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☆ Goldman Sachs says buy this little-known real estate name with 20% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Real estate investment trust Safehold is trading at attractive levels, and investors need to scoop up the stock, according to Goldman Sachs. The company owns, acquires and originates ground leases, and has stable cash flows through fixed payments and contractual rent increases. Unlike its other real estate investment trust peers, Safehold's primary earnings metric is per-share earnings, rather than funds from operations per share. "The company originates ground leases at conservative 35-40% LTVs (versus the value of the land and the building). To be sure, Burrows noted that transactions and investment volumes have "slowed meaningfully" due to rising interest rates.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Caitlin Burrows, Burrows, Safehold, — CNBC's Michael Bloom

☆ S&P downgrades multiple US banks citing 'tough' operating conditions
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

S&P downgraded the ratings of Associated Banc-Corp (ASB.N) and Valley National Bancorp (VLY.O) on funding risks and a higher reliance on brokered deposits. It also downgraded UMB Financial Corp (UMBF.O), Comerica Bank (CMA.N) and Keycorp (KEY.N), citing large deposit outflows and prevailing higher interest rates. A sharp rise in interest rates is weighing on many U.S. banks' funding and liquidity, S&P said in a summarized note, adding that deposits held by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC)-insured banks will continue to decline as long as the Federal Reserve is "quantitatively tightening." The rating agency also downgraded the outlook of S&T Bank and River City Bank to negative from stable on high commercial real estate (CRE) exposure among other factors. Reporting by Gokul Pisharody in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Akanksha Khushi; Editing by Varun H KOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Moody's, Bank of New York Mellon BK.N, Gokul, Akanksha Khushi, Varun Organizations: Global, National Bancorp, UMB Financial Corp, Comerica Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Federal, T Bank, City Bank, Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, Truist, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Silicon, Bengaluru

☆ Moody's cuts ratings of 10 U.S. banks and puts some big names on downgrade watch
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Moody's cut the credit ratings of a host of small and mid-sized U.S. banks late Monday and placed several big Wall Street names on negative review. Moody's also changed its outlook to negative for 11 banks, including Capital One , Citizens Financial and Fifth Third Bancorp . Among the smaller lenders receiving an official ratings downgrade were M&T Bank , Pinnacle Financial , BOK Financial and Webster Financial . "Meanwhile, many banks' Q2 results showed growing profitability pressures that will reduce their ability to generate internal capital. Though the stress on U.S. banks has mostly been concentrated in funding and interest rate risk resulting from monetary policy tightening, Moody's warned that a worsening in asset quality is on the horizon.

Persons: Moody's, Cullen, Frost, Jill Cetina, Ana Arsov Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bank, New York Mellon, U.S . Bancorp, Truist, Frost Bankers, Northern Trust, Capital, Citizens Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, T Bank, Pinnacle Financial, BOK, Webster, Regional, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse, UBS, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, Regional U.S, Silicon, Europe, Swiss

☆ Fed policy is weighing on US banks. Here's everything to know about the Moody's downgrades.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In what amounted to 27 rating actions on US banks, Moody's pointed to rising costs of capital, deteriorating profits, and climbing risks to assets. In effect, much of the stress on banks Moody's is responding to can be chalked up to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions over the past year and a half. "Most banks' deposits were flat or down only modestly, but the mix worsened, with non-interest-bearing deposits declining and banks paying more for deposits," Moody's strategists wrote. So Moody's downgrades aren't all doom and gloom for these firms, and it's always possible the moves are reversed once the outlook turns rosier. Banks are in the money business, he explained, and the Fed has made money harder to come by.

