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Despite a bleak month in October for the stock market, there may be some good news in store for at least four stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average . All three major market indexes are in the red this month, with the Dow off by 1.5% since the end of September. But investors may find some relief heading into the year end, since historically November has been a strong month for stocks. Analysts surveyed by LSEG have an average rating of hold on Caterpillar. Based on a consensus price target of $288, Caterpillar offers some 27% upside according to analyst estimates.
Persons: Dow, LSEG, Max, — CNBC's Christopher Hayes Organizations: Dow Jones, Stock, Dow, CNBC, Caterpillar, Analysts, LSEG, Boeing, Max . Insurance, UBS
After a miserable October, the setup for November is looking better. Barring a huge rally Tuesday, October will be the third-consecutive down month for the S & P 500 — that's unusual. 1 month for the S & P 500. It's just that stocks have sold off during earnings season because of the cautious outlook being projected on many earnings calls. The chances the S & P 500 would be down four months in a row is very small.
Persons: , That's, Nicholas Colas, Colas, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, It's, hasn't, Jonathan Krinsky Locations: DataTrek, Israel, BTIG
Don't look now, but the market is entering what's historically been a good period for investors. No, it's not McRib season, although there's a case to made that the sandwich's reappearance bodes well for stocks. Rather, investors will be glad to know that October kicks off what is typically a good three months for stocks, following a month in September that historically tends to be rough. The S&P 500 index posted September declines of 3.9% in 2020, 4.8% in 2021, 9.3% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023. In fact, stocks have gone up in the fourth quarter 79.5% of the time — the highest success rate of any quarter.
Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch
A Monday evening note from Almanac editor Jeffrey Hirsch said that the stock market appears to be in the early stages of an end-of-year rally. SPY YTD mountain The S & P 500 is up since May, but did suffer a late-summer swoon. The buy signal could help offset the multiple negatives working against the stock market, including bond yield volatility and the conflict in the Middle East. The Almanac's portfolio changes show an expectation of a broad market rally. The moves include buying the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) , SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as well as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) .
Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, SPDR, Russell Organizations: Dow Jones, ETF Trust, Trust, P Biotech, Consumer, Vanguard, Index
Many investors expect that could be the capitulation event equities need to bottom out before rebounding. "If you get down to five and a quarter all hell's gonna break loose," Rob Ginsberg, managing director at Wolfe Research. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has spiked sharply to about 4.8% this week, about 1 whole percentage point above where it was in mid-July at around 3.7%. In fact, it won't take much for the positive narrative to start to take hold in markets, Hogan said. Hogan anticipates the S & P 500 could rise to 4,800 by year end, about 13% above where it is currently.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Fitch, Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, Wolfe Research's Ginsberg, Ginsberg doesn't, You'll, Ginsberg, Riley Financial's Art Hogan, they'll, Read, Hogan, Kevin McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Katie Stockton, Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier, Jeffrey Hirsch, I'm, Hirsch Organizations: Dow Jones, Treasury, Wolfe Research, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, CNBC Pro's, Supply, Bank of America's Locations: Saudi Arabia
CNBC Daily Open: Investors got a brief reprieve
  + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on October 04, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks climbed, yields retreatedU.S. stocks climbed Wednesday and Treasury yields retreated, helping the Dow Jones Industrial Average break its three-day losing streak. Here's how he's planning to manage the risk, and what he's buying to hedge against possible losses.
Persons: Stocks, Kospi, payrolls, Marc, Antoine Julliard, Sam Bankman, Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, Kevin McCarthy, Jordan's, Donald Trump, who's, Matthew McLennan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Treasury, Dow Jones, Japan's Nikkei, ADP, FTX, Speaker U.S, Freedom Caucus, Former U.S Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific, Former, U.S
A government shutdown looming on the horizon could dampen sentiment to start October even as Wall Street wraps up what's been a challenging month and quarter. Many market participants expect that the financial markets and economy will broadly shake off concerns from a shutdown as they have in the past. "The market's probably going to set it aside until or unless it starts to have a larger impact on behaviors." Economic impact Historically, government shutdowns have been relatively short-lived, though they have been longer and more disruptive recently. Meanwhile, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, expects the government shutdown is "all bark and no bite" when it comes to market reaction.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Rob Haworth, Wells, Michael Pugliese, Bank's Haworth, Aditya Bhave, Jay Woods, Woods, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, Lamb Weston Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Nasdaq, BEA, Bank of America U.S, Labor, Freedom Capital, Atlanta Fed's, PMI, Manufacturing, McCormick, ADP, Services PMI, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Consumer Credit Locations: Wells Fargo
Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler is testifying before the House Financial Services Committee today. Republicans are increasingly apoplectic about the more than 40 rules Gensler has been proposing, especially now that he has begun adopting them. Gensler grilled for proposed and adopted rulesRepublicans will be particularly keen to talk about some of the bigger issues Gensler has been tackling. Some are hoping that a few Democrats will join the Republicans and ask Gensler to slow down. Now that he has begun adopting many of these rules, the financial services industry seems to be saying, "See you in court."
