmaker Micron Technology, MU, Micron, Online, Amazon Retail, Walmart, Amazon Web, North American Retail Locations: FY4Q, U.S
Apple, Nvidia, Qualcomm, AMD, and most other chip designers rely on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to make these crucial components. And its location on the island of Taiwan, which China claims, puts the tech industry and AI's future in a precarious geopolitical position. AdvertisementChris Miller is the author of "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology." When people understand the true significance of TSMC, they're often pretty shocked at how precarious the chip situation is. But suppose you think there's some chance that it happens.
Persons: Chris Miller, we're, TSMC, couldn't, That's, they've, they're, There's, Jensen Huang Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Qualcomm, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Locations: Taiwan, China, Russia, Ukraine, South China, Philippines, Beijing, Taiwan Strait, Washington, Tokyo
Although Micron (MU) has not had Nvidia's meteoric performance, it has been a stellar stock, doubling in the last year and up over 50% in 2024. The AI boom has buoyed memory chips higher as these chips have become a more important component for artificial intelligence accelerators. However, the possibly unrealistic bar now being set for AI earnings reports saw Micron drop more than 7% on high volume. I want to express a short-term bearish view in Micron as I believe further profit-taking will occur in the third quarter. Micron is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world, specializing in high-bandwidth memory and storage chips.
Persons: Long Organizations: Micron, Nvidia, JPMorgan, MU, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: CapEx
"The stock price has lagged but we don't see any other catalysts medium term, hence we are moving to the sidelines." Micron shares were down 5% in the premarket. The analyst reiterated a buy rating on Micron stock with a $175 per share price target, implying nearly 23% upside from Wednesday's $142.36 close. He raised his price target to $158 per share price from $138, calling for 11% upside. Arya maintained a buy rating on Micron stock with a $170 per share price target, or about 19% upside moving forward.
Persons: Vivek Juneja, — Brian Evans, TD Cowen, Cowen, John Blackledge, Keefe, David Konrad, Brian Evans, Christopher Danely, Goldman Sachs, Toshiya Hari, Hari, Vivek Arya, Arya, Caio Ribeiro, Ribeiro, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Micron Technology, Bank of America, Petrobras, JPMorgan downgrades U.S, Bancorp, JPMorgan, U.S . Bancorp, New York Mellon, Bank of New, Bank of New York Mellon, BK, Mellon, Micron, MU, Citi Locations: Brazil, U.S, Bank of New York, CY2025
Investors should consider using the pullback in Micron Technology to snatch up shares, according to several Wall Street analysts. His $175 price target implies upside of more than 22% from Wednesday's close. Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari also viewed the drop as a buying opportunity, citing expectations for growth in AI compute and high-bandwidth memory market share gains. Hari has a price target of $158, signaling 11% upside over the next 12 months. MU 1D mountain Micron shares fall on in-line guidance Wells Fargo's Aaron Rakers reiterated his overweight rating and $190 price target, implying more than 33% upside.
Persons: Christopher Danely, Goldman Sachs, Toshiya Hari, Hari, Harlan Sur, Bernstein, Mark Li, Timothy Arcuri, Wells Fargo's Aaron Rakers, Vivek Arya Organizations: Micron Technology, MU, Micron, UBS, Bank of Locations: Wednesday's, CY25, ramping HBM
Most of the earnings reports — 25 out of 32 portfolio names — were ranked as good or great by the Investing Club. Similar to prior quarters, we grouped company results into one of four categories. Meta Platforms : Sales, earnings and cash flow results all topped expectations . However, sales and earnings both outpaced expectations, as did return on tangible common equity, a key consideration when valuing banks. The company also raised its outlook for full-year earnings growth to 25% year-over-year from 20%.
