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☆ China may 'miss the 5%' growth target this year as downside risks spread
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Greg Baker | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Without more stimulus, China is increasingly likely to miss its growth target of around 5% this year, economists said. "In such a case, economic momentum may stay subdued in the rest of the year and China may miss this year's growth target of around 5%," she said. China is the world's second-largest economy, and accounted for nearly 18% of global GDP in 2022, according to World Bank data. "We also see bigger downside risk to our 4.9% y-o-y growth forecast for both Q3 and Q4, and it is increasingly possible that annual GDP growth this year will miss the 5.0% mark," the report said. Growth vs. national securityChinese authorities' initial crackdown on real estate developers in 2020 was an attempt to curb their high reliance on growth.

Persons: Greg Baker, Tao Wang, spender, Nomura Ting Lu, Ting Lu, haven't, Louise Loo, Loo, that's, Xiangrong Yu, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Wildau Organizations: Afp, Getty, UBS Investment Bank, Bank, China, People's Bank of, Oxford Economics, Zhongrong International Trust, Information, Beijing, CNBC, Baoshang Bank, Anbang Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, China, Asia, People's Bank of China

☆ Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan told leaders of its charity to 'clarify' their work. The result was layoffs, a plan to invest in AI, and a tacit admission their big education project failed.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-12 | by ( Kali Hays | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The organization will no longer be granting money toward educational policy, a big part of CZI's work since its founding, the emails said. As part of its "refreshed strategy," CZI said it is "transitioning" how it supports Summit Learning. The new strategy, laid out to CZI's roughly 500 employees, is to find new education products. Politics was one of its founding areas of work, alongside education and the eradication of all disease. "I give it two more years," one of the people familiar said of CZI's current education work.

Persons: Zuckerberg, Chan, Mark Zuckerberg, Priscilla Chan, Chan Zuckerberg, CZI, Sandra Liu Huang Organizations: Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Meta, Facebook, Summit, Summit Public Schools, National Education Policy Center, University of Colorado Locations: CZI, California, Washington, Boulder

☆ Fed doves, Fed hawks: a look at how U.S. central bankers fly
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The following graphic offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers have been driving up borrowing costs since March 2022 to bring down high inflation, and in July they increased the target policy rate range to 5.25%-5.5%. Longtime banker Jeff Schmid starts as Kansas City Fed president Aug. 21, and will be a voter in 2025. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a vocal policy hawk, left the Fed in July for a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter. Reporting Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S. Derby and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jeff Schmid, Louis, James Bullard, Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Open, New York Fed, Kansas City Fed, Louis Fed, Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Kansas, St

☆ Gold gets a safety boost as Fitch U.S. downgrade shakes markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bars of gold are seen at the Krastsvetmet company, one of the world's largest producers of precious metals in Moscow, Russia on January 31, 2023. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,946.97 per ounce by 0312 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,984. Gold, which is priced in dollars, is a favored safe-haven investment in times of stress and economic uncertainty. Higher interest rates raise the cost of holding gold, which yields nothing and needs money to store and insure. In other metals, spot silver eased 0.2% to $24.29, platinum dropped 0.5% to $926.18, and palladium was down 0.1% at $1,238.59.

Persons: Gold, Fitch, Edward Meir Organizations: U.S ., United States, AAA, AA, Marex, U.S Locations: Moscow, Russia, U.S

☆ The strange, improbable rise of Mark Zuckerberg 3.0
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Kali Hays | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +27 min

In early July, Mark Zuckerberg unveiled the latest and perhaps most consequential product in Meta's history: a new model of Mark Zuckerberg. Silicon Valley Zuck was a husband and father with a legacy to build and protect at all costs. Silicon Valley Zuck was suddenly faced with something he'd never dealt with before, shrinking revenue. Still clinging to his persona as Silicon Valley Zuck, Zuckerberg engaged in an all-out media blitz to hawk his vision for the metaverse. They were the sort of people Harvard Zuck would have scoffed at and Silicon Valley Zuck would have gently ignored.

