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☆ Dollar steady as investors await economic data, Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was mostly flat on Tuesday as investors awaited slew of economic data this week along with minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting that will shed light on the Central bank's thinking around interest rates and inflation. The index rose 8% last year in its biggest annual jump since 2015 on the back of the Fed raising interest rates to tackle inflation. The dollar is likely to consolidate as "market activity gradually picks up this week," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore. After delivering four consecutive 75 basis points hikes, the U.S. Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points last month. The minutes of the December meeting is due to be released on Wednesday, with investors looking for cues on what path the Fed is likely to take in 2023.

☆ Indian rupee ends 2022 as worst-performing Asian currency
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee ended 2022 as the worst-performing Asian currency with a fall of 11.3%, its biggest annual decline since 2013, as the dollar rocketed on the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy stance to tame inflation. Most traders and analysts expect the currency to move between a tight 81.50-83.50 range in the first quarter. Equity inflows would be a key metric to watch for the rupee for foreign investors as well, analysts said. But considering several uncertainties heading into 2023, such as tight monetary policy conditions, likely recession in some economies and an ongoing geopolitical conflict, gauging the direction of share markets had become tough, they added. If we get a selloff in Indian shares, I'll be less optimistic on the rupee," said Christopher Wong, FX strategist at OCBC Bank.

☆ Dollar powers through, eyes best year since 2015
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, has surged more than 8% this year, the most since 2015. "I expect the king dollar to lose its crown and the dollar to make a more decisive turn by the middle of next year," Bank of Singapore currency strategist Moh Siong Sim said. It has fallen more than 13% year to date, its worst performance since 2013. The single currency had dipped below parity against the dollar earlier this year for the first time in almost two decades. The kiwi , which has fallen more than 7% year to date, the worst since 2015, slipped 0.31% to $0.6330.

☆ Dollar eyes best year since 2015; Fed rate path, China reopening to set tone
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, has surged more than 8% this year, the most since 2015. But expectations that the central bank may not have to raise rates as high as previously feared have caused the greenback to unwind its towering rally. Conversely, an ultra-dovish Bank of Japan in the face of a hawkish Fed, has spelled pain for the Japanese yen . Policymakers from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have signalled more rate hikes to come next year, in a bid to tame inflation even at the risk of hurting their economies. "The issue is whether the rapid reopening (in China) triggers fresh waves in some countries or regions, and that may lead to fresh restrictions.

☆ Gold gains on dollar weakness as China relaxes COVID curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Arundhati Sarkar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,809.20 per ounce by 1136 GMT. A weaker dollar also makes the greenback-denominated bullion less expensive for other currency holders. "Gold was weaker for most of 2022 amid aggressive tightening of monetary policies, rising real yields and dollar strength. "Sustained recovery in gold prices is possible if Fed pivots." In other metals, spot silver rose 1.6% to $24.09 per ounce, platinum gained 0.4% to $1,025.32, while palladium jumped 1.9% to $1,797.00.

☆ Dollar retreats as risk appetite improves; Australia, NZ currencies rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

China will stop requiring inbound travellers to go into quarantine on arrival starting Jan. 8, the National Health Commission said on Monday, even as COVID cases spike. At the same time, Beijing downgraded the regulations for managing COVID cases to the less strict Category B from the top-level Category A. "There seems to be no let-up in the pace of relaxing COVID restrictions despite the surge in COVID cases in the mainland," said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC. "It's worth remembering that the dollar rose in each of the past four years in January. "While ... (the) policy tweak has added uncertainty to the BOJ outlook, we continue to lean toward BOJ policymakers making no further policy adjustments through the end of 2023," said analysts at Wells Fargo.

☆ Dollar flat as investors digest China's loosening of COVID rules
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was flat on Tuesday after China said it would scrap its COVID-19 quarantine rule for inbound travelers - a major step in reopening its borders, even as COVID cases spike. At the same time, Beijing downgraded regulations for managing COVID cases to the lighter Category B from the top-level Category A. "There seems to be no let-up in the pace of relaxing COVID restrictions despite the surge in COVID cases in the mainland." Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.0640. With UK markets closed for a public holiday, trading in sterling was muted, leaving the pound down against the dollar at around $1.2031.

☆ Gold eases off one-week high as dollar regains some ground
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold jewelry at a store ahead of the festival of Diwali in New Delhi, India on Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022. Gold prices inched lower on Wednesday from a one-week high hit in the previous session, as the dollar regained some ground, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Spot gold fell 0.2% at $1,814.74 per ounce as of 0330 GMT, after rising more than 1% on Tuesday following a dip in dollar. "Rate hikes typically weigh on gold but as we enter into late cycle of Fed tightening, gold can recover, said OCBC FX strategist Christopher Wong. "However, a more material recovery in prices would require more than just a calibration in Fed tightening, probably need the Fed to pause and perhaps cut rates."

