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☆ Wall St Week Ahead Recession worries simmer beneath US stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - Economically sensitive areas of the U.S. stock market are flashing warnings over growth, even as major equity indexes edge higher. Beneath the surface, however, areas of the market tied to economic sentiment such as transports, semiconductors and small-cap stocks dropped in April, while so-called defensive sectors are outperforming. “People are starting to more defensively position themselves,” said Aaron Dunn, co-head of the value equity team at Eaton Vance. "They are talking about demand being down and they are ridiculously important shipping companies,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Arsenal wobbling in Premier League title race ahead of probable deciding clash against Manchester City
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Issy Ronald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Arsenal was cruising three weeks ago, one hand on its first Premier League trophy for 19 years, albeit with one eye on an impressive Manchester City, then eight points behind in the title race with a game in hand. It seemed like it might be a blip, simultaneously a dropped two points and salvaged one point, that injected drama into a title race still balanced on a knife-edge between Arsenal and City. Arsenal's three consecutive draws has changed the complexion of the title race. “Whether the point makes that much difference to Arsenal, I’m not quite sure,” former Liverpool player and now pundit Jamie Carragher said on Sky Sports. “They’ve probably got to go to Man City and get three points if they want to go on and win the league.

☆ Goldman Sachs Sheds Consumer Loans as Losses Mount
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Rob Copeland | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

How much will it cost for Goldman Sachs to extricate itself from a mistake? Goldman said it had sold off some of those down-market loans and conceded defeat on others, to the tune of nearly $500 million in losses. In October, the firm cleaved its wobbling consumer offerings, including credit card partnerships and interest-earning accounts, into a separate division. Three months later, the bank disclosed more than $3 billion in losses tied to that business over the previous years. Even for a lender as large as Goldman, the continuous bleeding is no small matter.

☆ The Fed could easily drive Black unemployment much higher than the overall jobless rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

However, the jobless rate isn’t expected to be that low for long. While that’s a small improvement from the central bank’s previous 4.6% jobless rate estimate, economists say it’s possible the unemployment rate could rise above the Fed’s expectations. It can be difficult to slow an unemployment spiralEconomists say it’s hard to guess the trajectory of the unemployment rate this year, noting it could very well exceed the Fed’s estimate. As such, the Fed’s tightening efforts could easily drive the Black unemployment rate much higher than the overall jobless rate, said William Spriggs, an economics professor at Howard University and chief economist to the AFL-CIO. The Black unemployment rate will easily get to 9% in that scenario.”One other likely consequence of growing unemployment is slowing wage growth, Bivens said.

☆ Dollar slips as Fed outlook shifts
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That's a contrast to Europe where markets see another 50 bp or so to go, and the gap sent the euro surging. Dollar/yen fell 0.7% overnight and was edging lower in the Asian morning at 131.19. "From the foreign exchange perspective, we think that argues for further dollar weakness as the ceiling for the Fed cycle has clearly come down." The risk-sensitive Australian dollar recoiled sharply from a two-week high of $0.6759 to be back at $0.6707 on Thursday morning. The New Zealand dollar also gave up overnight gains, but was firm in morning trade at $0.6238.

☆ The Earth has tilted on its axis differently over the last few decades due to melting ice caps
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Aylin Woodward | Marianne Guenot | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Earth's axis — the invisible line around which it spins — is bookended by the north and south poles. But their geographic locations aren't fixed: As the Earth's axis moves, so do the poles. If you average out thousands of years of observation the Earth's axis points in a single direction — toward the North Star, also known as Polaris. The recent change to Earth's axis won't affect our everyday lives, but it could slightly tweak the length of our days. But let's be clear that this would be a tiny, tiny, tiny effect," he said.

☆ Global banking crisis: One big problem down. Too many others left to go
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Credit Suisse, hobbled for decades by mismanagement, scandal and bad bets, finally succumbed to the emerging global banking crisis. In the United States, the banking crisis began nearly two weeks ago with the sudden collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank over a three-day span. That sent shockwaves through the global banking system. Good news and bad newsThe good news: Those loans do not indicate anything inherently wrong with the global banking system. But the banking system and regulators would have to calm fears before that happens system-wide.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Defensives may not be safe place to hide as stock market stumbles
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"Last year it was really easy to hide out in defensives," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. When compounded by the fact that some defensive stocks carry relatively expensive valuations, investors may avoid them even if the broader market sours. The S&P 500 was last up 3.7% in 2023, but had pulled back since posting its best January performance since 2019. However the sector's financial prospects this year are relatively weak; S&P 500 healthcare earnings are expected to fall 8.3% against a 1.7% increase for the overall S&P 500, according to Refinitiv IBES. Should concerns about recession spike, as they did last year, defensives could outperform again on a relative basis, according to investors.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Defensives may not be safe place to hide as stock market stumbles
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File PhotoFeb 21 (Reuters) - The world of stablecoins is suddenly looking shaky. "There's way too much demand for dollar-based stablecoins for them to go away," said Alex Miller, CEO at bitcoin developer network Hiro. Market leader tether (USDT) has been a big beneficiary, adding $1.9 billion to its market capitalization to hit $70.3 billion since the news. It now commands 52.6% of the stablecoin market, up from just over 51%. Traders also use these tokens to hedge their positions, and hence dwindling market value is associated with falling liquidity and leverage in the broader crypto market.

