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☆ Dollar subdued ahead of Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six peers, was at 103.22, just above the five-week low of 102.99 touched overnight. Markets are now pricing in about a 14% chance of the Fed not increasing rates, with a roughly 86% chance of a 25 basis point hike, showed the CME FedWatch tool. Just a month earlier, the market was pricing in a 24% chance of a 50 basis point hike. Such circumstances would usually be ripe for a return to a 50 basis point hike were it not for worries over financial stability, he said. The Australian dollar rose 0.04% to $0.667, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.16% to $0.618.

☆ Credit Suisse reinforces Japan’s offshore anxiety
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, March 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The crisis at Credit Suisse has traders wondering who’s next. Japanese lenders, with their staid depositor bases, look like unlikely targets for bank runs. Yet the rising cost of short-term dollar and euro credit, combined with extreme yen volatility, have made hedging much more expensive. Domestic commercial lenders alone held $600 billion of international debt securities at the end of 2022, and some look overexposed. Take Japan Post Bank (7182.T), a $32 billion institution whose parent is partly owned by the Ministry of Finance.

SummarySummary Companies C.banks responded to risk-aversive moves in markets - MatsunoJapan's banking system stable as a whole - MatsunoFinmin says will keep assessing impact of Credit Suisse buyoutMarket rout may complicate BOJ's exit path from easy policyTOKYO, March 20 (Reuters) - Japan's top government spokesperson said on Monday the banking system was stable, seeking to reassure markets the country won't see a contagion from U.S. and European banking sector woes. "Each country promptly ramped up efforts as risk-aversive moves were seen in financial markets," Matsuno told a regular news conference. "Japan's financial system is stable as a whole," he said, adding that authorities were watching financial market moves "with a strong sense of alarm". For now, financial authorities in Tokyo see the most likely risk for Japan coming from a deterioration in the U.S. economy that would hurt exports, rather than a direct bank contagion. "The failure of two U.S. banks spilled over to a Swiss bank in a seemingly unrelated way," one official said.

☆ Morning Bid: Investors adopt the brace position as banks topple
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That pretty much sums up the reaction in Asian markets to the extraordinary government-engineered takeover of the storied Credit Suisse by UBS, along with a U.S. dollar supply operation by a Fed-led posse of major central banks. Investors seem torn between relief that Credit Suisse was not allowed to collapse or worries that it had to be saved in such a way in the first place. It's not helping that Credit Suisse shareholders are taking a nasty haircut in the deal, though not as painful as AT1 bond holders who seemingly won't get their $17 billion back. That's a break with convention that could threaten the future of the entire $275 billion CoCo market. Likewise, Fed fund futures fell, rose, then fell again as investors dared to divine what all this might mean for interest rates.

"Each country promptly ramped up efforts as risk-aversive moves were seen in financial markets," Matsuno told a regular news conference. "Japan's financial system is stable as a whole," he said, adding that authorities were watching financial market moves "with a strong sense of alarm". The remarks came after Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters on Monday the government would continue to "carefully assess" how a weekend rescue deal for Credit Suisse Group would affect Japan's financial sector. For now, financial authorities in Tokyo see the most likely risk for Japan coming from a deterioration in the U.S. economy that would hurt exports, rather than a direct bank contagion. "The failure of two U.S. banks spilled over to a Swiss bank in a seemingly unrelated way," one official said.

SummarySummary Companies C.banks responded to risk-aversive moves in markets - MatsunoJapan's banking system stable as a whole - MatsunoGovt watching market moves with strong sense of alarm - MatsunoFinmin says will keep assessing impact of Credit Suisse buyoutTOKYO, March 20 (Reuters) - Japan's banking system is stable and the country will not see a contagion from U.S. and European banking sector woes, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said on Monday. "Each country promptly ramped up efforts as risk-aversive moves were seen in financial markets," Japan's top government spokesperson told a regular news conference. "Japan's financial system is stable as a whole," he said, adding that authorities were watching financial market moves "with a strong sense of alarm". The remarks came after Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters on Monday the government would continue to "carefully assess" how a weekend rescue deal for Credit Suisse Group would affect Japan's financial sector. Reporting by Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Tom Hogue and Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ BOJ debated side effects of easy policy at March meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