☆ Bank of Japan makes surprise policy tweak
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

ATUSHI TAKEDA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ITOCHU ECONOMIC RESEARCH, TOKYO:"Today's move reflects the BOJ's determination not to alter its yield cure control policy. CAROL KONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY:"I think the move was certainly unexpected, to say the least. MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE:"They've widened the band, and I guess that came earlier than expected. CHRISTOPHER WONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, OCBC, SINGAPORE:"The timing of the policy tweak is a surprise, though we have been expecting the move to come in 2Q 2023. "The tweak may seem modest but is significant for a central bank that has held dovish for a long time.

☆ Bank of Japan reviews yield-curve control policy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Dec 20 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan has slightly loosened the shackles on its 10-year yield target and said it will review its yield-curve control policy, surprising financial markets and sending the yen sharply higher. However, it is only a first step and yield-curve control (YCC) remains in place, as does negative rate strategy. CAROL KONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY:"I think the move was certainly unexpected, to say the least. MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE:"They've widened the band, and I guess that came earlier than expected. CHRISTOPHER WONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, OCBC, SINGAPORE:"The timing of the policy tweak is a surprise, though we have been expecting the move to come in 2Q 2023.

☆ Dollar slips on recession fears; central bank meetings loom
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar eased on Friday as worries over a slowdown in the United States mounted, with traders on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week, where the Federal Reserve takes centerstage. Against the greenback, the euro rose nearly 0.5% overnight and edged toward a six-month peak hit at the start of the week. It was last 0.23% higher at $1.0579, and is on track for a third straight week of gains. Sterling similarly eked out a small gain overnight and last rose 0.23% to $1.22695, not far off Monday's six-month high of $1.2345. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will also announce their monetary policy decisions next week, with markets keenly watching for guidance on 2023's outlook.

☆ Dollar slips on recession fears, c.bank meetings loom
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Against the greenback, the euro rose nearly 0.5% overnight and edged toward a six-month peak hit at the start of the week. It was last 0.23% higher at $1.0579, and is on track for a third straight week of gains. Sterling similarly eked out a small gain overnight and last rose 0.23% to $1.22695, not far off Monday's six-month high of $1.2345. An inversion of this yield curve is typically a precursor to recession.

☆ Gold inches lower as dollar ticks up
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Gold prices eased on Thursday as the dollar recovered slightly, while market participants await further direction on U.S. rate hikes from the Federal Reserve meeting next week. Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,783.50 per ounce, as of 0248 GMT, after rising more than 1% on Wednesday supported by a pullback in the dollar and U.S. bond yields. The dollar might get weaker and this will anchor gold a bit," Spivak said. Spot silver inched 0.6% lower to $22.60, platinum lost 0.2% to $1,000.67 and palladium was flat at $1,844.20.

[1/2] Banknotes of Chinese yuan and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 29, 2022. Yet the euro was flat against the dollar at $1.048, after falling 0.2% in the previous session. In Asia, China's yuan firmed as the government announced measures that marked a sharp change to its tough, three-year-old zero-COVID policy that has battered its economy and sparked historic protests. "Anticipation of further easing of measures in China should continue to favour RMB (and) RMB-linked assets." "China's reopening will be bumpy in coming months and economic data will likely get worse before it gets better."

☆ Dollar in demand as growth outlook darkens, yuan up as China eases curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Against the dollar, sterling was last 0.03% lower at $1.2131, after falling 0.4% overnight. It's part of our baseline," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index edged 0.07% higher to 105.62. The onshore yuan was last more than 0.2% higher at 6.9771 per dollar. "Anticipation of further easing of measures in China should continue to favor RMB (and) RMB-linked assets."

☆ Gold eyes best week since March on hopes of less aggressive Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Gold prices eased on Friday, but were set for their biggest weekly gain in more than eight months, as U.S. data pointing to slowing inflation boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve would slow its aggressive rate hikes. The dollar index steadied after Thursday's fall but was headed for its biggest weekly drop since March 2020. U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in October, indicating that inflation was slowing, which raised hopes that the Fed will begin scaling back its hefty rate hikes. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

"There's a growing perceived chance that the Fed will be the last major central bank to throw in the towel and arrest its tightening cycle," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING. U.S. payrolls data released later on Friday will provide the latest indication of the health of the U.S. economy. In contrast, Friday data showed euro zone business activity contracted last month at the fastest pace since late 2020. CHINA HOPESFriday's 'risk on' move in currencies, as well as commodity and share markets, followed reports China could relax its anti-COVID restrictions, which have been hobbling economic activity. "CNH (the yuan traded offshore) will tell you if investors are running hot or cold in China markets.

☆ Yuan jumps, dollar pauses, sterling claws back some ground
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The offshore yuan jumped more than 1% in the Asia session to a one-week peak of 7.2441 per dollar, and last traded 7.2621. But traders said the most potent boost to the yuan came from speculation that China could relax anti-COVID restrictions,which have been hobbling economic activity. And as is typically the case, this type of 'risk on' move indicated by the yuan will have a magnetic attraction across Asia markets." The Australian dollar rose 0.86% to $0.6342, further buoyed by the positive sentiment on China, as the Aussie is often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan. DOLLAR DOMINANCEFed rate futures now point to a terminal rate of about 5.15% by mid-2023, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point this week.

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