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The fate of the global economy may rest on the shoulders of one company: TSMC. That's because there could be trillions of dollars' worth of economic activity tied to that one company: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world's biggest chipmaker. Ann Wang/ReutersThe semiconductor industry has its roots in the US, as much of the research and development is done on US soil. According to a 2021 report from the Semiconductor Industry Association, in 1990 the US produced 37% of the world's chip supply. These days, the US is responsible for only 12% of global chip production.
The MSCI Semiconductor Index , a benchmark for chip stocks that's down by 43% this year, reflects the wider market's sentiment toward a potential slowdown in economic growth. In such an environment, some investors have begun to ask whether it might be prudent to dump chip stocks in favor of companies in other outperforming sectors. The portfolio manager revealed that he prefers holding on to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company despite a 35% decline in the company's shares this year. The chip sector has historically run in boom and bust cycles. During economic growth, consumer demand for computers, laptops, and phones outstrips semiconductor manufacturing capacity, making the sector very profitable.
Buying on the Bad Chip News
  + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Dan Gallagher | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Winter is coming for companies that make semiconductor manufacturing gear. The prospect is warming investors’ hearts. Lam Research posted strong results for its fiscal first quarter late Wednesday. Revenue and operating earnings exceeded Wall Street’s forecasts, and revenue growth actually accelerated from the last two quarters, which were constrained by component shortages that prevented Lam and many of its peers from shipping finished gear to customers. Catching up on those shipments will continue to benefit Lam in the near-term; the company projected $5.1 billion in revenue for the December quarter, which was 6% above analysts’ projections.
Semiconductor stocks have been beaten down all year — thanks to waning chip demand and the easing of supply chain disruptions that hobbled the sector at the peak of the Covid pandemic. The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down around 44% year-to-date — a bloodbath even by this year's bear market standard. Hedge fund manager David Neuhauser said he believes Intel now looks "really inviting," with the company having lost a significant chunk of its market value so far this year. So, if there was one stock I would look at, it would be Intel today," Neuhauser said. Against the backdrop of these macro headwinds and intensifying competition in the sector, chip companies are looking to bolster their position.
TSMC and other chip makers are likely to face pressure to increase the proportion of production in the U.S. and U.S. allies. TOKYO—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is considering expanding its production capacity in Japan, people familiar with the matter said, in what would be a move by the world’s largest contract chip maker to reduce geopolitical risk. The Japanese government has signaled that it would like TSMC to expand in the country beyond a factory already under construction, but no decision has been made yet and TSMC is studying the feasibility, these people said.
HSINCHU, Taiwan, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Rising Taiwan-China and U.S.-China tensions have brought "more serious" challenges for the semiconductor industry, the chairman of Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC (2330.TW) said on Wednesday. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterSpeaking at the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association's annual convention, TSMC Chairman Mark Liu said: "The U.S.-China trade conflict and the escalation of cross-Strait tensions have brought more serious challenges to all industries, including the semiconductor industry." In recent years, China's government has "never stopped promoting its domestic semiconductor industry", including chip design, manufacturing, and packaging, he added. The United States has also passed its CHIPS Act to vigorously support local research and development and manufacturing, Liu said. Liu said he looked forward to Taiwan's industry, government and academia developing "more concrete, constructive measures" on industrial policies related to innovation, research, talent education and retention "to maintain Taiwan's most critical semiconductor industry advantages".
Europe's largest technology company also said it did not expect a large impact from U.S. sanctions on China. This resulted in record bookings in the third quarter of around 8.9 billion euros," he said in a statement. ASML's backlog is now at 38 billion euros, and it is seeking to expand its own production capacity by 2025. ASML reported third-quarter net profit of 1.7 billion euros ($1.7 billion) on sales of 5.8 billion euros, beating analyst forecasts of profit of 1.42 billion euros and 5.41 billion euros in sales. ASML has been restricted by the Dutch government in shipping its best machines to China, due to U.S. diplomatic influence, since 2019.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Limited at Hsinchu Science Park. Shares of the world's largest chip maker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company rose as much as 5% on Wednesday morning in Asia after Morgan Stanley recommended the stock. Computer chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is weighing a potential expansion in Japan as tensions between China and the West continue to create challenges for the company, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday. The factory currently under construction in Japan is meant to focus on less-advanced chips used in automobiles, for example, but additional capacity could focus on more-advanced technology, the Journal reported. The U.S. has sought to reduce its reliance on foreign chip manufacturing by passing funding to help promote domestic production facilities.