Big companies are announcing layoffs, home and stock prices are wobbling, inflation is squeezing household budgets and the Federal Reserve is still raising interest rates. Not surprisingly, Americans have been hearing the “R” word a lot. It’s the wrong one. The U.S. could still skirt a recession, but it is already in a richcession. That’s when, amid economic uncertainty, the well-off feel more of the bite.

☆ Japan’s next central bank chief may rue promotion
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

In fact, it has spent an average of 1.3 trillion yen per trading day since the band widened: nearly 50 trillion yen in total, per Refinitiv data, and still counting. The central bank already owns over half of Japan’s sovereign bonds and is sure to suffer large losses when their prices fall, which they eventually must. The central bank chief must also work to put the country’s vast stack of inert money back to work. Kuroda effectively put the central bank at the service of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” stimulus programme. Fumio Kishida, the current leader, is having popularity problems and will want the central bank to support his aggressive agenda, which includes hiking defence spending, promoting innovative startups and redistributing wealth.

☆ Morning Bid: Volatility stirs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

World markets end a rough week of confusing and competing narratives in distinctly edgy form, with peculiarly subdued volatility gauges flickering back to life. Both 10 and 30-year yields hit their highest levels in over a month early on Friday. Job shedding in the digital sector continued, with Yahoo's plans to lay off more than 20% of its total workforce. That said, the year-on-year oil price trend continues to be negative, as it's been all year and base effects from last year's price spike around the Ukraine invasion will only deepen that and weigh on headline inflation further. Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next, cutting its Brent 2023 price forecast by $6 to $92 per barrel - still above current levels around $86.

LONDON/FRANKFURT, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Rising borrowing costs are giving a long-awaited lift to Europe's beleaguered banks, but they come with a sting in the tail. Last year central banks ended a decade of rock-bottom interest rates as the U.S. Federal Reserve and then the European Central Bank moved towards tightening. But while rising rates are good news for bank profits, they herald a slowdown in an economy hit by war and runaway prices that squeeze borrowers and could prick pricing bubbles, most notably in property. "On the one hand, interest rates are going up, which is good and helps banks," said Jerome Legras of Axiom Alternative Investments. Germany's financial regulator BaFin recently warned that a rapid rise in interest rates could weigh on some banks, and that loans may sour.

☆ Layoffs are a nail in the coffin for whatever the metaverse is
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Hasan Chowdhury | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Last week saw both Apple and Microsoft pause on speculative projects involving augmented reality and virtual reality, per reports. Apple has postponed its much-rumored augmented reality glasses because of technical challenges, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported. The metaverse was already a loose concept, a catch-all term for a vague theory that augmented reality and virtual reality is the future of computing, despite little evidence to back this up. Microsoft, reasonably early to the market with its HoloLens headset, has run into issues with one of its biggest customers: the US military. It's possible augmented reality and virtual reality devices do become popular among certain types of consumer, such as enthusiasts or gamers.

☆ China central bank to maintain or increase policy-loan liquidity - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The PBOC manages liquidity by extending loans to banks under its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF). Twelve analysts expected the central bank to replace that debt exactly with 700 billion yuan of new lending, and 10 expected it to go further and lend a greater amount. A great majority - 21 traders and analysts - expected the MLF interest rate to stay unchanged at 2.75% this month, while the remaining four respondents expected a small rate cut. Markets still expect some monetary policy easing measures to support economic recovery, including cuts to policy rates and the amount of cash that banks must set aside as reserves. "The PBOC will likely cut interest rates soon to aid the expected economic recovery this year."

☆ The 11 best affordable exercise bikes for home workouts
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Justin Redman | Justin Redman Was Formerly A Reporter For Select On Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +7 min

We previously consulted personal trainers for their shopping guidance on the best exercise bikes, and while the pros recommend a more expensive bike for serious tracking and online connectivity, they were quick to point out that you can still get a quality workout with more affordable exercise bikes. Best exercise bikes under $500These top-rated exercise bikes are readily available at reader-favorite retailers such as Amazon, Walmart and Target, along with popular brands, including Sunny Health, Nautilus and Echelon. As an added bonus, most of these stationary exercise bikes give you a 30-day return policy if you're not fully satisfied with your new purchase. Similar to the pooboo bike, this Lanos Stationary Exercise Bike has extensive adjustability. This exercise bike folds away for storage and comes with wheels for easier transport.

