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☆ Analysis: Why we may need a stock market plunge to solve the debt ceiling crisis
  + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
They know how it ends: with politicians waiting until the last minute before giving in and finally raising the debt ceiling before disaster strikes. On Friday, it looked like the White House and Republicans were getting closer to a deal on the debt ceiling before talks unexpectedly broke down. In 2011, the most serious near-default in American history, markets experienced volatility in the days and weeks before Washington reached a last-minute deal to raise the debt ceiling. None of this is to say markets are completely ignoring the debt ceiling drama today. The debt ceiling is a manufactured crisis that officials could have dealt with months ago.
☆ This chart shows the fastest-rising costs for Social Security beneficiaries
  + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Lordhenrivoton | E+ | Getty ImagesHigh inflation 'extremely difficult' for retireesSocial Security COLAs have increased by 78% since 2000, according to The Senior Citizens League. At the same time, the cost of goods and services retirees typically buy has gone up by 141.4% over that time. Yet the current 36% loss in buying power is still one of the deepest losses recorded, according to the group. Eggs topped the list of fastest-growing costs for seniors since 2000. While higher spending may complicate the fight against higher inflation, it is delayed relief for older Americans, whose COLA was lower than price growth in 2022.
☆ Column: Inflation and the markets take a bite out of retirement confidence
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Mark Miller | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
But persistent inflation and last year’s sharp stock market decline have shaken the confidence of American workers and retirees about their retirement prospects in a way not seen since 2008. That is the key finding of the 2023 Retirement Confidence Survey - the longest-running survey of its kind measuring worker and retiree confidence. But inflation affects everyone, and it is a constant risk factor in retirement plans - even when it is not making headlines. For starters, most retirees depend on Social Security for a substantial portion of retirement income - and it comes with built-in inflation protection. This year, the COLA was a whopping 8.7%, the largest inflation adjustment in four decades.
☆ MLB roundup: White Sox surge past Rays, snap 10-game skid
  + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +12 min
[1/6] Apr 30, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Andrew Vaughn (25) watches his game-winning three-run home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the ninth inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Christian Bethancourt added a solo homer and two RBIs. Orioles 5, Tigers 3Adam Frazier and Jorge Mateo hit solo home runs and visiting Baltimore continued its dominance of Detroit. Evan Phillips closed out the ninth inning to earn his third save. Reliever Zack Thompson (1-2) allowed two runs on one hit and two walks while retiring just two batters.
☆ Markets are ignoring recession signals because a downturn might actually ease a handful of problems facing stocks
  + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Today we're diving into how a recession could affect the stock market — and why it may not be all bad in the eyes of investors. Traders gather on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, March 18, 2016. Markets so far this year haven't acted like they're too concerned about a recession, and that's no accident, according to DataTrek Research. : Sticky, high prices have weighed on stocks, but a slowdown would alleviate this. Falling productivity in the labor market: A recession could stop companies from hoarding workers, which could improve profit margins.
☆ Record earnings by Q4 just won't happen this year: DataTrek's Nicholas Colas
  + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecord earnings by Q4 just won't happen this year: DataTrek's Nicholas ColasDataTrek Research co-founder Nick Colas joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his take on the volatility index, earnings outlook, and his read on investor sentiment.
☆ Why markets actually could be hoping for a recession this year
  + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Markets are not only acting unafraid of a looming recession but also may actually want one that would eradicate some of the other ills facing the U.S. economy, according to one Wall Street analysis. Wall Street economists and strategists widely expect a recession to set in later this year, the product of a number of factors. "Stocks bottom before the US economy hits its lows in any given recession because markets understand this dynamic," Colas wrote. "Markets know this history, which is why they see an upcoming recession as finally bringing the Fed around to starting the next easing cycle," Colas said. "There are other pathways to achieve those necessary goals, but none will work as quickly as an economic contraction.
☆ With the banking crisis on hold, the Fed is back to fighting inflation
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
The Federal Reserve's policy pendulum has swung back to inflation fighting. "The view is based on banking sector stress remaining contained, the economic expansion continuing and core inflation remaining stubbornly high." A cooling crisis Indeed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bankers in late February and early March were indicating chances of half-point rate hikes . Watching the banks, and the market To be sure, the banking situation remains in flux and could yet shape Fed policy. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy moves, has jumped about half a percentage point over the past two weeks.
☆ Type 2 diabetes: Coffee, tea lower risk of heart disease and early death
  + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Sandee Lamotte | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —If you have type 2 diabetes, drinking more coffee, tea or plain water may lower your risk of dying prematurely from any cause by about 25%, a new study found. However, drinking more sugar-sweetened beverages raised the risk of heart disease by 25% and the risk of dying from a heart attack or another cardiovascular event by 29%, the study said. Adults with type 2 diabetes who drink more coffee or tea lower their risk of heart disease, a new study said. There was a 26% lower risk of early death associated with drinking coffee, 21% for tea, 23% for plain water and 12% for low-fat milk. When both sugar-sweetened and artificial no-calorie drinks were replaced with coffee, tea, plain water and low-fat milk, there was an even lower risk of heart disease and death from any cause.
