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The four best-performing stocks in the S & P 500 year to date were down an average of 13.5% last week. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500's performance in the past five trading days. The anchoring effect of a persistently strong half-dozen $1-trillion to $3-trillion companies atop the S & P 500 while most stocks wallowed had the effect of suppressing index volatility. The S & P 500 is now about 3% off its record, and the Nasdaq 100 is in a roughly 5% retreat from its high. History says when the S & P 500 has been up more than 10% in the first half of a year , as in 2024, it has gone to further highs by year's end nearly every time.
Persons: Russell, Donald Trump, Cash, Parag Thatte, Thatte, Goldman Sachs, wallowed, Cantor Fitzgerald Organizations: Axonic Capital, Deutsche Bank, Nasdaq
This week, the benchmark Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) and the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) are down 6.2% and 4.6%, respectively. Residential solar stocks, including Enphase , Sunnova , Sunrun , SolarEdge and SunPower , would face a "severe impact" if Republicans successfully weaken or entirely repeal the IRA, according to Piper. The stock in the clean energy space with the least exposure to election risks is GE Vernova , according to a July slide deck from JPMorgan on clean energy. As a domestic manufacturer, First Solar potentially stands to benefit if the U.S. trade war with China intensifies under a Trump administration, according to Kallo. Though total IRA repeal may be unlikely, solar and clean energy stocks will "continue to be volatile until (and even after) the election due to headline risk," Kallo said.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden's, Biden, Piper Sandler, Wolfe, Piper, Enphase, SolarEdge, SunPower, Trump, Baird, Ben Kallo, Kallo Organizations: Republican Party, Democratic Party, Trump, Senate, Clean Energy, U.S, White House, Congress, Wolfe Research, Tax, Technologies, Republicans, GE Vernova, JPMorgan, GE, GOP, UBS, CNBC, Republican Locations: U.S, Ohio , Alabama, Louisiana, China
Investors looking for stock investments on the cheap should look abroad, according to Schroders investment strategist Bob Armstrong. Europe's Stoxx 600 index and the Japanese Nikkei 225 hit record highs earlier this year, along with the S & P 500 . FactSet data shows the former trades at 15 times trailing 12-month earnings, while the latter has a multiple of 23. The S & P 500, meanwhile sports a 27 times earnings multiple. Year to date, the Nikkei is up nearly 20%, outpacing the S & P 500's 17% jump.
Persons: Bob Armstrong, Europe's, Armstrong, Armstrong didn't Organizations: Nikkei, CNBC, Tokyo, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF Locations: U.S, Europe, Armstrong, Russia, Ukraine, Japan
Investors are flocking to small-cap stocks right now, driving this segment of the market to new highs this week. He also noted that the Russell 2000 is outperforming the S & P 500 by the widest margin since November 2021. But according to him, one group of small-cap stocks could do well if rates were to stay higher for longer: regional banks. However, Turnquist cautioned that small-cap growth stocks would find the outlook tougher than small-cap value stocks, as they are more sensitive to economic health. How to play small-caps Investors who have been making a play for small-caps include billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller , who revealed a big bullish position in small-cap stocks last quarter.
Persons: Russell, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, we've, There's, Trump, Kelvin Wong, Donald Trump, Wong, Stanley Druckenmiller, FactSet, David Dietze, Dietze, Jay Hatfield, Kilroy, Jefferies, Hatfield, , Yun Li Organizations: CNBC, LPL, U.S . Federal, Federal Reserve, Citi, Wealth Management, CNBC Pro, Corp, Jefferies Locations: U.S, America
Stanley Druckenmiller , still basking in his winning Nvidia bet, has hit another home run in this bull market. When Druckenmiller acquired the position in the first quarter, small caps were significantly underperforming their large-cap counterparts. Druckenmiller once managed George Soros' Quantum Fund and shot to fame after helping make a $10 billion bet against the British pound in 1992. After the stock soared from $150 to above $900, Druckenmiller slashed the stake. A lot of what we recognized has become recognized by the marketplace now," Druckenmiller said on CNBC at the time.
Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Druckenmiller, Russell, George Soros, bullish, We've Organizations: Nvidia, Duquesne Family Office, Investment, SEC, Quantum Fund, Duquesne Capital Management, CNBC
The Astoria US Equal Weight Quality Kings ETF (ROE) , which launched in 2023, is up 17.6% year to date through Tuesday's close, according to FactSet. By comparison, the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and iShares MSCI USA Equal Weighted ETF (EUSA) are up 9.7% and 10.1%, respectively. ROE YTD mountain This equal weighted ETF is outperforming some of its rivals in 2024. The Astoria fund is underperforming some other funds that focus on quality, like the iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL) . The Astoria fund also has a higher expense ratio than some of its rivals at 0.49%.
