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Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon, and Ray Dalio all have serious concerns about the US economic outlook. Leon Cooperman, David Solomon, and David Rosenberg have also predicted trouble in recent days. AdvertisementAdvertisementJamie Dimon, Elon Musk, and Ray Dalio are just some of the high-profile commentators who've raised the alarm on the economic outlook in recent days. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla"I think there's still quite a few shoes to drop on the bad credit situation. David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research"I am willing to acknowledge that the recession has been delayed.
Persons: Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, Leon Cooperman, David Solomon, David Rosenberg, , who've, Jeremy Grantham, Tesla, I'm, Rosenberg, We've, Goldman Sachs, there's, we've, Larry Fink, Fink, Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone, we'll, Harley Bassman Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Omega, Bridgewater Associates Locations: Israel, Ukraine, China
The billionaire investor said he didn't expect the S&P 500 to hit a fresh high for a long time. Cooperman said a "rolling correction" was underway and house prices were likely to drop. AdvertisementAdvertisementLeon Cooperman said stocks were overpriced, and the S&P 500 wouldn't notch a fresh high for a very long time. AdvertisementAdvertisementA handful of Big Tech names, including Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft, have pulled the major indexes higher this year, but excluding the so-called Magnificent Seven, stocks are virtually flat. He said in February that the S&P 500 was likely to bottom around 3,100 points, or 35% below its January 2022 peak.
Persons: Leon Cooperman, Cooperman, , Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Goldman Sachs, Tesla Organizations: Service, Omega Advisors, Big Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Wall, Finance, Philanthropy Locations: Bronx
Stocks are in a historic bubble and could crash by over 60%, John Hussman says. The markets guru says the S&P 500 looks very expensive and is priced to yield negative returns. He cautioned that virtually every market cycle in history has ended with projected S&P 500 total returns returning to historical norms. Hussman noted the S&P 500 is priced today for a negative return over the next 10 to 12 years. The markets guru said stocks won't necessarily crash, but "when the bough breaks, my sense is that it may break abruptly."
Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Jeremy Grantham, , Buckle, GMO's Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, Investment, Federal
In a recent note to clients, Kantrowitz highlighted unemployment claims data leading up to the Great Recession. But looking at the revised data, a clearer trend starts in September of 2007, he said. Looking at prior yield curve inversions, it's taken more than 12 months for jobless claims to start to meaningfully trend upward. Piper SandlerAnother indicator that tells Kantrowitz that jobless claims are going to start increase is — interestingly enough — furniture sales. For example, Bank of America and JPMorgan strategists both walked back their 2023 recession calls earlier this year.
Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, it's, Kantrowitz, there's, he's, Jeremy Grantham, Gary Shilling Organizations: Wall Street, The Conference Board, RBC, Bank of America, JPMorgan
DETROIT (AP) — The United Auto Workers union isn't adding any factories to those that are now on strike, but its president says more walkouts could begin at any moment. But UAW President Shawn Fain told workers in a live video appearance that the companies started gaming the system, waiting until Fridays to make progress in bargaining. “We will be calling out plants when we need to, where we need to, with little notice,” Fain said on Friday morning. “We're not sticking to one pattern or one system of giving these companies an extra hour or an extra day. The UAW then made a surprise move on Wednesday, escalating the strikes by adding a huge Ford pickup truck and SUV plant in Kentucky.
Persons: Shawn Fain, ” Fain, , Ford, Kumar Galhotra, , Galhotra, Fain, “ Ford, Wyatte Grantham Organizations: DETROIT, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Detroit, GM, Ford, UAW, Ford Blue, Philips Locations: Kentucky, Ford, New York
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel rejects the notion that US stocks are overvalued, saying they are in fact "underpriced". "Even if there is a mild recession, these are great long-term values," Siegel said, referring to the current levels in stocks. Wharton finance professor and markets guru Jeremy Siegel suggests just the opposite might be the case. Even if there is a mild recession, these are great long-term values. Stocks are almost to levels where earnings yields are above 6%, which equate to real returns going forward," Siegel wrote.
Persons: Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Jeremy Grantham, Bill Gross, Jeffrey Gundlach, Siegel, , Wall, MacroEdge Organizations: Service, DoubleLine, JPMorgan, Equity
Insider's climate advisory council convened recently for a roundtable discussion. They told us they're motivated by current innovation on the climate crisis, but labor is a hurdle. The advisory council is part of Insider's One Planet initiative, the optimist's destination for climate action. Sign up for our newsletter to get the latest on the culture & business of sustainability — delivered weekly to your inbox. Help wanted: skilled workersLabor is a hurdle for the green transition, said Donnel Baird, the founder and CEO of BlocPower.
