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☆ Top Bank of Canada officials speak after rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MACKLEM ON POTENTIAL FOR NEGATIVE QUARTERS FOR GROWTH"We're forecasting small positives. When you're forecasting small positives you can't rule out that there's going to be a couple quarters of small negatives. MACKLEM ON NEEDING A PERIOD OF WEAK GROWTH"I would remind you that we actually need a period of weak growth. We're expecting pretty weak growth for the rest of the year, something a little less than 1%." MACKLEM ON NOT FORECASTING A MAJOR CONTRACTION"We're not forecasting a major contraction.

☆ Bank of Canada seen on hold even as economy accelerates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Last month, the Bank of Canada became the first major global central bank to pause its rate-hiking campaign, after lifting its benchmark rate to a 15-year high of 4.50%. This will carry through to higher economic growth." That is welcome news for most, but not for Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem, as it could call into question his decision to announce a conditional rate pause in January. "We suspect that the Bank of Canada will view the apparent strength in Q1 GDP similarly, and increase its estimate of potential growth." Canada's economy faces headwinds from higher borrowing costs and financial stability concerns, while inflation has cooled more than in the United States, said Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

The economy gained a net 34,700 jobs, almost entirely in the private sector, and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%, Statistics Canada reported. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast that a net 12,000 jobs would be gained in March and the unemployment rate would edge up to 5.1%. Since December, the jobless rate has stayed just a notch above the record low of 4.9% observed in mid-2022. Thursday's jobs figures as well as robust GDP data released last week are likely to complicate the central bank's plans to avoid further rate moves. There were 18,800 full-time jobs added in the month, and 15,900 part-time jobs.

☆ Canada's Ivey PMI shows activity accelerating in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TORONTO, April 6 (Reuters) - Canadian economic activity expanded at a faster pace in March as employment and inventories both climbed, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted index rose to 58.2 from 51.6 in February. The Ivey PMI measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada. The gauge of employment rose to an adjusted 60.3 from 59.4 in February, while the inventories index was up at 54.5, its highest since October, from 53.7. The unadjusted PMI rose to 65.2, its highest since May, from 50.8.

☆ Toronto home prices rise in March as new listings tumble
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TORONTO, April 5 (Reuters) - Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home prices increased in March from February, with listings falling at a faster rate than did sales in comparison to a year ago, in the first look at the market since the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate hikes. The BoC raised interest rates eight consecutive times before moving to the sidelines last month. Sales tumbled 36.5% from a year ago, while new listings fell at a steeper rate, down 44.3%, indicating a tightening of market conditions. "As we moved through the first quarter, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Members were increasingly reporting that competition between buyers was heating up in many GTA neighbourhoods. ($1 = 1.3443 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ C$ posts biggest gain in nearly 2 months on OPEC+ output cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 6.3% higher at $84.93 a barrel as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, or OPEC+, jolted markets with plans to cut more production. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.8% higher at 1.3412 per greenback, or 74.56 U.S. cents, its biggest single-day advance since Feb. 10 and its strongest level since Feb. 16. Canadian government bond yields eased across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was down 1.5 basis points at 2.884%, while the gap between it and its U.S. equivalent narrowed by four basis points to 55.1 basis points in favor of the U.S. bond. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ TSX pads quarterly gain as interest rate concerns ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 158.90 points, or 0.8%, at 20,099.89, its highest closing level since March 8. For the month, the TSX lost 0.6% as global banking turmoil led to a selloff in heavily-weighted financials and volatility in the price of oil. It was up 3.7% in the first quarter of the year but trailing a gain of 7% for U.S. benchmark the S&P 500. It was up 2.4%, helped by a 14.4% jump in the shares of Blackberry Ltd <BB.TO> after the company reported quarterly results. Shares of Shaw rose 3.3%, while Rogers was down 2.9%.

OTTAWA, March 31 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy grew more than expected in January and is seen expanding further in February, data showed on Friday, results that are likely to fuel concern by the central bank that inflation has yet to be fully tamed. The economy gained by 0.5% in January, ahead of analysts' forecasts of a 0.3% rise, after contracting 0.1% in December, Statistics Canada said. The Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to pause interest rate hikes in March after increasing them at eight consecutive previous meetings. With the key overnight rate now at 4.5%, the bank said it would not raise rates again if inflation came down as forecast. While inflation has eased, falling to 5.2% in February from a high of 8.1% last year, the economy is expanding faster than the central bank had forecast in January.

☆ TSX rises to three-week but caution remains on rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 180.12 points, or 0.9%, at 19,837.65, its fourth straight day of gains and its highest closing level since March 9. "Discretion is the better part of valor," said Joseph Abramson, co-chief investment officer at Northland Wealth Management, quoting the well-known proverb. Information technology rose 1.5% as bond yields steadied, while both energy and heavily weighted financials advanced 1%. Dollarama Inc (DOL.TO) shares added 2.5% as the company reported a surge in same-store sales. The utilities sector, which includes some renewable energy companies, was up 1.1%.

