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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will turn focus from inflation to employment, says Allspring's Bryant VanCronkhiteBryant VanCronkhite, Allspring Global senior portfolio manager, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's next move and secular investment plays.
The data showed retail sales rose 1.3% last month led by motor vehicles after remaining flat in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales accelerating 1%. Among S&P 500 sectors, retail (.SPXRT) and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) were down 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.10-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 2.41-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded one new 52-week high and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 33 new highs and 56 new lows.
[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. Despite the sales warning from Target, latest data on U.S. retail sales suggested that consumer spending remained stable and could help to underpin the economy in the fourth quarter. The data showed retail sales rose 1.3% last month after remaining flat in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales accelerating 1%. ET, Dow e-minis were down 57 points, or 0.17%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 14.25 points, or 0.36%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 71 points, or 0.6%.
read moreMARKET REACTION:STOCKS: S&P 500 futures turned sharply higher and were up 3.1%BONDS: The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled and was down 21.5 basis points at 3.927%; The two-year U.S. Treasury yield was down 26.6 basis points at 4.362%. The dollar index was off 1.3%COMMENTS:BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“Well, that was a relief. And I think the expectation now is the Fed hikes rates 50 basis points in December. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. "Given just this data, it would allow the Fed to raise by only 50 basis points rather than 75 at the next meeting.
read moreMARKET REACTION:STOCKS: S&P 500 futures turned sharply higher and were up 3.1%BONDS: The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled and was down 21.5 basis points at 3.927%; The two-year U.S. Treasury yield was down 26.6 basis points at 4.362%. And I think the expectation now is the Fed hikes rates 50 basis points in December. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. Next, we immediately turned our attention to the CPI and that clearly came in better than expected. "Given just this data, it would allow the Fed to raise by only 50 basis points rather than 75 at the next meeting.
3 Markets rejoice after surprisingly cool inflation report
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +9 min
YUNG-YU MA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, BMO WEALTH MANAGEMENT, CHICAGO“The better-than-expected CPI numbers are welcome but show a lot of underlying volatility. What Powell said is that we are going to need a few more reads on good CPI data before he can say we’re done." Shelter is the main contributor to inflation and everyone should know by now that it’s a garbage indicator of where inflation is headed. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. “The good news is that we saw a significant sequential improvement, inflation is clearly moving in the right direction.
Fed delivers fourth 75 bp hike, signals scale-back coming
  + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
This statement clearly suggests input from Vice Chair Brainard and opens the door for the Fed to slow down the pace of future rate hikes. Monetary policy today is not sufficiently tight enough. We’ll know when the Fed is done tightening; they’ll tell us by simply saying that monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive. “The last thing we need to see regarding what the Fed will do in the short run is the election. If there’s a sense that fiscal policy will be more cooperative with monetary policy, it will make the Fed’s job easier.”Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those for longer-term ones. Here is a quick primer on what an inverted yield curve means, how it has predicted recession, and what it might be signaling now. The yield curve, which plots the return on all Treasury securities, typically slopes upward as the payout increases with the duration. "It's not unusual to get a yield curve inversion but it is unusual to get one of this magnitude. When the yield curve steepens, banks can borrow at lower rates and lend at higher rates.
U.S. Q3 GDP rise burnishes soft landing case
  + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growth rebounding at a 2.4% rate. Exports will soon fade and domestic demand is getting crushed under the weight of higher interest rates. We expect the economy to enter a mild recession in the first half of next year." BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“GDP was a weak bounce from the negative prints in Q1 and Q2. The Fed wants to see pain on Main Street.”Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SummarySummary Companies JPM reports higher-than-expected Q3 profitS&P 500, Nasdaq post weekly declinesU.S. consumer sentiment edges up October; inflation ests. "The main thrust for the market right now is higher interest rates, higher inflation and the Fed is going to continue to move its fed funds target higher," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan. For the week, the Dow gained 1.15%, the S&P 500 lost 1.56% and the Nasdaq fell 3.11%. Analysts now expect third-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies to have risen just 3.6% from a year ago, much lower than an 11.1% increase expected at the start of July, according to Refinitiv data. The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 235 new lows.