Persons: John Davi, ROE, Davi, Frank Tedesco, Todd Sohn Organizations: Astoria, RSP, EUSA, Nvidia, Big Tech Locations: ROE
As is clear, that objective is considerably higher than the 2021 peak, which was the last time IWM made a new all-time high. The obvious question then would be this: If IWM does, in fact, make a new all-time high, what happens next? First, notice how well the IWM/SPX relative line performed as it rallied from a key low to a peak since 2011. Conversely, during the three times that IWM has broken out to new highs in absolute terms, the IWM/SPX relative line has declined soon thereafter. In fact, the relative line has been diverging from IWM for 13 years and hasn't made a higher high since 2011.
Persons: Russell, IWM, shouldn't, What's, hasn't, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: IWM
The rotation trade likely won't save the S & P 500 from a double-digit correction ahead, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. On the other hand, the mega-cap tech stocks have faltered. But Stovall is skeptical, saying he anticipates an S & P 500 pullback ahead, possibly in September, in the low double-digits. Expensive valuations Central to the strategist's concern is the overbought nature of large-cap tech stocks. Rotate into very attractive mid- and small-cap stocks or mid- and small-cap ETFs," Stovall said.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Russell, Stovall Organizations: CFRA Research, Federal, Nvidia, CNBC Locations: Great
A week ago, investors were scoffing at the idea that small caps and value stocks might have a genuine summer rally. The S & P 500 Value ETF (IVE) , which holds stocks like Berkshire Hathaway , JP Morgan , Exxon Mobil and Johnson & Johnson , finally hit a new high after lagging the tech-dominated S & P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) for more than a year. This fund holds the entire stock market, minus the S & P 500. VXF 1M mountain Vanguard Extended Market ETF over the past month. This trend of buying small caps and value is clearly more than a one-day wonder: It's now a one-week wonder.
Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan, Johnson, Dave Nadig, Russell Organizations: Exxon Mobil, Johnson, Value, Opportunity Locations: Berkshire, United States
The broadening market rally has Bank of America forecasting further upside for the S & P 500 . Strategist Stephen Suttmeier estimates the broad market index will reach 6,150, which is 8.5% higher than Tuesday's close. Suttmeier said the S & P 500's broadening market rally participation supports more upside potential to the 6,150 level. In addition, the strategist said the number of S & P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages has improved to indicate stabilizing market breadth. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2024 Suttmeier believes the iShares Russell 2000 ETF , which tracks the benchmark small-cap index, can break out to as high as 260.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Russell, Suttmeier, , Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, NYSE, Dow Jones
Defense has historically outperformed when there's been a single party in control across Congress and the executive branch — in particular, the Republican Party, according to Wells Fargo analyst Matthew Akers. However, Akers believes the defense sector may not benefit if there's a Republican sweep this election cycle. Another two years of low growth for both defense and non-defense looks likely to us," Akers wrote in a Tuesday note. The firm said a Trump presidency is positive for the defense sector. The firm cited the Republican Party's platform, which highlights a "strong military," restoring peace and "made in America" defense systems.
Persons: there's, Wells, Matthew Akers, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Akers, Trump, TD Cowen Organizations: GOP, Defense, Republican Party, Democrat, Republican, NATO, Ukraine, Caucus, China, Boeing, " Aircraft, Akers, U.S . Aerospace & Defense ETF, ITA Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S, China, America
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on July 11, 2024 in New York City. The Russell 2000 index , the benchmark for the group, hit its highest level since January 2022 on Monday. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF, which tracks the index, was up about 1% in premarket trading Tuesday. The ETF is up 9% over the last one month, nearly triple the gains in the S&P 500. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Russell 2000Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who's been correctly calling the stock market for the past few years, said the rally in small caps could last for more than two months, seeing dramatic gains for this cohort.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Russell, Tom Lee, who's, Lee Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Investment Locations: New York City
Charles Schwab – The financial services giant slid more than 10% following its second quarter results. Earnings for the second quarter were 83 cents a share, topping the 80 cents expected from analysts polled by LSEG. UnitedHealth – The stock popped 6.5% after the health insurance giant posted second quarter results that came in better than expected. PNC Financial – The bank stock jumped 4.7% after stronger-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. Rio Tinto said that its Pilbara iron ore production in the second quarter came in 2% lower compared to the year-ago period.
