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FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The European Central Bank and other policymakers across Europe need to keep interest rates at current elevated levels until they're sure inflation is under control despite sluggish growth, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday, warning against “premature celebration” as inflation declines from its peak. Alfred Kammer, director of the IMF's Europe department, warned against “premature celebration" as he spoke to journalists in connection with the outlook. The European Central Bank has raised its benchmark deposit rate by fully 4.5 percentage points between July 2022 and September 2023, from minus 0.5% to 4%. If inflation falls faster than expected, it will boost consumer real income and spending and growth might improve. But an escalation of Russia's war against Ukraine and accompanying increased sanctions and disruptions to trade could mean weaker growth.
Persons: Alfred Kammer, Kammer, , Organizations: European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, ECB, IMF, Ukraine Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Europe, Washington, Israel, Gaza
Market researcher Kantar said annual grocery inflation was 9.7% in the four weeks to Oct. 29, down from 11% in last month's report. The Kantar data provides the most up-to-date snapshot of UK grocery inflation. Kantar said grocery sales in the four weeks to Oct. 29 rose by 7.4% compared with last year. Spending on promotions hit 27.2% of total grocery sales – the highest level since Christmas last year. UK supermarkets' market share and sales growth (%)Source: Kantar($1 = 0.8061 pounds)Reporting by James Davey Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Phil Noble, Kantar, Fraser McKevitt, Rishi Sunak, James Davey, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Altrincham, Britain
Ted Rossman senior industry analyst at BankrateIn addition to soaring food and housing costs, millennials and Gen Z face other financial challenges their parents did not as young adults. Gen Z workers are the biggest cohort of nonsavers, Bankrate also found. Most financial experts recommend having at least three to six months' worth of expenses set aside. "Every dollar you set aside in your 20s will compound over time," Rossman said. "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world," Rossman added, referring to an earlier comment Einstein reportedly said.
Persons: Ted Rossman, Gen Zers, Gen, Bankrate, Kara Duckworth, Duckworth, Rossman, Einstein Organizations: Getty, Financial Independence, Bankrate, Bank of America, Intuit, Mercer Advisors
In Europe, inflation peaked at a painful 10.6% in October for the 20 countries that use the euro currency as Russia's war in Ukraine took a toll. But with inflation now down to 4.3%, analysts expect the ECB to hold off on more hikes during its meeting in Athens. Political Cartoons View All 1218 ImagesSurveys of purchasing managers by S&P Global indicate that economic activity fell in October. Its biggest economy, Germany, is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to shrink by 0.5% this year, making it the world's worst performing major economy. “The ECB won’t be in any rush to take further action,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING bank.
Persons: hasn't, , Carsten Brzeski, Christine Lagarde, aren't Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Union, ABN Amro, International Monetary Fund, IMF, , ECB won’t, ING Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Israel, Europe, Ukraine, Athens, Frankfurt, Russia, East, Iran
The last Monetary Policy Committee meeting in September resulted in five members voting to pause, just outnumbering the four who sought another increase. So far, investors are not challenging the BoE's message that interest rates will stay high for a considerable period. BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill likened the outlook for monetary policy to the lofty, flat and long profile of Table Mountain during a visit to South Africa in late August. But economists expected little change in the BoE's previous forecasts that inflation will fall to 2% in two years' time. "Recent geopolitical events will probably induce a modicum of monetary policy caution, reinforcing the likelihood of unaltered policy settings," analysts at NatWest Markets said.
Persons: Hollie Adams, BoE, Andrew Bailey, James Smith, Smith, BOE, Huw Pill, Pill, Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Price, William Schomberg, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Reuters, ING, Investors, U.S . Federal, Monetary Fund, NatWest Markets, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, South Africa
Electronic boards showing stock information are pictured at the stock market, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, November 5, 2020. "Such an escalation could lead to increased oil prices, concerns about oil supply, and the potential for a global economic downturn." In the unlikely event the United States sends troops into the Middle East, Belote expected a $20 jump in oil prices, "if not more". "Israel has better relations with other Arab countries compared to then," JP Morgan private bank strategist Madison Faller said in a note, "and global oil supply is not as concentrated." Reuters Graphics5/ TECH JITTERSWhat's good for oil stocks can be bad for big tech.
Persons: Abdel Hadi Ramahi, Hamza Meddeb, Malcolm H, Brent Belote, Belote, JP, Madison Faller, Nadia Martin Wiggen, Alessia Berardi, Amundi's Berardi, Trevor Greetham, Morgan Stanley, Jeff, London's Greetham, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, Oil, JP Morgan, Svelland, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Reuters, Swiss, Royal, Aegon, Deutsche Bank, Aerospace, Thomson Locations: Dubai, United Arab, Israel, Gaza, Beirut, IRAN, Iran, U.S, United States, Arab, Turkey, Ukraine, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Suez, London
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo financial experts discuss inflation's impact on the broader marketsGreg Branch, Managing Partner at Veritas Financial, and Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategy Analyst at Baird, discuss the impact of inflation and rising rates on the broader markets.