☆ Reactions: Canada 2023/24 budget deficit to jump, Ottawa to boost spending
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

JULES BOUDREAU, SENIOR ECONOMIST, MACKENZIE INVESTMENTS"The surprise was more on the revenue side more than the spending side. Prior to this budget we were not eligible for the carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) investment tax credit, but they have now broadened the eligibility parameters." "The big open question, heading into this budget was how was Canada going to react to the Inflation Reduction Act ... MARK ZACHARIAS, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF CLEAN ENERGY CANADA"We thought today's budget was generally excellent and it sets Canada on a path for prosperity. "The investment tax credits for clean tech manufacturing positions Canada as a leader, particularly in zero-emissions vehicles."

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 72.86 points, or 0.4%, at 19,459.92, preliminary data showed. The energy sector fell 1.8% as the price of oil settled 1.3% lower at $69.96 a barrel. Oil fell after U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers that refilling the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may take several years. Heavily weighted financials were down 0.7% as concerns about the global banking sector lingered following interest rate hikes by the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Bombardier shares ended up 2.8% after the company raised its 2025 revenue and free cash flow targets at its investor day, banking on strong demand for private flights.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 131.71 points, or 0.7%, at 19,519.43, preliminary data showed. The financial sector (.SPTTFS), which accounts for nearly 30% of the TSX, added 0.5%. Energy was up 2.9% as oil rebounded from a 15-month low. The materials sector, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, gained 0.8%. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Sweden faces recession as housing market troubles take toll on economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Simon Johnson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But in Sweden, the structural problems rooted in its housing market are magnifying the effects. Banking group Nordea (NDAFI.HE) expects household consumption to fall around 2% in 2023, while the National Board of Housing expects housing starts to fall around 50% in the coming year compared with 2021. "However, in the last few months, the interest rate has almost tripled making it almost unaffordable to survive," Logan said. Sweden's banks are among the most strongly capitalised in Europe - partly as a result of worries about the housing market. But Sweden's economy is likely to remain a hostage to imbalances in the housing market while its structural problems go unresolved.

☆ Bank of Canada and Fed head for historic divergence, in a blow to loonie
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. A lower expected peak for Canadian rates has pressured the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart. ,Canadian rates have peaked below U.S. rates in the three major tightening cycles since the start of the millennium, with the gap ranging between 50 and 75 basis points. "Poring over the national accounts, it's increasingly clear that interest-sensitive demand has wilted in Canada," Warren Lovely and Taylor Schleich, strategists at National Bank of Canada, said in a note after the recent GDP data. Still, there could be a limit to how much interest-rate divergence the BoC will allow, say analysts.

☆ Bank of Canada says it needs more evidence that rates are high enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

By Steve Scherer and David LjunggrenOTTAWA, March 9 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada needs more evidence to gauge if interest rates are high enough to tame inflation, in part because the economies of major trading partners are doing better than forecast, senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said on Thursday. She spoke a day after the central bank left its key overnight interest rate on hold at 4.50%, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its tightening campaign as inflation eases. "If evidence accumulates suggesting inflation may not decline in line with our forecast, we're prepared to do more." The economic growth and inflation outlooks for both the United States and Europe are higher than the bank had expected in January. (Additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto)((Reuters Ottawa bureau; david.ljunggren@tr.com))Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

OTTAWA, March 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its key overnight rate on hold at 4.50%, as expected, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its monetary tightening campaign in the face of an anticipated easing of high inflation. In its statement, the BoC reiterated that it was "prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target." The majority of the 32 economists surveyed by Reuters last week said the central bank would likely keep rates on hold through the end of this year, and all of them forecast it would stay on hold on Wednesday. Before the announcement, money markets had expected the policy rate to remain unchanged but were pricing in another tightening by September. The central bank said core inflation measures and short-term inflation expectations still needed to fall in order to return inflation to target.

☆ Canada's trade surplus widens to C$1.92 bln in January on food, autos
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Total exports rose 4.2% in January on the back of gains in all product categories that more-than offset a fall in energy products exports. Farm, fishing and intermediate food products, motor vehicles and parts, and metal and non-metallic mineral products all contributed roughly equally to the rise in exports, Statscan said. By volume, total exports were up 5.3% in January. Imports increased 3.1% after two consecutive monthly declines, largely driven by motor vehicles and parts as well as industrial machinery, equipment and parts. By volume, total imports were up 4.1%.

☆ Bank of Canada seen leaving rates unchanged as growth stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem holds a news conference at the Bank of Canada, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Ottawa, Canada, June 22, 2020. "We expect the Bank of Canada to be the first G10 central bank to hold rates," said Jay Zhao-Murray, a forex analyst at Monex Canada. Money markets expect the policy rate to be left on hold on Wednesday but are pricing in another tightening by September. "Look for the Bank of Canada to point to slowing GDP growth and inflation when justifying its decision to maintain the level of rates," said Royce Mendes and Tiago Figueiredo, Desjardins economists, in a note. "The central bank is unlikely to do much to endorse the view that further rate hikes will be necessary," they said.

