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U.S. crude oil fell Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's pivotal decision on interest rates later this afternoon. The oil market has been rattled this month by worries about a growing imbalance between supply and demand. Bulls are hoping that a decision by the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in years could put a bid into the market. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said a 25 basis point cut is probably already priced into the oil market. Traders are also waiting for the latest data on U.S. crude oil inventories at 10:30 am ET.
Persons: Matt Smith, Andy Lipow, Lipow Organizations: Federal, Americas, Kpler, Brent, Bulls, Fed, Lipow Oil Associates, Hezbollah, Traders Locations: U.S, China, OPEC, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, Israel, Iran, Lebanon
Concerns about iPhone 16 lead times could send Apple shares lower in the near term, according to Morgan Stanley. This has led to the stock underperforming by an average of five points in the three months following an iPhone launch. "What will matter most over the next 10 days is the trajectory of iPhone 16 lead times, as historically iPhone lead times elongate through the first in-store availability date (Friday, September 20th) before gradually trending lower in the weeks thereafter," the analyst wrote in a Wednesday note to clients. "Therefore, a more sustained elongation in iPhone 16 lead times from today should be viewed positively, while a sharp reversal in iPhone 16 lead times after Friday would likely indicate a greater risk of negative iPhone build revisions." With 48 analysts covering the stock, 36 of them have a strong buy or buy rating, while 11 are neutral.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Erik Woodring, Woodring, Wall Organizations: Apple
I wonder if this is collectively the same group that doubted the bull market when it was rallying on narrow breadth led by the Mag 7. Today we'll revisit Meta (META) , the second largest market cap name in the sector behind Alphabet. I currently hold a 7% target allocation in my Tactical Alpha Growth (TAG) portfolio and a 2% target allocation in my Strategic Income & Growth (SIG) portfolio at Inside Edge Capital. -Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC DISCLOSURES: ( Gordon owns META in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Elliott, I'm, Zuckerberg, Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Netflix, Spotify, CNBC Pro, Alpha, Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
The market's turn toward treating good economic news as positive for stocks is pictured here in a chart from Citi strategists, showing the three-month correlation between the S & P 500 and the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise index has turned sharply higher. The S & P 500's low for the week was Wednesday morning, right at the 5400 level where it previously hit a low a week ago Friday after a tepid employment report. Forward 12-month S & P 500 earnings forecasts continue to rise smartly, now approaching $270. But, thanks to the past two months of sideways churn, that's down from 21.7 when the S & P first hit its current level in July. And the rally last week could well have front-run any potential positive inference from the Fed's move next week.
Persons: Ally Financial, Ed Hyman, Loretta Mester, William Dudley, John Kolovos Organizations: Citi, Citi U.S, Fed, Ally, CPI, Wall Street, Financial Times, Treasury, National Association of Active Investment, American Association of
The bulls on Wall Street have been largely right about the stock market over the past two years. Business Insider asked three bullish stock strategists what they consider the biggest risks. Yet, those economists have been largely wrong about what could sink the stock market and economy. "In May/June, when you had a lot of bears or those that had been late to jump on the bull parade all of a sudden switch their forecasts and kind of chase markets up, which is pretty, I mean pretty, pretty, pretty classic," Belski told Business Insider. The second risk is, similar to Belski's concern, a 1990's type melt-up in the stock market.
Persons: , Brian Belski, Belski, Yardeni Research's Eric Wallerstein Eric Wallerstein, Wallerstein, that's, Carson, Sonu Varghese Sonu Varghese, Varghese Organizations: Business, Service, BMO, Nvidia, Yardeni Research, Carson Group, Federal Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan
Bitcoin ATMs are a rapidly growing presence in the United States and, some experts say, a rapidly growing cybercrime menace. So, while a cash ATM tucked away between the snack cakes and energy drinks at a gas station may not draw much attention, a bitcoin ATM gets more scrutiny from bad actors. But in addition to old tricks, there are newer threats bitcoin ATMs introduce that cash ATMs do not face. Although the bitcoin ATM isn't exactly drawing crowds, Patel says a surprising number of senior citizens show up at the kiosk, alarming given the rise of bitcoin ATM scams targeting seniors. Basic steps to avoid bitcoin ATM scamsTo protect against these scams, users should be cautious and skeptical of any request to pay through a bitcoin ATM.