☆ The US dollar's recent slide is flashing a bullish signal for markets
  + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The US dollar's recent decline is a bullish signal for global markets, DataTrek reports. Since its September peak, the US Dollar Index has fallen by 11.3%. "A weaker dollar at this point in the global economic cycle is both consistent with the past and a generally bullish sign about the future," he wrote. It is, however, how markets signal better times to come." Historically, the US Dollar Index, which compares the greenback's strength to a basket of currencies, spikes in moments of economic crises, such as in 2009 and 2022.
☆ Strategists are gloomy going into the start of first quarter earnings season
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
I noted last week that following a strong first quarter (S & P up over 7%), the S & P 500 almost invariably is up even more by the end of the year. For the most part, the strategist community is fairly gloomy going into first quarter earnings season and the prospects for further gains in 2023. He too noted that the S & P 500 is now "within spitting distance" of his year-end price target of 4,200 and announced Tuesday he was shifting direction. Indeed, it looks like a race to the bottom to see who can claim the mantle of "lowest estimate on the Street" for full-year 2023 earnings. 2023 earnings: the trough is Q1 Q1: $50.63 Q2: $54.13 Q3: $56.84 Q4: $58.32 Source: Refinitiv That works out to $219.83, just a tad above the $218.09 that 2022 printed.
☆ 3 signals that show a US recession is farther away than most investors think
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Recent economic data suggests a US recession is farther away than most investors think. A rebound in gasoline demand and calmness in the bond market are sending bullish signals about the economy. Gasoline demand has reboundedDemand for gasoline in the US turned positive in March, jumping 3.8% year-over-year. The rebound in gasoline demand has been buoyed by a near 20% decline in gasoline prices. The rebound in gasoline demand is a reversal of recent trends, as gasoline demand was consistently tracking below the prior year's levels.
☆ MLB roundup: Rays improve to 8-0 with rout of A's
  + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +11 min
Springs scattered three hits, struck out seven and walked three while logging seven innings. The Astros rallied in the ninth on Jeremy Pena's two-run homer against Jovani Moran. Adam Duvall blasted a two-run homer and a pair of doubles while scoring three times. Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar each hit two-run homers for the Mets, who have won five of six games against the Marlins. Perdomo had three RBIs and two hits as Arizona racked up season highs for runs and hits (17).
☆ MLB roundup: Rays beat A's to stay undefeated
  + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +10 min
Stroman has allowed two runs and 17 hits over 32 innings while winning each of his last five home starts. Ji Hwan Bae, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Connor Joe each had an RBI double, and Oneil Cruz and Jason Delay hit RBI singles for the Pirates. Pittsburgh starter Rich Hill allowed seven runs and eight hits in four innings. Alex Cobb (0-1) was the hard-luck loser for the Giants after holding the Royals to two runs on seven hits in seven innings. Kershaw (1-1) took the loss after allowing four runs on seven hits in six innings.
☆ This isn’t a 2008-style financial crisis but stocks could still crash 25%, SoFi’s top strategist says
  + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Today I'm eager to share this week's conversation with a top investment strategist who's anticipating trouble ahead for the economy. In the financial crisis, it was down 58% from peak to trough. I do not think that this is a repeat of the financial crisis. Investors should brace for an earnings recession and continued financial uncertainty, chief investment officer Mike Wilson explained. A crisis in the financial sector has rattled investors but markets look poised to avoid a crash.
☆ Markets and the economy survived a tough first quarter, but it's not going to get any easier
  + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
Despite peaks and valleys, stocks closed the first quarter on an up note, with the S & P 500 rallying more than 7% and the tech-fueled Nasdaq soaring about 16%. .SPX .DJI YTD line S & P 500 gains so far in 2023 Indeed, the market has lived through a lifetime of scary headlines in the first three months of 2023. Despite repeated protestations from Fed officials that they are taking the higher-for-longer approach on interest rates, markets still expect cuts. AAPL .SPX YTD mountain Apple compared to the S & P 500 Only five of the 11 S & P 500 sectors are positive for the year, despite the substantial rally for the index. The net profit margin for the S & P 500 also is expected to edge lower to 11.2%.
☆ The Nasdaq 100 just entered a fresh bull market - and a top analyst says tech names look like the new safety trade
  + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Those rate forecasts have bolstered tech names, and mega-caps like Apple and Microsoft have pulled the Nasdaq higher. "While it sounds like Twilight Zone comment to many investors, tech stocks have become the new safety trade with Big Tech names a major beneficiary of this dynamic," Ives, a managing director and senior equity research analyst at Wedbush, wrote in a note. "And these tech stocks have been under owned and still remain in that camp in our opinion." Short sellers generated paper profit of $14 billion betting against bank stocks over the last month. Shorting bank names in March produced a "wide swath of profitable trades that returned +17.2% in less than a month," S3 Partners said.
