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Some estimates have suggested the unemployment rate, currently at more than a five-decade low of 3.4%, may have to approach 7% for inflation to fall on a reasonable timetable. But a series of rapid rate hikes last year, which pushed the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero to the current 4.50%-4.75% range, has so far been relatively cost-free. Those projections have inflation dropping to 2.1% by the end of 2025, with the economy growing throughout and the unemployment rate rising only to around 4.6%. By contrast, they said "the cost of lowering inflation to the Fed's 2% target by 2025 will likely be associated with at least a mild recession." Perhaps too reliant on the tame inflation of recent decades, the Fed made a "significant error" by not raising interest rates "preemptively" when inflation began accelerating in 2021, the group concluded.

With Alibaba shares down 30% in one month, enthusiasm for China's return to normalcy is peaking early. The Alibaba chief executive also cautioned that January was a "challenging time" and that the company is keeping an eye on how the reopening develops. Alibaba has hit the limits of the reopening boon. Reuters GraphicsFollow @mak_robyn on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSAlibaba on Feb. 23 reported revenue of 248 billion yuan ($35.9 billion) in the three months to December, an increase of 2% year-on-year. Adjusted earnings rose 12% to 40 billion yuan.

☆ NHL roundup: Bruins edge Kraken on Jake DeBrusk's late tip-in
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Brandon Carlo scored the first of the Bruins' two third-period goals, while McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm had two assists apiece. The winning goal was DeBrusk's third goal in three games since returning from injuries. Minnesota killed off its 22nd straight penalty in the win and has not given up a power-play goal in nine straight games. Oilers 7, Penguins 2Connor McDavid had two goals and two assists as Edmonton scored seven straight goals to defeat host Pittsburgh. Vincent Trocheck scored the only goal for the Rangers, who have lost three straight following a seven-game winning streak.

☆ I used the viral 'monk mode' productivity hack to transform my morning routine – here's how it works
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Ella Hopkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"Monk mode" is the practice of working on just one task and not giving in to distractions. I use 'monk mode' for deep, head-down focus. I first heard about monk mode on YouTube two years ago. I start monk mode at 6 a.m., before I get dressed, take a shower, or do my daily yogaMy day is split into two sections: monk mode and everything else. I like having a clear separation between monk mode and the rest of the day at my desk.

☆ Top 25 roundup: Brandon Miller plays, leads No. 2 Tide to OT win
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/4] Feb 22, 2023; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide forward Brandon Miller (24) dribbles the ball against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the second half at Colonial Life Arena. Miller hasn't been charged with a crime and the school announced hours before Wednesday's game that Miller would play against the Gamecocks. Gregory "GG" Jackson Jr. scored 19 points for South Carolina (10-18, 3-12), which lost for the 10th time in 12 games. Jayden Gardner, who scored 16 points, was the lone Virginia player to reach double figures. Bryce Hopkins scored 16 points and Jared Bynum contributed 14 for Providence (20-8, 12-5), which was outrebounded 40-20.

Only "a few" participants outright favored a larger half-percentage-point increase at the meeting, or said they "could have supported" it. Bond yields rose following the release of the minutes and the U.S. dollar also advanced against a basket of currencies, but U.S. stocks pared gains. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the government bond maturity most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, rose about 4 basis points from its level before the release to about 4.69%. Traders of futures tied to the Fed policy rate added to bets on at least three more quarter-percentage-point rate hikes at upcoming meetings, with contract pricing pointing to a top federal funds rate range of 5.25%-5.50%. The central bank has raised its policy rate over eight meetings from a starting point near zero last March to the current 4.50%-4.75% range.

☆ Fact Check-Suramin is not a proven cure for autism
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Reuters Fact Check | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Examples of users sharing the claim that suramin is a “relatively cheap” autism “cure” can be seen (here) and (here)Some posts refer to the treatment having caused “non-verbal” children with autism to start speaking within hours, but without citing the source of that alleged result. NO CURE FOR ASDThe U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) websites say that there is no cure for ASD, and caution against using any non-approved medication to treat ASD (here), (here). Other drugs may improve ASD symptoms, according to the NIH (here). The study found small, temporary improvements in scores on a diagnostic assessment for autism known as the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, 2nd edition (ADOS-2) examination (here). Suramin is not a proven cure or treatment for autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but preliminary research suggests it might have promise to improve symptoms associated with ASD.

The two-day meeting ended on Feb. 1 with the central bank raising its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, a return to a more standard rate hike size after a year of sequential three-quarter point and half-point increases. The Fed uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index in setting its 2% inflation target. Since the meeting, some Fed officials have acknowledged they had pushed to continue with larger half-point rate increases at the last meeting, while investors have boosted their own outlook for where the Fed may end up. Most do not see the Fed returning to larger half-point increases now that they have slowed. While the minutes released today are particularly dated, given the jobs and inflation numbers released since then, policymakers will update their views next month with new economic and interest rate projections issued after the Fed's March 21-22 meeting.

