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The unemployment rate jumped in July, and there is a detail in the data that has alarmed some economists. So-called marginally attached workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, are those who are available to work and want a job, but have not searched for a job in the four weeks preceding the survey. Bustamante assessed marginally attached workers plus unemployed workers as a group, which the BLS refers to as U-6. "That's a warning sign" for the labor market, he said. It is a sign that people want a job, but are having a hard time finding a job, he said.
Persons: Alí Bustamante, Bustamante, Kamala Harris, Nick Bunker Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Worker Power, Economic Security, Roosevelt Institute, Finance, North Locations: New York City, North America
As the Fed lowers rates this year, mortgage rates are expected to go down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 5.99% this week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is an eight-basis-point decrease from the previous week. Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which may happen this year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Persons: , Freddie Mac Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Zillow, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Chevron
Why the stock market is freaking out again
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The Dow tumbled more than 1,000 points at the open, and the broader market plunged 3% Monday. The Nasdaq, full of risky tech stocks, dropped 3.7%. Although that’s not in and of itself an unhealthy unemployment rate, its sudden march higher is alarming: Last year, the unemployment rate was at its lowest level since the moon landing. Traders are beginning to unwind big trades on Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and other tech stocks that had been surging since the beginning of last year. Monday’s rout, if it ends at current levels, wouldn’t even crack the top 100 worst days in market history.
Persons: Dow, that’s, Goldman Sachs, That’s, Jeremy Siegel, , , Siegel, Stocks, it’ll, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: CNN, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Citigroup, JPMorgan, CNBC, Traders, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Berkshire Locations: Wall
Some have called for emergency interest rate cuts this week as a result. The Federal Reserve has only cut rates off-cycle in extreme emergencies, like 9/11 and COVID-19. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Investors are panicking, and they're calling for the nation's central bank to cut interest rates over a month before the Fed's next meeting.
Persons: Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Investors, of Labor Statistics, Business
What it means to have a ‘Black job’ in America
  + stars: | 2024-08-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Still, the discussion comes as Black workers have made significantly positive — and, in many cases, historic — employment advancements. “So, to suggest that immigration is lowering the black employment rate is just not bearing out, based on this superficial look at the facts,” Algernon said. The pandemic recovery and economic expansion since has resulted in wage gains for many workers, and that has included Black workers, she noted. “We talk a lot about the 2-to-1 ratio between Black and White unemployment (the Black unemployment rate typically is twice the White unemployment rate), so, the progress has been marginal in terms of that disparity.”In July, the unemployment rate for White workers was 3.8% (versus 6.3% for Black workers). “For example, according to BLS data, Black workers are just 12.8% of all employed Americans, but 48.4% of postal service workers, 38.1% of nurse assistants, and 36.1% of security guards,” Pollak said.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , Algernon Austin, ” Algernon, there’s, that’s, It’s, Valerie Wilson, ” Wilson, , Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, ” Pollak Organizations: CNN, National Association of Black Journalists, Black, Center for Economic, Research, of Labor Statistics, Baby Boomers, BLS
AdvertisementSt. Louis FedDespite the Sahm Rule's impressive history, it is sometimes criticized because it fails to account for rising labor participation, which can raise the unemployment rate. In addition to downcast labor market data, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell further into contraction territory this week, signaling that US manufacturing continues to slow. The market's direction also depends on how investors interpret interest rate cuts alongside future data. Fed funds rate futures markets are now pricing in a 50-basis-point cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementHartnett and his team analyzed Fed rate-cutting cycles and identified three different types of rate cuts — cuts into a soft landing, cuts into a hard landing, and panic cuts, which are due to a credit event or some sort of Wall Street crisis.
Persons: , Claudia Sahm —, Louis Fed, Piper Sandler, Tom Essaye, Jack McIntyre, Lara Castleton, Janus Henderson, Michael Kantrowitz, we've, Kantrowitz, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Labor, Brandywine Global, ISM, Nasdaq, Fed, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Bank of America, Fund
Mortgage rates are down in response to the labor market slowing. Average 30-year mortgage rates are now hovering in the low 6% range, according to Zillow data, the lowest they've been since January 2024. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowToday's refinance ratesMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. This is a significant slowdown compared when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022, which means mortgage rates should start trending down soon. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: U.S, Chevron
Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva make an emotional return to the U.S. Simone Biles and Katie Ledecky add to their Olympic medal collections. Jamie Squire / Getty ImagesBiles won gold in the women’s all-around gymnastics final, reclaiming her 2016 title and becoming the first American to win the Olympic all-around gold medal more than once. Brazil’s Rebeca Andrade won silver, and American Suni Lee, who won the all-around gold medal three years ago in Tokyo, took home the bronze. Katie Ledecky made Olympic history when she won a silver medal in the women's 4x200m freestyle relay final on Thursday. The battle intensifies to define HarrisIt goes without saying that Vice President Kamala Harris’ path to de-facto Democratic presidential nominee has been unprecedented.