☆ A key recession indicator suggests the Fed may slash rates soon
  + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
There's another bond market signal flashing and it could mean the Fed's about to step in. The Fed raised short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point as expected today, with market watchers expecting one more increase this year and three more in 2019. But there are other bond market signs, too, and the recent rally in bonds at the shorter-term end of the Treasury curve may just be the indicator with the most troubling track record. In effect, the bond market is telling us that the Fed could be on the brink of making a policy pivot as the economy falters. Investors are shifting focus back to the Fed's thinking on interest rates, with a PCE inflation update due Friday.
☆ The Nasdaq just entered a bull market as the Fed fuels tech stocks toward their 2nd-best quarter in a decade
  + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The Nasdaq 100 entered a bull market on Wednesday, rallying more than 20% from its December low. The Nasdaq has gained 17% in the first three months of 2023, with a few days left in the first quarter. The last time the Nasdaq 100 entered a bull market was in April 2020, a quarter that also marked the best stretch in the last decade. Signs of financial stress historically have prompted investors to buy more stocks, according to a Thursday note from DataTrek Research. DataTrek highlighted that the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress index reading is currently in the same ballpark as it was in July and August of 2002, as well as October 2011 — two similar periods of financial stress.
☆ Bond markets are flashing a recession signal that suggests the Fed may be about to step in to quickly cut rates
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The bond market is flashing a recession signal that suggests the Fed will quickly cut rates. That's due to the large jump in short-term Treasuries, which the Fed has previously responded to by cutting rates. In all of these cases, the Fed moved quickly to cut interest rates – which suggests the signal's reappearance could be an omen for markets. "The default scenario baked into asset prices is based on the Fed pivoting - quickly - to lowering policy rates. Central bankers have raised interest rates aggressively over the past year to lower inflation, with the fed funds target rate at 4.75-5%, the highest rates have been since 2007.
☆ Pepsi has a new logo
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Danielle Wiener-Bronner | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
New York CNN —If someone were to ask you to draw the Pepsi logo from memory, what would you draw? Pepsi has changed its logo over the years. The “Pepsi” in the logo “is decoupled from the globe,” noted Todd Kaplan, Pepsi’s chief marketing officer. Pepsi says that the changes its making are distinctive enough to do the trick, and highlight modern elements like Pepsi’s zero-sugar line. To highlight the zero line, the new logo uses black font and a black border, a nod to Pepsi Zero’s black can and label.
☆ A recession is guaranteed this year based on Jerome Powell's favorite bond-market gauge
  + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's preferred bond-market indicator says a recession is on the way this year. It's the spread between the yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months. The spread between the current yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months is now inverted by a record 134 basis points. The Fed's messaging, however, contrasted with market expectations, as Powell said interest rates will still remain elevated through the year. "If the US economy continues to rumble along as it has the last few quarters, interest rates will remain high," DataTrek Research's cofounder, Nicholas Colas, wrote in a note Thursday.
☆ Spring training roundup: Max Fried stays unbeaten, Braves blank Twins
  + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
Ozuna's home run -- his first of the spring -- came in the third inning and completed the scoring. Twins starter Kenta Maeda (0-1) gave up five runs (all earned) and five hits in four innings. For the Blue Jays, starter Alek Manoah (1-2) gave up one run and five hits in six innings. Rockies 7, Royals (split squad) 0 (six innings)German Marquez tossed five shutout innings as visiting Colorado blanked Kansas City in Las Vegas. Elehuris Montero and Michael Toglia went deep for the Rockies, while Matt Beaty doubled for the Royals' only extra-base hit.
☆ Bank turmoil drags oil prices down to 15-month low
  + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Banking chaos is weighing on oil prices, as crude benchmarks hit their lowest levels since December 2021. Fed policy and US and European bank turmoil have darkened the global economic outlook in the last week. A week ago, the US benchmark was nearly 12% higher, and global crude traded about 11% higher. On Friday, regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank, and two days later did the same to Signature Bank. "That, and lower oil prices/interest rates may soften the economic blow of tighter lending standards."
☆ Silicon Valley Bank and inflation complicate the Fed’s next move
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Everyday now we've been talking about Silicon Valley Bank — SVB — and I've had to catch myself several times from saying SBF — Sam Bankman-Fried — the guy behind the other big financial collapse in recent months. A) No rate hike at allB) 25 basis pointsC) 50 basis pointsTweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know. Bank stocks are rising again as nerves calm — though SVB-driven fears are still niggling. Bank of America picked out a batch of financial stocks that offer upside right now amid the chaos. The token soared 15% as the February CPI print fueled more speculation for a smaller rate hike.
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