☆ 11 ancient sites that are mysteriously aligned with the sun on the winter solstice, in photos.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-17 | by ( Marianne Guenot | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Archaeologists have found many ancient sites that line up with the winter solstice sun. Here are 11 sites that line up with the winter solstice, and what experts think about them. Newgrange, County Meath, IrelandPeople celebrating the sunrise at Newgrange on the morning of the winter solstice in 2018. ShutterstockOne of the most famous examples of ancient architecture lining up with the winter solstice is in Machu Picchu, Peru. "From the winter solstice the days are longer, which was a metaphor of the rebirth of the deceased," he said.

☆ Stopping the stars won't be enough to win World Cup
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-17 | by ( Mitch Phillips | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

DOHA, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Despite the high profile performances of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe in Qatar, Argentina and France can create danger all over the pitch, so stopping the superstars is only one battle in Sunday's World Cup final war. England were quick to double-team Mbappe whenever he picked up the ball and Argentina, probably through Nahuel Molina and Rodrigo De Paul, will try to do the same. Tchouameni and Adrien Rabiot have both been excellent in Doha, with the latter expected to return after missing the semi-final through illness. As hundreds of opponents before them can attest, there is no real way to plan to keep him quiet. In general, the two attacks look stronger than the two defences, which, for the neutral at least, is always a good thing in a World Cup final.

☆ Real-estate tech firms are getting hammered by a cataclysmic reckoning that one VC called a cross between the 2001 dot-com bust and the 2008 market crash
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

The proptech sector is battling two challenges at once: a slowing housing market and a tech bust. For almost a decade, a growing group of companies have thrived by introducing tech innovations to a stubbornly analog real-estate industry. "Now we're seeing something that feels like a confluence between the 2001 dot-com bust in the venture-capital world and the 2008 market crash in real estate. Shares of both Opendoor and Redfin, which once drew investor attention to the soaring proptech industry, are worth roughly one-tenth what where they were a year ago. The company hasn't laid off any of its 300-person staff — including a roughly 50-person tech team — and doesn't plan to, Matthews said.

☆ Global stocks rise but Polish deaths raise market concerns
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks wavered and the dollar briefly rose on initial reports of the Polish deaths as the market was overstretched as data suggested inflation was coming off its peak, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. The Polish deaths were reminiscent of U.S. bombs that killed three people in the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999, he said. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 1.03%, while its emerging markets index (.MSCIEF) rose 2.22%. The euro up 0.22% to $1.0348, after briefly slipping on the Polish reports, and the yen strengthened 0.50% versus the dollar at 139.18. U.S. crude futures settled up $1.05 at $86.92 a barrel, while Brent futures rose 72 cents to settle at $93.86.

☆ Asian shares rise, dollar dips ahead of Fed policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

European markets looked set to extend the cautious optimism, with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5%. However, traders are split on the size of the hike in December, with futures market pricing in a 44.5% probability of a 50-bps increase, according to CME's Fed tool. It fell 0.5% against the Japanese yen to 147.6 yen amid fears of intervention from authorities and thin liquidity. In commodities, oil climbed after industry data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles, suggesting demand is holding up. U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.4% to $89.65 per barrel, while Brent crude futures was up 1.2% at $95.82.

And economic policy is only gradually being taped back together before the BoE meets again. It's also pulled the implied peak Bank rate next year some 150bp lower to 4.75% over the same period - back below the assumed 'terminal rate' at the U.S. Federal Reserve. "We see the risks skewed towards the BoE sounding dovish this week and ultimately "underdelivering" versus current pricing," the Deutsche analyst wrote. Central bank rate hikes and SterlingReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: The Next Three Days
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Well, the Bank of England's Andrew Bailey has crowed, sort of making clear the Liz Truss government can't bank on it defending markets from the fallout of an ill-conceived economic revival plan for more than three days. "You've got three days left now. You've got to get this done," Bailey said on Tuesday, referring to the pension funds. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is up, yen is at 24-year lows, yields are soaring, sterling is wobbling and oil is slipping. That comes days after a sweeping set of export controls published by the Biden administration aimed at cutting China off from certain semiconductor chips made anywhere in the world with U.S. equipment.

☆ The Next Three Days
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Well, the Bank of England's Andrew Bailey has crowed, sort of making clear the Liz Truss government can't bank on it defending markets from the fallout of an ill-conceived economic revival plan for more than three days. "You've got three days left now. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is up, yen is at 24-year lows, yields are soaring, sterling is wobbling and oil is slipping. Not all is lost for the chip industry that has been hammered in the past few days after a Reuters report on Tuesday that the U.S. government has allowed at least two non-Chinese chipmakers operating in China to receive restricted goods and services without their suppliers seeking licenses. That comes days after a sweeping set of export controls published by the Biden administration aimed at cutting China off from certain semiconductor chips made anywhere in the world with U.S. equipment.

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