Persons: Timothy Bates, Bates, Joe Dobson, Dobson, Donald Trump's, J.D, Vance, refashioned, Elon Musk, Sai Patel, Patel, Alice Frei, Frei Organizations: University of Michigan's College of Innovation, Technology, Federal Trade Commission, Google, Social, Middletown Food Mart, Ohio, Trump Locations: United States, Middletown , Ohio, Middletown
Let's front-run the September-October weakness Another chunk of investors is equally pessimistic, but for a different reason. 2) Corporate buybacks, which have been exceptionally strong this year — likely a record for the S & P 500 — will likely slow soon because corporations will be entering blackout periods for several weeks heading into earnings. The S & P 500 is less than 3% from its historic high. The last time the S & P 500 had a 10% correction was July 31 to Oct. 27, 2023 (10.3% drop). That's what happens with high valuations and a slower economy.
Persons: payrolls, It's, Goldman Sachs, nonfarm payrolls Organizations: Traders, Citi, Nvidia Locations: factoids
Every jobs number moves markets now In the meantime, every data point on jobs is a potentially market moving event. Nvidia's multiple is falling, not its earnings Meanwhile, there was much gnashing and wailing around Nvidia 's big 9% drop yesterday. Nvidia lost $279 billion in market value Tuesday. The forward multiple for Nvidia's next fiscal year (February 2025-February 2026) is 28.8, well below the 36 multiple in June. While Nvidia is certainly not a value stock, it is much more reasonably priced than it was two months ago.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, you've, they've, Tom Lee, Fundstrat, Joe Zicherman, Big, CNBC's Robert Hum Organizations: Citigroup, Bulls, CNBC, Nvidia, Meta Locations: China
Nvidia is suddenly in trouble
  + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
CNN —Nvidia, the AI chipmaking titan that was briefly the world’s most valuable company, has suddenly found itself in an unfamiliar position: a major rut. Nvidia (NVDA) had the worst day in the history of the stock market Tuesday, as measured by loss in total market value. To put that shocking decline into context, only 27 companies on the planet are worth as much as Nvidia lost in value Tuesday. That’s why bulls like Wedbush’s Dan Ives believe Nvidia’s stock decline presents a buying opportunity. – CNN’s Ramishah Maruf contributed to this reportCorrection: Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly described TSMC's relationship with Nvidia.
Persons: Jensen Huang, , Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Huang, Blackwell, , ” Huang, Wedbush’s Dan Ives, ” Ives, , Ramishah Maruf Organizations: CNN, Nvidia, Meta, McDonald’s, Chevron, Pepsi, BlackRock, Microsoft, Intel, US Justice Department, Bloomberg, Department of Justice, Justice Department, US Department of Justice, titans, Apple, Google, Nasdaq
The good news outweighs the bad Seasonality aside, the market is riding a wave of momentum, and with good reason: 1) The market "broadening" trend is very real. At Jackson Hole, chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the Fed had shifted its attention from fighting inflation to the job market. S&P 500 in September: It's been ugly recently (rounded) 2023: down 5%2022: down 9%2021: down 5%2020: down 4% The elections are another wildcard. Two-thirds of the S&P 500 was up in August. Most importantly, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) modestly outperformed the S&P 500 in August and closed Friday at an historic high.
Persons: Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Robert Hum, It's, Consumer Staples, Jerome Powell, David Smith, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Dow, NASDAQ, Russell, NYSE, Megacap Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Consumer, Estate, Technology, American Association of, Bulls, PCE, Fed, Rockland Trust, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Wellington, Meta, Rockland, New York City, U.S
Former MMA fighter Ronda Rousey has apologized for sharing a Sandy Hook conspiracy theory 11 years ago on X, then Twitter, saying, "I’ve regretted it every day of my life since." Rousey opened her apology saying "I can’t say how many times I’ve redrafted this apology over the last 11 years." It all started with what she called "the single most regrettable decision of my life" — "I watched a Sandy Hook conspiracy video and reposted it on Twitter," Rousey wrote. The Sandy Hook conspiracy is a favorite in fringe right-wing circles, often touted by Infowars host Alex Jones, who had called the school shooting a hoax. Family members of Sandy Hook victims sued him, and he was ordered to pay nearly $1.5 billion to Sandy Hook parents.