Persons: Branch, Ross Mayfield, Baird Organizations: Veritas Financial, Investment
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli is bullish near term, but expects headwinds in the mediumAdam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge Founder and James Demmert, Main Street Research CIO, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss rising yields and inflation's impact on the markets.
Persons: Adam Crisafulli, James Demmert Organizations: Vital Knowledge, Street Research
Morning Bid: Fed's dovish shift welcomed; inflation's next
  + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Futures pricing suggests traders now see about a 30% chance of another rate hike this year, down from about 45% a week ago. Ahead on Wednesday, the European Central Bank's inflation survey and U.S. producer price data will lead in to U.S. inflation data on Thursday. The S&P 500's retreat on Tuesday from the day's high, closing only 0.5% firmer, also suggests nervousness. Later in the week U.S. corporate earnings season hits full swing, with bank profits set to rise. Overnight markets welcomed Pepsi (PEP.O) promising to keep on lifting prices, which is a good sign for demand but perhaps a warning sign for inflation.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Westbrook Stocks, Raphael Bostic, Fed's Bowman, Waller, Collins, Tom Westbrook, Edmund Klamann Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Bankers, Atlanta Fed, Pepsi, Exxon Mobil, U.S, Natural Resources, Reuters, Bank, PPI, Thomson Locations: Washington, Nashville, Asia, Finland, Estonia, Marrakech, Morocco, Bostic
[1/4] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. The IMF adjusted this year's stress test to probe the impact of its baseline economic scenario of higher interest rates for longer, as well as the possibility of consumers yanking deposits. "Under the baseline, it's about 5% of banks that are relatively weak in terms of their capital. And in severe stress, that number goes up to 30% or sometimes higher," Adrian said. The IMF did not identify the banks that could be in trouble if those economic circumstances arose, but they included both small and large lenders.
Persons: Yuri Gripas, Tobias Adrian, Adrian, There's, Pete Schroeder, Michelle Price, Paul Simao Organizations: Monetary Fund, REUTERS, Rights, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Valley Bank, Switzerland's Credit Suisse Group, Monetary, Capital Markets Department, Palestinian, World Bank, U.S, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, California, Israel, Gaza, Marrakech, Morocco, Italy, Federal, U.S
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reacts as he heads into the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. "On the real side I feel like nothing has happened so far that is convincing evidence that we are off the golden path," Goolsbee said on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, recorded on Tuesday and aired on Thursday. Their projections also showed they expect to end next year with only a slightly higher unemployment rate, of 4.1%, and a slightly lower policy rate, of 5.1%. Should the rise in long-term yields go so far as to trigger a surge in unemployment or sharp slowdown in economic activity, the Fed will adjust, Goolsbee said. "We absolutely monitor that and are thinking about that, and that could be a blow to either the financial or the real economy," Goolsbee said.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Ann Saphir, Goolsbee, it's, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Fed, Kansas City, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Goolsbee
watch nowWhen Jacynthe Riviere graduated from college with an accounting degree, "there were plenty of jobs," she said — and "the big firms paid well." That year, graduates earned $23,278, on average, or $68,342 in today's dollars, roughly $7,254 more than 2023 graduates, according to a recent report by Self Financial. In four decades, graduate salaries have decreased by more than 10% after adjusting for inflation, the report found. To be sure, inflation's recent run-up has made it even harder for those just starting out. Online tools can helpGo back to basics
Persons: Jacynthe Riviere, , Riviere Organizations: Self Financial Locations: Puerto Rico
Shawn Fain’s Economic Reality Test
  + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Journal Editorial Report: A Census Bureau report reveals inflation's corrosive effects. Images: DPA via Zuma Press/Getty Images Composite: Mark KellyThe United Auto Workers (UAW) strike is going on day five, and President Shawn Fain has rejected the latest offer from Stellantis of a 21% pay raise over four years. He keeps citing corporate “greed” like a mantra. Yet it was telling this weekend when he refused to discuss the union’s impact on future job creation.
Persons: Mark Kelly, Shawn Fain Organizations: Zuma Press, United Auto Workers, UAW
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday gave investors tips for what to focus on during the coming week, highlighting the Federal Reserve's Wednesday decision on interest rate hikes for the rest of the year. Grocery-delivery company Instacart may also release initial public offering pricing Monday night, Cramer said, and Tuesday will bring an earnings report from AutoZone. "When there's a Fed meeting coming up in less than a week and nobody seems worried about it, maybe you want to brace yourself for a little turbulence," he said. On Thursday, Cramer will be looking at Olive Garden owner Darden 's earnings report, which may provide some clarity on whether consumers are spending money dining out. And Friday will mark a week since the United Auto Workers union went on strike against the country's primary automakers.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, We've, there's, Jay Powell, Cramer, Jerome Powell, I'm, Powell, General Mills, Darden, Shawn Fain Organizations: Disney, ESPN, ABC, Nexstar, AutoZone, FedEx, KB, Fed, Olive Garden, United Auto Workers Locations: Orlando , Florida, General
By the end of the year, the Fed will choose between the economy and its inflation target, Mohamed El-Erian said. The central will decide if it can tolerate inflation at 3% or higher — above its 2% target. Or the Fed will choose to "crush" the economy to reach its long-standing goal, he told CNBC. "The Fed at the end of the year is going to have a choice: You live with 3% or higher inflation, or your crush the economy," he said, adding that he hopes the Fed doesn't crush the economy. Though central bankers are officially aiming to lower inflation to a 2% long-run target, doing so could spark a severe downturn for the US economy, El-Erian has previously warned.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Organizations: CNBC, Service, Reserve, Allianz, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, El
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer confidence is starting to coincide with gas prices, says Conference Board CEOSteve Odland, The Conference Board CEO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the CPI report and inflation's impact on consumers.
