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Below are the events, trends and topics investors expect to shape the outlook for emerging markets next year. "The economic downturns along with the aggressive monetary tightening and geopolitical and commodity shocks that induce them will be temporarily painful in financial and emerging markets," said David Folkerts-Landau, group chief economist at Deutsche Bank. Globally, the war has transformed energy markets and inflation pressures, food security and geopolitical risk perception - factors that are often more keenly felt in emerging economies. "There's not actually a lot of debt maturing next year," said Carmen Altenkirch, emerging markets sovereign analyst at Aviva Investors. 6/ TURKEY ELECTIONSPresident Tayyip Erdogan could face the biggest political challenge of his two decades in power as Turks head to the ballot box in the most high-profile vote in emerging markets.

Reuters GraphicsOn a monthly basis, data showed that seven out of the 10 major central banks lifted rates in December. This compares to the monthly peak of 550 bps in September, though not all central banks meet on a monthly basis. "Most emerging market central banks are close to having completed their rate hike cycle," said Charles-Henry Moncheau, chief investment office at Syz Group. Central banks in Korea, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia and Israel did not hold rate setting meetings in December. Emerging markets interest ratesReporting by Karin Strohecker and Vincent Flasseur in London, editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Retail investors turn to ETFs as recession fears knock down meme stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Medha Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Dec 16 (Reuters) - Retail investors are doubling down on Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as rising interest rates and volatile markets curb their appetite for risky assets such as meme stocks, SPACs and cryptocurrencies. On average, retail investors' portfolios are down about 39% in 2022 after recording gains of 18% in 2021, JPMorgan analysts Peng Cheng and Emma Wu said. The investment trend, however, is leaning more toward ETFs tracking broader markets and away from the meme stock frenzy of 2021 that saw retail investors banding together on social media forums to fuel eye-popping gains in GameStop (GME.N), AMC (AMC.N) and others. Retail investors' average daily trading volume in U.S. stocks has amounted to $13.8 billion so far in 2022, compared with $14.2 billion a year earlier, which was the peak of meme stock trading frenzy, according to the report. Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday voted to propose some of the biggest changes to American equity market structure in nearly two decades, aimed at boosting transparency and fairness while increasing competition for individual investors' stock orders.

☆ Oil up $2 a barrel on supply risks amid ongoing Keystone outage
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $73.17 a barrel, rising $2.15, or 3%. The potential of a prolonged outage of TC Energy Corp's Canada-to-U.S. Keystone crude oil pipeline helped turn prices around. Traders worried about how long it would take to clean up and restart the Keystone oil pipeline after more than 14,000 barrels of oil leaked last week, the largest U.S. crude oil spill in nearly a decade. The outage is expected to shrink supplies at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub, and delivery point for benchmark U.S. crude oil futures. "The emergent EU embargo on Russian crude... may add moderate upside energy price risks in the next few months.

☆ Premarket stocks: Betting on a market bounce? You may be waiting a while
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —‘Tis the season for Wall Street strategists to pack their clients’ inboxes with market predictions for 2023. Market analysts aren’t alone. “US equity returns will be driven by earnings against a backdrop characterized by elevated market volatility,” write JPMorgan analysts. The effort was initially touted as a “Big Bang 2.0” — a nod to the rapid deregulation of UK financial markets under former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in 1986. The changes are a bid to maintain London’s role as a global financial hub after Brexit, which, alongside political turmoil, has boosted uncertainty for companies thinking about where to invest.

☆ Inside the private-debt boom: Wall Street's hottest asset faces a tremendous test in a dimming economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Rebecca Ungarino | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Defaults on private loans, which have fallen steadily since the pandemic's height in 2020, are ticking up. Private credit, or private debt, are catch-all terms to describe privately negotiated loans outside the public debt markets. Private credit firms engage in what's known as direct lending, making these private loans to companies who turn to them instead of a traditional bank. Analysts and asset management executives say private debt has held up well in 2022 in the face of brutal stock and bond market volatility. 'Fighting for allocation'A challenge for private debt funds in the past decade has been a dearth of companies they can lend to.