Travelers (TRV) – Travelers added 1% in premarket trading after beating top and bottom line estimates for its latest quarter. Nasdaq (NDAQ) – Nasdaq gained 1.5% in premarket action after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue for the third quarter. Netflix (NFLX) – Netflix surged 12.2% in premarket trading after reporting it added 2.4 million subscribers during its latest quarter. United Airlines (UAL) – United Airlines jumped 5.3% in premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results and issuing an upbeat earnings forecast for the current quarter amid a continued surge in travel demand. ASML (ASML) – ASML reported better-than-expected quarterly sales and profit, as the semiconductor manufacturing equipment maker managed to thrive despite an overall industry slowdown.
One potential nearer-term solution for companies that rely on semiconductors: advanced data analytics and artificial intelligence tools to help manage supply issues. "The semiconductor supply chain is still constrained," said Brandon Kulik, semiconductor industry leader and principal at Deloitte Consulting. "Organizations can leverage data analytics tools for deeper insights across the supply chain," Tandon said. Rand Technology, an independent semiconductor distributor, is using data analytics to solve customer challenges related to supply. Rand also uses advanced data analytics to identify trends and patterns that enable it to guide customers strategically through perilous market conditions.
Europe's largest technology company is working through a 33 billion euro ($32.5 billion) order backlog that stretches into 2024. Previous U.S. diplomacy has led to the Dutch government barring ASML from shipping its most advanced machines to China since 2019. However, in 2021, 16% of ASML sales still went to customers in China, an important manufacturer of older chips used in sensors and power controls. ASML will update markets in November as to whether it can expand production capacity significantly by 2025. ($1 = 1.0156 euros)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Toby Sterling Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
US-based fabs, or chip manufacturing plants, currently only account for 12% of the world’s modern semiconductor manufacturing capacity, according to data from the Semiconductor Industry Association trade group. Some 75% of the world’s modern chip manufacturing is now concentrated in East Asia – a majority of that in geopolitically-vulnerable Taiwan. Now, simply having the facilities already set up to produce or expand chip manufacturing gives Asia a big advantage. This is not yet the case in places like Arizona and Ohio, where plans to build massive chip manufacturing plants are already underway. If not, even the billions of dollars committed by the private and public sector may not be enough to reshore semiconductor manufacturing.
The term "technology" was referred to 40 times, up from 17 times in the report from the 2017 congress. Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING, said Xi's remarks addressed "the urgent need for talent and promoting self-sufficiency in technological advancement". "As such research spending on semiconductor technology should increase. On Monday, shares in Chinese information technology companies (.CSIINT) rose more than 1%, while semiconductor stocks (.CSIH30184) rose 0.7%. Venture capital (VC) has been allowed to invest in Chinese chip companies, with such firms receiving over $30 billion in VC cash between 2020-2021, according to Chinese investment research firm CVInfo.
Taiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua speaks during an interview with Reuters in Taipei, Taiwan, September 30, 2021. REUTERS/Ann WangTAIPEI, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Taiwan's economy minister has drummed up new business worth T$30 billion ($940 million) in meetings with top executives at four major tech firms in California's Silicon Valley, the ministry said on Saturday. Taiwan is a major semiconductor producer, home to the world's largest contract chip maker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (2330.TW), , and supplies most the world's major tech firms. "The visits are expected to bring back U.S. research and development investment and orders in Taiwan worth more than T$30 billion," it said, without elaborating. Wang said on Tuesday that if Taiwan remains safe, global supply chains of vital semiconductors would also be secure.
'Please send us more chips' Canadian lawmaker says in Taiwan
  + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Judy Sgro, a Canadian lawmaker of the federal Liberal Party, attends an interview with Reuters in Taipei, Taiwan, October 14, 2022. REUTERS/Ann WangTAIPEI, Oct 14 (Reuters) - A Canadian lawmaker who represents an area in the country's main auto producing province said on Friday he had asked Taiwan to "please send us more chips" to help resolve an ongoing shortage that continues to snarl some production lines. "I think every single meeting, including the upper levels of government, I brought up there are very major shortages of chips. It was a very broad conversation and every time we said 'please send us more chips'." Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Major Chinese technology firms have been put on export blacklists since then. Looking ahead, the latest package of U.S. controls will make a huge dent in China's technology ambitions. Paul Triolo technology policy lead, Albright StonebridgeThings did not look as "bleak" for China's semiconductors in 2017 as they do now, Triolo said. China's tech crackdownA major hallmark of Xi's last five years is how he has transformed China into one of the strictest regulatory regimes globally for technology. China's technology giants are also posting their slowest growth in history, partly due to tighter regulations.
WASHINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators will investigate units of Samsung (005930.KS), Qualcomm (QCOM.O) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (2330.TW) (TSMC) over certain semiconductor devices and integrated circuits and mobile devices using those components, the U.S. International Trade Commission said on Friday. The USITC will probe certain semiconductors manufactured by Samsung and TSMC, and certain integrated circuits from Samsung and Qualcomm following a complaint filed last month by New York-based Daedalus Prime LLC, it said in statements following voted to take up the probes. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Susan Heavey; Editing by Doina ChiacuOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
TAIPEI, Oct 14 (Reuters) - TSMC (2330.TW) shares jumped more than 4% on Friday morning outperforming the broader market (.TWII), after the Taiwanese chipmaker announced a forecast-beating third-quarter profit, though it struck a more cautious note on upcoming demand. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) , a major Apple Inc (AAPL.O) supplier and the world's largest contract chipmaker, posted on Thursday an 80% on-year surge in profit for the July-September period of 2022, but also trimmed capital spending by at least 10% for this year. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Christian SchmollingerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said that its third-quarter net profit rose 80% to a new record, and that it had been granted a one-year exemption from new U.S. restrictions on China’s chip sector, allowing it to keep expanding its facilities in the country. The world’s largest contract chip maker’s strong performance in the quarter was due to strong sales of its cutting-edge chips used in smartphones and other devices, as well as higher margins.
"We expect probably in 2023 the semiconductor industry will likely decline, but TSMC also is not immune," Wei told a media call. TOOL DELAYSTSMC, Asia's most valuable listed firm, cut its capital expenditure (capex) for 2022 to around $36 billion. "We say 2023 is still a growth year for TSMC, and the overall industry probably will decline," said Wei. Revenue for the quarter climbed 36% to $20.23 billion, versus TSMC's prior estimated range of $19.8 billion to $20.6 billion. Shares in TSMC have fallen almost 36% so far this year, giving it a market value of $323.7 billion.
TOKYO— Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. cut its capital expenditure forecast by about 10% this year, despite reporting a record quarterly profit surge, responding to headwinds including slowing global chip demand and rising costs. The world’s largest contract chip maker on Thursday posted an 80% increase in net income for the July-to-September quarter, mainly due to strong sales of its cutting-edge chips used in smartphones and other devices.
TSMC Isn’t Immune to the Chip Downturn—or Geopolitics
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Jacky Wong | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
TSMC headquarters in Taiwan. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. keeps exceeding expectations amid the malaise affecting the broader chip industry. But it isn’t immune to the sector slowdown and intensifying geopolitical risks. TSMC, the world’s largest made-to-order chip maker, on Thursday reported another stellar quarter of earnings for the three months ended in September. Revenue grew 15% from the previous quarter while operating profit increased 18%—both hit a record and were better than analysts’ expectations on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
TSMC's business has swelled thanks to a global chip shortage that was sparked by pandemic-fuelled sales of smartphones and laptops. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterRevenue for the quarter climbed 36% to $20.23 billion, versus TSMC's prior estimated range of $19.8 billion to $20.6 billion. Shares in TSMC have fallen almost 36% so far this year, giving it a market value of $323.7 billion. The stock fell 0.6% on Thursday, compared with a 2.1% fall for the benchmark index (.TWII). TSMC has said it has seen little impact from the current down cycle in the chip sector and expected its capacity to remain tight because long-term demand for TSMC's chips was "firmly in place".
AMSTERDAM, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Shares in Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML (ASML.AS) fell 7% on Thursday after its biggest customer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) cut its forecasts for capital spending by 10% this year, citing in part equipment delays. ASML, Europe's largest technology company, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The company's shares were down 7.0% at 385.10 euros ($371.93) at 1259 GMT. ASML has forecast third quarter sales of 5.1 billion -5.4 billion euros ($4.93 billion-$5.22 billion). ($1 = 1.0354 euros)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Toby Sterling; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
TSMC ignores geopolitical elephant in room
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Executives at the $324 billion Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW) barely addressed questions regarding Washington's technology export controls on China during its earnings call on Thursday. Against a worsening geopolitical backdrop and looming global recession, such deliberate ambiguity will be cold comfort to shareholders. Analysts at Bernstein say TSMC could lose anywhere between 0.4% and 5% of its 2023 revenue. Rising tensions between Washington and Beijing, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan, will make it harder for TSMC to stay neutral and continue to sell to both sides. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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