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Morning Bid: Fragile markets wait on PMIs
  + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) looks set to snap a 10-week winning streak and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index was poised for its worst week of the year, as rates and inflation look higher for longer. The yen earned some reprieve, but it's shaky and at 143 to the dollar is firmly in intervention-watch territory. The Aussie, a growth bellwether, is quickly unwinding a two-week rally and Aussie stocks (.AXJO) are down 3% in three days. The sour turn leaves markets in a delicate spot ahead of global purchasing managers' index surveys due through the day. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Friday:Europe, UK and U.S. PMIsUK Retail SalesReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Tom Westbrook, Sterling, Threadneedle, Muralikumar Organizations: Bank of England's, Japan's Nikkei, Reuters Graphics Reuters, PMIs, Thomson Locations: Asia, Japan, China, Lira, Europe
Explainer: Why is UK food inflation so stubbornly high?
  + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( James Davey | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
While market leader Tesco (TSCO.L) said on Friday there were "encouraging early signs" that food inflation was starting to ease across the market, it remains stubbornly high, running at over 19% in April, according to the most recent official data. Below are possible reasons why:NOT ALL COMMODITY PRICES ARE FALLINGSome global commodity prices have fallen enabling supermarkets to pass on reductions in areas such as milk, bread, butter, pasta and oils. Generally speaking, food retailers and their suppliers operate with long-term contracts. Having eventually secured better prices, suppliers are reluctant to give up those hard won gains. Some politicians and trade unions have raised concerns about profiteering by food retailers, saying they have kept prices high despite falls in commodity, energy and shipping costs.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, reassurances, Ken Murphy, Andrew Opie, Tesco's Murphy, James Davey, David Evans Organizations: Bank of England, Tesco, Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations, British Retail Consortium, THE, Reuters, Brexit, London School of Economics, Supermarkets, Markets Authority, Thomson Locations: Britain, China, Japan, BREXIT, London, Brussels
June 14 (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has abandoned plans to ask supermarkets to impose a voluntary price cap on basic goods after a backlash from retailers, the Telegraph reported on Wednesday. British ministers are pursuing other measures to deal with the country's sky-rocketing food inflation, and officials had reassured retailers there would be no intervention in prices, the Telegraph said on Wednesday, citing sources. Britain's competition regulator told supermarkets in late May it was looking at their earnings to identify which supply chains it needed to examine more closely as part of efforts to tackle food price inflation. Asda, Britain's third largest supermarket group, this week froze prices of over 500 products until the end of August, adding to signs that a surge in food inflation is set to abate and even reverse in the coming months. Reporting by Anusha S and Bharat Govind Gautamin Bengaluru; Editing by Diane Craft and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Anusha, Bharat Govind Gautamin, Diane Craft, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: British, Telegraph, British Retail Consortium, Asda, Thomson Locations: Bharat Govind Gautamin Bengaluru
The S&P 500 index (.SPX) rose 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) climbed 0.28%. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.37%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was little changed. With major share markets all in the black, investors might think that stocks are set to rise further. Government bond yields - a proxy for borrowing rates - eased earlier after a European Central Bank (ECB) survey showed euro zone consumers had lowered their inflation expectations. Australia's central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point to 4.1% - an 11-year high - and warned that further increases might be required to ensure inflation is brought back under control.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, James Rossiter, Bitcoin, Nansen, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, SEC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Securities, Treasury, European Central Bank, Canada, Securities Senior Global, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of, Aussie, Reserve Bank of, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Government, Australia's, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Binance, Saudi Arabia
In the previous session, the index dropped as data pointing to tepid U.S. business activity sparked profit-taking following gains in the prior week. MSCI's broadest index of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) was largely flat, while Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) gained 0.90% and China's blue-chip index (.CSI300) dropped almost 1%. Three months ago, the question was how fast would rate hikes come. Now, a pause and then more U.S. rates hikes could follow as a result of sticky inflation, said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments. In oil markets, prices gave up most gains from the previous session after the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, said it would further cut output.