Worldwide boy-band sensation BTS may be on hiatus, but refreshing new financial acts threaten to upend the world of K-pop, and perhaps South Korea. The battle over 28-year-old SM Entertainment, the $2.3 billion force behind Girls' Generation and EXO, is at heart a family feud. It helps, too, that K-pop has turned into one of South Korea’s strongest exports, thanks largely to “Butter” and “Dynamite” singers BTS. "We oppose all aggressive outside mergers and acquisitions, including Hybe," SM said in a statement, according to Reuters. Separately, internet conglomerate Kakao said on Feb. 7 it would acquire a 9.05% stake in SM via 112 billion won of new shares and 105 billion won of convertible bonds.

☆ How to boost your portfolio income when companies cut dividends
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Dividend stocks have long been a way for investors to earn income, but recent cuts may have some concerned about what to do next. However, those recent decreases are unusual, said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S & P Dow Jones Indices. Where to look for income Corporate dividends are just one source of income, and that income should be just one part of your overall portfolio, said certified financial planner Jamie Hopkins, managing partner of wealth solutions at Carson Group. Dividend funds Another option is an exchange-traded fund composed of dividend stocks. WDIV YTD mountain SPDR S & P Global Dividend ETF's year-to-date performance The ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF , also tracks the index.

While the Fed settled for a quarter-percentage-point rise, it also said "ongoing increases" would push the policy rate as high as needed. Recent data also showed inflation continuing to slow, though by less than expected. Today's 4.5%-4.75% policy rate is its highest since the eve of the housing crisis in 2007. "I don't see that indicating to me that we're slowing the economy," Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said of recent data, including strong retail sales and job growth. Richmond Fed's Barkin, by contrast, said he took little "signal" from recent data, anticipating inflation would continue falling.

☆ I made $363,000 last year from self-publishing my books. Here's how I did it spending less than $20 a week on ads and winning over BookTok.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Ella Hopkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

She connected with readers through authors' Facebook groups and by posting regularly on #BookTok. I decided to also publish my books through Kindle Select, which made my books accessible on Kindle Unlimited, a KDP subscription serviceI've always been a big reader, and I used Kindle Unlimited when I was struggling with money. I'd found so many authors I loved on Kindle Unlimited — it was important to me to have my book available there, too. I decided to make my books accessible to Kindle Unlimited readers. I connected with new readers by posting videos and doing takeovers of other author's Facebook pagesI hustled hard on social media.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The Fed wants inflation at 2%. But the economy might be fine with higher inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But the economy may be fine with higher inflation. The 2% inflation target has been repeated so often by Fed officials and central bankers worldwide that it seems absolutely crucial to a healthy economy. But "the 2% inflation target, it's relatively arbitrary," said Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute. In 1991, Canada announced its inflation target; the United Kingdom followed a year later. But if the 2% target is arbitrary, it implies that the economy could function normally at a higher level of inflation.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The Fed wants inflation at 2%. But the economy may be fine with higher inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The 2% inflation target is key to the Federal Reserve's vision for stable prices in the U.S. economy, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. But, "the 2% inflation target, it's relatively arbitrary," Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute, told CNBC. "We led the way in inflation targeting," Arthur Grimes, professor of wellbeing and public policy at Victoria University, told CNBC. Canada announced its inflation target in 1991, and the United Kingdom followed suit in 1992. Then, Sweden and Finland declared inflation targets in 1993, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

☆ NHL roundup: Rangers escape 3-goal hole, edge Oilers in SO
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/4] Feb 17, 2023; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; New York Rangers forward Alexis Lafreniere (13) scores the shoot-out winning goal against Edmonton Oilers goaltender Jack Campbell (36) at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY SportsFebruary 18 - Alexis Lafreniere scored the deciding goal of the shootout to give the New York Rangers a 5-4 comeback win over the host Edmonton Oilers on Friday. The Rangers trailed 3-0 and 4-1 in the first period, but chipped away and won their seventh straight game. The Oilers are winless (0-1-2) in their last three games, but have still collected points in 13 of their last 14 games (9-1-4). The Oilers scored four goals in the third period of their last game with the Rangers, a 4-3 victory on Nov. 26 in New York.

☆ I've made $126,000 in sales so far in 2023 on Etsy. Here's how I set up this mostly passive income stream that takes 3 hours a week.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Ella Hopkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Emma Larocque set up her Etsy shop, Quartz Design Studio, to make a passive income on the side. I created a Printful account and linked to an Etsy shop I'd started in November 2021. Once an order is placed through Etsy, Printful automatically embroiders the sweatshirt with my design and sends it to the customer. My revenue for last year from the Etsy shop was about $71,000, after Etsy's 9.5% transaction and processing fee. I pay more to have my items made and shipped by Printful, but that's what keeps my shop passive.

