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☆ Bank of Japan keeps low rates as Kuroda sticks to script at swan song meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

At its two-day meeting that ended on Friday, the BOJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. It also left unchanged a band set around the 10-year yield target that allows the yield to rise up to 0.5%. “The decision to uphold policy rates comes at a cost. Many investors expect the central bank to phase out YCC when Kuroda’s successor, Kazuo Ueda, takes the helm in April. “The BOJ will likely abandon its 10-year bond yield target, while maintaining negative interest rates, to arrest distortions in the yield curve,” he said.

☆ European markets head for lower open as investors weigh economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets are heading for a lower open Thursday as investors digested more comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell reiterated his warning message to lawmakers that the central bank may raise interest rates higher than previously anticipated. However, he said he hasn't made up his mind about what the central bank will do regarding interest rates when it meets later in March. U.S. stock futures were flat on Wednesday night, while Asia-Pacific shares were mixed on Thursday as the Bank of Japan kicked off its two-day monetary policy meeting, with investors looking out for any policy changes that could accompany BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda's final meeting.

With the approval, government nominee Kazuo Ueda will officially succeed incumbent BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda whose second, five-year term ends on April 8. But the BOJ's current policy is a necessary, appropriate means to achieve 2% inflation," Ueda told parliament last month, signalling that he was in no rush to hike rates. "I'll succeed the policy in the context of seeking to hit the BOJ's 2% inflation stably and sustainably," Ueda replied. Hiroshi Shiratori, a professor at Japan's Hosei University, see the appointment of Ueda as a sign Kishida wants the BOJ to phase out the legacy policy of Abenomics. "Ueda is saying the BOJ will maintain low rates for now.

☆ Asia-Pacific shares poised to rise as BOJ Kuroda’s final meeting comes into spotlight
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he hasn't made up his mind about what the central bank will do regarding interest rates when it meets later in March. Speaking to the House Financial Services Committee, Powell said he and his colleagues will be assessing a raft of incoming inflation data, including reports next week on consumer and producer prices. The larger point, though, is we are not on a preset path and we will be guided by the incoming data and the evolving outlook." Powell shook markets Wednesday when he said he anticipates that if the inflation data remain hot, he expects rates will go higher than expected and at a faster pace. Markets now expect the Fed to raise its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.5 percentage point when the Federal Open Market Committee meets March 21-22.

☆ Markets start signalling Fed may be going too far - Amundi
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Marasciulo said bond market valuations looked better than a month ago after a sell-off that has seen benchmark U.S. and German government bond yields rise around 40 bps since February started. Near-term, Marasciulo said it made sense to bet against the market consensus, by favouring a 25 bps move from the Fed, through trades favouring a steepening of the U.S. yield curve. On the Bank of Japan, which meets on Friday for the last time under outgoing governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Marasciulo said an end to yield curve control is "very likely". "So some sort of reaction function from the BOJ would tell us that probably the yield curve control should be the first thing to be reconsidered." A termination of yield curve control, which has helped pin down Japanese government bond yields, would steepen global yield curves by raising risk premiums on bonds overall, Marasciulo added.

This is the market backdrop against which the BOJ delivers its last policy decision under Kuroda. It is widely expected to start reversing its super-loose policy later this year, once Kuroda has long left the building. The BOJ already tweaked Kuroda's 'yield curve control' policy in December, doubling the effective cap on the 10-year government bond yield to 0.50%. Markets have bet heavily that the BOJ will be forced to restore 'normal' bond market functioning by raising it again soon or even abandoning it. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ BOJ set to keep ultra-low rates at Kuroda's final policy meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"After conducting an examination of its policy framework, the BOJ will either abandon the 10-year yield target or shift to one targeting a shorter duration," she said. At the two-day meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is set to maintain its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. Some market players bet the BOJ could widen the band set around the 10-year yield target, allowing the yield to rise up to 0.75%, from the current 0.5%, as early as Friday. But many analysts polled by Reuters expect any tweak in YCC to happen after Ueda takes over as new governor. Ueda will chair his first policy meeting on April 27-28, when the board will produce closely watched, fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts extending through fiscal 2025.

☆ Powell's warning on higher U.S. rates pushes dollar to 3-mth high
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Higher rates benefit the dollar by improving its yield and as traders look for safety while global stockmarkets drop. The dollar hit a two-month high of $1.0528 to the euro , extending Tuesday's 1.2% jump. The Australian dollar has weakened for a similar reason as the Reserve Bank of Australia has softened its tone. Futures imply U.S. rates peaking above 5.6% and holding higher than 5.5% through 2023. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% in Asia trade to a more than three-month high of 105.86.

