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HONG KONG, May 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Investing in China need not be too stressful, provided you avoid investing in Chinese companies. A spending pop in the transport, food and beverage and hospitality sectors helped lift first-quarter GDP to 4.5%. But that data was flattered by comparison to a grim 2022, and April data on imports, inflation and bank loans all disappointed. While Beijing’s crackdowns on domestic technology companies and property developers have eased, other risks are rising. Separately, quarterly revenue at Alibaba is expected to rise 3% year-on-year to 211 billion yuan ($30.5 billion) in the three months to March, according to the average analyst forecast on Refinitiv.

Barkin said he remained open-minded on whether the Fed at its June 13-14 policy meeting should raise the benchmark policy rate for an 11th straight time or leave it at the current range between 5.00% and 5.25%. I do wonder whether we're not going to need more impact on demand to bring inflation down to where we need to go," Barkin said, laying out a potential case for further rate increases. Barkin said he is comfortable overall with the Fed's move earlier this month to a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach after having raised the policy rate by 5 percentage points since March 2022 in an effort to lower the highest inflation in 40 years. "I'm still seeing data that suggests a hot job market and enduring inflation," he said. "I continue to believe that inflation will last longer than perhaps market measures of inflation compensation would suggest.

☆ New Zealand, Wellington: hostel fire kills at least six, according to report
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Tatiana Arias | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

CNN —At least six people have reportedly died after a fire erupted inside a hostel in New Zealand’s capital city of Wellington early Tuesday local time. Emergency services survey the scene after a fire on May 16, 2023 in Wellington, New Zealand. Hagen Hopkins/Getty ImagesFirefighters rushed to the hostel shortly after midnight and were able to evacuate 52 people, Wellington’s Fire and Emergency District Manager Nick Pyatt told local media. According to authorities, about 100 people were believed to be inside the building, Newshub reports. The cause of the fire remains unknown, Pyatt said, adding that there will be a formal investigation into the blaze.

Her mother Sarah — a former deli shop owner — was bored with retirement and had decided to open an ice cream shop in Bethesda, Maryland. "To be honest, at first I was like, 'ice cream shop?'" Running the ice cream shopDespite Sarah's Handmade Ice Cream successful grand opening, it took over six months for the business to become "a well-oiled machine," Park says. Instead, Park and her mother donate ice cream to local nonprofits and community organizations, which has attracted loyal customers in the Bethesda area. Within a few months of opening the first store, Park realized the business didn't have to be limited to just "a mom-and-daughter shop."

☆ As Turkey heads to the polls, currency traders are bracing for absolute chaos
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey is expected to head to the polls on Sunday. In the event of a victory by Erdogan, it's "highly likely the Turkish lira collapses within months," the founder of advisory firm Cribstone Strategic Macro Mike Harris told CNBC. "Ultimately the lack of confidence in investment will mean that the Turkish Lira will probably be among the worst performing currencies in the world for some time," he said. Turkey's monetary policy prioritizes the pursuit of growth and export competition rather than assuaging inflation. Erdogan endorses the unconventional view that raising interest rates increases inflation, rather than taming it.

☆ Russia's scramble to find microchips for its weapons hints at struggles the US and China could face in a future war
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Stavros Atlamazoglou | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Russia's scramble to find microchips for its weapons hints at struggles the US and China could face in a future war. Russian strikes and microchipsA Ukrainian military official with electronics from a destroyed Russian T-90M tank in Kyiv in March. Oleksii Chumachenko/Anadolu Agency via Getty ImagesWestern-made microchips and processors power many of Russia's weapon systems, even its most advanced missiles and aircraft. ASML is the only firm that produces extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, lithography machines, which are needed to make advanced microchips. A US-Chinese clash over Taiwan, or some other disruption, like a Chinese blockade, that halts exports of advanced semiconductors would affect numerous other industries.

☆ Washington is at an impasse on the debt ceiling. Here’s what that might mean for your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Income-focused investors seeking yield and safety in Treasury bills are likely nervous as debt ceiling rhetoric heats up in Washington, but they should take a breather before they dump these assets. In the short-term Treasury market, investors are already showing some signs of anxiety. In that case, holders of short-term T-bills could see declines in their portfolio values as yields spike, he added. Review your holdings Now could be a good time to review your bond holdings, particularly the short-term T-bills that are seeing a big jump in yields. But the longer-term advice is to snap up longer-dated bonds to prepare for the day the Federal Reserve starts to dial back its tight monetary policy.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Hakeem Jeffries, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Kathy Jones, Gustavo Schwenkler, Jones, Thomas McLoughlin, McLoughlin, Christine Benz, Jamie Hopkins, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Santa Clara University Leavey School of Business, Federal Reserve, UBS, Morningstar, Carson Group Locations: Washington, D, U.S

☆ Twitter’s new encrypted message feature criticized by security and privacy experts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Brian Fung | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

In addition, encrypted messages may only be sent between two individuals, not groups. Both participants must either have exchanged direct messages in the past, or the recipient of an encrypted message must already follow the sender. Twitter’s former chief information security officer, Lea Kissner, publicly pleaded with Twitter’s current engineering team to improve the feature quickly. And it announced that its goal is to provide a similar level of protection as other privacy-preserving apps that come highly recommended by security experts, such as Signal. The lack of so-called end-to-end encryption makes Twitter’s implementation largely meaningless, security experts said.