At the March meeting, the BOJ maintained its ultra-loose policy, including a controversial 0.5% cap for the 10-year bond yield that had come under attack from markets betting on a near-term interest rate hike. But some members voiced concern over lingering distortions in the yield curve, which the BOJ sought to contain in December by raising the 10-year bond yield cap to 0.5% from 0.25%. At the time of the March meeting, the BOJ had been forced to ramp up bond buying to defend its 0.5% cap for the 10-year bond yield. The tussle with market participants betting on a near-term rate hike kept the 10-year yield pinned at the 0.5% ceiling, instead of fluctuating more freely as the BOJ had hoped. The 10-year bond yield was 0.250% on Monday, well off the BOJ's 0.5% cap, as investors loaded up on JGBs that are considered safe-haven assets favoured in times of market stress.

☆ Bank of Japan debated side-effects of easy policy and further steps, March meeting summary shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Japanese flag flutters over the Bank of Japan (BoJ) head office building (bottom) in Tokyo on April 27, 2022. The Bank of Japan must be ready to work further towards improving market functions if needed, a central bank policymaker was quoted as saying at a March meeting, underscoring the bank's concern over the rising cost of its bond yield control policy. At the March meeting, the BOJ maintained its ultra-loose policy, including a controversial 0.5% cap for the 10-year bond yield that had come under attack from markets betting on a near-term interest rate hike. Many BOJ board members at the March meeting said the central bank must maintain its massive stimulus to support the economy and ensure Japan would sustainably achieve the central bank's 2% inflation target, the summary of opinions at the meeting showed on Monday. "Although the widening of issuance spreads on corporate bonds has paused, the effects of deterioration in the functioning of the Japanese government bond market remain and warrant close monitoring," according to one opinion.

☆ Japan says closely coordinating with BOJ, overseas authorities on banking issues
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Japanese policymakers have so far stuck to the view that the possibility of another financial crisis is low. On Friday, Suzuki said he was closely watching financial markets in and outside of Japan and for any impact from problems in the banking sector in the West on the Japanese economy. Japan has multilateral currency swap arrangements with Southeast Asian economies to prepare for crises like the 1997/98 Asian currency crisis. However, a bilateral currency swap arrangement with South Korea expired several years ago. "Nothing has been decided on financial track issues such as bilateral currency swap," Suzuki added.

☆ ECB goes big on rates but bank turmoil clouds central banks' outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,165 basis points (bps) in this cycle to date. Reuters Graphics3) CANADAThe Bank of Canada on March 8 became the first major central bank to halt monetary tightening during this cycle. Reuters Graphics6) NORWAYNorway's central bank meets next week and is expected to raise rates by 25 bps to contain above-target inflation. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the most dovish major global central bank, maintained ultra-low interest rates at its March meeting, the final one for retiring BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The BOJ resisted changing its controversial yield curve control policy, which it uses to cap interest rates on longer-term debt.

☆ Bad news salvo gives Bank of Japan some cover
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, March 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Incoming Bank of Japan (8301.T) Governor Kazuo Ueda can breathe a sigh of relief; things aren’t going very well. Ripples from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have shoved down sovereign bond yields, inadvertently driving off an attack by traders who believed global inflation made rate hikes unavoidable. This year, however, spiking energy costs have pushed the core consumer index excluding fresh food over 4%, double the BOJ’s target. Consumer price inflation including energy but excluding fresh food touched 4.2% in January, a 41-year high. Core consumer inflation has now exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for nine straight months.