Persons: Toby Melville, Germany's DAX, Mike Kelly, We're, Gary Dugan, bitcoin, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Reserve, British Retail Consortium, Tokyo's Nikkei, Reserve Bank of Australia, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, PineBridge Investments, Saxo Markets, Dalma, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, U.S, Saudi Arabia
The BRC said spending in its members' stores increased 3.9% in annual terms last month, well above the 1.1% fall a year ago. May's retail sales growth was the slowest since the 1.6% recorded in October 2022 when consumers cut back on purchases as inflation soared to a 41-year high of 11.1%. The BRC data is not adjusted for inflation, so May's sales growth reflects a fall in the volume of goods purchased. Food was almost the only area where consumers spent more last month, due to higher prices as well as celebrations to mark the coronation of King Charles. Separate figures from Barclays on Tuesday also showed high inflation and rising food prices continued to eat away at consumers' spending power.
Persons: BRC, King Charles ., Paul Martin, Silvia Ardagna, Suban Abdulla, David Milliken Organizations: British Retail Consortium, Food, KPMG, Bank of England, Barclays, Thomson
Food inflation dipped slightly to 15.4% in May, but that’s still the second-highest rate on record. But chocolate and coffee prices are rising as global commodity prices soar, British Retail Consortium CEO Helen Dickinson said. Price controls anyone? “The current food price shock does not warrant such an intervention,” he added. Brexit is responsible for about a third of UK food price inflation since 2019, according to researchers at the London School of Economics.
UK shop price inflation strikes new record high: BRC
  + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, May 30 (Reuters) - British shop price inflation picked up this month to reach its highest rate since industry records began in 2005, although growth in food prices cooled slightly, a survey showed on Tuesday. Food price inflation as measured by the BRC slowed, however, to 15.4% from 15.7%. "While overall shop price inflation rose slightly in May, households will welcome food inflation beginning to fall," said BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson. The figures follow official data last week that showed annual consumer price inflation - which includes services and non-shop goods like energy - slowed in April, but by less than expected, to 8.7% from 10.1%. Official food price inflation, which earlier this year rose to its highest rate since 1977, slowed only marginally to 19.1% from 19.2%.
LONDON, May 28 (Reuters) - The British government is looking at plans to have retailers cap the prices of basic food items such as bread and milk, the Telegraph reported, as the cost of such essentials continued to rise in the double digits. However, asked about such price controls, health minister Steve Barclay told BBC TV it was "not my understanding" on Sunday. 10 Office is in talks with supermarkets on a deal similar to one in France where major retailers charge the "lowest possible amount", the Telegraph reported on Saturday. Major supermarkets such as Tesco and Sainsbury's have announced price cuts on some food items in recent weeks. High food prices are a direct result of the soaring cost of energy, transport, and labour, as well as higher prices paid to food manufacturers and farmers," BRC's Andrew Opie said.
SummarySummary Companies Underlying profit in 2022-23 was 991.4 mln stgSales up over 15% in first 13 weeks of new yearLONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - JD Sports Fashion (JD.L) said on Wednesday it expected profit to exceed 1 billion pounds ($1.3 billion) for the first time this year as demand for trainers, joggers and hoodies from its younger shoppers keeps growing. For the first 13 weeks of its new year, JD posted organic sales growth of more than 15%. Shares in the group have increased 30% so far this year, giving it a market capitalisation of 8.8 billion pounds, more than the market value of supermarket Sainsbury's and Marks & Spencer - two stalwarts of British retailing. For its last financial year ending Jan 28, it reported profit before tax and exceptional items of 991.4 million, up from 947.2 million pounds in 2021-22. For 2023-24 it forecast 1.03 billion pounds.
What King Charles' coronation means for the UK economy
  + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
But the UK economy as a whole could suffer as workers take an extra day’s holiday. John Lewis' Coronation Lewis Bear. John Lewis & PartnersDepartment store John Lewis has had to limit in-store purchases of its Coronation Lewis Bear to two per household, and the teddy is out of stock online. For the coronation, UK luxury brands “have procured unique merchandise at all levels of the economy and we’re seeing people buying it, particularly Americans and EU customers,” she added. (The coronation holiday will be the third holiday Monday this month.)