☆ Instant View: US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. I think the Fed will raise rates again in June and then pause. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing."

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsInvestors and analysts took the Labor Department report on the whole as supporting the prospect that the Fed would pause its rate increases at the June 13-14 meeting. The PCE, which is the Fed's preferred gauge for its 2% inflation target, has been running at more than twice that level. Continued readings like the ones in April could weaken the case for pausing rate hikes. That's how increases in its policy rate influence economic activity. FEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting.

☆ US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing." The other thing is shelter, a huge component of CPI and it came in a little bit weaker."

"When you get into higher interest rates ... you look to your collateral," Rodeheaver said in an interview. "We are tightening on price and profitability ... That is going to slow lending a bit." "The economy has started to slow in an orderly fashion" in response to higher interest rates, Jefferson said, calling tighter credit conditions "part of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy." Powell, however, said he felt the impact of the credit shock "remains uncertain," and his own baseline outlook does not include a recession. Bank lending dipped about 1.7% in the two weeks following SVB's collapse, but has risen since then and recouped about a third of the decline.

☆ Yellen says pressures remain on some U.S. regional bank stocks but system sound
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discusses "U.S.-China Economic Relationship" during a forum hosted by the Johns Hopkins University at the Nitze Building in Washington, U.S., April 20, 2023. REUTERS/Sarah SilbigerWASHINGTON, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday that some regional bank stock prices remained under pressure, but deposits had stabilized and regulators stood ready to use the same tools used in recent bank rescues if more contagion fears arose. Yellen told CNBC in a live interview that some of the selling of bank shares was due to earnings strain, but added that the "bar is pretty high" for imposing any controls on short selling of bank stocks. But short selling more broadly, the bar is pretty high to put controls on," Yellen said. Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; Editing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Ukraine's special operators have been 'taking it to the Russians,' the head of US Special Operations Command says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Stavros Atlamazoglou | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Ukrainian special operators have been putting their US-provided training to use against Russia. Ukrainian special-operations forces will also have a key role in the outcome of those battles. Ukrainian commandos on the jobRomanian, Ukrainian, and US Army Green Berets train in Romania in May 2021. Roxana DavidovitsAs Russian forces poured into the country at the start of the war, Ukrainian special operators went hunting. SOCOM had also incorporated a focus on unconventional warfare, a specialty of US Army Special Forces, into its training.

☆ After weight loss, Alzheimer's may be next frontier for drugs like Ozempic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Natalie Grover | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, May 8 (Reuters) - Diabetes drugs that also promote weight loss such as Novo Nordisk’s (NOVOb.CO) Ozempic, becoming a darling of celebrities and investors, are being studied to tackle some of the most difficult-to-treat brain disorders, including Alzheimer’s disease. Those successes followed decades of futility that had left many questioning the validity of the amyloid theory behind most experimental Alzheimer's drugs. She said she has since been approached by pharmaceutical companies at an increasing pace, and is currently running an Alzheimer’s trial evaluating intranasal insulin in combination with another diabetes drug. Four companies with GLP-1 drugs, including two larger drugmakers, say they are watching for results of trials testing Novo's drug in Alzheimer's. Dementia affects more than 55 million people globally and the market for Alzheimer’s drugs is expected to grow to $9.4 billion by 2028 and for Parkinson’s to $6.6 billion, according to pharmaceutical data provider Citeline.

"The end of the COVID-19 public health emergency marks a tremendous transition for our country, for public health, and in my tenure as CDC Director," Walensky wrote to President Joe Biden in her resignation letter. "We have all benefited from her service and dedication to public health, and I wish her the best in her next chapter," Biden said in a statement. "For 75 years, CDC and public health have been preparing for COVID-19, and in our big moment, our performance did not reliably meet expectations," she told CDC staff last summer. Public health experts said Walensky wrestled with political and technical challenges during her tenure. "Dr. Walensky was put into place at the CDC at a time when the agency was basically captive to politicians which clearly hampered her ability to lead," he said.