☆ BOJ debated feasibility of tweaking yield control in January, minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

At the January meeting, the BOJ maintained its ultra-low interest rates, including a bond yield cap it was struggling to defend, defying market expectations it would phase out its massive stimulus programme amid mounting inflationary pressure. "The BOJ must keep various options in mind in guiding monetary policy. But with overseas economies slowing now, it's inappropriate to rush towards an exit" from ultra-easy policy, another board member said, according to the minutes. Under yield curve control (YCC), the BOJ guides short-term rates at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield around zero as part of efforts to sustainably hit its 2% inflation target. Instead of tweaking YCC, the BOJ modified its funds-supply market operation in January to use it as a new tool to prevent long-term rates from rising too much.

☆ BOJ board debated feasibility of tweaking YCC - Jan meeting minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TOKYO, March 15 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers debated the feasibility of making further tweaks to its bond yield curve control with one member saying it must keep "various options in mind" on the future course of monetary policy, minutes of its January meeting showed on Wednesday. The nine-member board concluded that it was premature to exit ultra-loose monetary policy now with inflation yet to sustainably achieve the BOJ's 2% target, according to the minutes of the Jan. 17-18 meeting. "The BOJ must keep various options in mind in guiding monetary policy. But with overseas economies slowing now, it's inappropriate to rush towards an exit" from ultra-easy policy, another board member said, according to the minutes. At the January meeting, the BOJ maintained ultra-low rates, including a bond yield cap it was struggling to defend, defying market expectations it would phase out its massive stimulus programme amid mounting inflationary pressure.

☆ The SVB crisis may prompt the Bank of Japan to delay policy changes, says former board member
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"The second half of next year is [the] possible timing for when the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy," said former Bank of Japan board member Takahide Kiuchi (pictured here in 2017). Japan's central bank could delay any changes to its monetary policy in light of the turmoil that the Silicon Valley Bank crisis has triggered in financial markets, a former board member told CNBC. And any changes to its ultra-dovish stance could be delayed by as much as a year, said Nomura Research Institute economist Takahide Kiuchi, who served on the Bank of Japan's policy board from 2012 to 2017. "I think that the new governor's monetary policy could be affected by the financial market conditions if the current instability of the financial markets continue," Kiuchi said in an interview with CNBC. "The second half of next year is [the] possible timing for when the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy," he said.

☆ Bank of Japan board debated feasibility of tweaking yield curve control, January meeting minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Japanese flag flutters over the Bank of Japan (BoJ) head office building (bottom) in Tokyo on April 27, 2022. Bank of Japan policymakers debated the feasibility of making further tweaks to its bond yield curve control with one member saying it must keep "various options in mind" on the future course of monetary policy, minutes of its January meeting showed on Wednesday. "The BOJ must keep various options in mind in guiding monetary policy. But with overseas economies slowing now, it's inappropriate to rush towards an exit" from ultra-easy policy, another board member said, according to the minutes. At the January meeting, the BOJ maintained ultra-low rates, including a bond yield cap it was struggling to defend, defying market expectations it would phase out its massive stimulus program amid mounting inflationary pressure.

The precedent set at the "shunto" spring wage talks also influences wages at smaller firms that employ seven out of 10 Japanese workers. The shunto wages eventually peaked in 1974 with a record 33% rise in pay. Wary of increasing fixed costs, many Japanese firms have long opted to pay one-off bonuses in good times rather than raise base pay. Economists projected a 2.85% wage increase in a January poll, with base pay increases accounting for 1.08% and 1.78% from an increase in additional salary, based on seniority. Asked whether they would carry out base pay increase, 41.6% said they intended to.

☆ Dollar slides on likely rate pause in wake of SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investor focus will now be on Tuesday's inflation data to gauge how hawkish the Fed is likely to be. "Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike." The market is now pricing a nearly 18% chance of the Fed sticking to its current rate and an 82% chance of a 25 basis point hike. In contrast, the market was pricing a 70% chance of a 50 basis point hike before the SVB collapse. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.61% versus the U.S. dollar to 134.18 per dollar, having touched a one-month high of 133.58 earlier in the session.

