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The government nominated academic Kazuo Ueda to head the Bank of Japan as the decade tenure of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda nears its close. Among nearly 500 major companies polled, 47% said the BOJ should modify policies that allow interest rates to go negative. Even so, a majority of companies, 62%, said a normalisation of monetary policy would not have a good or bad impact on their business. Asked to rate Kuroda's legacy at the central bank, respondents gave him middling to positive grades, overall. "There are pros and cons," a manager in the electronics industry said about the Kuroda BOJ.
Morning Bid: Hang on a minute
  + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
And so a speech from New York Fed chief John Williams make give a better steer on current thinking. Markets are now priced for a Fed 'terminal rate' in the 5.25-5.50% range by July and no cut from there by year-end. European central bankers are also talking tough as the region's economies dodge recession and inflation stays high. But geopolitical concerns rankle again ahead of Friday's anniversary, with Russia unilaterally withdrawing from a key nuclear arms control treaty. As G20 finance chiefs meet in India, the world is watching closely the extent of the alliance between Beijing and Moscow.
"Japanese companies will issue their outlook for 2023 by May, which will be based on the current macro environment. So the forecast will be conservative," said Hikaru Yasuda, chief equity strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities. "But as the environment is not as bad as companies (now) expect, they will slowly raise their forecast towards the end of the year." "Companies whose businesses are linked with China are expected to perform well," said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist and fund manager, T&D Asset Management. "Japanese equities are undervalued due to caution for the currency movement," said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities.
A former commercial banker, Tamura repeated his view that the BOJ must at some point conduct a comprehensive assessment of its monetary policy framework by weighing the benefits of costs of current ultra-loose policy. "We're now in a phase where we need to scrutinise whether Japan can achieve a positive wage-inflation cycle. Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield around zero as part of efforts to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. Tamura said the BOJ's decision in December was aimed at minimising the side-effects of YCC and making its monetary easing more sustainable, not at tightening policy. With the 10-year bond yield breaching the cap, the central bank said on Wednesday it would conduct emergency bond purchases to fend off a renewed market attack on YCC.
TOKYO, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Japan's 10-year government bond yield on Wednesday breached the top end of the Bank of Japan's policy band for a second straight session, prompting the central bank to step into the market with emergency bond buying and offering of loans. read moreThe yield on 10-year JGBs climbed to 0.505% on Wednesday, breaking through the central bank's 0.5% cap and marking its highest level since Jan. 18. The BOJ bought 300 billion yen ($2.2 billion) of Japanese government bonds with maturities of five to 10 years and 100 billion yen of bonds with maturities of 10 to 25 years. In its struggle to contain elevated yields, the BOJ bought a record 23.69 trillion yen ($175.69 billion) worth of government bonds in January. This would be the fourth time that BOJ provides such loans since last month after amending rules for its funds-supply operation.
Asia equities fall on fear of hawkish central bank hikes
  + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Selena Li | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
"It concerns the market that central banks will have to hike rates a lot more to curb inflation," said Kerry Craig, JPMorgan Asset Management's global market strategist. New Zealand's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points to a more than 14-year high of 4.75% on Wednesday. read moreThe central bank said it expected to keep tightening further to ensure inflation returned to its target range over the medium term. Japan's Nikkei share index (.N225) fell 1.25% on Wednesday following a Tuesday PMI report showing the factory sector had contracted. The dollar index fell 0.077%, but analyst expect interest rate rises to lift the dollar, hurting emerging market equities, which benefited from a falling dollar.
BOJ's Kuroda: Wage growth to accelerate on tight job market
  + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
TOKYO, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday wage growth will likely accelerate as companies increase pay to compensate households for the higher cost of living, and cope with an intensifying labour shortage. Speaking in parliament, Kuroda also said the central bank will continue to scrutinise currency market moves and their impact on Japan's economy in guiding monetary policy. Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Dollar rally loses steam as traders wait on Fed, data
  + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SINGAPORE, Feb 21 (Reuters) - The dollar was parked below recent peaks on Tuesday, as a three-week rally faded and traders waited on economic data to figure on whether it's warranted to push the dollar up any further. Strong U.S. labour data and sticky inflation have raised U.S. rate expectations and supported the dollar's rally so far this month - Tuesday's European and U.S. manufacturing data and Friday's core PCE price index will guide the next steps. "I suspect that further significant dollar strength will require the Fed Funds futures market to start pricing in a 50 basis point rate hike in March," he said. The New Zealand dollar held at $0.6259 ahead of a central bank meeting on Wednesday. Overnight the Swedish crown jumped as inflation turned sticky and central bank minutes showed policymakers prepared to keep hiking.