Persons: Steve Odland Organizations: Conference
Kevin O'Leary finds it surprising the US economy has avoided a recession so far. The "Shark Tank" investor expects interest and mortgage rates to rise further. The US economy has managed to escape a recession so far — but mortgage rates are headed higher in the months ahead, he said. "We have this weird situation in America, we're at full employment," the "Shark Tank" investor told Fox News. Wonderful" — said interest rates were on track to hit 6% at least, pushing mortgage rates from about 7% today to above 8%.
Persons: Kevin O'Leary, Jerome Powell, Jim Chanos, O'Leary, Organizations: Service, we're, Fox News, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, America, Texas, Florida
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Fundstrat's Tom Lee on market outlook and inflation readingsTom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the latest job openings data, the Fed rhetoric that would back up inflation's trajectory, and Lee's insights from Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Tom Lee, Powell's Jackson Organizations: Fundstrat Global Advisors
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation on a 'glide path lower' following JOLTs data and other signs, says Fundstrat's Tom LeeTom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the latest job openings data, the Fed rhetoric that would back up inflation's trajectory, and Lee's insights from Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
Persons: Tom Lee Tom Lee, Powell's Jackson Organizations: Fundstrat Global Advisors
US stocks rose Friday as markets brushed off Powell's warnings of more possible Fed tightening. The Fed chief said the central bank could hike interest rates further "if appropriate" to tame inflation. Investors seemed to ignore the warning, pushing to the Dow up almost 250 points during the session. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. "Beyond September, markets may have to adjust the rate outlook higher, particularly if the recent run of faster than expected growth continues to play out."
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, Wealth's Gary Pzegeo Organizations: Fed, Dow, Service, CIBC, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon
"I just think he's going to play it about as down the middle as possible," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America. "He's got to strike that chord that the Fed is going to finish the job. "He's going to want to be a little more hawkish than neutral. But he's not going to deliver what he delivered last year. A Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August's figures will show a noticeable jump.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Win Mcnamee, Joseph LaVorgna, circumspect, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, He's, It's, Quincy Krosby, he's, Inflation's, Krosby, Patrick Harker, you've, Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jackson Organizations: Financial, Federal, Getty, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Research, National Economic Council, LPL, Cleveland, San Francisco Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Washington , DC, circumspect Powell
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Tech rallied amid rising yieldsThe Nasdaq Composite rallied Monday, breaking a four-day losing streak, even as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 4.342%, a decades-long high. Nasdaq listing for ArmArm filed for a Nasdaq listing Monday. CNBC Pro's Bob Pisani gives two reasons why investors are still calm — and one why they should perhaps start worrying.
Persons: Softbank, aren't, Bob Pisani Organizations: Nvidia, Entertainment, CNBC, Tech, Nasdaq, Treasury, Dow Jones, New, Federal, aren't panicking Locations: China, Shanghai
There's "no way" bonds are better than stocks for long-term investors, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said. By the time investors have doubled their money in bonds, they've quintupled their money in stocks, he estimated. Siegel has turned more bullish on stocks and the US economy over the past year amid inflation's decline. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is currently trading with price-to-earnings ratio of about 20, which means stocks have around a 5% yield. "By the time you've doubled your money in bonds, you've multiplied your money by five times in stocks," Siegel said in an interview with CNBC on Monday.
Persons: Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, they've, Siegel, Jay Powell Organizations: Service, Treasury, Securities, Federal Reserve, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon
The balanced portfolio — reported by many to have died in 2022 — is experiencing a revival. The iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (AOR) that mimics the strategy lost 15.6% in 2022, including reinvested dividends. Investors sitting tight were rewarded, however, as 2023's run-up in stocks helped lift the 60/40 model. "And thanks to higher interest rates, investors are getting much higher compensation for taking interest rate risk compared to 2021-2022." A 60/40 portfolio isn't right for all investors and their situations, but it does create a foundation for sound investments, said Preston Cherry, CFP and founder of Concurrent Financial Planning.
Persons: , Seema Shah, Ryan Salah, Salah, US6M, Preston Cherry, bode, Cherry Organizations: Asset Management, Capital Financial Partners, Federal, CFP, CNBC
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is not going to cut rates 'in absence of anything breaking down': JPMorgan’s Oksana AronovOksana Aronov, JPMorgan Asset Management head of market strategy and alternative fixed income, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's rate hike campaign, risks to inflation's downward path, and more.
Persons: Oksana Aronov Oksana Aronov Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
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