Wall St drops as inflation worries persist
  + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 7, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidSummarySummary Companies JPM reports higher-than-expected Q3 profitS&P 500, Nasdaq poised for weekly declinesU.S. consumer sentiment edges up October; inflation ests. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe data came a day after a reading on consumer prices showed inflation remains stubbornly high. The Dow was on track to close out the week with a gain while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were poised for weekly declines. The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 5 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 56 new highs and 171 new lows.
FOREX: The dollar index turned 0.44% higherCOMMENTS:KEN POLCARI, MANAGING PARTNER, KACE CAPITAL ADVISORS, BOCA RATON, FLORIDA“Not good, hello – market collapsing. With a 3.5% unemployment rate, there's no way the Fed is going to stop raising rates until after the end of the year." The Fed has got to get a handle on inflation right now. RYAN DETRICK, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CARSON GROUP, OMAHA“This is a yet another disappointing sign that inflation continues to stay stubbornly high. There are still two more CPI prints before the December meeting with the Fed, but for now, the pivot is on pause.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Allspring Global Investments' Margie PatelMargaret Patel, Allspring Global Investments senior portfolio manager, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the likelihood of more upside in bond yields, markets feeling toward rate performance, and the potential for further economic erosion.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Allspring's Ann Miletti and Barclays' Michael PondAnn Miletti, Allspring Global Investments head of active equity, and Michael Pond, Barclays global head of inflation-linked research, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the hotter-than-expected CPI data, disinflation risk, and the focus on free cash flow.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVolatility in the market reflects investor sentiment for Fed policyMargaret Patel, Allspring Global Investments senior portfolio manager, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the likelihood of more upside in bond yields, markets feeling toward rate performance, and the potential for further economic erosion.
Investors react to hotter-than-expected CPI data
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors react to hotter-than-expected CPI dataAnn Miletti, Allspring Global Investments head of active equity, and Michael Pond, Barclays global head of inflation-linked research, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the hotter-than-expected CPI data, disinflation risk, and the focus on free cash flow.
The S&P 500 touched a session low of 3,623.29, its lowest point on an intraday basis since Nov. 30, 2020. The index has tumbled more than 12% since Powell's speech and has shown little signs of stabilizing. Many analysts had looked at 3,900 as a strong technical support level for the index. Detrick said that coordinated hikes by multiple central banks left investors wondering how hawkish they all will end up being. Robert Pavlik, Senior Portfolio Manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut said he is looking at a worst case of 3,000 for the S&P as a support level.
Turkey's lira at fresh record low after surprise rate cut
  + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Turkish lira banknote is displayed on U.S. Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira sank to a fresh record low on Thursday after the central bank delivered yet another surprise interest rate cut, this time of 100 basis points. IPEK OZKARDESKAYA, SENIOR ANALYST, SWISSQUOTE BANK"The CBRT cut the policy rates by 100 bps for the second month. As an economist, it's hard to comment on this decision, because normally, higher inflation requires higher interest rates. Every rate cut gets the Turkish rates away from the fair value, and weigh on the country risks and the FX rates.
Aggressive Fed hikes rates another 75 bp, surprising no one
  + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
So this is a pretty hawkish 75 basis point increase when it comes to how the text reads." What it's telling us is that the Fed is expecting to rates to continue to move higher into 2023." There's a camp that says whatever the Fed guides to has typically been the floor and not the ceiling. This communication is basically signaling that the Fed's going to continue to be aggressive and remain hawkish. Not only did the Fed hike another unusually large 75 bps today, it is basically saying it will do it again in November.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Allspring's Ann Miletti and JPMorgan's Phil CamporealeAnn Miletti, Allspring Global Investments head of active equity, and Phil Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management portfolio manager, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether inflation has peaked, where Miletti is looking for investment deals, and which assets Camporeale is considering investing in.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're positioning defensively because we don't know where Fed is going, says JPMorgan's CamporealeAnn Miletti, Allspring Global Investments head of active equity, and Phil Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management portfolio manager, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether inflation has peaked, where Miletti is looking for investment deals, and which assets Camporeale is considering investing in.
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