Persons: Alyssa Gilbert, Ford, Cynthia Williams, Williams, It's, Donnel Baird, BlocPower, Baird, Omar Elmawi, He's, Elmawi, there's, we're, Elijah McKenzie, Jackson, McKenzie, We've Organizations: Service, Grantham Institute, Climate, Environment, Imperial College London, Ford Motor, EV, Labor, International Monetary Fund, Human Rights, Oil Locations: Europe, Kenya, Africa
New York CNN —Sheila Bair, who had a front row seat to the subprime mortgage meltdown, is worried today’s housing market is unsustainably hot. A housing bubble can form when prices rise to unsustainable levels. “I see much less speculation in the housing market today, thank goodness,” said Bair. ‘Dizzying heights’Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham shares Bair’s concern about a housing bubble. In many ways, today’s housing market is the polar opposite of the one that preceded the Great Recession.
Persons: Sheila Bair, ” Bair, Bair, , she’s, there’s, Jeremy Grantham, ” Grantham, Goldman Sachs, Fannie Mae, Priscilla Almodovar, it’s, ” Almodovar, Lawrence Yun, homebuyers shouldn’t, ” Yun, Yun, America doesn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, National Association of Realtors, CNN, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, NAR, , UBS Locations: New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, Richmond, Cincinnati, Zurich, Tokyo, Miami, Toronto, Vancouver, London, America,
There is no end in sight for high mortgage rates, and sellers are dropping prices. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe housing market is in an ugly place right now for buyers and while things may be stabilizing, that just means pressure will likely shift from buyers to sellers. Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman made headlines in recent weeks with several interviews where he said the housing market had hit "rock bottom." "The housing market is just taking a beating because affordability is at a four-decade low. While the market might not get worse for buyers, sellers are not yet at rock bottom after enjoying years of rising home values.
Persons: , Glenn Kelman, Kelman, ZIlloq, Paul Bradbury, Zillow, Jeff Tucker, Redfin, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Luis M, Alvarez, Tom Barkin, Alou Diarra, Getty Organizations: Service, CNBC, Getty, Cleveland Fed, Altos Research, Rosenberg Research, North, AP, Richmond, Fed Locations: North American
The elite investor sees house prices falling and predicts a recession will strike next year. AdvertisementAdvertisementJeremy Grantham floated the possibility of a 50% crash in the S&P 500, predicted US house prices would drop, and rang the recession alarm during the latest episode of Bloomberg's "Merryn Talks Money" podcast. They're vulnerable on the debt front, vulnerable on the financial front, and vulnerable on a broad economic front." "An over 40-year period of driving down mortgage rates, of course you drove up house prices all over the world, pretty much. "House prices are worse for the ordinary household.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, , Merryn, bitcoin, It's, Russell, overpricing, it's, They've Organizations: Service, Commodities
The S&P 500 will likely plunge by 30%, and could be cut in half, Jeremy Grantham says. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe S&P 500 is likely to crash by 30%, and could nosedive by over 50%, Jeremy Grantham has warned. He also predicted that US house prices will slump and a recession will strike next year, and dismissed bitcoin as a con. AdvertisementAdvertisement"My guess is we will have a recession," Grantham said. The steeper mortgage rates will "drive down" house prices, Grantham said.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, bitcoin, , Merryn, who's, he's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia —, Consumers, Federal Reserve Locations: Grantham
CNN —The Northern Hemisphere may be transitioning into fall, but there has been no let up from extreme heat. New data shows last month was the hottest September – the fourth consecutive month of such unprecedented heat – putting 2023 firmly on track to be the hottest year in recorded history. That’s well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold to which countries aim to limit global warming under the Paris Climate Agreement. The extreme September “has pushed 2023 into the dubious honor of first place – on track to be the warmest year and around 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial average temperatures,” Burgess said. The significant margin by which heat records are being broken matters, she told CNN.
Persons: Copernicus, , Samantha Burgess, Paulo Amorim, Zeke Hausfather, Maximiliano Herrera, ” Herrera, Chris Ratcliffe, ” Burgess, El Niño, Friederike Otto, ” Otto Organizations: CNN, Bloomberg, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Grantham Institute, Climate, , United Locations: Paris, Libya, Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey, Canada, South America, York, Brazil, Spain, Poland, Austria, France, Europe, London, Dubai, United Nations, COP28
The US economy is showing signs of resilience, including from the labor market and consumer spending. The labor market has remained robust, steady economic growth is still there, and consumers have yet to buckle. "I think there's still risks gradually accumulating in the economy," Kimbrough said. AdvertisementAdvertisementConsumer and labor market risks loomA number of factors pose as headwinds for consumers, in the chief economist's view. Gregory Daco, EY's chief economist, also recently warned that there are headwinds impacting consumers, forcing them to perhaps cut back on spending.