Persons: Ronda Rousey, Sandy Hook, I’ve, Rousey, , ” Rousey, Hook truther, Alex Jones Organizations: MMA, Twitter, YouTube, Virginia Tech Locations: Sandy, Sandy Hook, Newtown , Connecticut, U.S
Inflation relief was palpable this week, with both the producer price index and consumer price index reinforcing that inflation is trending down. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 Index over the past month. S & P 500 earnings growth of 10% is expected in 2024, and 15% growth is seen for 2025. True, revenue growth hasn't been as strong, and much of the reason earnings are holding up is cost cutting. Growth is slowing, but no recession is apparent Interest rate cuts coming and earnings are still holding up.
Persons: It's, John David Rainey Organizations: Walmart, American Association of, Bulls, Atlanta Fed, CNBC
In July’s NYT/Siena poll of Pennsylvania, Biden’s popularity was well underwater among likely voters, with 39% viewing him favorably and 59% viewing him unfavorably (-20 net rating). By comparison, 45% had a favorable view of former President Donald Trump, while 52% had an unfavorable view (-7 net rating). Half of likely voters view Harris favorable and 48% view her unfavorably (+2 net rating) in Pennsylvania. As for Trump, his rating in Pennsylvania is now at 48% favorable and 51% unfavorable (-3 net rating). When the three battleground state polls are combined, 46% of likely voters hold a favorable view of him, while 53% hold an unfavorable one (-7 net rating).
Persons: Mark Murray, Kamala Harris, Adam Wollner, Vaughn Hillyard, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Harris, Joe Biden, That’s, Biden, Trump, it’s, Vaughn Hillyard Elon Musk, Musk, Mayra Flores, Ron DeSantis, ” Trump, , , DeSantis Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Elon, New York Times, Siena College, NYT, Democratic, Getty, Twitter, U.S . Capitol, Republican, Trump Locations: Michigan , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Siena, Harris, Pennsylvania, In Pennsylvania, Trump’s, Texas
A "Buy Treasury bonds" poster is seen at a bank in Haian, East China's Jiangsu province, Aug 1, 2024. "We remain actively bullish," said a bond fund manager, undeterred by unprecedented government moves to cool the sizzling treasury market and arrest a plunge in yields, which move inversely to prices. Falling yields also complicate the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) efforts to stabilize the weakening yuan. Unlike the West, "China's financial markets, including the bond market, are subject to top-down regulation," said Ryan Yonk, economist with the American Institute for Economic Research. Late on Friday, the central bank said it will gradually increase the purchase and sale of treasury bonds in its open market operations.
Persons: Wang Hongfei, Ryan Yonk, Pan Gongsheng, Kiyong Seong, Tan Yiming Organizations: Bank of China's, American Institute for Economic Research, Societe Generale, Minsheng Securities Locations: Haian, East China's Jiangsu, Beijing, Shanghai, China, Asia
For example, this season started with the banks roaring higher on great numbers, legitimately great numbers led by a phenomenal Bank of America quarter. The later just made no sense because it is pulling away from Intel on the low end and if Nvidia really does have production problems then AMD is the de facto winner. In fact, the only stock that didn't suffer from an Nvidia relation, Apple, got through earnings without too much trouble. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Persons: , techs, We've, Warren Buffett, Buffett, industrials Eaton, Donald Trump, we've, execs, I've, Kamala Harris, Trump, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Rob Kim Organizations: Federal Reserve, of America, Bank of America, Club, Apple, Fed, SL Green, Boston Properties, Nvidia, Arista Networks, Micron, Dell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Devices, Intel, AMD, Accenture, Deloitte, McKinsey, White, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Lowe's
The S & P 500 was higher Tuesday, one day after the broad market index posted its worst day in nearly two years amid revived fears of a recession. The current pullback has all the hallmarks of a market correction, the strategist said. So, don't rush to try to catch a falling knife," Malek said. The S & P 500 on Tuesday traded about 7% below a record high reached last month. Besides, he said, it is hard to think of a market correction occurring in August, when a bottom is historically more likely to happen in the month of October.
