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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has pumped 28.90 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the survey found, down 70,000 bpd from February. OPEC+ lowered its output target by 2 million bpd, of which about 1.27 million bpd was to come from the 10 participating OPEC countries. With the declines in Angola and Iraq this month, compliance with the agreement increased to 173% of pledged cuts, according to the survey, against 169% in February. ANGOLA, IRAQThe largest drop of 100,000 bpd was in Angola due to a small export programme and field maintenance on the Dalia stream. Among countries with higher output, Nigerian production again posted OPEC's biggest increase in March, the survey found, bringing the country closer to a target to lift output to 1.6 million bpd this quarter.
Brent crude closed 37 cents, or 0.5%, lower at $78.28 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $72.97. On the supply side, worries of tightness after an unexpected draw in U.S. oil stockpiles and a halt to some Iraqi Kurdistan oil exports were partially offset by a smaller-than-expected output cut in Russia. U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week, the Energy Information Administration said, as refineries ramped up operations after maintenance season and U.S. imports fell to a two-year low. Supply concern were, however, eased by reports that Russian oil production fell by around 300,000 bpd in the first three weeks of March, less than the targeted cuts of 500,000 bpd. A stronger greenback hurts oil demand as crude becomes more expensive for buyers who hold foreign currencies.
Crude exports of 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Iraq's semi-autonomous northern Kurdistan region were halted on Saturday following an arbitration decision that confirmed Baghdad's consent was needed to ship the oil. "The longer the stoppage continues, the tighter the supply outlook will become," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. On Wednesday, Norwegian oil firm DNO said it had begun shutting down production at its fields in Kurdistan. We can see that risk sentiment has recovered to some extent, which pushed (the) global stock markets and crude oil rebound," said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li. Attention will focus on official U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration at 1430 GMT to see if it confirms the crude stock decline.
"Fears of a banking crisis and a recession have eased, brightening the oil demand outlook at least for now," said Fiona Cincotta, Senior Financial Markets Analyst at City Index. Wall Street indexes also closed sharply higher on Tuesday as fears over liquidity in the banking sector abated and market participants eyed the Fed. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by about 3.3 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. OPEC+ sources told Reuters the drop in prices reflects banking fears rather than supply and demand. The CEO of energy trader Gunvor, Torbjorn Tornqvist, said he expected oil prices to move higher toward year end as rising Chinese demand tightens the market further.
Oil prices hit 15-month lows on Monday in response to the banking crisis that followed the collapse of two U.S. lenders and resulted in Credit Suisse being rescued by Switzerland's biggest bank UBS (UBSG.S). Falling oil prices are a problem for most of the group's members because their economies rely heavily on oil revenue. A third delegate said the recent slump in oil prices was related to speculation in the financial market, not market fundamentals. In its most recent monthly report, OPEC upgraded its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth this year but maintained its projection for global demand growth at 2.32 million bpd. Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Maha El Dahan and Alex Lawler Editing by David GoodmanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
"Nobody wants to go home with a big position on anything today ... you have nowhere to hide really." Both crude benchmarks hit their lowest since December 2021 and have fallen for three straight days. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was down $4.51, or 6.3%, at $66.84, breaking through technical levels of $70 and $68 and extending the sell off. Wednesday's monthly report from the International Energy Agency provided support by flagging an expected boost to oil demand from China, a day after OPEC increased its Chinese demand forecast for 2023. "We definitely have seen the oil market separate themselves from oil inventories and we’re more focused on a larger meltdown of the global economy," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
SummarySummary Companies Credit Suisse unease sparks global sell-offChinese economy shows signs of gradual recoveryChina reopening expected to boost oil demand -IEALONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Oil extended losses on Wednesday with Brent crude hitting a three-month low as unease over Credit Suisse spooked world markets, offsetting hopes of a Chinese oil demand recovery. "Fears of contagion are clearly gaining traction," Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM told Reuters. "As a result, the dollar is stronger and equities are weakening - bad omens for oil." Wednesday's monthly report from the International Energy Agency provided support by flagging an expected boost to oil demand from China, a day after OPEC increased its Chinese demand forecast for 2023. Investors are now awaiting official U.S. oil inventory data later on Wednesday to see if it confirms the 1.2 million barrel rise in crude stocks reported on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute.
Western Sanctions have led Russia to sell more than twice as much crude to Asia in the year to January, according to Kpler data. Iran, under U.S. sanctions, has boosted exports to the highest in three years on some estimates, with China the biggest buyer. Hardeep Singh Puri, India's oil minister, said in early February the country will keep buying from Russia if prices "continue to be good". EUROPE LOSES SUPPLY SOURCEIndia was among those to have complained about the Asian premium they paid to the big exporters. "These normal sorts of patterns of Asian premium or discount don't really apply," he said.