Persons: we're, Dover, Eli Lilly, Blackwell, Abbott, , Wall, We'll, Morgan Stanley, Nikesh, Stanley Black, Wells, Estee Lauder, Fabrizio Freda, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Hock Tan, Broadcom Lucas Jackson Organizations: Investing, Apple, Services, Broadcom, VMware, Coterra, DuPont, Microsoft, Nvidia, Wynn Resorts, Super, Abbott Labs, Web Services, Constellation Brands, Constellation, Ford, Ford Pro, Wall Street, Alto Networks, Procter & Gamble, TJX, GE Healthcare, Honeywell, Linde, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Dover, China, Eaton, Las Vegas, China's Macao, billings, Wells Fargo,
META YTD mountain Meta stock performance year-to-date. Riding the tech and AI trade, Meta shares closed at a record high of $527 each on April 5. Like Meta, the Google parent is using AI to enhance its consumer platforms and the potential for more advertising dollars . THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: KeyBanc, Meta, Jeff Marks, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Omar Marques Organizations: Facebook, Meta, Gmail, Google, CNBC, Lightrocket, Getty Locations: Meta
Goldman Sachs refreshed its lists of top global stock picks for June by adding some and removing others. The stocks are captured in the investment bank's "Conviction List - Directors' Cut" and seeks to offer investors a "curated and active" list of 15 to 25 buy-rated stocks. The stocks are selected by a group designated by the bank's Investment Review Committee for each region. Here are three of the latest additions to Goldman's directors' cut lists — for Asia-Pacific and Europe — that were given more than 40% upside potential in the next 12 months. Goldman has a target price of 685 New Taiwan dollars ($21.16) on the stock, implying 54.1% potential upside.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Chao Wang, Oil Goldman, Nikhil Bhandari, Phillips, Daniela Costa, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: bank's Investment, EMC, Taiwan Stock Exchange, SmartETFs Asia, New, Oil, Project, bbl, PTT Public Company, Stock Exchange of, Nasdaq, Philips, Euronext Locations: Asia, Pacific, Europe, New Taiwan, Thailand's, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Dutch, Euronext Amsterdam
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndia's private capex will pick up when consumption kicks in, says financial services firmRaamdeo Agrawal of Motilal Oswal Financial Services says private capital expenditure in India will grow when consumption increases.
Persons: Raamdeo Agrawal Organizations: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Locations: India
Capital spending on AI data centers could bring back inflation before boosting economy, BlackRock said. In the short term, AI winners will drive returns up for six to 12 months. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . "Capital spending on AI data centers has boomed since last year's ChatGPT moment," analysts led by Jean Boivin wrote on Monday.
Persons: , Jean Boivin Organizations: BlackRock, Service, Business
India has been dubbed the "perfect" emerging market to invest in, but it can be tricky for those outside the country to gain access. India's stock market has been making headlines this year, and for good reason. "India remains one of the best-performing equity markets this year, underpinned by the world's fastest-growing major economy and a resilient macro backdrop," said James Thom, senior investment director Asian equities at Abrdn, in a note to clients. Some of the top ETFs in North America include the Columbia India Consumer ETF , the First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF and the BMO MSCI India ESG Leaders Index ETF . In Europe, the list includes the iShares MSCI India UCITS ETF , which provides exposure to around 85% of the stock market, and the Xtrackers MSCI India Swap UCITS ETF Capitalisation 1C .
Persons: Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Narendra Modi's, Kevin T, Carter, Goldman Sachs, James Thom, aren't, GDRs, Arjun Jayaraman, there's, Jayaraman, Abrdn's Thom, Surendra Goyal, Thom, EMQQ Global's Carter, Modi's, it's, Jonathan Pines, — CNBC's Ganesh Rao, Tuul, Bruno Morandi Organizations: CNBC Pro, IMF, Bharatiya Janata Party, EMQQ, CNBC, Wealthmills Securities, Global, Causeway, Mutual, Columbia India Consumer ETF, First Trust India, BMO, India, Nasdaq, Investors, Nokia, Bank of America, Citi, Edge, Reliance Industries, U.S ., Bank of India, Network18, Bank, Getty Locations: India, China, North America, Europe, Singapore, U.S, Indian, Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, Mumbai
The bank also raised its price target to $160 from $115, suggesting 18% upside from Wednesday's close. — Michelle Fox 7:59 a.m.: KeyBanc raises Netflix price target Netflix's growth isn't going to slow down any time soon, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets. — Pia Singh 7:23 a.m.: Bank America raises price target on Boeing Bank of America is weighing the challenges and opportunities Boeing has to make a turnaround. She kept her $38 price target, which implies shares could drop just slightly from its latest close. — Pia Singh 5:45 a.m.: Jefferies names Microsoft a top pick Microsoft is "going for AI gold," according to Jefferies.