Persons: Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan, Alsu, Simone Biles, Katie Ledecky, Sonya Massey, Biden, Harris, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Alsu Kurmasheva, Whelan, Gershkovich, Kurmasheva, , Vladimir Kara, Murza, Antony Blinken’s, Sergei Lavrov, Suni Lee, Jamie Squire, Biles, Brazil’s Rebeca Andrade, Maddie Meyer, Peacock, Read, rance, wimmer, ▶️, ure, Ana l, J uly, dow, ros, Pres, ena, Gray, ood, Joh, edd, maki, abou, , in Organizations: U.S, Russia, Marine, Joint Base Andrews, Wall Street, Radio Free, Radio Liberty, Paris, unt, pla, us. Locations: Maryland, Germany, U.S, Russia, Slovenia, Norway, Poland, Radio Free Europe, Berlin, Paris, American, Tokyo, Belgium
But you're going to struggle if you're looking for a new one. "Even a few months ago, the labor market seemed fine, the trajectory looked stable," said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a think tank. The Fed therefore believes it can put a floor underneath the labor market that prevents it from deteriorating further, Berger said. "What we need to see is strong private-sector labor market growth, and outside of health care, what we've seen instead is a very, very rapid deceleration that has shown no signs yet of stabilizing," Pollak said. Pollak also said leisure and hospitality jobs — a key entry point into the labor market — have actually declined outright in recent months, putting further pressure on workers to secure employment.
Persons: Guy Berger, Berger, Jerome Powell, Bill Dudley, Julia Pollak, Pollak, we've Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Glass, Federal, Fed, New York Federal, Bloomberg Locations: U.S, haves
Tom Merton | Ojo Images | Getty ImagesJob seekers have been sour on the job market for a while now — and with good reason. "The soft landing in the U.S. labor market is in danger," Nick Bunker, Economic Research Director for North America for Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote in a statement on Friday. "Yellow flags had started to pop up in the labor market data over the past few months, but now the flags are turning red," Bunker said. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. To pivot, assess 'transferrable skills'Because the labor market is weakening, it might be hard for workers to find opportunities in their preferred industries, Bustamante noted.
Persons: Tom Merton, Nick Bunker, Bunker, Nonfarm payrolls, Alí Bustamante, Julia Pollak, Pollak, NEETS, Bustamante Organizations: Economic, North, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Worker Power, Economic Security, Roosevelt Institute, ZipRecruiter, Health, Finance Locations: U.S, North America, New York City
Boris Roessler | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesLONDON — European stocks were set to open lower Friday, extending losses amid a global downturn as a busy week of market action draws to a close. Germany's DAX was on course to open 104 points lower at 17,984, according to IG data, with France's CAC 40 down 40 points at 7,325. The regional Stoxx 600 index on Thursday suffered its worst session since mid-June, pulled down by financials as French bank Societe Generale downgraded its outlook and the Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. The central bank decision took its key interest rate to 5% from 5.25%, in a move that markets had not been fully convinced it would carry out. Asia-Pacific markets saw steep losses Friday, with Japan's benchmark indexes tanking as much as 5%.
Persons: Boris Roessler, Germany's DAX, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, BOE, Joe Tuckey Organizations: Getty, France's CAC, Societe Generale, Bank of England, CNBC, Argentex, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of, Apple, Intel, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Frankfurt, Bank of Japan, Europe, Asia, Pacific
Read previewThe July jobs report has thrown the economy's soft landing into question — and the Federal Reserve is taking the heat. AdvertisementGiven the jobs report, Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Business Insider that "the soft landing for the US labor market is in peril." Advertisement"The problem is there's very few indications that this is the labor market we're going to stick around in," Bunker said. "It's clear that momentum of the labor market continues to be downward. "But I continue to stand by the idea that this is still part of the soft landing that people thought was not possible."
Persons: , it's, Nick Bunker, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Jerome Powell, Julia Pollak, It's, We're, Bunker, Powell, Harris, doesn't, Labor Julie Su, Su, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, North America, New Century Advisors, Fed, Biden, Labor
The weak report all but confirms the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, an outcome that was already carrying a near-100% probability heading into the report. AdvertisementFriday's jobs report comes after this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady once again. "I think it's past time for them to cut interest rates," Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, told Business Insider in July. "The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market," Powell said. There were around 3.3 million quits in June and the quits rate was 2.1%.
