The "misery index" is the addition of the unemployment rate to the annualized inflation rate in the U.S.
It has correctly predicted 15 of the past 16 races for the White House, including every presidential matchup since 1980, according to an analysis by research firm Strategas.
This index now sits at 7.02, below the level that Strategas has found would be consistent with the incumbent party losing the election.
Below a 7.353 level is needed in October for the incumbent party — in this case, the Harris-led Democrats — to come out on top, according to Strategas.
The firm found this level through exclusive analysis of where the misery index would need to sit for the party currently in office to retain power, based on history.
Persons:
Kamala Harris, Harris, —
Organizations:
White
Locations:
U.S