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Retail sales, industrial production and producer price inflation on Wednesday all pointed to the world's largest economy notably slowing in December. Finally, bad news may be bad news for risk assets. A range of yield curves in the United States and elsewhere shows investors are clearly anticipating economic slowdown, disinflation or outright recession. But the tone across Asian markets on Thursday is likely to be bearish, given the way world markets went on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ U.S. dollar advances vs major currencies as risk appetite fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The earlier sell-off in the dollar came after the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates. In afternoon trading, the U.S. currency rose against the commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars, which sensitive to risk appetite. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to US$0.6936, after hitting its highest since August last year. In Japan, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The dollar rose as much as 2.7% to 131.58 yen before gains were pared.

☆ Treasury yields, dollar fall after U.S. data; yen flat in wake of BOJ
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. The drop in U.S. retail sales, together with subsiding inflation, could encourage the Federal Reserve to further scale back the pace of its interest rate increases next month. The decision caused the yen to fall, with investors unwinding bets based on expectations the central bank would overhaul its yield control policy. But in late-morning U.S. trading, the dollar was little changed against the yen . "The PPI and retail sales numbers show that there are disinflationary pressures going on," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.

☆ Stocks buoyed by cheery data after BOJ damp squib
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Data showed British inflation dropped to a three-month low of 10.5% in December, the latest sign that global inflationary pressures are abating. Also helped by a string of positive earnings updates, Europe's STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.4% to its highest level since April 2022. Earlier in the day MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.24%, and S&P 500 futures gained 0.26%. The dollar at one point rose as much as 2.7% against the Japanese yen, but was last 0.78% higher at 129.11. Data on Tuesday showed China's economic growth had slumped in 2022 to 3.0% - the weakest rate in nearly half a century.

☆ Analysis: Japan's yen feels the heat from hard-line BOJ policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Speculators have looked instead to the yen, an easier target where their bets on BOJ policy have induced massive swings and historic levels of volatility. BIGGER YEN BETSAnalysts expect bets on the BOJ soon abandoning its yield curve control policy will get bigger and louder, for a number of reasons. James Athey, an investment director at fund manager abrdn, has held a long position on the yen for a while. We had a significant overweight on the Japanese yen, (and) in the aftermath, we took profit on some of our yen position," Athey said. "The debate around the future of BOJ policy is far from settled," said Howard Smith, partner and portfolio manager at Indus Japan Strategies.

"This step will allow us to push down longer-term interest rates, without directly affecting supply and demand of the cash Japanese government bond (JGB) market," Kuroda told a news conference. Following its two-day policy meeting, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe central bank also made no change to its guidance that allows the 10-year bond yield to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target. "By showing its resolve to use market tools more flexibly, the BOJ wanted to signal to markets it won't make big monetary policy changes under Kuroda." Market attention is already shifting toward monetary policy under Kuroda's successor, who will need to steer an orderly exit from decades of ultra-low rates.

☆ Japan yields tumble to well below policy cap as BOJ stands pat
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A Japan Yen note is seen in this illustration photo taken June 1, 2017. The yield was at 0.51% prior to the Bank of Japan decision. "If they had expanded the band again or terminated YCC, yields would rise, which would be a de facto rate hike for a second consecutive meeting," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. The BOJ also made use of a newly announced policy tool immediately, offering five-year loans to financial institutions to enhance liquidity, and showing its resolve to keep yields low. At the post-meeting press conference, Kuroda defended the change, reiterating that widening the yield band has made YCC "fully sustainable".

☆ Yen plunges as BOJ sticks to ultra-easy policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Since then, speculation had swirled that the BOJ could tweak its yield curve control (YCC) policy further or even scrap it. At a two-day policy meeting, the BOJ kept intact its YCC targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The Australian dollar gained 2.2% and Singapore dollar rose 1.9%. The 10-year yield has repeatedly breached the ceiling in the past four sessions. The Australian dollar rose mostly flat, while the kiwi rose 0.30% at $0.645.

☆ Japanese yen tumbles, bonds rally after BOJ keeps policy ultra easy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The bank, however, maintained ultra-low interest rates, including its 0.5% cap for the 10-year bond yield. The dollar also gained 2.5% against the Japanese yen to 131.4 yen, in its biggest percentage daily rise since March 2020. In a Reuters poll, 97% of economists expected the BOJ to maintain its ultra-easy policy at the meeting. A survey of global fund managers by BofA Securities out on Tuesday showed that expectations of further appreciation in the Japanese yen in January were the highest in 16 years. The dollar index , which measures the safe-haven dollar against six peers, rose 0.4% at 102.84.

