A peaceful early expansion environment with growth, low inflation, and falling rates starts to sour in the early overheating stage, when red-hot growth and low rates spark high inflation.
How to invest in a low inflation economic cycleEarly expansion: Expansion, low inflation, falling ratesWhat works: Stocks broadly outperform, followed by income stocks and real estate investment trusts (REITs).
How to invest in a high inflation economic cycleEarly expansion: Expansion, low inflation, falling ratesWhat works: Stocks broadly work best, followed by income stocks and REITs.
Late overheating: Expansion, high inflation, rising ratesWhat works: Income stocks, commodities, and stocks tied to real assets outperform with growth, inflation, and rates high.
Early stagflation: Contraction, high inflation, rising ratesWhat works: TIPS outperform as growth weakens and inflation stays high while income stocks do fine with inflation high.