Persons: Gary Gensler, Gensler, That's, Biden, Kirsten Wegner, Wegner, Virtu, Doug Cifu, Cifu, What's Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Washington , D.C, Securities, Exchange, Financial Services, Senate Banking, Republicans, Gensler, Commission, Modern Markets, Trader's Magazine, SEC, Virtu Locations: Washington ,
Stock futures hovered near the flat line Monday evening. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 25 points, or 0.07%. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.06%. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.45%. Nevertheless, stocks are on pace to end September lower, a month that is already known as being historically weak for equities.
Persons: doesn't, it's, Mary Ann Bartels Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: Washington
For active traders who like to time buying and selling around seasonal events, the next few weeks are Market Timing Heaven. The volatility is encapsulated in one of the more enduring seasonal trades: Sell Rosh Hashanah (which begins at sundown Friday this year), buy Yom Kippur (Sept. 25). Traders sell positions due to seasonal weakness at the start of Rosh Hoshanah, then return to the market after Yom Kippur. The period from Yom Kippur to Passover, which starts on April 22, 2024, is traditionally an up period, good for an average gain of 6.9%. It means market timers expecting seasonal weakness for the next few weeks are also expecting seasonal strength in the fourth quarter.
Persons: Rosh Hoshanah, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, Tom McClellan, McClellan, Todd Sohn Organizations: Triple, Triple Witching, Federal, Traders Locations: Yom, Rosh, Yom Kippur, Strategas
Gold retreats as growth risks drive safe-haven bids to U.S. dollar
  + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold slipped to a one-week low on Tuesday on rising bond yields and as investors opted for the U.S. dollar to hedge against global growth concerns. Spot gold declined 0.6% to $1,926.49 per ounce. Jitters about global growth, particularly in China and the Euro zone, caused rival safe-haven dollar to hit multi-month highs against a basket of currencies, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. "The global growth slowdown story will eventually prove to be a positive for gold and that would only come once the market becomes more skeptical about the US recession risks." Silver shed 1.1% to $23.70 per ounce, logging its biggest daily drop in a month.
Persons: Gold, Edward Moya, Christopher Waller, Otunuga Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: China
Spot gold was down 0.6% to $1,927.69 per ounce by 12:49 p.m. EDT (1649 GMT). Jitters about global growth, particularly in China and the euro zone, caused the safe-haven dollar to hit multi-month highs against a basket of currencies, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. "The global growth slowdown story will eventually prove to be a positive for gold and that would only come once the market becomes more skeptical about the US recession risks." Silver shed 1.5% to $23.60 per ounce, logging its biggest daily drop in a month. Reporting by Harshit Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Edward Moya, Christopher Waller, Harshit Verma, Shinjini Ganguli, Paul Simao Organizations: Waller, Data, U.S, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNBC, Thomson Locations: China, Bengaluru
Wall Street is barreling toward what's historically been the worst month for stocks, according to CNBC PRO data. September is the weakest month for Apple, which dropped 2.82% on average, and Google-parent Alphabet, which fell an average 2.20%. For Amazon, September is the 11th weakest month, dropping 2.59%. And for Meta, it's the 10th worst month, as shares fall 1.96% on average. Meanwhile, September is historically the 9th worst month for this year's biggest AI beneficiary Nvidia, which is higher this year by nearly 200%.
Persons: Jeff Hirsch, it's, Almanac's Hirsch, Hirsch, Chris Hayes Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, that's, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia Locations: That's
New inflation data set for release in the week ahead could help Wall Street regain its footing. However, he does not expect that the inflation data releasing next week will be very threatening, even if they show a slight rise from the prior reading. A smattering of results will roll out in the week ahead including from major firms like the Walt Disney Company, which reports Wednesday. Other economic data Investors will digest other major economic data in the week ahead. Hourly earnings (July) Earnings: RL Friday, Aug. 11 8:30 a.m. PPI (July) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (August)
Persons: it's, Jack Ablin, Ablin, McCormick, Archer, CFRA'S Sam Stovall, FactSet, Stovall, Greg Bassuk, Bassuk, Tyson, Eli Lilly, Fox Organizations: Federal, PPI, Cresset, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Fed, Daniels, Midland, Chevron, Investments, Walt Disney Company, Wynn Resorts, Dow, Consumer Credit, Tyson Foods, Paramount, Parcel Service, CPI Locations: U.S, Michigan
Glencore expects 2023 trading unit profits of up to $4 bln
  + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - Glencore (GLEN.L) on Friday said it expects profits at its trading division this year of up to $4 billion, exceeding its long-term annual guidance. It expects full-year trading earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to be between $3.5 and $4 billion. The group left its overall 2023 guidance for copper unchanged at 1.04 million metric tons, even as production fell by 10% to 488,000 tons in the first half. "Our full-year production guidance remains unchanged from earlier guidance," boss Gary Nagle said in a release. "Second-half volume weightings in copper, zinc and nickel reflect higher expected production volumes from Collahuasi, Kazzinc, Mount Isa and INO."