☆ NHL roundup: Auston Matthews' return boosts Leafs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/6] Feb 15, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (88) battles for the puck with Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Caleb Jones (82) in front of Blackhawks goaltender Petr Mrazek (34) during the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY SportsFebruary 16 - Auston Matthews had a goal and an assist in his return after missing five games with a sprained knee, helping the Toronto Maple Leafs earn a 5-2 win over the visiting Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday night. The Maple Leafs went 2-3-0 while Matthews was out. Conor Timmins added a goal, and the Maple Leafs goalie Ilya Samsonov made 27 saves. Lazar and defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson left due to lower-body injuries, and goalie Arturs Silovs stopped 22 shots in his NHL debut.

☆ Eye-Care Company Bausch + Lomb to Name Brent Saunders CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Jared S. Hopkins | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Brent Saunders is expected to serve in his second stint as the head of Bausch + Lomb. Eye-care company Bausch + Lomb Corp. is expected to name Brent Saunders as chief executive officer and chairman of its board, according to people familiar with the matter. Mr. Saunders would succeed Joseph Papa , who had said last July that he would step down from his roles running the company and serving on its board. The leadership change could be announced as soon as Wednesday, the people said.

☆ Eye-Care Company Bausch + Lomb Names Brent Saunders CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Jared S. Hopkins | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/eye-care-company-bausch-lomb-to-name-brent-saunders-ceo-e7eb0876

China’s official count 0 2.5 million 83,150 deaths Model based on Shanghai outbreak 1.6 million deaths LOW ESTIMATE HIGH ESTIMATE Estimate using travel patterns 970,000 deaths Estimate using recent testing data 1.5 million deaths Estimate based on U.S. death rates 1.1 million deaths China’s official count 0 2.5 million 83,150 deaths Model based on Shanghai outbreak 1.6 million deaths LOW EST. But China’s official Covid death toll for the entire pandemic remains strikingly low: 83,150 people as of Feb. 9. Four separate academic teams have converged on broadly similar estimates: China’s Covid wave may have killed between a million and 1.5 million people. Why official data underrepresents China’s outbreak83,150 deaths China’s official count on Feb. 9 0 2.5M 83,150 deaths China’s official count on Feb. 9 0 2.5 millionChina has a narrow definition of what counts as a Covid-19 death. But the work was unwavering in its ultimate conclusion: Ending the “zero Covid” policy was likely to overwhelm the health care system, producing an estimated 1.6 million deaths.

☆ How a family's struggle to help their son gave rise to controversial $400 million psychedelics giant Compass Pathways
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Yeji Jesse Lee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +18 min

Today, Compass Pathways, the for-profit company they launched in 2016, is a Nasdaq-listed firm worth about $400 million. Compass Pathways Show lessIt could also boost the dozens of psychedelics companies inspired by Compass that have been formed in recent years. Insider spoke with more than a dozen industry participants to chart the rise of Compass Pathways and its role in the psychedelics boom. He recalled the 2018 Quartz article that detailed the growing alarm around Compass Pathways' "magic mushroom monopoly." Were it not for his decision to take a break from college, and his parents' efforts to find a treatment, Compass Pathways might not exist.

2 role vacant just as the central bank approaches a decision about when to stop raising interest rates. Brainard's arguments may not have been relevant to the decisions the Fed faces in the next few weeks. Heidi Shierholz, president of the labor-affiliated Economic Policy Institute, said it was "unbelievably important" that Biden find someone to fill Brainard's role. Administration officials gave no immediate sense of how soon Biden may name a new Fed vice chair, though outside analysts and commentators were already putting names in circulation from what's considered a deep bench of economists affiliated with Biden's Democratic party. The vice chair plays a particularly important role, typically reserved for somebody with a PhD in economics who can speak with technical authority about Fed policy and decisions.

Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. Labor Department is due to release its Consumer Price Index report for January at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT). For the purpose of calculating inflation, "housing" is considered a service. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsEven outside of housing, the general pace of services inflation has been falling somewhat. Carpenter said he felt that one of Powell's top stated concerns, of low unemployment driving wages higher for workers in the services sector and keeping inflation elevated, may be overstated. "The link from wages to inflation is there, but small, and both services wage and price inflation are trending down," he said, noting a recent White House study indicating wage growth across key services businesses was declining.

☆ NHL roundup: Lightning win Cup Final rematch vs. Avs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

In the first meeting between the clubs since last June's Stanley Cup Final, Vasilevskiy stopped 30 shots to extend his franchise-record shutout total to 29. Hagel had two goals and an assist to lead the Lightning offensive output as they broke a two-game skid (0-1-1). Boeser, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Nils Aman added goals for the Canucks. Nicolas Roy, Alex Pietrangelo and Paul Cotter also scored for the Golden Knights while Jonathan Marchessault added two assists. Red Wings 2, Flames 1Filip Zadina scored his first goal of the season after missing over three months as host Detroit edged Calgary.

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