The monthly Reuters Tankan, which closely tracks the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) key tankan quarterly survey, found the sentiment index for big manufacturers stood at -5 in February, little changed from the prior month's -6. The survey asks respondents whether the business situation is good, not so good or bad. "We have not been able to transfer rising costs of materials, gas and electricity to our customers. On top of that, wages are rising, all of which squeezes the business environment," a manager of a metal processing firm wrote in the survey. Japan's economy averted recession in the fourth quarter but rebounded much less than expected as business investment slumped.
Asia shares creep higher, wary on Fed and BOJ outlooks
  + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
All of which made for a cautious start and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) nudged up 0.7%, after sliding 2.2% last week. The bounce was led by Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) which firmed 1.1% as Beijing kept interest rates steady as expected, having already poured liquidity into the banking system in recent days. CORE PCE A RISKMinutes of the Fed's latest meeting due on Wednesday should add colour on the deliberations, though they have been superseded somewhat by barnstorming numbers on January payrolls and retail sales. The Fed's favoured inflation indicator, the core PCE index, is seen rising 0.4%, the biggest gain in five months, while the annual pace may have slowed just a fraction to 4.3%. There are also at least five Fed presidents speaking this week, to provide running commentary.
All of which made for a cautious start and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) nudged up 0.3%, after sliding 2.2% last week. Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) firmed 0.9% as Beijing kept interest rates steady as expected, having already poured liquidity into the banking system in recent days. CORE PCE A RISKMinutes of the Fed's last meeting due on Wednesday should add colour on the deliberations, though they have been superseded somewhat by barnstorming numbers on January payrolls and retail sales. The Fed's favoured inflation indicator, the core PCE index, is seen rising 0.4%, the biggest gain in five months, while the annual pace may have slowed just a fraction to 4.3%. There are also at least five Fed presidents speaking this week, to provide running commentary.
All of which made for a cautious start and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was largely flat, after sliding 2.2% last week. Markets have steadily lifted the expected peak for Fed funds to 5.28%, while sharply scaling back rate cuts for later this year and next. There are also at least five Fed presidents speaking this week, to provide running commentary. Investors are anxiously awaiting Friday's testimony from the newly nominated head of the Bank of Japan, and his thinking on the future of yield curve control (YCC) and super-easy policy. Oil prices were trying to steady after shedding around 4% last week amid signs of ample supply and concerns over future demand.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said on Friday it has decided to launch a pilot program in April for issuing a digital yen, moving a step closer to launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in a country that lags in digitizing its payment systems. The move, which was widely expected, will follow two years of experiments the central bank has been conducting to decide whether to issue a CBDC. "Our hope is that the pilot program will lead to improved designs through discussion with private businesses," BOJ Executive Director Shinichi Uchida said in opening remarks at the central bank's meeting with private-sector executives. While it was up to the public to decide whether to actually issue a digital yen, the BOJ will "continue to make thorough preparations" when circumstances lead to the launch of a CBDC, the central bank said in a statement.
Dollar jumps to six-week high on higher rate expectations
  + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar surged on Friday to hit a six-week high against a basket of currencies as a bout of resilient economic data out of the United States raised market expectations that more interest rate hikes were in the offing. The latest data releases gave the U.S. dollar a leg up, knocking sterling to a fresh six-week low of $1.1952 on Friday. Similarly, the kiwi tumbled to a six-week trough of $0.6228, while the euro bottomed at $1.0652, its lowest since Jan. 9. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose to a fresh six-week top of 104.31 and was on track for a third straight week of gains. U.S. Treasury yields have also surged on the back of further hawkish rate repricing, with the two-year yields last at 4.6762%.
Morning Bid: What landing?
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Forget soft landing, equities seem to be betting on no landing for the U.S. economy: a sublime state where steady growth and low unemployment can co-exist with slowing inflation and higher interest rates. That at least would explain the resilience of stocks to blockbuster U.S. retail data and the rise of 10-year Treasury yields to seven-week highs. After an initial dip, Wall Street rallied into the close and futures have since nudged higher, lifting Asian markets in the process. That's a marked divergence from the Blue Chip consensus which has been tipping a sharp contraction for the quarter.
LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The world’s third largest economy picked Kazuo Ueda to be governor of the Bank of Japan. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the challenges facing this outsider as international investors continue to bet against the BOJ keeping rates low. props.value : props.error;Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterSubscribe to Breakingviews' podcasts, Viewsroom and The Exchange. Editing by Katrina HamlinOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Kazuo Ueda, a 71-year-old university professor who has kept a low profile despite strong credentials as a monetary policy expert, ticked some important boxes. While he was not even on the list of dark horse candidates floated by the media, Ueda was well known in global central bank circles. The bank's preferred choices were incumbent deputy governor Amamiya, as well as former deputies Hiroshi Nakaso and Hirohide Yamaguchi, given their deep knowledge on monetary policy. Matsuno said he hoped the BOJ works closely with the government and guides monetary policy flexibly, when asked whether Ueda's appointment could lead to a retreat from Abenomics. While he warned of the rising cost of the BOJ's yield control policy, Ueda has called for the need to keep monetary policy loose to ensure Japan stably achieves the bank's 2% inflation target.
Kazuhiro Nogi | Afp | Getty ImagesBlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, cut Japanese stocks to "underweight" – as Japan is set to appoint a new governor to lead its central bank. "We downgrade Japanese stocks on policy uncertainty and a worsening economic environment," BlackRock's research arm said Monday, before the government submitted its central bank picks to parliament. U.S. Treasury yields spiked, with the 10-year note and the 30-year note jumping 7 and 8 basis points respectively. One possibility is the Bank of Japan further widening its tolerance range beyond 50 basis points. Nikkei separately reported earlier this month that the central bank purchased 23.7 trillion yen ($182 billion) of JGBs in January, a new record high.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office on July 14, 2022 in Tokyo. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida said on Wednesday Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor nominee Kazuo Ueda is the best fit to lead the central bank as he is a well known economist globally and has high expertise in financial field. The appointment of Ueda was made after taking the market impact as well economic and wage growth and price stability targets into consideration, Kishida told a parliamentary committee, adding that internal and external communication skills were also a factor in the decision. "We expect the BOJ to continue to conduct appropriate monetary policy operations in coordination with the government, taking into account economic, price and financial conditions," Kishida said. The government named academic Ueda as its pick to become next central bank governor Tuesday.
SINGAPORE, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar found some support on Wednesday after stubbornly high U.S. inflation suggested interest rates are going to remain high for longer than investors had expected. The U.S. dollar climbed to a six-week high of 133.30 yen and sat not far below that at 132.73 early in the Asia session. "Inflation remains too high," Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso said. There is not much good news for (the Fed) that is looking for inflation to head down much further towards its 2% target." Federal Reserve officials said the U.S. central bank will need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation.
Kazuo Ueda Is Nominated to Lead the Bank of Japan
  + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Megumi Fujikawa | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Kazuo Ueda served on the Bank of Japan’s policy board from 1998 to 2005. TOKYO—The Japanese government on Tuesday nominated Kazuo Ueda to become the next governor of the Bank of Japan , the first leadership change in a decade after Haruhiko Kuroda ‘s aggressive monetary easing. Mr. Ueda is a former University of Tokyo professor of economics and served on the BOJ’s policy board from 1998 to 2005.
At MIT, he studied economics under Stanley Fischer, whose students include former U.S. Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke and former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. He is a good listener and a consensus-builder, rather than a leader with a strong view on the direction of monetary policy, they say. "His style is to discuss monetary policy based on facts and evidence," said Tetsuya Inoue, who was Ueda's staff secretary when he was a central bank board member. In a column published in July, Ueda warned against raising rates prematurely in response to cost-push inflation - a sign he would be in no rush to tighten monetary policy. Upon approval by parliament, Ueda will assume the top BOJ post on April 9 and chair his first policy-setting meeting on April 27-28.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan's new governor won't lead to 'significant departure' from policies: Portfolio managerRichard Kaye of Comgest says inflation in Japan is still lower than that of other economies.
[1/3] FILE PHOTO-A woman in a traditional costume makes her way at a shopping district in Tokyo, Japan November 15, 2022. "From a negative growth in July-September, the rebound isn't very impressive," said Toru Suehiro, chief economist at Daiwa Securities. But it's difficult to project a strong recovery partly due to pressure from rising inflation," he said. RECESSION RISKSFor the full year, the economy expanded 1.1% compared with a 2.1% increase in 2021, the data showed. Economy minister Shigeyuki Goto told reporters the economy was on course for a recovery as the pandemic's impact fades.
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, eased 0.019% to 103.17, having slipped 0.34% overnight. NEW BOJ GOVInvestors are also awaiting the formal nomination for the next Bank of Japan governor. Sources told Reuters that Japan's government was likely to appoint academic Kazuo Ueda as the next BOJ governor. Ueda, a former BOJ policy board member and an academic at Kyoritsu Women's University, is considered an expert on monetary policy but had not even been seen as a dark horse candidate for the top job. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.23% to 132.12 per dollar, having slipped 0.7% in the previous session.
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