Persons: Gary Nagle, Mount Isa, INO, Clara Denina, Jason Neely, Jan Harvey Organizations: Democratic, Thomson Locations: Katanga, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC
After a string of up days, the old market leadership of technology and consumer discretionary is looking tired, and that is probably a good thing. Since 1950, August is the third-worst month for the S & P 500, while September is the worst month. That is "historically extreme," Todd Sohn from Strategas told me, though it is consistent with coming off major market lows. A torrid two-month rally has lifted the S & P Technology Sector (XLK) by 16%, but tech has mostly been for sale in the last few days. Still, for investors in the S & P 500, McClellan says no one should be surprised to see a summer correction in the next month or so.
Persons: Tom McClellan, Nate Geraci, Schwab, Todd Sohn, Strategas, John Murphy, Banks, Murphy, UnitedHealth, Johnson, Abbott, Ed Yardeni, McClellan Organizations: The, Growth, P Technology, Microsoft, Apple, Nasdaq, NVIDIA, Meta, Technology, Health Care
July 20 (Reuters) - FTX Trading on Thursday sued founder Sam Bankman-Fried and other former executives of the cryptocurrency exchange, seeking to recoup more than $1 billion they allegedly misappropriated before FTX went bankrupt. FTX is now led by John Ray, who helped manage Enron after the energy trader's 2001 bankruptcy. FTX said Bankman-Fried and Wang also misappropriated $546 million to buy shares of Robinhood Markets (HOOD.O), while Ellison used $28.8 million to pay herself bonuses. The case is FTX Trading Ltd et al v Bankman-Fried et al, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Delaware, No. The main bankruptcy case is In re FTX Trading Ltd et al in the same court, No.
Persons: Sam Bankman, FTX, Caroline Ellison, Gary, Wang, Nishad Singh, Fried, John Ray, Ellison, Singh, Jonathan Stempel, Mike Scarcella, Leslie Adler Organizations: Alameda Research, Enron, U.S, Robinhood, Bankruptcy, District of, FTX, bk, Thomson Locations: Delaware, Alameda, U.S, District, District of Delaware, New York
The dismissal of Rohan Ramchandani's civil lawsuit by U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero was disclosed in a docket entry on Thursday in Manhattan federal court. Marrero plans to release his written decision after Citigroup and Ramchandani agree which information should be kept confidential. One year later, Ramchandani sued Citigroup, saying it fired him without cause in January 2014 amid a global probe into foreign exchange price fixing, and then shared false and "gravely derogatory" claims against him with law enforcement. Ramchandani accused Citigroup of entering its plea in part to shift blame away from senior managers and officers. The case is Ramchandani v. Citigroup Inc et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No.
Persons: Rohan Ramchandani's, District Judge Victor Marrero, Marrero, David Lurie, Danielle Romero, Apsilos, Ramchandani, Chris Ashton, Richard Usher, JPMorgan Chase, Ramchandani's, Jonathan Stempel, Marguerita Choy Organizations: YORK, Citigroup, U.S, District, Ramchandani, Barclays, JPMorgan, U.S . Department of Justice, Citigroup Inc, Court, Southern District of, Thomson Locations: U.S, London, Manhattan, New York, Southern District, Southern District of New York
Dow theory: a primer The rules around the Dow Theory were formulated more than 120 years ago by Charles Dow himself (though he himself never used the term Dow Theory). "Dow Theory was formulated when the Dow Industrials were stuff makers, and the railroads were stuff movers," Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report, told me. New Dow Theory also confirms a new high There have been attempts to formulate a "New Dow Theory." Tuesday, the S & P 500 closed at 4,554 (up 19% this year), and the Nasdaq closed at 14,354 (up 37% year-to-date). The S & P 500 is up 9% since May 1.