The precedent set at the "shunto" spring wage talks also influences wages at smaller firms that employ seven out of 10 Japanese workers and supply big manufacturers. The focus on job security, rather than higher pay, is blamed for keeping Japan's wage growth stagnant. WHAT WILL BE THE OUTCOME OF THE WAGE TALKS? Analysts expect big firms to offer wage hikes of around 3% in wage talks, which would be the fastest pace of increase since 1997 when Japan was on the cusp of deflation. Kishida has approached Japan's union umbrella Rengo in prodding firms to hike base pay.

It will also test Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's flagship "new capitalism" policy that aims to more widely distribute wealth among households by prodding firms to hike pay. World's largest car maker Toyota (7203.T) accepted a union demand for the biggest base salary growth in 20 years, while gaming giant Nintendo (7974.T) plans to lift base pay by 10%. The gain will comprise a 1.08% rise in base pay and a 1.78% increase in additional salary based on seniority, it said. Uncertainty over the sustainability of wage hikes could prod the BOJ to go slow in dialing back stimulus, some analysts say. The BOJ will probably wait until next year in doing anything radical, such as ending its bond yield control policy."

☆ Powell pushes dollar to three-month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 8 (Reuters) - The dollar was riding high on Wednesday, flung to three-month peaks when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell surprised investors by warning that interest rates might need to go up faster and higher than expected to rein in inflation. Overnight it had shot more than 1.2% higher on the euro, its biggest one-day move in five months. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, jumped 1.3% overnight to a three-month peak of 105.65. The blockbuster week of central bank meetings and speakers rolls on later in the day, with the Bank of Canada setting policy and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaking. "If they don't hike, the Canadian dollar will likely fall into a bucket of currencies where the central bank is unwilling to keep up with the Fed."

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has said the central bank may be at the end of its rate-rising cycle, there's a wide 'hawk-dove' divide within the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday became the first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign. "I don't think other major central banks are going to be able to match what the Fed is going to do. "The dollar can stay elevated as long as the Fed remains the most aggressive central bank in the world." Of course, central bank cycles don't always converge. Related columns:- Hedge funds record wager on higher 2-year U.S. bond yield- Rates market overshoot - or no man's land?

☆ Dollar treads water ahead of Powell testimony; Aussie slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was tentative on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that it might nearly be done with monetary tightening. Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index , which measures it against six major rivals, was flat at 104.24, having slipped 0.26% overnight. "We suspect he will sound noncommittal for now and take his cues from the looming upcoming key data," said Cummins, who expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said Powell's testimony will be one of the last instances of Fed officials speaking before the black-out period commences ahead of the FOMC meeting.

☆ Dollar subdued ahead of Powell testimony; Aussie slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was tentative on Tuesday ahead of testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points but tempered hawkishness in its statement. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index , which measures it against six major rivals, fell 0.077% to 104.170, having slipped 0.26% overnight. The Japanese yen was mostly flat at 135.94 to the dollar ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. They also expect interest rates to peak at 5.48% in September and still be above 5% at the end of the year.

☆ Dollar subdued ahead of Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The dollar was subdued on Tuesday ahead of testimony by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, which investors will focus on for cues of the path the U.S. central bank is likely to take in tackling sticky inflation. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was 0.067% higher at 104.31, having skidded 0.26% overnight. The Australian dollar rose 0.01% against the U.S. dollar at $0.673 ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision later in the day where a quarter-percentage point rate hike is widely expected. The Japanese yen weakened 0.15% to 136.14 per dollar ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday. They also expect interest rates to peak at 5.48% in September and still be above 5% at the end of the year.

☆ Wall St pares gains, Treasury yields turn higher ahead of Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 27, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes were modestly higher, although well off session highs, Treasury yields reversed an earlier dip and the dollar pared its losses in afternoon trading. Emerging market stocks rose 0.57%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields were last nominally higher on the day, bouncing back from initial decline. The dollar lost ground against a basket of world currencies ahead of Powell's testimony and the jobs data.

☆ Wall Street gains, Treasury yields soften ahead of Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/4] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 3, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes gained ground on Monday, appearing to extend last week's rally, with lower Treasury yields boosting interest rate-sensitive megacap stocks. European shares reversed earlier gains and were last essentially unchanged after modest China growth estimates suggested a possible dampening of demand for European goods. Emerging market stocks rose 0.64%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields continued to ease as dampening demand supported hopes that the Fed is approaching the end of its rate-hike phase.