Overall inflation among BRC members dropped to 8.8% from March's 8.9% as price increases for non-food items slowed due to heavy discounting of clothing, footwear and furniture. Costlier coffee beans and more expensive packaging and production of ready-meals pushed up food inflation, but prices of butter and vegetable oil were starting to decline. "We should start to see food prices come down in the coming months as the cut to wholesale prices and other cost pressures filter through," BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said. Britain's official measure of consumer price inflation peaked last October at 11.1%, its highest in more than 40 years. The Office for National Statistics' measure of food price inflation - which is calculated differently to the BRC's - was the highest since 1977 in March at an annual 19.1%, reflecting higher costs for biscuits, cakes and confectionery.
Rainy March dampens shopper spending in Britain
  + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that sales volumes would fall by a monthly 0.5% after rising in January and February. Darren Morgan, director of economics at the Office for National Statistics, said the broader trend for retail sales was less subdued than the figures for March alone suggested. Retail sales volumes in March were 3.1% lower than a year earlier. "That said, even though the worst of the declines in retail sales are in the past, higher interest rates will restrain spending this year," he said. The BoE is expected to raise interest rates for the 12th consecutive meeting in May, taking Bank Rate to 4.5% from its current level of 4.25%.
Morning Bid: Purchasing managers of the world, diverge
  + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Softening second-tier data in the U.S. on Thursday put a bid under bonds for the first time in a few weeks, while bitcoin was clobbered. Purchasing manager's index data are the next set of economic figures due as market focus flings back on growth. British (GBPMMF=ECI) and euro zone (EUPMMF=ECI) manufacturing surveys are seen stuck in contraction territory. European and British services PMIs are seen steady and staying in expansion mode. British retail sales are expected to fall, adding up to a somewhat confounding picture.
London CNN —UK inflation remained above 10% in March, far higher than in the United States and Europe, as bread prices rose at a record pace. Energy an ‘Achilles’ heel’The United Kingdom is a net importer of energy, unlike the United States. UK inflation to fall sharplyThe good news is that UK inflation is expected to fall rapidly through the remainder of the year, as lower wholesale gas prices feed through to household energy bills. From April, “UK inflation might start to drop faster than in Europe,” he said. But core inflation could take longer to fall in the United Kingdom, according to Gregory of Capital Economics.
Reliance Retail, part of Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd (RELI.NS) as well as April Moon Retail Pvt Ltd, a joint venture between Flemingo group and Gautam Adani-led Adani Airport Holdings, have submitted expressions of interest (EoIs), an exchange filing by Future Retail showed. Other entities that have submitted EOIs include London-based retailer WH Smith (SMWH.L), a consortium led by U.S.-based restructuring firm Gordon Brothers, J.C. Flowers Asset Reconstruction, India's Jindal Power, and individual investor Harsha Vardhan Reddy. Reliance Retail, Jindal Power, J.C. Flowers, WH Smith and Gordon Brothers did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.
The fruit that helped give the "Garden of England" its name hundreds of years ago no longer makes money so farmer James Smith is tearing down his orchards. Turning a profit from selling red apples to supermarkets has been a struggle for years, he said. In Kent, Smith is removing 80% of his orchards. Last year growing apples lost him 150,000 pounds ($186,000), a loss which would have been higher had it not been cushioned by other income streams from his land. He's also planting a vineyard and is growing small amounts of cherries, the fruit which legend has it prompted King Henry VIII to first call Kent the "Garden of England".
Ovo Energy plans takeover of Shell gas and electricity arm
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Ovo Energy is planning a takeover of Shell Plc 's UK gas and electricity business, a move that would allow the British retail energy supplier to reclaim the No. Ovo is expected to propose an indicative offer for Shell Energy Retail Ltd's UK operation, the report added, citing sources. Shell Energy Retail has about 1.4 million customers. Retail energy suppliers in Europe have struggled over the past year with soaring wholesale prices forcing governments to shield consumers from rising bills. This would put Ovo ahead of Octopus Energy, currently the UK's second-largest supplier, which has nearly 5 million household customers after its takeover of energy supplier Bulb.
The tight conditions have helped to push British food price inflation to levels not seen for almost 50 years. Industry data from market researcher Kantar on Tuesday showed UK grocery price inflation hit a record 17.5% in the four weeks to March 19, underscoring the problem for policymakers. Many UK food retailers are buying less, knowing their customers cannot afford to spend so much, taking a hit to their profits in the process. Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium, which represents the major food retailers, said supermarkets were confident about the resilience of food supply chains, particularly with the approaching UK growing season. The grower who spoke to Reuters, and who asked not to be named, said there was too much focus on food inflation and not enough on the strength of the whole system.