Persons: Moody's, Service It's, they've, it's, Michael Bell, Honigman, Banks, Bell Organizations: Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, Service, Northern Trust, State Street, Capital, Citizens Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, Bank, KBW Nasdaq, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank, Reserve, Moody's, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon, Japan

☆ Investors are making the same mistake they made during the dot-com and housing bubbles, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are so excited about stocks that they're missing the bigger, grimmer economic picture. Danielle DiMartino Booth said the complacency reminded her of the dot-com and housing bubbles. She pointed to a surge in bankruptcies and mounting pressures in the bank and real estate sectors. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. DiMartino Booth has made it clear she's in the latter camp for now.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, We're, BNN, DiMartino Booth, Biden, Sam, Jeremy Siegel, Paul Krugman, David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, QI Research, BNN Bloomberg, Nasdaq, Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

The Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or SLOOS, also showed that banks expect to further tighten standards over the rest of 2023. Monday's SLOOS report - which Fed policymakers had in hand last week when they decided to deliver an 11th interest-rate hike after skipping one at their June meeting - suggests credit tightening is ongoing. For small firms, a net 49.2% of banks said credit terms were stiffer, versus 46.7% in the last survey. Smaller net shares of banks reported tightening standards for auto loans, though terms for credit cards did tighten somewhat. While still weak, demand for auto loans was the least soft in four quarters, while demand for credit card loans was essentially flat after two straight negative quarters.

Persons: Monday's, You've, you've, Jerome Powell, Daniel Silver, Ann Saphir, Nick Zieminski, Dan Burns, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Federal, Survey, Reuters, Thomson

☆ Lincoln National's CRE exposure targeted by two hedge funds
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - Two hedge funds have placed bets that bonds issued by life insurance company Lincoln National Corp (LNC.N) will fall or that its default risk will increase, due to their concerns about the company's commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. Lincoln declined to provide comments on the hedge funds' positions and referred to previous remarks by its management. Fitch Ratings' senior director Jamie Tucker said in an email to Reuters the agency considers Lincoln's CRE exposure modestly below-average compared with the industry, while the quality is materially stronger. In April, Boaz Weinstein, founder of New York-based Saba, said in a post the firm was holding some of Lincoln's credit default swap (CDS), and had already sold some of it. loadingLincoln's CDS spread, a measure of credit risk, is 238 basis points, compared with 323 when Saba disclosed the position, meaning the perceived risk has declined.

Persons: Ellen Cooper, David Meneret, Lincoln, Fitch, Moody's, Jamie Tucker, Boaz Weinstein, Saba, Tracy Benguigui, Carolina Mandl, Megan Davies, Anna Driver Organizations: YORK, Lincoln National Corp, Saba Capital, Moody's, Reuters, New, CDS, Partners, Citizens Inc, Barclays, LNC, Thomson Locations: CRE, Hill, Lincoln, Saba, New York

☆ Lincoln National's commercial real-estate exposure targeted by two hedge funds
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Lincoln declined to provide comments on the hedge funds' positions and referred to previous remarks by its management. Fitch Ratings' senior director Jamie Tucker said in an email to Reuters the agency considers Lincoln's CRE exposure modestly below-average compared with the industry, while the quality is materially stronger. In April, Boaz Weinstein, founder of New York-based Saba, said in a post the firm was holding some of Lincoln's credit default swap (CDS), and had already sold some of it. loadingLincoln's CDS spread, a measure of credit risk, is 238 basis points, compared with 323 when Saba disclosed the position, meaning the perceived risk has declined. Among seven listed life insurers tracked by Barclays, Lincoln was the only one which ended the first quarter below its capital target.

☆ US banks' second quarter earnings: the results in charts
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Manya Saini | Thomson Reuters | Manya Saini Reports On Prominent Publicly Listed U.S. Financial Firms Including Wall Street S Biggest Banks | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The results follow a tumultuous first quarter in which Silicon Valley Bank and two other lenders failed. Signs of a revival in the investment banking sector, as higher rates and economic uncertainty have hampered deals and trading, also drove share gains. The upbeat results sparked a rally in bank stocks with the S&P 500 Banks Index (.SPXBK) gaining 9.3% and the KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) rising 13.7% month-to-date. Here are three charts on mid-sized banks' second-quarter results:DEPOSIT LEVELSReuters GraphicsWhile regional bank earnings in recent days have reassured investors that the crisis has subsided, regional banks are being squeezed as they pay customers more to retain their deposits. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) has rallied 13.7% month-to-date but remains down 13.6% so far this year.