☆ Dollar sinks as US intervenes on SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It had previously expected a 25 basis point hike. The SVB collapse led investors to speculate that the Fed would now hesitate to hike interest rates by a super-sized 50 basis points this month. "Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike." In contrast, the market was pricing a 70% chance of a 50 basis point hike before the SVB collapse. The Australian dollar surged 1.41% to $0.667, and was on track for its biggest one-day percentage jump since Jan. 6.

☆ Dollar slides as U.S. intervenes on SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. government announced several measures early on Monday Asian hours, and said all SVB customers will have access to their deposits starting on Monday. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, fell 0.153% at 104.080. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.34% to 134.52 per dollar, the highest in a month as investors made a move to safe-haven Asian currencies. "The currency market is still digesting all the news related to the collapse of SVB," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. The Australian dollar rose 0.79% to $0.663, while the kiwi rose 0.36% to $0.616.

☆ Bank of Japan Keeps Rates Unchanged at Kuroda’s Final Meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Megumi Fujikawa | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The BOJ kept its interest-rate targets unchanged at Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda’s final meeting. TOKYO—The Bank of Japan kept its interest-rate targets unchanged Friday at Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda ’s final meeting after 10 years on the job, but analysts expect policy to shift under his successor, Kazuo Ueda. The bank maintained its cap on the 10-year Japanese government bond yield at 0.5% and kept short-term interest rates at minus 0.1%.

☆ Kuroda defends Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance in his final policy meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, May 27, 2021. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesJapan's outgoing central governor Haruhiko Kuroda defended the Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish monetary policy stance at his final policy meeting on Friday. Kuroda has led the central bank's ultra-dovish monetary policy for the past decade – even as global central banks in recent months raised interest rates in a bid to tame inflation. "Financial conditions have been accommodative on the whole, although weakness in firms' financial positions has remained in some segments," the central bank said. New BOJ leadershipJapan's upper house in parliament approved Ueda to be the next central bank governor, Kyodo reported.

☆ Dollar loses steam after jobless claims data, while Kuroda takes center stage in Asia
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An employee deals with U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes at a bank on June 16, 2022 in Hai an, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province of China. The yen held steady in early Asia trade, and was last 0.2% higher at 135.89 per dollar, retreating from a nearly three-month low hit earlier in the week. Nonetheless, the jump in jobless claims was enough to cause traders to unwind some bets that U.S. rates would rise much higher than previously expected. The Fed funds rate is projected to peak just below 5.5% by July. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.12% to 105.12 but remained on track for a weekly gain of nearly 0.6%.

The yen was last down about 0.15% at 136.36 after a knee-jerk plunge of as much as 0.62% after the BOJ kept policy unchanged in Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's final policy meeting before retirement. Despite some volatility against the yen, the U.S. dollar was mostly flat on Friday. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was little changed at 105.28 but remained on track for a weekly gain of 0.73%. The focus now turns to the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report later on Friday, the next major data point that could offer clues on the Fed's next steps for monetary policy. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 205,000 jobs in February after surging by 517,000 in January.

The yen weakened and Japanese government bond yields plunged after the Bank of Japan opted to keep stimulus settings steady at Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's last meeting in charge, as expected. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield, which the BOJ pins within 50 basis points either side of zero, pulled back sharply from that ceiling to last sit at 0.445%. The yen was last down about 0.4% at 136.615 per dollar after a knee-jerk drop of as much as 0.6%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) pared declines to last be down around 1%, compared to a 1.23% loss prior to the central bank decision. S&P 500 futures were down 0.57%, following the cash index (.SPX) dropping 1.8% and falling below its 200-day moving average.

☆ Bank of Japan keeps low rates as Kuroda sticks to script at swan song meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

At its two-day meeting that ended on Friday, the BOJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. It also left unchanged a band set around the 10-year yield target that allows the yield to rise up to 0.5%. “The decision to uphold policy rates comes at a cost. Many investors expect the central bank to phase out YCC when Kuroda’s successor, Kazuo Ueda, takes the helm in April. “The BOJ will likely abandon its 10-year bond yield target, while maintaining negative interest rates, to arrest distortions in the yield curve,” he said.

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