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☆ A CIO shares the strategy behind 'The Big Short' garage hedge fund that flipped $110,000 to over $80 million — and explains how to use the same approach in today's stock market to make extremely cheap
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Universa Investments, a "black swan" hedge fund specializing in market shocks, sensationalized this approach after it made headlines in the first quarter of 2020 for a 4,144% return when the stock market plunged. So what we do for investors is our fund serves as protection against that sort of exogenous event, that sort of crash," Sidial said. In short, it's a bet against the odds in exchange for lofty returns, or what's known as convex payouts. However, if there's a market crash, the volatility on the VIX generally outperforms more than any other underlying securities in the US equities market, he noted. For example,Cambria Tail Risk ETF (TAIL) was up 27% from mid-feb to mid-march 2020 during the stock market crash brought about by the pandemic.

Analysts have gradually raised their forecasts for where the key rate will end this year, to 7.5% from 7.13% in the previous poll. "High budget spending is the key issue," said Anton Tabakh, Chief Economist at RA Expert, who expected the upsurge in inflation at the beginning of the year due to higher budget spending to be contained. "But at the same time, there will be a preventative rate increase and, accordingly, we see the key rate at 7.5% in December, from 8%-8.25% in the middle of the year." Tabakh also said that all risks were higher and the level of uncertainty elevated. Inflation expectations, an indicator to which the central bank pays close attention ahead of meetings, rose to 12.2% in February.

☆ Peacetime Would Be a Black Swan Event For Energy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Carol Ryan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The “Russia question,” what role the country’s fossil fuels might play in peacetime, may not be the most pressing issue for energy bosses and the investors backing them. The year since Russia invaded Ukraine has been a roller coaster for energy markets. Oil prices have been volatile, with the global Brent benchmark peaking at $133 a barrel in March before falling back around $80 today—below where they traded on the first day of the war. That is nothing compared with natural gas. After Moscow cut pipeline supplies to Europe, the region’s benchmark TTF day-ahead gas price hit a level equivalent to almost $580 a barrel of oil in late August.

☆ ChatGPT has investors scrambling to get on the AI bandwagon so much that obscure stocks are soaring just like big-name chip companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That's that for the latest Fed talk — but today, we're taking a closer look at the AI hype train passing through the stock market. And small-cap tech stocks with names that nod to bots like BigBear.ai and SoundHound AI have similarly notched gains so far this year. Tech stocks have come back with a "vengeance," Fundstrat's Mark Newton said. It's a necessary step for policymakers to take, the group said, even if it means declines in stock market returns. Wall Street's biggest firms are warning their clients not to trust the stock market rally.

☆ James Abate's stock fund has nearly doubled its benchmark over 3 tumultuous years. Here's how he says investors should get ready for potential black swan events that could shape 2023.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Marley Jay | Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Kiplinger rates the fund as the best US large-company stock fund from 2020 to 2022. That's not the most encouraging backdrop for stocks, especially since Abate said investors will be less comfortable taking big risks. He added that while the beginning of 2023 has been the opposite of 2022, that's not going to last. For the first black swan, Abate pointed towards the escalation of the Russian-Ukraine crisis, including the recent increase in air defense activity, ground troops, and the shipment of armored vehicles, tanks, and fighter aircraft. As for the second black swan, Abate also highlighted the Japanese government's "unprecedented" and "unsustainable" buying of the yen to boost the currency against others like the dollar.

The government declared a "level 4 alarm", calling for international assistance, and a three-month state of emergency in the most affected provinces. 'BLACK SWAN'Reconstruction costs are likely to run to many billions of dollars, straining an economy already hit by 58% inflation. The six-party opposition said only that the government should work "without discrimination" to address the disaster that hit regions including Kurdish communities and Syrian refugees. But Ugur Poyraz, Secretary General of centre-right nationalist IYI Party, said he had toured severely hit areas and as of Tuesday morning seen no sign of emergency rescue workers. "The response of Erdogan's government to this natural disaster might shape the attitude of the floating voter but the loyalties of most voters are already determined."

☆ A night with Wall Street's stars: Take a look at Insider's celebration of top investors, dealmakers, and traders
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Michelle Abrego | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Hello 10 Things on Wall Street readers! As you might know, for the last few years Insider has been highlighting some of the most talented young people on Wall Street. Take a look at all the photos from Insider's celebration of Wall Street's rising stars here. A decade after the private-equity giant helped launch Athene Holdings, more private money managers are moving into insurance as they hunt for higher yields, the Wall Street Journal reports. Adam Berry, head of US loan trading is leaving Wall Street to join the Philadelphia Eagles, according to Bloomberg.

☆ Black Swan Manager Preps for Financial ‘Mega-Tinderbox-Timebomb’
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Spencer Jakab | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

No risk, no reward. While Mark Spitznagel wouldn’t disagree, a letter from the star hedge-fund manager seen by The Wall Street Journal has some striking insights on both fronts. A protégé of “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb noted on the occasion of his fund’s 15-year anniversary that using it to hedge a standard stock portfolio would have enhanced long-run returns through its bets on extremely bearish events.