Persons: Charles Schwab –, LSEG, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, FactSet, , Sarah Min, Lisa Kailai Han, Pia Singh, Jesse Pound, Michelle Fox, Darla Mercado Organizations: Group, Match Group, Bank of America, LSEG . Revenue, Revenue, PNC Financial, PNC, Rio Tinto –, Rio Tinto, U.S, Home, Federal Reserve, Toll, Builders, . Semiconductor, Nvidia, Devices, Broadcom, VanEck Semiconductor Locations: Rio, Rio Tinto – The
With over 50 years of experience in the gold industry, Milling-Stanley believes today's macroeconomic environment is ripe for gold to outperform. The possibility of a rate cut in the next six months has been looming over the economy, which should boost the price of gold, Milling-Stanley said. State Street Global AdvisorsUS dollar depreciation will also push gold prices up, he said. He estimates a 50% probability of gold prices ending the year in the $2,200 to $2,500 range and a 30% probability of prices rising between $2,500 and $2,700. Other cost-efficient options include the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (AAAU), and GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR).
Persons: , George Milling, Stanley, there's, I've, He's, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Stanley, Trust, Business, Street Global Advisors, Stanely, Street Global, MiniShares, Gold Miners, Miners Locations: Nigeria, Ukraine, China, Taiwan
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC's " Squawk on the Street " that he sees a future for bitcoin after previously being a " proud skeptic " of the cryptocurrency. "I'm a major believer that there's a role for bitcoin in portfolios," Fink said Monday, calling it "digital gold." The firm's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has raked in more than $18 billion since its launch in January, making it the biggest bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Fink said political risk and rising government debt are some of the reasons for investors to own bitcoin. Fink said even outside of bitcoin, he sees rising public spending as one of the biggest issues facing the world.
Persons: Bitcoin, Larry Fink, CNBC's, Fink, I'm, bitcoin Organizations: BlackRock, bitcoin, Nasdaq Locations: lockstep, bitcoin
Oppenheimer views last week's rally in small-cap stocks as a potential catalyst for the wider market and its future returns. "The point is that last week's small-cap breakout marks a re-broadening of the bull that should carry bullish implications for all capitalizations." .RUT YTD mountain Performance in 2024 The comments from Wald came on the heels of last week's 6% surge in the Russell 2000 index of small caps. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF added as much as another 1.6% early in Monday's session. "In our view, this cycle's 'as good as it gets moment' has not yet been reached," Wald said.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, Wald, Russell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Viking Therapeutics, Zeta Global
Doing a sum-of-the-parts analysis of Blackrock's ETF business would be a difficult endeavor, but certainly revenue, assets under management (AUM), and growth potential are important factors. So the iShares ETF revenue was about a third of Blackrock's revenue, and Warren said that segment is still growing. By any metric, Blackrock's ETF business just keeps getting more valuable. The entire ETF business is growingBlackrock's ETF business is a gold mine, but total AUM for the entire ETF business now a bit over $9 trillion, which means Blackrock and a few rivals control a staggering amount of ETF investment dollars. The search for new revenue is endlessThe ETF business is still raking in money, but there is tremendous fee pressure across the entire ETF universe, so the search for more revenue goes on.
Persons: Larry Fink, Greggory Warren, Warren, Schwab, Fink, " Fink Organizations: BlackRock, Barclays, Morningstar, Blackrock, Investors Locations: BlackRock, Manhattan, New York City, Blackrock, United States, London, Canada, U.S
The Russell 2000 gained 6% last week, its best week of the year, and looks poised to rally further on Monday. A cool consumer price index report last week was seen as a major catalyst for small caps, as it suggested interest rates could go lower. "Many investors view small caps as a potential 'Trump trade,' but the path for small cap outperformance is a narrow one," the note said. Kostin said that small caps outperformed after Trump's 2016 election, but that was when interest rates were much lower. The Goldman note was published before the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday.
Persons: Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Russell, David Kostin, Joe Biden, PredictIt, Kostin, Trump, Goldman Organizations: Republican, Trump
If Thursday's move into real estate stocks is reflective of a bigger trend, there's still time to make winning investments in the housing sector. As big technology stocks tumbled, traders jumped into real estate-connected holdings on a hunch that the sector would benefit from a lower-rate environment. Exactly 55% of analysts rate the stock a buy, with an average price target showing shares can rise close to 15%. About 2 out of every 3 analysts rate the stock a buy, and the average price target implies shares can climb almost 20%. The average price target reflects further upside of more than 16% over the next year.
Persons: Wells, Sam Reid, Reid, Azek, Reuben Garner, Seth Sigman, Sigman Organizations: Home, CNBC Pro, CNBC, Toll, Barclays Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
He favors small-cap, mid-cap, and quality stocks over the Big Tech mega-caps leading the market rally for three reasons. One is that the earnings winning streak that Magnificent Seven stocks have enjoyed is simply difficult to keep going. In the first quarter of this year, Magnificent Seven earnings grew by 50% annualized year-over-year, according to Ned Davis Research. Wall Street estimates Magnificent Seven earnings will grow by 28% year-over-year in Q2. When it comes to innovating and adapting, small and mid-cap companies' size gives them a relative advantage.