Persons: Banks, Manya Saini, Michelle Price, Barbara Lewis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Bank, Banks, Federal, Reuters Graphics, Bank of America, Graphics, Graphics Bank, Thomson Locations: Silicon, KBW, Bengaluru

☆ Factbox: U.S. banks increase reserves for commercial real estate exposure
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

While regional banks carry the greatest exposure to the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, second quarter earnings show that a number of big banks have prepared for potential defaults, primarily on office loans. However, Borthwick noted the bank's office CRE exposure was low relative to its overall loan portfolio, at 2%. CRE loans represented just 15% of the bank's overall lending book, while only 1% of the CRE loan portfolio was office-related. WELLS FARGO (WFC.N)The bank said it had a $949 million increase in its allowance for credit losses, primarily CRE office loans. WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP (WBS.N)The regional bank's nonperforming CRE loans ticked up to $47.9 million last quarter from $35.8 million in the first quarter.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Andrew Kelly, Alastair Borthwick, Borthwick, GOLDMAN SACHS, markdowns, Denis Coleman, Jeremy Barnum, WELLS, Charlie Scharf, Bruce Van Saun, Dominic Ng, East, James Leonard, MORGAN STANLEY, Webster, Glenn MacInnes, John Ciulla, Matt Tracy, Michelle Price, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, AMERICA CORP, GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC, Goldman, JPMORGAN CHASE &, JPMorgan, Citizens, EAST WEST BANCORP, East, BANCORP, WEBSTER FINANCIAL, Thomson Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, California, CRE

☆ France to raise regulated household electricity prices by 10% from August
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PARIS, July 18 (Reuters) - The French government has decided to raise regulated household electricity prices by 10% starting from August, a government official said on Tuesday, confirming a report from newspaper Les Echos. The 10% increase is much lower than the one proposed by the French Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), which - based on current market prices - recommended an increase of 74.5%. In May, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said France's cap on electricity prices would be phased out and end at the end of next year. European electricity prices soared last year, mainly driven by the fallout from the war in Ukraine. France also saw record-low nuclear output as state-owned utility EDF (EDF.PA) repairs reactors affected by stress corrosion.

Persons: Les, ”, Bruno Le Maire, France's, Benjamin Mallet, Tassilo Hummel, Charlotte Van Campenhout, Jason Neely Organizations: French Energy Regulatory Commission, Finance, EDF, Thomson Locations: Europe, Ukraine, France

☆ Commercial real estate lending fell for the first time in 2 years last month as credit conditions tighten
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Commercial real estate lending fell for the first time in two years last month amid tight credit conditionsDebt on commercial property fell to $5.44 trillion in June, driven by a large drop in multifamily lending. Outstanding commercial real estate debt dropped to $5.44 trillion in June, marking the first drop in commercial real estate lending recorded in two years, according to Refinitiv data cited by Capital Economics. Multifamily property debt fell by $21.6 billion last month, the research firm said. Still, commercial property debt saw sluggish growth in June, increasing by just $7.4 billion last month. Commercial real estate prices could plunge as much as 40% from their peak, Morgan Stanley previously estimated, which would mark an even more severe crash than what was seen in the 2008 financial crisis.

Persons: That's, Charlie Cornes, Banks, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Capital Locations: Wall, Silicon

July 14 (Reuters) - Wells Fargo (WFC.N) raised its annual forecast for net interest income (NII) after its profit surged 57% in the second quarter, sending its shares modestly higher. Wells Fargo reported profit of $1.25 per share for the three months ended June 30, beating analysts' average estimate of $1.16 per share, according to Refinitiv data. Shares of Wells Fargo rose 1% to $44.17 in midday trading. Wells Fargo is still operating under an asset cap that prevents it from growing until regulators deem that it has fixed problems from a fake accounts scandal. In January, Wells Fargo said it will slim down its home lending business by reducing its mortgage servicing portfolio and exiting the correspondent lending business.