☆ Canada posts surprise January trade surplus of C$1.9 billion on export gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

OTTAWA, March 8 (Reuters) - Canada recorded an unexpected trade surplus of C$1.9 billion ($1.38 billion) in January, driven by broad-based gains in exports, while imports posted a smaller increase led by motor vehicles and parts, Statistics Canada data showed on Wednesday. Statscan also revised December's trade figures to a surplus of C$1.2 billion from an initial C$160 million deficit. read moreTotal exports rose 4.2% in January on the back of gains in all product categories that more than offset a fall in energy products exports. By volume, total exports were up 5.3% in January. Imports increased 3.1% after two consecutive monthly declines, largely driven by motor vehicles and parts as well as industrial machinery, equipment and parts.

☆ TSX slides as investors brace for more Fed rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"We are seeing a pullback in risk assets as people start to discount the Fed keeping rates higher for longer," said Joseph Abramson, co-chief investment officer at Northland Wealth Management. The TSX has a 30% weighting in commodity-linked shares. The energy sector fell nearly 2% on Tuesday as oil settled 3.6% lower at $77.58 a barrel, while materials, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, was down 2.9%. Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI.TO) shares were a bright spot, rising 1.2%. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Additional reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva and Ken FerrisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

"China was closed for months and just improving economic data gives buyers of commodity stocks confidence that those prices can hold, and as we know it is a good chunk of the TSX index," said Barry Schwartz, portfolio manager at Baskin Financial Services. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 244.37 points, or 1.2%, at 20,581.58, its highest closing level since Feb. 16. Wall Street also advanced as U.S. Treasury yields eased and economic data helped investors look past the growing likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep its restrictive policy in place for longer than anticipated. Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc (ZZZ.TO) was up 5.9% after the company's fourth-quarter sales and earnings beat estimates. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar and Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fact Check-Apparel company clarifies T-shirt photo shared by gunmaker Smith & Wesson is unaffiliated with Proud Boys
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Reuters Fact Check | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Yes, that’s a Proud Boys shirt/endorsement in the photo. Smith & Wesson shared the image on its social media accounts with a caption that mentions Perceeption Brand as the apparel maker (here) and (here). Perceeption Brand in an Instagram statement on March 2 said, “PB stands for Perceeption Brand. Smith & Wesson and Perceeption Brand did not respond to requests for comment. Smith & Wesson shared a photo with a “PB” logo that, according to the apparel company Perceeption Brand, is not affiliated with the Proud Boys logo.

☆ Fact Check-Photo of gunmaker Smith & Wesson T-shirt does not feature a Proud Boys logo
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Reuters Fact Check | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Gunmaker Smith & Wesson shared a photo on social media featuring a T-shirt with a logo for Perceeption Brand, a tactical apparel company, but users online are sharing the photo alongside claims that it shows the logo for the far-right group, the Proud Boys. Smith & Wesson shared the image on its social media accounts with a caption that mentions Perceeption Brand as the apparel maker. The Perceeption Brand logo uses a different font, which can be seen on apparel on its website (here) and (here). Smith & Wesson and Perceeption Brand did not immediately respond for comment. Smith & Wesson shared a photo with an apparel brand’s logo, not a Proud Boys logo.

☆ Canada's economy unexpectedly stalled in Q4; January rebound likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

OTTAWA, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy recorded zero growth in the final three months of 2022, massively underperforming expectations, though economic activity likely rebounded with a 0.3% increase in January, Statistics Canada data showed on Tuesday. The 0.0% growth reading in fourth-quarter gross domestic product capped five consecutive quarterly increases and missed analysts' average forecast of a 1.5% rise. It was also well below the Bank of Canada's forecast for 1.3% annualized GDP growth in the quarter. The economy contracted 0.1% in December from November, also below analysts' expectations that GDP would be unchanged in the month. Still, Statscan said the economy likely started 2023 on a stronger footing, with increases in sectors including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and wholesale trade indicating a 0.3% rise.

☆ VIEW Canada's economy unexpectedly stalled in Q4; January rebound likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TORONTO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy recorded no growth in the final three months of 2022, massively underperforming expectations, though economic activity likely rebounded with a 0.3% increase in January, Statistics Canada data showed on Tuesday. "Even with the January rebound, however, Q4 and Q1 combined seem likely to average slightly below the Bank of Canada's prior forecasts which supports the current pause in terms of interest rates." It'll be a short and sweet statement saying that they're still on a conditional hold and evaluating the lagging effects. They'll want to see a whole lot more data before they're convinced that they're either done and/or that they're going to act again." ROBERT BOTH, MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES"It is a pretty large miss on Q4.

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