The surprise decision sent the yen skidding against other currencies and bond yields tumbling the most in decades, as investors unwound bets they made anticipating the central bank would overhaul its yield control policy. At a two-day policy meeting, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The central bank also made no change to its guidance that allows the 10-year bond yield to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target. Underscoring its resolve to keep defending the cap, the BOJ beefed up a key market operation tool to more effectively curb rises in long-term interest rates. "By showing its resolve to use market tools more flexibly, the BOJ wanted to signal to markets it won't make big monetary policy changes under Kuroda."

☆ Morning Bid: BOJ goes for broke
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SYDNEY, Jan 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Global bond markets breathed a sigh of relief and U.S. 10-year yields eased 8 basis points to 3.48%. The BOJ will continue to buy bonds in whatever amount necessary to maintain its target for 10-year JGB yields at zero. It was unclear how meaningful this change would be, but the BOJ's defiant stance did see 10-year JGB yields backtrack to 0.36% from an early high of 0.51%. Analysts still suspect the BOJ will again have to buy a record amount of JGBs this month to maintain the ceiling.

☆ Japan yields tumble below policy cap after BOJ keeps status quo
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The 10-year yield was last down 10.5 basis points at 0.395%, which would mark the biggest one-day decline in seven years. It was at 0.51% prior to the BOJ decision. Ten-year JGB futures jumped when they resumed trading following the midday break, trading up as much as 1.81 points to 146.65, the highest since Dec. 20. "If they had expanded the band again or terminated YCC, yields would rise, which would be a de facto rate hike," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. The 10-year yield has repeatedly breached the BOJ's ceiling, only to close back at the 0.5% limit on each day.

☆ BOJ crafts new weapon to defend yield control policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TOKYO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan on Wednesday amended rules for a fund-supply market operation to use it as a new tool to prevent long-term interest rates from rising too much, in a show of its resolve to maintain yield curve control (YCC) for the time being. Under the amended rules, the central bank can offer funds of up to 10 years against collateral to financial institutions for both fixed- and variable-rate loans. After announcing the new rules, the BOJ said it will offer five-year loans under the fund-supply operation with a duration of between Jan. 24, 2023 and Jan. 24, 2028. Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of Japan keeps yield control policy unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

MARKET REACTION:The Japanese stock market cheered the BOJ's decision with the Nikkei share average (.N225) jumping more than 2% after the midday break. Therefore, among equities, we think Japanese financials sector will have a rerating of valuations over the next 3-6 months." That could escalate when the new governor of the bank will be announced and towards the policy meeting in March." MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE"The can has been kicked down the road and the attention will shift to the next meeting. CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"I think the speculations will still continue.

[1/2] A man walks at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. At a two-day policy meeting, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The central bank also made no change to its guidance that allows the 10-year bond yield to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target. The decision to keep settings unchanged sent the dollar surging nearly 2% against the yen, its biggest one-day percentage jump since June 17. It also revised up the inflation forecast for fiscal 2024 to 1.8%, from 1.6% seen three months ago.

☆ BOJ keeps yield control policy unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TOKYO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan on Wednesday maintained ultra-low interest rates, including its 0.5% cap for the 10-year bond yield, defying market expectations it would phase out its massive stimulus programme in the wake of rising inflationary pressure. At a two-day policy meeting, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The central bank also made no change to its guidance that allows the 10-year bond yield to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target. The decision follows the BOJ's surprise move last month to double the yield band, a tweak that analysts say has failed to correct market distortions caused by its heavy bond buying. Reporting by Leika Kihara, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Kantaro Komiya and Daniel Leussink; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Asian shares tentative, Japan yields close to policy cap ahead of BOJ meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SummarySummary Companies Asian shares mixed; Nikkei up 0.6%Markets eye change to yield policy from BOJ meeting on WedJapan yields retreat from policy cap; Yen eases from 7-mth highOil extend gains on China optimismSYDNEY, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Asian shares were mixed on Wednesday while Japanese yields hugged a policy cap, with markets anxiously awaiting a pivotal Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting that could see the world's third largest economy shift away from decades of ultra-low interest rates. In early Wednesday trade, however, the 10-year yield fell to 0.485% before returning to 0.5%. China's blue chips (.CSI300) rose 0.2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) was 0.2% lower. It has been undermined by falling U.S. bond yields as markets wager the Federal Reserve can be less aggressive in hiking rates. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose slightly to 3.5402% from its U.S. close of 3.535%, partly in anticipation of the BOJ tweaking its policy.