Persons: Wells, NII, Charlie Scharf, CRE, Michael Santomassimo, Wells Fargo, Scharf, We're, JPMorgan Chase, Noor Zainab Hussain, Manya, Saeed Azhar, Lananh Nguyen, Arun Koyyur Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Wells, U.S . Consumer Financial, JPMorgan, First, Bank, Manya Saini, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Bengaluru, New York

July 14 (Reuters) - Wells Fargo (WFC.N) raised its annual forecast for net interest income (NII) after its profit surged 57% in the second quarter, sending shares up 4% in premarket trading. NII climbed 29% to $13.16 billion, benefiting from higher interest rates as Wells Fargo and other banks raised their borrowing costs following a series of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to tame inflation. Wells Fargo reported profit of $1.25 per share for the three months ended June 30, beating analysts' average estimate of $1.16 per share, according to Refinitiv data. REAL ESTATE WOESThe provision for credit losses included a $949 million increase in the allowance for potential losses in commercial real estate (CRE) office loans, as well as for higher credit card loan balances. Wells Fargo is still operating under an asset cap that prevents it from growing until regulators deem that it has fixed problems from a fake accounts scandal.

Persons: Wells, NII, Charlie Scharf, CRE, Michael Santomassimo, Wells Fargo, Scharf, JPMorgan Chase, Noor Zainab Hussain, Manya, Saeed Azhar, Lananh Nguyen, Arun Koyyur Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Wells, JPMorgan, First, Bank, Manya Saini, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Bengaluru, New York

☆ U.S. banks point to resilient but slowing economy, flag risks ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. consumers still have a healthy balance sheet, the banks said, but warned spending was slowing and there had been a modest deterioration in some consumer debt. "The U.S. economy continues to be resilient," JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said. Investors have worried that high interest rates could push the economy into a recession, but the outlook remains uncertain. Wells CEO Charlie Scharf said the range of scenarios for the economy should narrow over the next few quarters. For now, the economy is performing better than many expected but will likely continue slowing.

Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo WFC.N, Wells, Jamie Dimon, Jeremy Barnum, Charlie Scharf, Larry Fink, Wells Fargo, Scharf, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Niket Nishant, Noor Zainab Hussain, Mehnaz Yasmin, Manya, Nupur Anand, Saeed Azhar, Megan Davies, Paritosh Bansal, Nick Zieminski Organizations: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Citi, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Wells, Bank of America, Manya Saini, Thomson Locations: Wells, U.S, Bengaluru, New York

☆ JPMorgan, Wells Fargo prepare for losses on office loans
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

July 14 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) said on Friday they set aside more money for expected losses from commercial real estate loans, in the latest sign that stress is building up in the sector. Wells Fargo reported higher losses in CRE due to its office loan portfolio. "While we haven't seen significant losses in our office portfolio to-date, we are reserving for the weakness that we expect to play out in the market over time," Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said. The bank, which acquired First Republic Bank in May, reported $1.1 billion in credit loss provisions driven by its office portfolio. Some $20 billion of office commercial mortgage-backed securities, which bundle together individual loans, mature in 2023, according to real estate data provider Trepp.

Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Jeremy Barnum, Matt Tracy, Michelle Price, Lananh Nguyen, Nick Zieminski Organizations: JPMorgan, Republic Bank, U.S, Federal, Regulators, McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey, Thomson Locations: Wells, CRE, U.S

☆ A look at the state of US bank credit as earnings season begins
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Bank credit growth began slowing in the second half of last year and has slowed further since the SVB failure, although that deceleration has not been uniform. Meanwhile, here's a look at the current state of the bank credit scene, according to data published each week by the Fed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsCONSUMER CREDITThe Fed splits this category into three tranches: credit cards, auto loans and all other consumer loans. Bank credit card lending is the largest of the three at nearly $1 trillion, a record. Both CRE and residential real estate loans are still rising year over year, but at a much slower pace.