Persons: Thomas Salopek, Salopek, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, CFRA's Sam Stovall, Stovall, Strategas, Chris Verrone, Verrone Organizations: Nasdaq, JPMorgan
(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Monday's Wall Street chatter as global markets sell off. — Lisa Kailai Han 7:02 a.m.: How long sell-offs typically last Bad news: The current market sell-off may have further to go. — Lisa Kailai Han 6:09 a.m.: Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus: Best to not 'jump to conclusions' Investors need to have a cool head as global markets sell off, according to Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus. — Fred Imbert 5:51 a.m.: Global markets in an 'aggressive risk-unwind', Vital Knowledge says Fears of a U.S. recession are pressuring global markets, leading investors around the world to sell some of this year's top winners, according to Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. "Markets are caught in an aggressive risk-unwind as equities plunge around the world, with tech getting hit particularly hard," he wrote in a note Monday.
Persons: Wharton's Siegel, Jeremy Siegel, CNBC's, Siegel, hasn't, it's, … They're, , Lisa Kailai Han, Tom Lee, Lee, Duncan Toms, Toms, Fred Imbert, Victoria Greene, Greene, It's, Nimrit Kang, — Lisa Kailai Han, Dan Ives, Gene Goldman, Gennadiy Goldberg, Ives, Goldman, Goldberg, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Evercore, Ed Hyman, Hyman, Adam Crisafulli, Crisafulli Organizations: CNBC, Stock, Nikkei, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wharton, Federal Reserve, Fundstrat Global, HSBC, G Squared, Wealth, NorthStar Asset Management, Street, Wedbush, TD Securities, Federal, NASDAQ, U.S, Fed, Global Locations: U.S, Europe, Japan, China
Investors are de-risking their portfolios amid recession fears, driving a stock-market sell-off. AdvertisementThe stock market's recession playbook is in full swing as suddenly panicked investors look to aggressively de-risk their portfolios amid fears of a downturn. Investors are questioning whether the Federal Reserve waited too long to cut interest rates and whether it's too late to fend off recession. AdvertisementDetailed below are four outperforming areas of the market that make it clear investors are employing the recession playbook:1. "Next's year's pricing makes sense if the US economy falls into recession and/or inflation tumbles below the Fed's 2% target," analysts said of the market's rate-cut expectations.
Persons: , it's, they've, David Sekera, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Treasury, Bloomberg, Morningstar, Global, ETF, Rosenberg Research, Ned Davis Research
In 1996, when Peter Hessler taught at a small college in Sichuan Province, 90 percent of his students came from villages. Mr. Hessler, 5 feet 9 inches, towered over them by about half a head. Mr. Hessler returned to China in 2019 to teach at Sichuan University-Pittsburgh Institute. This time, all his nonfiction writing students came from cities, and some of the women in his class were even taller than him. But the political system that defined society had not changed one bit, Mr. Hessler writes in his new book, “Other Rivers: A Chinese Education.”
Persons: Peter Hessler, Hessler, Organizations: Chicago Bulls, Sichuan University, Pittsburgh Institute, World Bank Locations: Sichuan Province, China
Rate cut on horizonThe Federal Reserve expectedly kept its benchmark rate steady at 5.25% to 5.50% on Wednesday, but Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the U.S. central bank could cut the rate in its September meeting. U.S. stocks rallyU.S. stocks jumped after Powell said a rate cut in September was "on the table." Oil gainsU.S. crude oil futures rose 4% on Wednesday after Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Japan currency interventionJapanese authorities spent 5.53 trillion yen, or $36.8 billion, to support the yen in July, official data showed. [PRO] Rate cut beneficiariesCNBC Pro screened for stocks in the S&P 500 that tend to rise the most when short-term rates start to decline.