Persons: , payrolls, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Business, Labor Statistics, Reserve, Stock, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics
"A 50 basis point Fed cut in September is clearly justified as the labor market is now showing clear signs of softening," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management. The firm, which has long been saying the Fed will need to cut aggressively this year, expects another 50 basis point cut in November by a 25 basis point cut move in December. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The S & P 500 lost more than 2.5% and Treasury yields plummeted, sending the policy-sensitive 2-year note down more than a quarter percentage point to 3.91%. "It's very possible the Fed alters its inter-meeting communications on the balance of risks to remove all doubt [of] a September rate cut."
Persons: Yung, Yu Ma, David Donabedian, Preston Caldwell, David Rosenberg, Jerome Powell, Jamie Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor Statistics, BMO Wealth Management, Wall, Citigroup, CIBC Private Wealth, Morningstar, Rosenberg Research, Harris Financial
The unemployment rate fell for Asian Americans from June to July, bucking a broader trend, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate among Asian Americans dipped to 3.7% in July from 4.1% a month earlier. The result went against the overall unemployment rate, which rose to 4.3% last month from 4.1% in June. Meanwhile, the jobless rate for white Americans rose to 3.8% in July, up from 3.5% a month earlier. For Hispanic Americans, this number climbed to 5.3% last month, compared to the rate of 4.9% in June.
Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics
New York CNN —Stocks slid Friday as a disappointing jobs report added to fears that the US economy is weakening. Stocks have also whipsawed in recent days as investors also digested the Federal Reserve’s July policy meetings and Big Tech earnings reports. Big Tech earningsInvestors have also parsed a mixed bag of Big Tech earnings this week. Shares of Apple, which reported in-line earnings but missed sales expectations Thursday evening, are up 2.1%. Investors have in recent weeks moved out of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks that powered the market to repeated record highs this year.
Persons: Stocks, Dow, That’s, , David Russell, Jerome Powell, ” Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply Management, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Intel Locations: New York, tamping
Similar to US manufacturing workers who lost their jobs in recent decades to advancements like automation, those displaced by AI could find themselves without the skills needed for the modern workforce. It comes down to when — and where — AI job losses are likely to materialize. Davis said there are several reasons workers who are displaced by AI should have an easier time finding work than many manufacturing workers of the past. Impacted workers in cities would be more likely to have job opportunities than workers where manufacturing jobs were concentrated, which often were in the Midwest. Widespread AI job displacement won't happen for at least a decadeWhile Davis is uncertain about the timing and scale of AI job displacement, he said he doesn't expect AI to drive major job losses over the next decade.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, It's, Steven Davis, Hoover Institute —, Davis, it's, — Davis, they've, they're, Joe Biden, there's, Jim Covello, that's Organizations: Service, Business, Hoover Institute, Stanford University —, Bureau of Labor Statistics —
The U.S. labor market may have cooled some in July, as a gradual slowdown in the economy and Hurricane Beryl are expected to have taken some of the steam out of hiring. Still, even if the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for July, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. "You're seeing just modest on-the-margin weakness in the labor market that [isn't likely to] spiral out of control into a negative feedback loop." Citigroup projects an even lower number — 150,000 on payrolls and a tick higher in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Should the unemployment rate keep climbing, it could raise fears that the so-called Sahm Rule is in danger of being triggered.
Persons: Hurricane Beryl, nonfarm, Mike Reynolds, Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs, Beryl Organizations: Amerant, Hurricane, Labor, Federal, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Citigroup Locations: Florida, Sunrise , Florida, The U.S, department's, Texas, Houston
Ms. Harris told The Washington Post in 2019 that she had long been comfortable with her racial identity. Ms. Harris joined Alpha Kappa Alpha, a sorority for Black women, at Howard University, a historically Black university. Ms. Harris failed California’s bar exam on her first attempt in July 1989, according to her autobiography, and received a letter in November that she had failed, “to my utter devastation.” While she did not address her subsequent exams in the book, Ms. Harris was admitted to the bar in June 1990. Mr. Trump is taking outsize credit. It is also worth noting that Mr. Trump did not request the increased funding that the schools received.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Abraham Lincoln, Said, I’ve, , Ms, , Obama ”, ” Mr, Harris’s, Said “, California’s, , Lyndon B, Johnson, Biden Organizations: Wednesday, National Association of Black Journalists Convention, National Association of Black Journalists, Washington Post, Indian American, Alpha Kappa Alpha, Howard University, Black Law, Association, University of California Hasting College of Law, Los Angeles Times, San Francisco Examiner, San, H.B.C.U.s, Democrats, Democratic, Republicans, Civil, Mr, Black Americans, Congressional Research Service, The New York Times, of Labor Statistics, New York Times Locations: Chicago, Indian American, California, San Francisco, American, Black, Los Angeles, Asian, The California,
A highly productive economy generally means businesses and workers are operating efficiently, making more money in fewer hours. In the second quarter, production was up 3.3 percent, while hours worked rose 1 percent. Productivity, at a basic level, is calculated as a simple ratio: the total amount of output an economy produces per hour worked by its labor force. No, but the impact on productivity data in those quarters was deeply negative. For now, most analysts say artificial intelligence is having only a nascent influence on overall productivity.