Persons: Banks, Safiyah Riddle, Dan Burns, Anna Driver Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Federal, Fed, Securities, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon, Bank

In recent weeks, banks have stepped up efforts to prevent such losses, according to commercial real estate (CRE) analysts and industry data. The 23 largest U.S. banks held 20% of office and downtown retail CRE loans, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Small banks also have high exposure to CRE loans as a percentage of their assets. About $2.1 billion of office loans pooled in CMBS matured in May, almost double the total amount from January through April, for example. If borrowers agreed to loan extensions, some $10.8 billion of office loans maturing this year would be pushed to later years, Moody's said.

Persons: Shaishav Agarwal, Agarwal, Steve Jellinek, Moody's, Kevin Fagan, Fagan, ” Fagan, Eliasaf, ”, Banks, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Matt Tracy, Paritosh Bansal, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal, Manhattan, Northwind, Thomson Locations: York

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File PhotoNEW YORK, July 11 (Reuters) - Wall Street banks are expected to report higher profits for the second quarter as rising interest payments offset a downturn in dealmaking. Results for investment banking behemoths will also weaken, with EPS forecast to drop almost 59% at Goldman Sachs (GS.N). That offsets the doldrums in investment banking, where revenues have been depressed by rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. Reuters GraphicsBanking executives have also lowered expectations for the second quarter after mergers, acquisitions and debt offerings plunged in recent months. "We see higher credit risk ahead for lower to middle class families with higher credit card debt that cannot keep pace with higher living costs," Leon added.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley's, David Konrad, Keefe, Goldman, Stephen Biggar, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, Kenneth Leon, Leon, Konrad, Nupur Anand, Saeed Azhar, Niket, Lananh Nguyen, Marguerita Choy, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank of America, REUTERS, JPMorgan, . Bank of America's, Citigroup, Universal, Argus Research, JPMorgan Chase, Reuters Graphics Banking, Federal Reserve, CFRA Research, Investors, Thomson Locations: Washington, Wells, Refinitiv, Wells Fargo, U.S, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Factbox: Five things to watch out for in US bank earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

An S&P index of U.S. bank stocks has fallen more than 9% this year as investors fret about the effect of high interest rates and a looming downturn. Here are five trends to watch this season:COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE (CRE)Investors will scrutinize disclosures on banks' CRE exposure, particularly on office loans. CRE has come under pressure from rising interest rates and the proliferation of remote working that emptied out many office buildings. Big U.S. banks' CRE portfolios put in a surprisingly good performance during the Federal Reserve's annual health checks, with losses declining slightly versus last year, the central bank said last month. To lure customers, banks will face pressure to pay higher rates on deposits, which would erode their profits, analysts have said.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Segar, CRE, Goldman Sachs, Niket, Lananh Nguyen Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City, Big U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Can AI save commercial real estate in San Francisco?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In an aerial view, cars drive by the San Francisco skyline as they cross the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge on October 27, 2022 in San Francisco, California. Alexander Quinn, senior director of research at commercial real estate company JLL, said his firm sees bright spots in San Francisco’s commercial real estate market as AI companies drive office leasing demand. A shopper exits the Westfield San Francisco Centre shopping mall in San Francisco, California, US, on Tuesday, June 13, 2023. The US Census Bureau reports an estimated 35% of employees in San Francisco and San Jose continue to work from home. “I think the crash is coming, and it hasn’t happened yet,” he added, referring to commercial real estate prices.