Persons: isn't, , Jeremy Grantham, Jamie Dimon, Karin Kimbrough, LinkedIn's, it's, Kimbrough, they've, Gregory Daco, Daco Organizations: Service, Chicago Fed, BlackRock, Labor, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center, Microeconomic
The hikes scared investors into thinking a recession would be on the way. But today, the labor market remains strong and inflation is under 4%, prompting rosier outlooks about the fate of the US economy. Rate hikes take time to work their way into the economy. But their main adversary going forward is going to be the Fed, with inflation still elevated. The Consumer Price Index is at 3.7% year-over-year, and core inflation, which the Fed watches closely, is even higher at 4.3%.
Persons: Michael Pento, Piper Sandler, Pento, Louis, LEI, Greg Boutle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Jeremy Grantham, Merrill Lynch, Gary Shilling, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Conference, Stock, Robeco, Nasdaq, BNP, Fed
US home prices have shrugged off the surge in mortgage rates over the past 18 months. Homeowners don't want to sell and lose their cheap mortgages, while buyers don't want to overpay. Barbara Corcoran, Jeremy Grantham, and other experts are split on whether prices will soar or sink. The upshot has been mortgage rates doubling to over 7%, sparking an affordability crisis. Jeremy Grantham, Barbara Corcoran, David Rosenberg, and other experts have shared drastically different outlooks for home prices.
Persons: Barbara Corcoran, Jeremy Grantham, , overpay, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service
U.S.-based Atlas said it has come up with a way to treat a type of nickel ore usually used as an ingredient in stainless steel into a form that can be used for EV batteries with low emissions and no waste. Atlas came up with new technology to process saprolite nickel ores, which account for about a third of global nickel resources, into mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) for batteries, Ley added. The new processing technology uses hydrochloric acid and caustic soda to leach the ore, but does not need high pressure or high temperatures and does not result in waste products. Some processing plants have been launched in Indonesia using high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) to treat a similar type of nickel ore into MHP for batteries, but that technology produces toxic waste. The money will be used for engineering and design work for the pilot plant but further funding will be needed to actually build it, he added.
Persons: Jeremy Ley, Ley, Eric Onstad, Sharon Singleton Organizations: EV, North America LONDON, Reuters . Atlas, portland, Investors, Grantham Environmental Trust, Voyager Ventures, Thomson Locations: North America, Canada, United States, New Caledonia, Indonesia, Grantham
There were 68 active fund launches in the third quarter as of Sept. 22, compared to 49 indexed fund launches, according to CFRA. Passive funds still make up the majority of the ETF market, and they typically cost less than active products. JEPI, the biggest active ETF, has underperformed the S & P 500 this year but is still attracting new cash. "One of the problems with straightforward active funds, and we do run some straightforward active funds, is that very often ... you are tethered to that broad index, whatever happens to be in that. Abbott's firm launched five new active funds last week, including the Matthews Japan Active ETF (JPAN) .
Persons: Rachel Aguirre, Euan Munro, BNY Mellon, Cooper Abbott, Stephanie Pierce, Dreyfus, Jeremy Grantham's, Abbott Organizations: BlackRock, CNBC, JPMorgan —, Nasdaq, Newton Asset Management, BNY, Matthews Asia, Matthews Japan Active, SEC, Mellon & Exchange, BNY Mellon Investment Management Locations: BALI, BlackRock
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham warned that home prices are doomed to fall amid high mortgage rates. What the stock market loves"It loves low inflation. The crucial ingredient to a stock market bubble"The surge that took place in late 2020 finally had the characteristics that have been missing for 10 years. [NFTs], meme-stocks, QuantumScape is the biggest scale of any bubble in [stock market] history." That's the biggest bubble I think in history, including the South Sea bubble."
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Tesla's Elon Musk, Elon Musk's salesmanship, Grantham, Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, I've Organizations: Service, Elon, Ritholtz, Stock Locations: Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Shanghai, Sydney, Adelaide, Canada, London, Toronto, Boston, Japan, Manhattan, Downtown Manhattan, Tokyo
U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks to the media during his visit to Shell St Fergus Gas Plant in Peterhead on July 31, 2023 in Aberdeenshire, Scotland. LONDON — U.K.-based industry bodies and automakers on Wednesday criticized British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, amid reports that he is preparing to dilute several key net-zero climate pledges. A press representative for the prime minister's office declined to comment on the BBC report. However, interior minister Suella Braverman on Wednesday insisted in broadcast comments that the prime minister's approach to green policies was "pragmatic." On the long term, weakening the UK climate policies "could hurt economic growth by undermining domestic and overseas investment in a range of sectors that are developing and deploying clean technologies, such as heat pumps and electric vehicles.
