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☆ The case for investing in China's reopening is strong. Here's how to proceed with caution
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

Strategists see China's markets easily scoring double-digit gains this year. The case for investing outside the U.S. is strong, particularly with the dollar coming off its highs and looking at further downside. "While China's reopening is undoubtedly a turning point, there remain reasons to be cautious," wrote Barclays equity strategists. But still the prospects for China's economy are much brighter than they were just several months ago. The Covid lockdown has been so damaging to the Chinese economy, they want to get back to a growth path in 2023."

☆ Stocks are approaching a key bear market level heading into Thursday's inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The market continues to migrate back toward riskier assets, with the consensus entering 2023 in a defensive posture and ill-prepared for a benign tilt toward inflation data or reassuring signals on corporate results. Media and busted hypergrowth stocks abound on the year-to-date winners list, and this is probably why. It's the market's job to look ahead to handicap a potential inflection point no matter what the Fed is saying. VIX pretty subdued near 21, not exactly clenched up in fear ahead of key data, though probably will drain lower after CPI and ahead of a three-day weekend.

☆ Burton Malkiel on why his classic investment book, 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street,' is relevant 50 years later
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

You recommended index funds 50 years ago even before index funds existed. Standard & Poor's publishes annual reports showing how actively managed funds compare with index funds. Random Walk means that the history of past stock market prices cannot be used to predict the future. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), most of which are tied to index funds, are continuing to rake in money. This suggests that returns over the next decade are likely to be below the 9%-10% long-run historical stock market returns.

☆ Top media analyst from Bank of America names the best value stock in the sector
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Warner Bros. Discovery is the best value stock in the media and entertainment sector, according to Bank of America. That implies that Warner Bros. Discovery has made a tremendous amount of operational and strategic changes since April, wrote analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich. Warner Bros.

☆ Reaction to China relaxing COVID restrictions in major policy shift
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REDMOND WONG, GREATER CHINA MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, HONG KONG"The 10 new measures are underwhelming, given the high expectations. GARY NG, ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG"The latest announcements show China is determined to speed up its reopening due to economic pressure. It is likely to see upswings cyclically in business sentiment from suppressed demand, especially in sectors heavily affected by the covid restrictions. "The next checkpoint will be Chinese New Year; I think markets are looking for further relaxation to facilitate return to their hometowns by Chinese New Year." SAKTIANDI SUPAAT, REGIONAL HEAD OF FX RESEARCH & STRATEGY, MAYBANK, SINGAPORE"I think markets have, in some ways, priced in that element (of further easing).

☆ Cathie Wood expects a U.S. recession in 2023 that could help her fund’s performance
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

But, as the central bank's aggressive rate hikes start to slow the economy and potentially tip the U.S. into a recession, Wood expects the tide to turn for her fund. "Interest rates will follow inflation," she said during a CNBC Pro Talk on Monday. When sentiment gets very bleak, or it's clear that the economy is deteriorating, that's often when the Fed would pause interest rate hikes or even begin cutting them. Biggest recession factor right now In terms of a potential 2023 recession, the biggest factor Wood sees right now is the aggressive pace of interest rate hikes to cool off hot inflation. "Taking interest rates up 16-fold, we think is a mistake," said Wood.

☆ Morgan Stanley's Wilson says inflation is set to slide; warns of 'new era' ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson expects a "pretty steep decline in inflation" between now and the end of next year. But Wilson, who is also Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer, warned that "we're in a new era." "I don't think the Fed's ever going to zero again because … inflation now has arrived. It follow other calls that the era of cheap money is over , spelling tough times ahead for sectors such as tech. Inflation still 'stickier' for these 2 areas Wilson said there are still two areas where inflation could be "stickier:" energy and labor.

☆ UBS joins the emerging market bull run band
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Swiss bank UBS has joined a growing band of investment houses forecasting that emerging markets will see a bumper bounce next year after their torrid 2022. UBS' analysts published a note on Tuesday predicting 8-12% returns in emerging market equities in 2023 and a 2-3% rise in emerging currencies citing expectations for interest rate pressures to reduce and China easing its COVID containment restrictions in the second quarter of the year. They also project +10-15% returns in the mainly dollar-denominated emerging market hard currency debt indexes and +8-12% in big the local currency debt indexes. "As U.S. inflation further moderates and China cyclically recovers from Q2, we expect volatility to decline across EM assets," UBS said. Reporting by Marc Jones, editing by Karin StroheckerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Cambria investment chief and podcaster Meb Faber warns that stocks could crash much further, and explains his path to better and safer returns
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Meb Faber of Cambria Investments called a market downturn this year, and says it could get worse. Although Meb Faber foresaw the stock market meltdown this year, he says the worst may be yet to come. "I don't think stocks are going to crash 50%, but you at least have to hold that thought in your head," he told Insider in an interview. "The stock market in our opinion is still expensive." After a decade of leadership for tech and growth stocks, Faber says that higher interest rates might be pushing stocks into a new environment.

SEOUL, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Across South Korea, events such as autumn foliage festivals and K-Pop concerts are canceled, and grief-stricken communities are putting off gatherings after a Seoul crowd crush killed at least 154 people, threatening to crimp growth further. Universities have canceled weekend retreats known as MTs, and the opening event of the two-week Korea Sale Festa, the Korean version of the Black Friday, was called off. South Korea's southern resort island of Jeju called off the Jeju Olle Walking Festival, scheduled from Nov 3 to 5. The Korea Baseball Organization and Korea Volleyball Federation both said there won't be cheerleaders during its championship series. South Korea's economic growth already decelerated last quarter in response to slowing exports and a weakening currency.

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 47 million barrels of petroleum-related futures and options in the week to Oct. 11. Purchases came after OPEC+ announced on Oct. 5 the group would reduce its combined output target by 2 million barrels per day from November. There was also strong buying of middle distillates (+14 million barrels), including European gas oil (+7 million) and U.S. diesel (+6 million), but sales of U.S. gasoline (-3 million). The total position in mid-distillates has risen to 70 million barrels (58th percentile) from a low of 45 million (40th percentile) two weeks ago. Related columns:- Diesel's gloomy message for the global economy (Reuters, Oct. 14)- OPEC+ cut draws hedge funds back into the oil market (Reuters, Oct. 10)- Oil investors ready for recession (Reuters, Oct 3)- Hedge funds dump distillates as recession risks intensify (Reuters, Sept. 26)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Goldman Sachs favors Tesla and another big automaker even during an economic slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for electric car sales and believes Tesla and General Motors will benefit from the trend. The Inflation Reduction Act , signed by President Joe Biden in August, will benefit carmakers such as Tesla and GM with $7,500 worth of tax credits per car, according to Goldman. Goldman said it now expects Tesla to make 2.4 million cars worldwide in 2024, up from its previous forecast of 2.275 million. According to the report, the tax credits will also benefit GM and Ford , although only "slightly." Housing sales figures, which are also strongly correlated to vehicle sales, point toward a gloomy picture , according to Goldman.

☆ TCH exec talks FedNow, faster payment innovations, and digital growth
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

And that’s accelerated this year as payment systems like The Clearing House’s Real-Time Payment (RTP) network innovate and the Federal Reserve’s FedNow launch nears . Real-time payment innovations will help set a new standard for the US transaction system and speed up the transition away from cash. Insider Intelligence (II): How does RTP network pricing differ from other systems? II: What are the major real-time payment shifts or trends that you've seen in the last few years? And lastly, merchants want to get their money faster.

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