"China's reopening, following the lifting of the strict zero-COVID-19 policy, will add considerable momentum to global economic growth," OPEC said in the report. "The rapid rises in interest rates and global debt levels could cause significant negative spill-over effects, and may negatively impact the global growth dynamic," OPEC added. OPEC expects Chinese oil demand to grow by 710,000 bpd in 2023, up from last month's forecast of 590,000 bpd and a contraction in 2022. OPEC was cautious on economic prospects, leaving its 2023 global growth forecast at 2.6%. OPEC's share of the cut is 1.27 million bpd.
Refinitiv Eikon data shows the first Russian crude shipment to the country was in 2022, with a spike in volumes in April 2022. Only one shipment of Russian crude to the UAE has previously been reported. China, India and several African and other Middle Eastern nations have also increased Russian crude and products imports, while many countries have banned or discouraged such purchases. Data seen by Reuters on Eikon ship tracking showed a shipment of Russian crude arrived at the UAE Ruwais refinery in November 2022. "Shipments to UAE are occasional," a Russian crude trading source said.
DUBAI, March 3 (Reuters) - A media report that the United Arab Emirates is considering leaving OPEC is "far from the truth," two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Earlier on Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE is having an internal debate about leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. "This is definitely not on the table," another source with knowledge of the matter said, when asked about the WSJ report. OPEC, Russia and other non-member producers, known as OPEC+, have a deal in place to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, about 2% of world demand, during 2023 to support the market. UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said last year the UAE's plans to raise its production capacity did not mean the country was going to leave OPEC.
OPEC had kept its 2023 demand growth forecast steady for the past two months after a series of downgrades. "Concern hovers around the depth and pace of the country's economic recovery and the consequent impact on oil demand." OPEC expects Chinese demand to grow by 590,000 bpd in 2023, up from last month's forecast at 510,000 bpd. On the flipside, it noted a number of factors that could curb economic growth and oil demand. OPEC said its crude oil output in January fell by 49,000 bpd to 28.88 million bpd.
OPEC and OPEC+ do not publish oil price forecasts and do not have a price target. Officials and ministers from OPEC and OPEC+, are often reluctant to discuss the direction of prices on the record. Reuters spoke privately to five more OPEC country officials about the prospect of $100 oil. The IEA, which represents 31 countries including top consumer the United States, did not immediately reply on Friday to a request for comment on what $100 oil would mean for its members. In November, Birol said $100 oil was a real risk for the global economy.
SummarySummary Companies Smaller-than-expected build in U.S. crude stocksBroader markets weighed by economic slowdown concernsU.S. business activity contracts in JanuaryOPEC+ unlikely to tweak oil policy at Feb. 1 meetingBENGALURU, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices were largely unchanged on Wednesday, after government data showed a smaller-than-anticipated build in U.S. crude inventories, countering weak economic data from Tuesday. Brent crude was up 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $86.38 a barrel by 1:41 p.m. EST (1841 GMT) after declining 2.3% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 49 cents, or 0.6%, to $80.62 a barrel, after a 1.8% drop on Tuesday. "If we look at crude, the increase in stocks was much smaller-than-anticipated, and that is raising concerns about tightness in supply. On Wednesday, oil prices and broader financial markets were weighed down by data published on Tuesday showing U.S. business activity contracted in January for the seventh-straight month, raising concerns about an economic slowdown.
Oil slips as U.S. inventory rise offsets China hopes
  + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The price of crude has rallied this year on the ending of China's COVID controls and hopes that the rise in U.S. interest rates will soon taper off. Still, some analysts said the speed of China's actual demand rebound looks uncertain. "Whether or not oil prices can resume their march higher will depend on how quickly China's crude demand bounces back this quarter," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. An OPEC+ panel is likely to endorse the group's current policy at a Feb. 1 meeting, five OPEC+ sources said on Tuesday. OPEC+ in October decided to trim output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023 on a weaker economic outlook.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $80.52 a barrel, after a 1.8% drop on Tuesday. U.S. crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) rose by 533,000 barrels in the last week to 448.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. "If we look at crude, the increase in stocks was much smaller-than-anticipated, and that is raising concerns about tightness in supply. An OPEC+ panel is likely to endorse the group's current policy at a Feb. 1 meeting, OPEC+ sources said on Tuesday. OPEC+ in October decided to trim output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023 on a weaker economic outlook.