☆ Covid broke supply chains. Now on the mend, can they withstand another shock?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

“Because of that, supply chains are not as brittle as they were three years ago,” he said. “There could be another huge black swan event in a month that throws everything upside down; but for right now, it seems like respondents are predicting steadiness in the supply chain.”If anything, the pandemic’s shock to the supply chain should be a wake-up call, said Jack Buffington, director of supply chain and sustainability at First Key Consulting and assistant professor of supply chain management at the University of Denver. “I would categorize it as ‘efficiently broken,’” said Buffington, whose own book about supply chains, “Reinventing the Supply Chain: A 21st Century Covenant with America,” had its release delayed due to supply chain issues. “All supply chains really are is supply and demand, and there’s been so much disruption in materials and consumer demand related to labor and inflation and geopolitics,” he said. The complexities related to a globalized supply chain, human systems aren’t capable of handling it.”He added: “Covid wasn’t the cause of the problems with the supply chain, it was a trigger to show how bad it was,” he said.

More than a decade later, those that heeded this advice went on to become game-changing tech behemoths, including CNBC Disruptor 50 companies Block , Pinterest , Slack, Twilio , and Cloudera. Seed rounds had a record deal value in 2022, and valuations continued to grow even as late-stage venture companies nearer to the public market suffered. Venture funds raised a record amount of money in 2022, with $162.8 billion closed across 769 funds, according to PitchBook and the NVCA. We've seen companies struggle as public companies and then skyrocket, so a lower value-IPO is not the end of the road." "But when you can generate new share in a difficult market, when the market does turn, they are in a perfect position to capture more market share and customers."

The jump was aided by Bridgewater China's raising of 2.7 billion yuan through a product launch in December, said the sources. Connecticut-based Bridgewater launched its first onshore China fund in 2018, and three years later its assets under management (AUM) in China exceeded 10 billion yuan, catapulting the firm past Winton and Man Group to become the biggest foreign hedge fund house in the country. By early November, Bridgewater's onshore China funds grew to roughly 19 billion yuan, Shanghai government data showed. The steady performance of Bridgewater's China funds - mainly targeting wealthy individuals - was highlighted in the hedge fund firm's sales pitch, which was seen by Reuters. Bridgewater's first China fund achieved an annualised return of 15.6% in the four years following its October 2018 launch.

☆ Stock sentiment is positive despite lousy headlines
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —It’s only early January, but so far in 2023 the pendulum on Wall Street has swung (to paraphrase Billy Joel) from sadness to euphoria. But why is there such optimism on Wall Street all of a sudden? But it also showed the pace of job growth is slowing — and that could be a precursor to an eventual recession. But Wall Street is a funny place: Good news is often viewed as a bad sign, and vice versa. As long as the Fed can get inflation under control, investors might not be too concerned by a recession anyway.

☆ Taiwan is planning a satellite internet service amid China invasion fears after seeing how much Elon Musk's Starlink has helped in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Pete Syme | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Taiwan is courting investors to create its own satellite-based internet similar to Starlink, the FT reports. The move comes amid increasing tensions between mainland China and Taiwan. Taiwan's digital minister, Audrey Tang, told the FT: "We look at the Russian invasion of Ukraine and how Starlink has been used very successfully." Starlink is operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX, and provides internet coverage via a constellation of satellites. Taiwan's decision to look at creating satellite-based internet comes amid increasingly tense relations with neighboring China.

☆ Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan warned a US recession is on its way and slammed failed crypto exchange FTX in a recent Q&A. Here are the 10 best quotes.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan shared his outlook for 2023 in a recent investment commentary. He warned a US recession is now "the most likely outcome" – and slammed bankrupt crypto exchange FTX. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Since retiring as Fed chair in 2006, Greenspan has worked as a private advisor and financial consultant. Read more: A war between China and Taiwan is the economic 'black swan' investors should be most worried about, ex-Fed chair Alan Greenspan warns

☆ The year that brought high-flying Silicon Valley back down to earth
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Catherine Thorbecke | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

The tech industry, already dominant, only seemed destined to grow even bigger at the start of this year. The spread of the Omicron variant suggested a continued pandemic-fueled demand for digital goods and services, which had buoyed many tech companies. The result was a bloodbath unlike anything the tech industry has seen in the past decade. For years, Silicon Valley has held up its founders as visionaries who can see far into the future. “I do not think venture is cratering, or the tech industry is cratering as an industry.”But for now, at least, there appears to be no end in sight to the pain for Silicon Valley and those who work in it.

☆ A European planemaker built a pilotless aircraft to power the world's first 'cargo drone airline' — meet Black Swan
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( Taylor Rains | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: 1 min

The brothers saw the big truck as a costly step: "We said let's map the size of the vehicle to fit exactly what you can fit in a delivery van in the last mile,'" Rangelov said. "This way we get to cut a step from the process."