Japan's 10-year bond yield, trading at 0.4%, fell on Wednesday but is not far off its highest levels since 2015. Total holdings of foreign bonds by Japanese institutional investors, excluding Japan's $1 trillion reserve portfolio, reached $3 trillion at their peak. GOING HOMEThe implications of higher inflation and a possible end to ultra-low rates are not lost on Japanese investors. Still, anticipating a shift, Japanese investors sold a net 2.1 trillion yen ($15.94 billion) of foreign bonds in December, marking a fourth straight month of selling. According to Nomura, Japanese investors have been far more active buyers of global and overseas equities than domestic stocks in the last decade.

☆ Key moments in BOJ's monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

1999February - BOJ introduces zero interest rate policy. 2000August - BOJ raises short-term target to 0.25%, a move criticised as premature as Japan suffers a domestic banking crisis. 2001March - BOJ adopts quantitative easing (QE), shifts policy target from interest rates to pace of money printing. 2016January - BOJ adds negative interest rate policy, and applies a 0.1% charge to a small pool of excess reserves financial institutions park with the central bank. July - BOJ eases monetary policy, ramps up ETF buyingSeptember - BOJ adopts yield curve control (YCC), shifts policy target to interest rates from pace of money printing and introduces 10-year bond yield target of around 0%.

☆ Japan yields stay above policy cap as BOJ sticks to status quo
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond yields remained above the central bank's 0.5% policy ceiling on Wednesday, after the Bank of Japan unanimously decided to keep its yield curve controls in place. The benchmark yield was up 1 basis point at 0.51% as of 0250 GMT. In a relatively volatile session for cash bonds, the yield had started out flat and then eased as much as 1.5 basis points at one point to 0.485%. The 10-year yield has repeatedly breached the BOJ's ceiling, only to close back at the 0.5% limit on each day. Ten-year JGB futures were in the midday break at the time of the policy decision.

☆ Factbox: Key dates to watch out for on BOJ policy, leadership change
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) also awaits a leadership transition as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's second five-year term ends in April. Below are key dates to watch:BOJ LEADERSHIP RACEPrime Minister Fumio Kishida will hand-pick nominees for the governor and deputy governor posts from a list crafted by his close aides and finance ministry officials. People seen as top candidates for the BOJ governor post include incumbent deputy governor Amamiya, as well as former deputy governors Hiroshi Nakaso and Hirohide Yamaguchi. The subsequent meeting will be held on April 27-28 under a new BOJ leadership. The new BOJ governor will also be busy with international meetings.

☆ Morning Bid: Japan hesitates
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Judging by Wednesday's reaction, world markets reckon Japan will eventually abandon its ultra-loose monetary policy despite a stubborn doubling down this week - and overseas ructions may be less than feared. But after some wild gyrations on the initial announcement, the market reaction was rather muted on balance. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) ended 2.5% higher, but it closed before the yen rebound in European hours. The release of December U.S. producer price, retail sales and industrial production numbers later on Wednesday now takes centre stage. U.S. Treasury auctions 20-year bonds* Bank of Japan policy decision.

☆ The BoJ doesn't want to deliver a 'rate shock' to the economy: Investment management firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe BoJ doesn't want to deliver a 'rate shock' to the economy: Investment management firmAninda Mitra of BNY Mellon Investment Management says the Bank of Japan has "begun to shift in a direction … where the destination is quite clear."

☆ BoJ governor Kuroda's final meeting in March will be a 'very tough' one: Research institute
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBoJ governor Kuroda's final meeting in March will be a 'very tough' one: Research instituteHiromi Yamaoka of the Future Institute of Research says it will be Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's last opportunity to review and revise the current yield curve control framework.

☆ Bank of Japan has learnt danger of half-measures
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) made no adjustments to its yield-curve control (YCC) policy that keeps interest rates ultra-low on Wednesday. However, that tweak’s failure to reduce the need of central bank intervention has left the BOJ with little appetite for more compromises. Instead Kuroda rolled out a new tool to hold interest rates down, signaling intervention will continue. CONTEXT NEWSThe Bank of Japan on Jan. 18 kept its ultra-low interest rates policy unchanged and maintained a bond yield cap band it has struggled to defend. Under the amended rules, the central bank can offer funds of up to 10 years against collateral to financial institutions for both fixed and variable-rate loans.

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