Persons: Naveen Rao, CBRE, Justin Sullivan, it’s, ” Rao, San, Alexander Quinn, JLL, ” Quinn, Rao, OpenAI, ”, “ There’s, MosaicML, Quinn, “, Francisco’s, David Paul Morris, Henrique Dubugras, ” Michael Tannenbaum, Tannenbaum, Hans Hansson Organizations: CNN, San, Westfield, San Francisco Centre, Westfield San Francisco, Bloomberg, Getty, London, US, “ Locations: San Francisco, Southern California, Francisco, Oakland, San Francisco , California, ”, “ San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, city’s, San Francisco’s Union, Coresight, Westfield San Francisco Centre, California, Francisco’s, San Jose, decamping, United States

☆ The Fed's own economists don't know if the US will escape a recession or not. They say it's basically a coin toss.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's own economists aren't sure if the US economy will suffer a recession or not. They believe it's a virtual coin toss whether there's a mild downturn or none at all. Even the Federal Reserve's own economists say it's basically a coin toss, the minutes from the Fed's June meeting show. The central bank's staff predicted that banks would keep pulling back on lending, tightening financial conditions and causing real gross domestic product (GDP) to decline modestly for the next two quarters. They also tend to damp demand, lift unemployment, and pull down asset prices, increasing the risk of a recession.

Persons: —, it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Fed Locations: Silicon

☆ US commercial real estate probably won't recover from crisis until 2040, thanks to out-of-fashion office buildings, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US commercial real-estate values aren't likely to recover until 2040, according to Capital Economics' deputy chief property economist. Kiran Raichura said office values are unlikely to rebound to their peaks until 2040 thanks to the strengthening work-from-home trend, and high interest rates. The commercial real estate (CRE) industry has been under stress since the US regional-banking sector faced a bout of turmoil earlier this year. Columbia Business School professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh recently warned that the pain is just beginning for commercial real estate – and tumbling prices could fire up the banking crisis again and hurt the US economy. Furthermore, rising distressed commercial real-estate assets is adding to concerns a crisis may be brewing in the sector.

Persons: we've, Kiran Raichura, —, Raichura, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Columbia Business School

☆ The pain is just starting for commercial real estate - and plunging prices could reignite the banking crisis and choke the US economy, Columbia professor says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Columbia professor has issued a bleak outlook for commercial real estate in the US. Office values are plunging and threaten to cause an "urban doom loop," Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh said. If cities become more expensive and less appealing, people are likely to move out, cutting real estate values even more and causing a downward spiral, he said. Pension funds, real estate investment trusts (REITS), and other entities have invested significant sums in CRE, and the office segment specifically. "I do worry that there is potential for a spillover here, that we haven't seen the end of the banking crisis yet," Van Nieuwerburgh said.

Persons: Van Nieuwerburgh, —, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh Organizations: Service, Columbia Business School, Bank, Signature Bank Locations: Columbia, CRE, Silicon

☆ Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Micron, Netflix, Amazon, Disney, TJX, Pfizer and more
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Goldman Sachs reiterates Micron as buy Goldman said it's standing by its buy rating on the chipmaker after its earnings report Wednesday. JPMorgan reiterates Amazon as overweight JPMorgan said it's bullish heading into Amazon Prime Day in July. Bank of America reiterates Nvidia as buy Bank of America said it sees "AI networking upside" after a meeting with company management. Piper Sandler initiates TJX Companies as overweight Piper said the discount retailer is a top idea for the second half. Deutsche Bank reiterates Pentair as buy Deutsche Bank said Pentair is more than just a pool company.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Freyr, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, China —, it's, Collette Kress, Networking Gilad Shainer, NVDA, OSK, Piper Sandler, Piper, KeyBanc, Pentair, Oppenheimer Organizations: Micron, Cyberspace Administration, JPMorgan, Amazon, " Bank of America, Nvidia, Bank of America, Networking, TAM, JPMorgan downgrades, Citizens, 2Q, Citi, Netflix Citi, Netflix, UBS, Warner Music, Deutsche Bank, Oshkosh Deutsche Bank, TJX Companies, DIS, Suisse, Pfizer, Credit Suisse, pharma, Spotify, FV Locations: China, 3Q22

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