☆ After 35 years in flight, the US military says it's done buying one of its most unique and controversial aircraft
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Stavros Atlamazoglou | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Since its first flight in 1989, the V-22 Osprey has provided a unique capability to the US military. One of them is the V-22 Osprey, a unique and controversial aircraft that has carried conventional troops and special operators around the world for two decades. US Navy/Vernon PughIn the three decades since its first flight, the V-22 Osprey has brought a distinct capability to the US military's aviation fleet, despite its troubled development. Conventional and special-ops missionsUS Air Force special tactics operators fast rope from a CV-22B during an exercise in the UK in April 2021. In August 2022, Air Force Special Operations Command grounded its CV-22s over issues with its clutch, which had caused several "safety incidents."

The path to the pause will roll out in marquee monthly data on the key topics of jobs and prices, but also weekly series tracking emerging concerns about the financial industry. Here's a guide to what's ahead:JOBS: Next release May 5The data calendar will let the Fed receive two monthly jobs reports, covering April and May, before its June 13-14 policy meeting. For the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the measure used to set the Fed's 2% inflation target, only the April report will be available. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsFEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting. The curtain of silence around the May meeting lifts on Friday, May 5, and Fed officials can speak publicly about their views through Friday, June 2.

As a member of the Fed's Board of Governors a decade ago, Powell called certain possible debt default responses by the Fed "loathsome." Accepting defaulted securities as collateral for Fed loans, or swapping "good" federal debt already held by the Fed for impaired debt held by private investors, would be an extreme variation on the theme - yet one that may prove less "loathsome" than the alternative economic collapse some predict would follow a default. To a central bank, with no budget constraint and an elastic time horizon, it's just a matter of waiting out the politicians. Powell joined the Fed in 2012 from a think tank where he focused on debt and deficit issues. A debt default may pose another tough decision for a Fed chair who's motto could well be to never say never.

☆ Link Between Long Telomeres and Long Life Is a Tall Tale, Study Finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Gina Kolata | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Cells have a molecular clock that determines how long they live. The clocks come in the form of caps on the end of chromosomes — the long twisted strings of DNA carrying the cells’ genes. Every time a cell divides, its telomeres get a little shorter, until finally they get so short that the cell dies. While short telomeres do lead to health problems, long telomeres lead to health problems of their own. Far from extending life, long telomeres appear to cause cancer and a blood disorder known as CHIP, a condition that increases the risk of blood cancers and heart disease.

Top of mind: inflation and the impact of a credit tightening Fed officials feel is still evolving in the wake of both higher interest rates and a financial sector rattled by the recent failure of three U.S. banks. "The case of avoiding a recession is in my view more likely than that of having a recession," Powell said. The shift in the Fed's approach was reflected in U.S. interest rate futures, which showed broad expectations for no hikes at either of the central bank's next two policy meetings. U.S. stocks initially held onto gains after the release of the Fed statement, but fell later in the afternoon and closed lower. "With the word 'determining' in place of 'anticipating,' (it) is essentially telling the markets that the Fed is now on pause."

The unanimous decision lifted the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range, the tenth consecutive increase since March 2022. Because of that, Powell said it's too soon to say the rate hike cycle is over. Economic growth remains modest, but "recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," the Fed said. The shift was reflected in U.S. interest rate futures prices, which showed broad expectations for no hikes at either of the Fed's next two meetings. "With the word 'determining' in place of 'anticipating' is essentially telling the markets that the Fed is now on pause."

Investors anticipate the U.S. central bank will follow through with a quarter-percentage-point rate hike at the end of its latest two-day policy meeting. The policy statement is due to be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak to reporters half an hour later. But the new statement, and Powell's elaboration on it, will have to reconcile a set of risks that have grown more into conflict. Between that consensus and other problems that have intensified in the meantime, the Fed is likely to at least open the door to the prospect that this hike will be the last of the current tightening cycle, absent a future inflation surprise. Doing otherwise might hint that those projections had changed, a hawkish tilt towards more rate hikes that the Fed won't want to close off but also won't want to guarantee.

New data for March showed the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed job seekers fell for the fourth consecutive month and hit the lowest level since October 2021. At roughly 1.64 to 1 the number remains far above the levels around 1.2 seen before the pandemic. In recent months the relationship between job openings and unemployment has kept that prospect alive. The number of estimated job openings has fallen from a peak of 12 million in March of 2022 to 9.59 million in March this year. The openings rate, expressed as a percentage of filled and available positions, has fallen from a high of 7.4 last spring to 5.8 in March.

The Fed's meeting will be followed with expected rate increases by the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of England next week. But the U.S. central bank is furthest along in the process, and may signal that this week's rate increase is the last, at least for now. Inflation has been edging down, gradually, with the main price index the Fed watches still more than double the central bank's 2% target. The anticipated quarter-percentage-point increase on Wednesday will put the target federal funds rate at roughly the same spot, between 5% and 5.25%. With this rate increase, Fed officials will hit a level that will be about 1 percentage point above the rate they consider to have a neutral impact on economic activity.

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