Persons: Dow, Charles Dow, Tom McClellan, McClellan, David Keller, Keller, hasn't, It's, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow Jones Transportation, Dow, Dow Theory, Dow Transports, Dow Railroads, FedEx, UPS, Nasdaq Locations: U.S, uptrends
For example, if a stock's price is below the VWAP, it may lure many traders into shorting it, he said. Since Sykes trades penny stocks with less trading volume, he uses indicators that help him determine whether his theses will play out. However, its importance is inferior to the above criteria because the catalyst could move a stock's price in either direction. On the morning of December 1, 2022, the stock's price plunged, creating a pattern he calls a morning panic. This trade fit Sykes' criteria because it had attention on it as a catalyst and created a pattern he trades.
Persons: Timothy Sykes, Sykes, Norman Zadeh, It's, they're, CLOW Organizations: Bollinger, United States, Nasdaq Locations: shorting
Stocks markets are wrapping up a surprisingly strong start to the year, but whether it will continue is an open question as investors wade into a seasonally weak period for markets. Even the laggard Dow Jones Industrial Average, with few tech stocks, managed to eke out a 3.6% gain. Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla account for 80% of the gains in the S & P 500, according to UBS. The S & P 500 health sector is down almost 3% this year. Next week marks the start of July and the third quarter of 2023.
Persons: didn't, Jamie Cox, Cox, John Lynch, Harris Financial's Cox, that's, Comerica's Lynch, Kim Forrest, Nonfarm payrolls Organizations: Spring, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Harris Financial, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, UBS, Comerica Wealth Management, Nasdaq, Investors, Bokeh Capital Partners, Independence, P Global, PMI, Tuesday U.S
The past decade has brought particularly strong months of July for the S & P 500 , according to Carson Group. And the firm's chief market strategist expects a similarly good performance this year. The S & P 500 is up more than 6% so far this quarter and more than 14% year to date. A continuation of those trends could lead the S & P 500 to an all-time high in the second half of the year, Detrick said. "The realization that the economy's on better footing could be the spark plug to keep the surprise summer rally going," Detrick said.
Persons: Carson, July's, Ryan Detrick, There's, we've, there's, Detrick Organizations: Carson Group, Stock, Federal Reserve
Against this backdrop, investors will head into the final week of June with a relatively light economic calendar. However, those few data sets could provide investors with clues on how the market will fare going into the second half. Key inflation data ahead Of note next week is the core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Reports to watch out for include Tuesday's new home sales and Thursday's pending home sales data, both for May. Elsewhere, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky warned this week the downside for tech names could be as "equally impressive" as their rally.
Persons: Jerome Powell, annualized, Dow Jones, Terry Sandven, Sandven, that's, Megan Horneman, Stephen Suttmeier, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Art Hogan, Hogan, Mills, Paychex Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Bank of England, Global Wealth Management, Americas, UBS, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Verdence Capital Advisors, Bank of America, Dow, Riley Wealth Management, Fed, Walgreens, Micron, Nike, Constellation Brands
Car listings platform Autotrader released its top 10 electric vehicles for 2023. EVs from brands like BMW, Ford, Hyundai, and Rivian made the cut this year. Tesla did not make the cut for Autotrader's top 10 electric vehicles of 2023. Autotrader, an online car shopping resource, released its list of this year's best EVs on Wednesday — and while brands like BMW, Hyundai, Ford, and more made the list, Elon Musk's company was notably missing. The list includes only pure electric vehicles and does not feature any hybrids, plug-ins, or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.
Persons: Rivian, Tesla, Elon, they're Organizations: BMW, Ford, Hyundai, Vehicles, EV
For now, it's not a brighter economic picture or an exuberant earnings outlook pushing stocks higher. Another reason that some investors have come back to stocks is simply because the S & P 500 ended the week more than 23% above last October's low. "The next level of resistance is above 4,500 on the S & P. Historically, the market gains 14.5% on average between the 20% threshold level and the next decline of 5% or more. "Inflation peaked in June of last year and has been rapidly declining over the past 12 months. Trading the week after is often treacherous, Hirsch said, with the Dow Jones Industrials falling in 27 of the past 33 years and the S & P 500 down in 23 of 33 years.
Persons: it's, Sam Stovall, Clinton, Wells Fargo, Chris Harvey, Harvey, Jay Hatfield, Price, CarMax, Stovall, Jeffrey Hirsch, Hirsch, Dow Jones Industrials, York Fed's John Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Avid Bioservices, Patterson Cos, Christopher Waller, Michael Bloom, Fred Imbert, Alex Harring Organizations: Fed, CFRA, Microsoft, Infrastructure Capital Management, Consumer, PPI, FedEx, Darden, Dow, Housing, Financial, Enerpac, Avid, Banking, Accenture, Commercial Metals, P, PMI Locations: New York, York, Dublin
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