UK grocery inflation hits new high of 17.5% -Kantar
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( James Davey | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SummarySummary Companies Grocery inflation in March at highest level ever recordedMilk, eggs and cheese show fastest price risesShoppers face 837 pounds rise in annual grocery billLONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - British grocery inflation rose again in March to a record 17.5%, inflicting yet more pain on consumers battling a cost-of-living crisis, industry data showed on Tuesday. Market researcher Kantar said prices were rising fastest in markets such as eggs, milk and cheese. "It’s more bad news for the British public, who are experiencing the ninth month of double-digit grocery price inflation," said Fraser McKevitt, Kantar's head of retail and consumer insight. The Kantar data for March provides the most up to date snapshot of UK grocery inflation. It said total grocery sales over the 12 weeks to March 19 rose 8.6%.
Food prices push UK shop price inflation to new high: BRC
  + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
REUTERS/Hannah McKayLONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Soaring food prices pushed annual inflation in British shops to its highest in at least 18 years in March, industry data showed on Tuesday. The British Retail Consortium said overall shop price inflation rose to 8.9% from 8.4% in February, the largest increase since the British Retail Consortium's (BRC) records started in 2005. "Shop price inflation has yet to peak," said BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson, who cited the rising cost of sugar as a major driver of higher food prices in March. Sugar prices have been hit by falling production, rising energy prices and a pesticide ban in Britain to protect bees. The country's annual consumer price inflation - which includes services and other non-shop goods such as energy - rose unexpectedly to 10.4% in February.
Britain's John Lewis has lost its soul, says Mary Portas
  + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, March 25 (Reuters) - British retail consultant and television personality Mary Portas has written an open letter to the John Lewis Partnership accusing the group of losing its soul for considering a change to its longstanding model of employee ownership. "Somehow, in recent years, you've let go of the soul," wrote Portas, known as the "Queen of Shops" due to her efforts to save the UK high street. She accused John Lewis of "chasing the new. But here's the thing: that's not what we really want from John Lewis". John Lewis' Chairman Sharon White wrote back to Portas insisting she would ensure the partnership not only survives, but thrives.
British retail sales rebound unexpectedly in February
  + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, March 24 (Reuters) - British retail sales unexpectedly rebounded by 1.2% in February from the month before, returning sales volumes to their pre-pandemic level, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that retail sales volumes in February would be 0.2% higher than in January. January sales growth was also revised up to 0.9% from 0.5%. However, Friday's data showed that retail sales volumes in February were still 3.5% lower than a year earlier. British consumers have been squeezed by inflation which hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October and has remained in double digits since.
SummarySummary Companies Banks fall as fears of a banking crisis spikeEnergy down tracking lower oil pricesUK Feb retail sales rise unexpectedlyFTSE 100 down 1.4%, FTSE 250 off 1.0%March 24 (Reuters) - London stocks fell on Friday, dragged by energy shares that tracked oil prices lower, while banks extended declines at the end of a turbulent week as fears of a global banking crisis lingered. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) fell 1.4%, extending losses after a near 1% drop on Thursday. British banks (.FTNMX301010) lost 2.7%, falling for a third straight session, joining their European peers in Friday's slide. Energy majors Shell (SHEL.L) and BP (BP.L) fell 2.5% and 2.5%, respectively, dragging the broader energy sector (.FTNMX601010) down 2.5%, as oil prices extended losses on worries about a potential oversupply. Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Morning Bid: Bank angst persists, unnerves Europe
  + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
But banks boosted borrowing under the Fed's newly launched Bank Term Funding Program to $53.7 billion - almost 5 times its first outing the previous week. European bank stocks fell 3% early on Friday, with Deutsche Bank shares (DBKGn.DE) down for a third day - losing 5% amid rising market costs for insuring against the risk of default. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is due to attend Friday's European Union summit in Brussels and update leaders on the state of affairs in the financial system. Wider markets were lower in Asia and Europe and U.S. stock futures were in the red again ahead of the open. With less than a 50% chance of another Fed rate rise in this cycle now priced into the futures, almost 80 basis points of rate cuts are now seen by year-end.
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