Persons: expectedly, Jerome Powell, Powell, Ismail Haniyeh, Israel, Oil Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Devices, Boeing, Treasury, Facebook, Google, Meta, Oil, West Texas Intermediate, U.S Locations: U.S, Tehran, Iran, Israel, Beirut, Japan
Gold scales 2-week high as Fed nods to likely Sept rate cut
  + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices climbed to a two-week high on Thursday as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to cutting interest rates as early as September. Gold prices climbed to a two-week high on Thursday as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to cutting interest rates as early as September. Prices were just about $35 shy of the record high of $2483.60 scaled on July 17. "Gold bulls couldn't resist the urge to buy more gold after the Fed effectively signaled the beginning of its rate-cut cycle. "If the data comes in much hotter than expected, that could dent gold as we head towards the weekend," Simpson added.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Ismail Haniyeh, Nicky Shiels Organizations: Federal, Index, MKS PAMP SA Locations: U.S, Tehran, Israel, Gaza
Rate cut on horizonThe Federal Reserve expectedly kept its benchmark rate steady at 5.25% to 5.50% on Wednesday, but Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the U.S. central bank could cut the rate in its September meeting. U.S. stocks rallyU.S. stocks jumped after Powell said a rate cut in September was "on the table." Oil gainsU.S. crude oil futures rose 4% on Wednesday after Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Asian stocks mixedAsian markets were mixed on Thursday with Japan stocks tumbling while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 touched a new all-time high. [PRO] Rate cut beneficiariesCNBC Pro screened for stocks in the S&P 500 that tend to rise the most when short-term rates start to decline.
Persons: expectedly, Jerome Powell, Powell, Ismail Haniyeh, Israel, Oil Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Wall, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Devices, Boeing, Treasury, Facebook, Google, Meta, Oil, West Texas Intermediate, Nikkei, Developers, Bank of, Singapore Airlines, U.S Locations: New York City, U.S, Tehran, Iran, Israel, Beirut, Japan, Shanghai
And that’s way bigger than wins and losses.”Really cool scene outside the arena after USA vs. South Sudan. Back on July 20, in London, South Sudan came within a couple possessions late of upsetting America in an exhibition. In the 11 days since the near upset of the century, South Sudan was searched an estimated 152,000 times. Then, in the country’s Olympics debut, South Sudan beat Puerto Rico to make national history. “There’s a lot of jokes in the media, a lot of people saying certain things about South Sudan.
Persons: Stade Pierre Mauroy, Kang JJ, , Royal Ivey, , vFXBNtpx36 — Marcus Thompson II, Deng could’ve, Duke, he’d, Deng, ” Deng, Steve Kerr, it’s, ” Grant, Luol Deng, Nathaniel S, Butler, NBAE, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Nuni Omot, I’ve, Ivey, Deng didn’t, Deng’s, Manute Bol, He’s, who’ve, ” Omot, Sudan’s JT Thor, Sameer Al, Omot, Kuol, Steph Curry, Wenyen Gabriel, Los Angeles, Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, They’re Organizations: Stade, Wec, Sudan didn’t, USA, Milwaukee Bucks, Chicago Bulls, NBA, Athletic, Invest, Team USA, Getty, America, French National Team, Puerto Rico, Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement, Southern, Bulls, United Nations, Food, Kenyan, Sydney Kings, National Basketball League, UNHCR, Los, Los Angeles Laker, Maccabi Tel Locations: D’ASCQ, France, South Sudan, Sudan, USA, Africa, Kenya, London, Puerto, Southern Sudanese, Wau, Egypt, That’s, Eastern Africa, AFP, Ethiopia, Minnesota, Australia, Khartoum, New Hampshire, Maccabi Tel Aviv
After reaching a peak around $320 in July 2023, META spent four solid months bouncing between price support around $280 and retesting the July peak. With this week's earnings beat, we'll likely see META test the upper end of this new trading range. Here we can see the recent trading range in much better context, but we can also see weakening momentum conditions. The declining momentum on the weekly chart suggests a serious headwind to META's attempt to break out of its recent trading range. The 2023 range was finally eclipsed once we saw an upside break above a clearly defined resistance level.
Persons: we'll, David Keller Organizations: Meta, CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
US stocks surged as chipmakers lifted tech shares ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Fed Chair Powell's guidance will be crucial, with market sentiment hinging on his remarks. All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell, who is expected to issue guidance on rate cuts in prepared remarks. Advertisement"Tonight's press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell may provide a catalyst for the next move. "A too-strong signal of a coming September rate cut may scare traders into thinking that the Fed sees abrupt economic weakness ahead.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, Powell, Jerome Powell, David Morrison, Thierry Wizman Organizations: Service, Nvidia, AMD, Federal Reserve, Fed, Trade Nation, Macquarie
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