☆ There's at least one big name investor who won't be fighting the Fed next year.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

As if this year didn't bring us enough bad news in the market, there's a steady chance 2023 brings more of the same. But Saint Nick's absence isn't the elephant in the room for markets — it's the Fed. Billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper said he's "leaning short" on the stock market as the calendar changes. In a bid to squash decades-high inflation, this year the Fed has embarked on a historic interest rate-hiking campaign. "What the forwards in the Fed Funds futures are telling us is that it's increasing the probability that there's going to be a recession at some point," Caron said in a Bloomberg interview.

☆ How the Federal Reserve affected 2022's stock market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Carlos Waters | In Carloswaters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve, over its more than centurylong existence, has emerged as a leading force in the stock market. The guidance often hints at the expected path of the federal funds interest rate target in advance of a policy change. That has many people on Wall Street waiting for the central bank to pivot, and bring interest rates back down. Nonetheless, many experts believe that central bank policy is only one piece of the puzzle. Watch the video above to learn how the Fed shaped 2022's stock market.

☆ Galaxy Digital Michael Novogratz on FTX: One black swan does not mean they're everywhere
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGalaxy Digital Michael Novogratz on FTX: One black swan does not mean they're everywhereMichael Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss crypto markets following Capitol Hill's hearings over the fallout of FTX.

☆ 'The Whale' reaches the big screen after a decadelong journey from the stage
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Rendy Jones | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +6 min

“‘The Whale’ was seminal for me, both in my career but also, kind of, for me personally. It was the first time that I had … really personal stuff from my own history and put it into a play,” Hunter said. The story is set in Moscow, Idaho, where Hunter grew up, and, like Charlie, Hunter said he, too, had a fraught relationship with religious fundamentalism and self-medicated his depression with food. “I’m out of the closet, I’m fine now, but that masks a lot of stuff that I just had not processed. I think it’s worth talking about.”While “The Whale” deals with heavy subject matter, Hunter said it’s still a hopeful film.

☆ Here's what Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders has to say about the economy, her favorite book, and investing in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Today's newsletter features my conversation with Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab, and why she thinks the economy's already in a recession. Charles SchwabLiz Ann Sonders is the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. Phil Rosen: Can you explain your "rolling recession" assessment of the US economy? Liz Ann Sonders: Typically when you go into a recession, everything's sort of hit all at once. Read the full interview with Liz Ann Sonders here.

☆ Stocks suffer biggest drop in two weeks; dollar gains on upbeat U.S. data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Asian stocks logged their sharpest declines in two weeks but the dollar held on to gains following strong U.S. data that again suggested the Federal Reserve might stick longer with aggressive interest rate increases. Chinese stocks extended their recovery, with the broader index (.CSI300) gaining 0.6%, while Japan (.N225) was up 0.3%. Futures show the market expects U.S. short-term interest rates to peak at 5.001% in May. The dollar stayed firm versus major peers, following its biggest rally in two weeks on Monday, which was helped by the strong U.S. services data. The Australian dollar regained some ground after the country's central bank raised interest rates to decade highs and stuck with a prediction of further hikes ahead, quashing any thought it was near to pausing.

☆ Stocks ease from 3-month highs, dollar firms up on strong U.S. data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File PhotoSINGAPORE, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Asian stocks retreated from three-month highs and the dollar held on to gains following strong U.S. data that again suggested the Federal Reserve might stick longer with aggressive interest rate increases. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) shed 0.4%, after climbing to a three-month high in the previous session. Stocks in Korea (.KS11) and Taiwan (.TWII) traded lower, while China's broader index (.CSI300) rose 0.6% and Japan (.N225) and Hong Kong <.HSI> stocks were steady. Futures show the market expects U.S. short-term interest rates to peak at 5.001% in May. The dollar stayed firm versus major peers, following its biggest rally in two weeks on Monday, which was helped by the strong U.S. services data.

“Spoiler Alert” opened in U.S. theaters Dec. 2. “Women Talking” opened in select U.S. theaters Dec. 2. “The Whale” opens in U.S. theaters Dec. 9. “Babylon” opens in U.S. theaters Dec. 23. “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” opens in U.S. theaters Dec. 23.

☆ Morgan Stanley upgrades United Airlines, says 2023 could be 'goldilocks' year for airline
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

It's time to buy shares of United Airlines , which could soar more than 50% next year, according to Morgan Stanley. Analyst Ravi Shanker upgraded shares of United Airlines to overweight from equal weight, saying that 2023 could be a "goldilocks" year for the airline. Leisure demand will remain strong, while corporate travel is expected to return to and exceed prepandemic levels in early 2023, according to the analyst. All this means that the risk-reward for airlines is attractive, even in the face of continued recessionary concerns. Shares of United Airlines are up slightly in 2022.

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