Tehran's oil exports have been limited since former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018 exited a 2015 nuclear accord and reimposed sanctions aimed at curbing oil exports and the associated revenue to Iran's government. "In comparison to the Trump administration, there hasn't been any serious crackdown or action against Iran's oil exports," said Sara Vakhshouri of SVB. The Iranian oil ministry did not respond to a request for comment on exports. MORE TO CHINAThere is no definitive figure for Iranian oil exports and estimates often fall into a wide range. According to another analyst, Vortexa, China's December imports of Iranian oil hit a new record of 1.2 million bpd, up 130% from a year earlier.
Oil rises on China demand hopes, U.S. inflation in focus
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Summary China reopening leads to optimism demand will riseLooming EU ban on Russian oil products imports in focusComing up: U.S. CPI data, 1330 GMTLONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Oil rose about 1% on Thursday supported by optimism over China's demand outlook and hopes that upcoming inflation data from the United States will point to a slower increase in interest rates. Top oil importer China is reopening its economy after the end of strict COVID-19 curbs, boosting optimism that demand for fuel will grow in 2023. The market is also bracing for an additional curb on Russian oil supply due to sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the upcoming EU ban on seaborne imports of petroleum products from Russia on Feb. 5 could be more disruptive than the EU ban on seaborne imports of crude oil from Russia implemented in December 2022. Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola and Emily Chow; editing by Jason Neely and Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Summary China reopening leads to optimism demand will riseLooming EU ban on Russian oil products imports in focusComing up: U.S. CPI data, 1330 GMTLONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Oil steadied on Thursday as optimism over China's demand outlook was tempered by caution over whether upcoming inflation data from the United States will point to a slower increase in interest rates. Top oil importer China is reopening its economy after the end of strict COVID-19 curbs, boosting optimism that demand for fuel will grow in 2023. The market is also bracing for an additional curb on Russian supply due to sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the upcoming EU ban on seaborne imports of petroleum products from Russia on Feb. 5 could be more disruptive than the EU ban on seaborne imports of crude oil from Russia implemented in December 2022. Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola and Emily Chow; editing by Jason NeelyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Brent crude was up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.80 a barrel by 1:29 p.m. EST (1829 GMT). "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. "The NY Fed data should be supportive for oil prices, as it suggests that inflation is peaking," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group.
Oil jumps 3% on demand optimism as China borders reopen
  + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
"If recession is avoided, global oil demand and demand growth will remain resilient," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, adding that developments in China were the main reason for Monday's gains. "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," he said. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. ,Reporting by Alex Lawler Additional reporting by Florence Tan and Jeslyn Lerh Editing by David GoodmanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Oil set to end turbulent 2022 with second annual gain
  + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
FILE PHOTO: A view shows Chao Xing tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. “Next year is set to be another year of uncertainty, with plenty of volatility.”On Friday, Brent crude was up 32 cents, or 0.4%, to $83.78 a barrel by 0915 GMT. So I think oil prices may fall to $60 next year,” he said. Oil’s fall in the second half of 2022 came as central banks hiked interest rates to fight inflation, boosting the U.S. dollar. 2 consumer in 2022 posted its first drop in oil demand for years.
Oil hits three-week high as China eases COVID curbs
  + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies and tends to support risk assets. Oil also drew support from worries over supply disruption because of winter storms in the United States, said Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at Fujitomi Securities. "But the U.S. weather is forecast to improve this week, which means the rally may not last too long," he said. Concern over a possible production cut by Russia also provided price support. Russia might cut oil output by 5% to 7% in early 2023 as it responds to price caps, the RIA news agency cited Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying on Friday.
China, the world's top crude oil importer, is experiencing its first of three expected waves of COVID-19 cases after Beijing relaxed mobility restrictions but said it plans to step up support for the economy in 2023. Brent crude gained 76 cents to settle at $79.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 90 cents to $75.19. Oil surged toward its record high of $147 a barrel earlier in the year after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. It has since unwound most of this year's gains as supply concerns were edged out by recession fears. "The prospect of further rate rises will hit economic growth in the new year and in doing so curb demand for oil," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.
Oil rises on hopes for China's economy
  + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
China, the world's top crude oil importer, is experiencing its first of three expected waves of COVID-19 cases after Beijing relaxed mobility restrictions but said it plans to step up support for the economy in 2023. "There is no doubt that demand is being adversely influenced," said Naeem Aslam, analyst at brokerage Avatrade. Brent crude gained 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $79.69 a barrel by 1248 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 85 cents, or 1.1%, to $75.14. Oil surged towards its record high of $147 a barrel earlier in the year after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. "The prospect of further rate rises will hit economic growth in the new year and in doing so curb demand for oil," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.
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