☆ Hasbro CEO says inflation won't ruin Christmas but Wall Street is worried
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN Business —The holidays are rapidly approaching, and for the toy company Hasbro, a slowing economy could be a proverbial Grinch that steals Christmas. Before joining Hasbro, Cocks was an executive at Microsoft (MSFT) from 1999 through 2006 and 2008 through 2016. Cocks said Hasbro is investing “significantly” in digital toys, particularly digital versions of classic Hasbro board games like “Monopoly” and “Scrabble” as well as D&D and the company’s “Magic: The Gathering” game. It’s definitely been a boon for the game,” Cocks said. “If there’s a couple of truisms in life, there’s death, there’s taxes, and there’s parents wanting to have a great holiday for their kids.”

☆ Analysis: As U.S. stocks rip higher, investors hunt for signs of market bottom
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The current gain – which has seen the S&P 500 bounce about 6.5% last week's fresh intraday low for 2022 – comes on the heels of several rebounds throughout the year that eventually crumbled. However, the index has not been above that level since March even as the S&P 500 continued making new lows. The put/call ratio is yet to approach a 10-day average of at least 1.2 that has historically indicated that "you are more in the ballpark of panic and fear and close to a market low," he said. The current bear market has also been less severe than many past downturns. The S&P 500 slid as much as 25.4% this year, while bear markets since 1929 have seen an average decline of 35%, according to BofA.

☆ The 60/40 portfolio has been suffering all year, but there are opportunities for long-term investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The 60/40 strategy, known as a balanced portfolio, has been hit by rising bond yields — which means falling fixed income prices, as well as a sinking stock market. "The future is brighter for the 60/40," said Omar Aguilar, CEO and chief investment officer of Schwab Asset Management. "The correlation will come back to the normal levels, or the historical levels that you normally have between equities and fixed income," Aguilar said. Schwab's Aguilar advises against chasing yields in fixed income, but instead maintaining a balanced approach between credit and duration. In fixed income, the firm currently has a bond duration of four years, down from its previous seven-year duration.

☆ Investors are nearing capitulation and setting up for 'another bear rally,' BofA survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For the third prong of BofA's capitulation test, the policy outlook also is getting closer, with respondents seeing interest rate cuts and lower bond yields ahead. However, investors are much closer to peak-fear capitulation when it comes to the economy and market outlook. A net 72% of survey respondents see global growth declining over the next year, just off the all-time low. However, he also noted that the rising pessimism has still been met with positive flows to equity funds, "suggesting no sign yet of capitulation from retail/institutional investors." The survey indicated the most crowded trade to be long the U.S. dollar, followed by short U.S. stocks and long ESG assets.

☆ A curious rally is occurring Tuesday in one of the hardest hit stock groups
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The bond market splashes some cold water on the stock market's attempt at upside follow-through to Monday's strong but familiar one-day pop. It happened just as the S & P 500 revisited the "island" left by its early-October rally. The October high of 3,806 remains an initial mile-marker with tests all the way up to the 200-day average around 4,150. This is a precondition for a serious rally that challenges the entrenched downtrend, but not in itself enough to make one happen. It's good to have a high wall of worry for stocks to climb, barring serious market instability.

☆ This is a buying opportunity for many investors, says Morgan Stanley's Sherry Paul
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is a buying opportunity for many investors, says Morgan Stanley's Sherry PaulSherry Paul, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management managing director, and Meghan Swiber, Bank of America Global Research U.S. rates strategist & director, join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to lay out their market forecasts ahead of the open.

☆ Record buybacks imperiled by 1% excise tax and weaker CEO confidence in economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

S & P 500 Buybacks Q3 2021: $235 billion Q4 2021: $270 billion Q1 2022: $281 billion (quarterly record) Q2: 2022: $226 billion (est.) Source: S & P Global Bottom line: the 12 months ending June 2022 saw $1.012 trillion in stock bought back, the first time buybacks topped one trillion, according to S & P Global. Technology companies who buy back their stock will be getting some larger tax bills, according to an analysis by S & P Global. While a 1% tax is not much, some argue it could open the door to heftier tax rates down the line." Weaker CEO confidence in the economic outlook may cause a slowdown in buybacks.

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