Persons: Jefferies, Christine Cho, — Jesse Pound, Clark, Anna Lizzul, Kimberly, — Michelle Fox, Justin Patterson, Patterson, — Pia Singh, Ronald Epstein, Epstein, Oppenheimer, Ulta, Rupesh Parikh, Parikh, Morgan Stanley downgrades Corning, Corning, Morgan Stanley, Meta Marshall, Marshall, Tom O'Malley, O'Malley, AVGO, JPMorgan's Harlan Sur, Timothy Arcuri, Brent Thill, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Microsoft, Barclays downgrades NextEra Energy Partners, NextEra Energy Partners, Barclays, Bank of America, Clark Bank of America, KeyBanc, Markets, Netflix, Bank America, Boeing Bank of America, Boeing, Broadcom, VMware, Google, UBS, Jefferies Locations: Kimberly, F2H25
According to data from CryptoQuant, the flow of bitcoin leaving miners wallets for exchanges – which indicates a selling event – reached a two-month high last weekend. Additionally, miner selling through over-the-counter desks saw its biggest daily volume since late March. CryptoQuant shows the hourly transfer of bitcoin from miners to exchanges rose to more than 3,000 bitcoins on June 9. "Daily bitcoin miner revenues stand today at about $35 million, down 55% from their 2024 peak reached in March." That's mostly as a result of "depressed" transaction fees, however, rather than the slashing of miners' block reward at the halving.
Persons: , Mike Colonnese, Wainwright, we're, Bitcoin, Julio Moreno, Moreno, Colonnese, Iris, Iren, They've Organizations: H.C, Iris Energy Locations: CryptoQuant
The plan focuses on Microsoft 365, a popular suite of productivity software used by thousands of businesses. This is a big risk for the company because Microsoft 365 has been an important source of revenue and growth, even without fancy new AI capabilities. The problem was that Microsoft salespeople started to pitch E5 as the last business software suite that customers would need to buy. AdvertisementA "spiritual successor"The generative AI boom, and Microsoft's early lead here, have increased the chances that a new 365 bundle will emerge soon. Microsoft has new AI tools that it can integrate with 365 and use that to persuade customers to upgrade their software bundle.
Persons: , Satya Nadella, Jared Spataro's, Microsoft salespeople, it's, Slack Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Business, Microsoft's Productivity, Processes, Sharepoint, European Commission, EU Locations: Capex
Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's sticking with its overweight rating following the company's Worldwide Developers Conference. Baird reiterates Tesla as outperform Baird said it's sticking with its outperform rating heading into Thursday's shareholder meeting. "We are initiating coverage of Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) with an Overweight rating and $13 PT." We argue the former, initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and $50 TP." Barclays reiterates PepsiCo as overweight Barclays said it's sticking with its overweight rating on the stock despite a bumpy macro in the salty snacks category.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Apple, WWDC, Oppenheimer, Ford, Baird, Tesla, Evercore, Cantor Fitzgerald, Cantor, Piper Sandler, Piper, it's, it's bullish, Bernstein, BTIG, D.A, Davidson, Citi, Uber Organizations: Nets, Apple, JPMorgan downgrades, JPMorgan, Nvidia, Bitdeer, Bitdeer Technologies, Citi, Broadcom, VMware, Barclays, DA, PepsiCo Locations: JPMorgan downgrades Cleveland, Cleveland, Delaware, China
The plan focuses on Microsoft 365, a popular suite of productivity software used by thousands of businesses. This is a big risk for the company because Microsoft 365 has been an important source of revenue and growth, even without fancy new AI capabilities. The problem was that Microsoft salespeople started to pitch E5 as the last business software suite that customers would need to buy. AdvertisementA "spiritual successor"The generative AI boom, and Microsoft's early lead here, have increased the chances that a new 365 bundle will emerge soon. Microsoft has new AI tools that it can integrate with 365 and use that to persuade customers to upgrade their software bundle.