Persons: , Larry Kochard, Ned Davis, Kochard, reinvesting, It's, it's Organizations: Service, Big Tech, Capital Management, Business, Ned Davis Research, Wall, The, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, European Union, Quality
Investors endured a historic move in U.S. equities Thursday as the Russell 2000 gained roughly 3.5% while the S & P 500 dropped almost 1%. Although the small-cap index has dragged the megacap driven S & P 500 for years, I believe now is the time to own the iShares Russell 2000 ETF . IWM .SPX YTD mountain iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) vs S & P 500 year-to-date Small caps seemingly benefited from Thursday's cooler-than-expected June consumer inflation report via CPI, signaling the Fed could kick off their interest rate cutting campaign in September now. Thursday was just the second day since 1979 when the Russell 2000 rose more than 3% while the S & P 500 declined. In the event the IWM does not move higher, an investor has to be prepared (with the cash) to own IWM for a longer term play.
Persons: Russell, IWM Organizations: CPI, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
IWM 5D mountain iShares Russell 2000 ETF Next week's earnings results will help investors glean whether that rotation trade is sustainable. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is weighted more toward the real economy than is the S & P 500 and Nasdaq, rose to a new record above 40,000. According to FactSet consensus estimates, S & P 500 companies are set to post blended earnings growth of 9.2% in the second quarter. "It's not unthinkable to see us exiting this year at 5,800 on the S & P," he said. This follows a difficult 2Q, when 75% of Large Cap Core managers trailed the S & P 500," Palfrey wrote.
Persons: Patrick Palfrey, Hogan, Keith Buchanan, Buchanan, Palfrey, David Sekera, Quincy Krosby, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Huntington Organizations: Nasdaq, UBS, Investors, Riley, Dow Jones, Globalt Investments, Riley Securities, Big Tech, Core, LPL, BlackRock, Bank of America, Taiwan Semiconductor, Price, Retail, Hunt Transport Services, State, PNC Financial Services, UnitedHealth, United Airlines, Discover Financial Services, U.S . Bancorp, Johnson, Citizens Financial Group, Philadelphia Fed, Netflix, T Bank, KeyCorp, American Express, Halliburton, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Locations: Nasdaq, NAHB, Horton, Blackstone, Taiwan
For passive investors, it's the best of times: They're seeing new highs on the two major cap-weighted indexes — S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite — with low volatility. One example is the Invesco S & P 500 Momentum ETF (SPMO) , which tracks the S & P 500 Momentum Index. That index follows the performance of stocks in the S & P 500 that have a high "momentum score." Momentum ETFs in 2024 S & P 500 up 18.1% Invesco S & P Momentum ETF (SPMO) up 39.9% iShares USA Momentum Factor (MTUM) up 28.5% Both ETFs also have concentrated bets. Why momentum is a risky strategy Let the buyer beware: Everyone looks like a genius holding on to winners in up markets.
Persons: Staples, Invesco, Eli Lilly, it's, It's, rebalanced, Rebalancing Organizations: Nasdaq, Tech, YTD Technology, Energy, Services, Momentum, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan, Costco Locations: rebalancing
The rally for Japanese stocks is set to continue in the second half of the year, but the best way for American investors to participate in it could change, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute. The firm said in its midyear outlook that being overweight on Japanese stocks is one of its highest conviction calls. Many Americans have already been rushing into funds that track Japanese stocks, part of a broader increase in foreign investor money . HEWJ YTD mountain Currency-hedged Japanese funds like the HEWJ are outperforming their unhedged counterparts in 2024. Goldman Sachs Asset Management said in its midyear outlook that "in Japan, we expect strong equity market performance to continue being driven by structural changes."
Persons: Wei Li, Li Organizations: BlackRock Investment Institute, U.S ., BlackRock, Goldman, Management Locations: U.S, BlackRock, Japan, bullish
Jeffrey Buchbinder, the chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, doesn't think the rally is sustainable. Although stocks will likely continue rising for a while longer this earnings season, Buchbinder advises investors to prepare for a pullback later this year. Given his uninspired view on how stocks will perform, Buchbinder recommends waiting and buying the dip when the market eventually corrects. For investors' existing equity allocations, Buchbinder recommends leaning toward domestic equities, with a focus on growth stocks. ETFs like the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG), iShares Morningstar Growth ETF (ILCG), and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) all provide exposure to growth stocks.
Persons: , Jeffrey Buchbinder, doesn't, Buchbinder, LPL, iShares Organizations: Service, LPL, Business, Wall Street, Bloomberg, ISM, Investors, Buchbinder, Vanguard, Franklin FTSE Locations: Japan, Franklin FTSE Japan
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