Persons: , Skanda Amarnath, Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, U.S Locations: U.S, Europe, America, A.I
Read previewShoppers are slowing down spending on everything from burgers to dishwashers, and that's bad news for a growing number of companies. While inflation has since cooled, Americans are still stuck with higher prices for many of the things they buy. Shoppers are slowing down food spending — even at grocery storesThe spending slowdown has hit restaurant chains, which have launched new deals to get customers in the door. Over the past two years, income growth has helped consumer spending beat expectations, Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe said in a note on Monday. One bright spot in consumer spending: Cruises, which are seeing record demand.
Persons: , McDonald's, Burger, Taco, Jefferies, ETIENNE LAURENT, Laxman Narasimhan, It's, Dirk Van de, Van de, Andrew M, Watterson, Michael Liersch, Wells, Corey Tarlowe, Horacio Villalobos, dreuter@businessinsider.com Organizations: Service, PepsiCo, UPS, Business, Shoppers, Burger King, Taco Bell, Starbucks, Getty, Walmart, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unilever, Whirlpool, Airlines, Jefferies, Costco Locations: Pellegrino, North America
If you're currently in that position, don't overlook every job that seems out of line with your current pursuits. Sometimes even an opportunity that seems a bit off your path "is a bridge" to where you want to be in the future, says Jasmine Escalera, career expert at My Perfect Resume. Before you even begin your job search, "I think the most important thing to start with is self-reflection," says Escalera. This kind of thinking could ultimately help you widen your search and find opportunities in open roles you hadn't considered. That will help you find roles in your job search you may not have considered but that could help you develop in the right way.
Persons: Jasmine Escalera, hadn't, Dan Space, who's Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Electronic Arts
In June, the financial services company WalletHub ranked the 50 states and DC across three categories: economic activity, economic health, and innovation potential. The Economic Policy Institute pointed to low minimum wages and unionization rates in Southern states as two factors keeping pay down. Of course, workers in some Southern states earn less than others. Using US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the analysis highlighted the average annual wages across US states as of 2022. Only two Southern states — Louisiana and West Virginia — were among the eight US states that saw their populations decline between 2022 and 2023.
Persons: , Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Chandra Childers, it's, West Virginia — Organizations: Service, West Virginia —, of Columbia, WalletHub, Business, South :, Workers, Economic Policy Institute, Southern, Economic, Economic Innovation, Peterson Institute for International Economics, of, of Labor Statistics, Institute, Texans, Dallas Fed Locations: Southern, Delaware , Maryland, Virginia, West, South, South : Mississippi, West Virginia , Arkansas , Louisiana, Kentucky, West Virginia , Arkansas , Alabama, South Carolina, Houston, Dallas, Miami, Nashville, Midwest, Mississippi, Hawaii, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, South : Texas, Florida, North Carolina , Georgia, Tennessee, — Louisiana, West Virginia
The GOP, under presidential candidate Donald Trump, could seek to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. In the abstract, one can argue that tax cuts and deregulation are good for business. However, further unfunded tax cuts would add to the nation's deficits and debt. He has also pushed for raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. Currently, that rate is at 20%, plus a 3.8% net investment income tax for high earners.
Persons: we've, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, Eisenhower, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden Organizations: GOP, Wall, United, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Observers, White, Trump, Biden, Federal Reserve Locations: Washington ,, United States, U.S, America
Since Harris kicked off her presidential campaign, there’s been a string of good news for the US economy. Harris will have Biden’s mostly strong economy to run on. By June 2021, Biden’s sixth month in office, the nation’s inflation rate jumped to more than 5%. After the Federal Reserve hiked interest rate hikes to a 23-year high to stamp out inflation, the economy — eventually — started to run at a slower pace. The Biden administration canceled $168 billion in student loan debt for 4.8 million Americans.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, there’s, Biden’s, , hasn’t, Evan Vucci, Eros Hoagland, Getty, Lina Khan, Jonathan Kanter, Stocks Organizations: CNN, White House, House, Federal, Trump, Biden, Federal Reserve, Gross, Commerce Department, of Labor Statistics, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, AFL, National Labor Relations Board, United Auto Workers, Union, AP Relief, American, ARPA, Medicare, University of North, Hill, Apple, Google, Federal Trade Commission, Department, FTC, Activision, Big Tech, Justice Department, Fed Locations: Ukraine, Van Buren Township , Michigan, University of North Carolina, America, Valley, Silicon Valley
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