Persons: , Satya Nadella, Jared Spataro's, Microsoft salespeople, it's, Slack Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Business, Microsoft's Productivity, Processes, Sharepoint, European Commission, EU Locations: Capex
Oppenheimer raised its price target on Walmart to $75, reiterating its outperform rating on shares. Goodall's $70 price target implies 32.3% potential upside for the stock, which has advanced 28.2% this year already. His price target of $165, up from $145, implies upside of nearly 22% over the next 12 months. COF YTD mountain — Fred Imbert 5:42 a.m.: Oppenheimer hikes price target on Walmart, supports premium valuation for shares Walmart shares are still positioned for steady outperformance, according to Oppenheimer. Analyst Rupesh Parikh reiterated his outperform rating and lifted his price target by $6 to $75, which suggests shares could climb 11.8%.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Jefferies, Goldman, Didier Scemama, Scemama, — Pia Singh, Goldman Sachs, Toshiya Hari, Jensen Huang, Hari, James Goodall, Goodall, John Hecht, Hecht, Fred Imbert, Rupesh Parikh, Parikh Organizations: CNBC, Walmart, buildout Bank of America, Nvidia, United Airlines, Atlantic, Delta, United, Jefferies, Discover Financial Locations: North America, Taiwan, COF
Goldman Sachs reiterates Nvidia as buy Goldman said it's sticking with its buy rating on the stock. JPMorgan upgrades StoneCo to overweight from neutral JPMorgan said in its upgrade of the fintech solutions company that it has "appealing" potential for earnings growth. Morgan Stanley reiterates JPMorgan as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's even more bullish on the stock after a meeting with company management. " JPMorgan reiterates Alphabet as overweight JPMorgan said the company is on the "offensive in Gen AI." JPMorgan reiterates Broadcom as overweight The firm said it's sticking with its overweight rating on shares of Broadcom.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Tesla, Oppenheimer, DA Davidson, Davidson, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Bernstein, FANG, Redburn, it's bullish, osteogenesis, it's, Robinson, JPMorgan, Disney, Evercore, Moffett, Carvana Organizations: Walmart, Apple, company's, Conference, Nvidia, Energy, Midland shaleco, Endeavor Energy Resources, Airlines, United, Citi, eBay, JPMorgan, BMO, UBS, Mizuho, SEE, P Containers, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Google, Jefferies, DFS, Disney, Netflix, CTV, Broadcom Locations: China, Midland, Rocklin
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures, at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, June 4, 2024. Adnan Abidi | ReutersThis report is from this week's CNBC's "Inside India" newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. Far from rewarding Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party with a supermajority — as polls had predicted — Indians elected 240 BJP lawmakers to India's 543-seat Parliament, which falls short of a simple majority for Modi's party. However, as the largest party, the BJP will form a coalition government thanks to its alliance with smaller parties ahead of the elections. This "radical transformation" is expected to lead to a significantly more efficient economy and help India's currency, according to Sullivan.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Adnan Abidi, Narendra Modi's, Modi, Gavekal, Tom Miller, Udith Sikand, Malcolm Dorson, Aastha Gudwani, who's, India's, Morgan, Ridham Desai, Will, Goldman Sachs, Abhiram Eleswarapu, Eleswarapu, Tanvir Gill, Sri Jegarajah, Sumathi Bala, Seema Mody, Amala Balakrishner, Vinay Dube, could've, James Sullivan, Sullivan Organizations: Indian, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Reuters, CNBC, Global, of America, Gavekal Research, India Active, BNP, CNBC Pro, JPMorgan, U.S . Federal Locations: New Delhi, India, CNBC's
Morgan Stanley reiterates Tesla as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's sticking with its overweight rating heading into the June 13 shareholder meeting. Bank of America reiterates Nvidia as buy Bank of America said it's sticking with its buy rating on shares of Nvidia . "We initiate coverage on Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) with a Buy rating and 12-month price target of $169." Needham reiterates Coinbase as buy Needham said it's sticking with its buy rating on Coinbase . "We are initiating coverage of LFMD with an Overweight rating and $12 price target."
Persons: it's, ODFL, Morgan Stanley, Tesla, Elon, Gordon, Gordon Haskett, Oppenheimer, Uber, Guggenheim, Goldman, Bernstein, Needham, Coinbase, Raymond James, Meta, Key Organizations: BMO, Dominion, Bank of America, Nvidia, Barclays, Taiwan Semiconductor, Boston Beer, Materials, Applied Materials, JPMorgan, Citi, Apple, Apple's Worldwide, Conference, Disney, Walt Disney, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, EV, Meta, HSBC Locations: TSMC, China, U.S, CY25
We asked the pros which are the best stock alternatives to Nvidia that are still cheap. Meta Meta remains a good investment at its current price, said Adam Coons, portfolio manager at Winthrop Capital Management. In 2025, that revenue growth is set for a 12% increase and earnings growth for 15%. That would put Meta's multiples at 26 times 2024's earnings and 23 times 2025's earnings, according to Coons. Meta is trading at a 19 times EV/EBIT multiple, versus Microsoft's 28 times, and Nvidia's 25 times.
Persons: Adam Coons, it's, Coons, Qualcomm Angelo Zino, Zino Organizations: Nvidia, Nasdaq, U.S . Federal, Winthrop Capital Management, CNBC Pro, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Big, Google, Gemini, Qualcomm, CFRA Research, Micron Micron, Micron Locations: Big Tech, China
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