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Lisa Brankin, Brankin, Mike Hawes, Chris Skidmore, Suella Braverman, Bob Ward, Chris Hewett Organizations: Shell St Fergus Gas Plant, LONDON, British, BBC, Ford, Society of Motor Manufacturers, Traders, Ministers, Conservative Party, Labour, Grantham Research, Solar Energy Locations: Shell, Peterhead, Aberdeenshire, Scotland, Britain, Grantham, U.S, China, EU, India
Two of the three core inflation measures also rose. The annual rate, the highest since the 4.4% reported in April, is double the Bank of Canada's 2% target. "Underlying inflation is still well above the level that would be consistent with achieving our target of 2% CPI inflation," she said. Money markets raised bets for a rate hike in October after the data, seeing a 42% chance of an increase after the price figures compared with 23% before. However, another inflation report and a bevy of other data are due out before the Canadian central bank next meets on Oct 25 to set the key overnight rate.
Persons: Derek Holt, Holt, Sharon Kozicki, Jimmy Jean, Justin Trudeau's, Andrew Grantham, David Ljunggren, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Divya Rajogopal, Paul Simao, Mark Porter Organizations: Reuters, Statistics, Bank of Canada's, Scotiabank, Bank of, Bank of Canada, Canadian, Desjardins Group, CIBC Capital Markets, Tiff, Thomson Locations: OTTAWA, Statistics Canada, Canadian
The World Weather Attribution initiative – a team of scientists that analyze the role of climate change in the aftermath of extreme weather events – found planet-warming pollution made the deadly rainfall in Libya up to 50 times more likely to occur and 50% worse. They also found the extreme rainfall that hit Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria was made up to 10 times more likely. Extreme rainfall has swept across large parts of the Mediterranean region since the start of the month. They found in Libya, not only did climate change make the extreme rainfall up to 50 times more likely, it also made it up to 50% more intense. The kind of extreme rainfall this region experienced is likely to happen around once every 10 years, according to the report.
Persons: Storm Daniel, Palamas, Angelos Tzortzinis, Konstantinos Tsakalidis, Zohra Bensemra, Maja Vahlberg, ” Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, , Jasper Knight Organizations: CNN, Getty, WWA, Reuters, Climate, Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Leipzig University, University of Locations: Libya, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Spain, Karditsa, AFP, Larissa, Derna, Germany, Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
Jeremy Grantham issued grim warnings about the US stock market and economy this week. Grantham touched on meme stocks, banking risks, real estate, commodities, and Elon Musk's Tesla. GMO's cofounder and long-term investment strategist also reflected on his inadvertent investment in a meme stock, advised against buying real estate or commodities, and touted Elon Musk's Tesla and other companies fighting climate change. "I would be very careful with real estate. So I wouldn't touch real estate."
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, Elon Musk's Tesla, There's, it's, dopey VWs, they've Organizations: Service, Livewire Markets, General Motors, Panasonic, dopey, Grantham Locations: Wall, Silicon, Sydney, craziness, Grantham
Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.
Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says she's "feeling very good" about chances of a US soft landing. "I think you'd have to say we're on a path that looks exactly like that," she said, per Bloomberg. Yellen joins Paul Krugman and Larry Summers in suggesting the US will avoid a recession. "I am feeling very good about that prediction," Yellen said on her way home from the G20 summit held in New Delhi, per Bloomberg. "I think you'd have to say we're on a path that looks exactly like that," she said, referring to hopes of a soft landing.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Paul Krugman, Larry Summers, It's, Paul Krugman —, , David Rosenberg, Leon Cooperman, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, New Delhi
Paqui, a company under Hershey, pulled its One Chip Challenge following a teen's death. One Chip Challenge packaging warned children not to eat, but is spicy food really that dangerous? Paqui's One Chip Challenge tortilla chips are almost black in color and comes in a lime green wrapper. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhile the autopsy results for 10th-grader Harris Wolobah are still pending, the teen's family alleges that the One Chip Challenge is responsible for his Sept. 1 death. The container warns consumers to not give the chip to children, but due to One Chip Challenge's popularity, many teens ate the chips anyway, leading to hospitalizations in some cases.
Persons: Steve LeBlanc, , Florida International University Elisa Trucco, Trucco, Alexander DePaoli, Gregory Foster, DePaoli, Harris Wolobah, Paqui, Wilder, it's Organizations: Hershey, Service, Florida International University, Northeastern University, Buffalo Wild Wings, Guinness, Records, Paqui, Foods, Associated Press, AP Locations: Wall, Silicon, Massachusetts, Las Vegas, Chile, San Diego , California
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