☆ Dollar subdued as traders eye Powell testimony, jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Futures imply a 72% chance the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 22. The spotlight will be firmly on the February jobs report scheduled for Friday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Citi strategists expect Powell to indicate a preference for a 25 bps hike but leave all options on the table, since he will speak before the jobs data are released. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.01% to 135.85 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.203, down 0.08% on the day. In the spot market, the onshore yuan opened at 6.9072 per dollar and was last changing hands at 6.9067.

☆ Asia stocks rally, bonds tense for U.S. rate tests
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) climbed 1.0% to a three-month top, while South Korean stocks (.KS11) added 0.6% helped by a softer reading on inflation. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1% and Nasdaq futures 0.2%, after rallying on Friday as bond yields eased back a little. Futures imply a 72% chance the Fed will go by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 22. The BOJ jolted markets in December when it unexpectedly widened the allowed trading band for 10-year bond yields to between -50 and +50 basis points. Friday's pullback in bond yields helped gold recover some ground and it was trading at $1,855 an ounce .

March 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Monetary policy decisions from Australia and Japan on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, will be market-moving events too. Before that however, investors have a deluge of headlines from China this weekend to digest. Inflation figures from South Korea, The Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan this week will be closely watched by investors and policymakers alike. With the Fed seemingly on track to tighten policy further, a renewed rise in the dollar could intensify FX-fueled inflationary pressures in Asia.

The greenback briefly cut its losses after data showed the U.S. services sector grew at a steady pace in February, with new orders and employment rising to more than one-year highs. "This suggests traders think yields have been pushed too far, too fast, and could augur a peak in implied terminal rates," he added. "Next week's job opening and non-farm payrolls reports could generate a lift in yields and the dollar. The dollar eased 0.4% to 136.26 yen , after climbing to 137.10 on Thursday, the highest since Dec. 20. For the week, the dollar is down 0.4% versus the yen, but any gain would preserve its win streak since mid-January.

The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for nine straight months. The slowdown was mostly due to the effect of government energy subsidies to curb soaring utility bills, the data showed. It marked the fastest year-on-year pace of increase since August 1991, when the index also rose 3.2%. Service inflation, which the BOJ sees as key to achieving sustained wage growth, perked up to 1.3% in February from 1.2% in January, the data showed. Nationwide core consumer prices rose 4.2% in January from a year earlier, hitting a fresh 41-year high, as an increasing number of companies passed on higher costs to households.

☆ Dollar eases toward first weekly loss since January as traders weigh Fed path
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. dollar eased back from a 2-1/2-month high versus the yen on Friday and weakened toward its first weekly loss since January against major peers as traders tried to gauge the path for Federal Reserve policy. Analysts polled by Reuters said recent dollar strength is temporary, and the currency will weaken over the course of the year amid an improving global economy and expectations the Fed will stop hiking interest rates well ahead of the European Central Bank. The dollar eased 0.15% to 136.575 yen , after climbing to 137.10 overnight, the highest since Dec. 20. For the week, the dollar is just slightly above flat, but any gain would preserve its win streak since mid-January. The euro rose 0.08% to $1.0606, after climbing off a nearly two-month low of $1.0533 at the start of the week.

☆ Ex-BOJ gov Shirakawa urges re-examination of monetary framework, inflation targets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, March 2 (Reuters) - Former Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa called on policymakers to reconsider central banks' monetary framework based on inflation targets, given their limits that became apparent from the recent spike in prices seen in many countries. By allowing inflation to overshoot their targets, central banks "forgot the difficulty of taking away the monetary punch bowl" and failed to tighten policy soon enough, he said. "Inflation targeting itself was an innovation that came about in response to the severe stagflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. "Now that we know its limitations, the time is ripe to reconsider the intellectual foundation on which we have relied for the past 30 years and renew our framework for monetary policy," he added. Shirakawa, who was BOJ governor before incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, also criticised the central bank's current forward guidance committing to keep interest rates ultra-low.

☆ Dollar squeezed as inflation drives up euro
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Euro zone inflation data is due later in the day. The yen hardly budged but the dollar made broad falls on Asian currencies as it retreats from recent highs. On Thursday the yen was a tad stronger at 136.04 to the dollar in early trade while the Australian dollar held Wednesday gains made despite softer-than-expected growth data and some hints that inflation may have peaked. "We consider the Australian dollar can increase materially in the weeks after China's Two Sessions meetings," he said. Besides European inflation, euro zone employment and central bank minutes are due later in the day, as is U.S. jobless claims data.

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