Persons: Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Joe Rogan, Zuckerberg, Clark Kent, TikTok, Sheryl Sandberg, Mike Schroepfer, Wall, McKinsey Zuck, Rogan, Meta, Harvard Zuck, —, Priscilla Chan, Ray's, pullover, Harvard Zuck —, Dianna, Mick, McDougall, Paul Sakuma, Zuckerberg's, Apple, Facebook, he'd, That's, Frances Haugen, Chris Cox, Zuck, Zach Gibson, Meta's, Sandberg, Marne Levine, who'd, Javier Olivan, he's, bode, Bain, Maher Saba, Lori Goler, He's, He'd, Katie Harbath, it's, Andrew Bosworth, Bosworth, Mark Zuckerberg McKinsey Zuck, Mark Shmulik, Bernstein, Augustus, Julius Caesar, Kali Hays Organizations: Meta, Menlo, Harvard, Apple, McKinsey, Business, Facebook, Cambridge, Capitol, Labs, Menlo Park, Q, Bain & Company, Reality Labs, Wall, Mark Zuckerberg McKinsey, Phillips Exeter Academy, Tech, Twitter Locations: California, Hawaii, United States, Davos, Silicon, contrition, Meta, verbiage, Harvard, Rome

☆ Joe Biden tasks a new team with trying to stop a debt-ceiling standoff ever happening again
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

President Joe Biden will create a team tasked with preventing future debt-ceiling standoffs. Biden and Kevin McCarthy reached an 11th-hour deal to prevent a catastrophic default in late May. The White House said it wants to stop politicians “holding hostage the full faith and credit” of the US. The group is largely made up of Biden administration officials including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Attorney General Merrick Garland, the publication reported. The government currently has a self-imposed borrowing limit, which Biden suspended until January 2025 when he signed the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 back in June.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Janet Yellen, General Merrick Garland Organizations: Service, White, Bloomberg, Progressive, Democrats Locations: Wall, Silicon, United States

☆ Airline cargo revenue is cratering. Here's why that's actually good news
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Leslie Josephs | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Leslie Josephs/CNBCAirlines' cargo revenue is slumping. Delta , United and American this month each reported year-over-year declines of about 40% in their second-quarter cargo revenue. That's a significantly smaller portion than 2020, when cargo revenue made up more than 10% of United's sales. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwardsThrough June, cargo revenue made up 1.3% and 1.6% of overall revenue at Delta and American, respectively, down from 3.5% and 12% in 2020. The Baltic Air Freight Index, which tracks worldwide air cargo rates, is down 47% from a year earlier.

Persons: DAL, Leslie Josephs, United, it's Organizations: American Airlines, Philadelphia International Airport, CNBC Airlines, United, Delta, Baltic Air Freight, International Air Travel Association Locations: United, American, U.S, Europe

Like many, they home in on the outsized drop in used-car prices - one of the key aggravators of 'core' inflation that at 4.8% is still well above the now sub-3% headline CPI rate. Pointing to four straight months of ebbing 'trimmed mean' inflation measures of core inflation - which strip out high and low outliers - the Morgan Stanley team doubt June was a bum steer and see core disinflation more "a trend rather than a headfake". Inflation surprisesFed estimates of R* natural interest rateReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsR-STAR GAZINGOthers doubt the optimism, of course. And it's the latter that homes in on the prospect of an inflation undershoot. Further Fed tightening after this month, then, could well see markets start to consider inflation actually undershooting 2% targets after all - but dragging recession back onto the dashboard to boot.

Persons: it's, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Waller, Guneet Dhingra, Allen Liu, Janet Yellen jived, Mike Dolan Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters, Barclays, Global, Bank of America, Treasury, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Intriguingly

☆ Office landlords struggling for tenants are facing an even scarier predicament — zombie properties
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A zombie building is one that's too costly for a landlord to rent at prevailing rates. Office buildings purchased in the past five years could become zombies, a real-estate vet said. Like many New York office buildings, it's a dead man walking, similar to the hopelessly distressed shopping malls that have multiplied across the country over the past decade. One in four office buildings in Manhattan is valued at less than they last sold for, according to JLL. Bringing zombies back to lifeUnlike in the movies, zombie buildings don't remain undead forever.

Persons: Knotel, Michael Cohen, Cohen, —, haven't, RXR, Chetrit, HPS Organizations: New York, Macmillan Publishers, Manhattan, BNP, Real Estate, Green —, Blackstone, Chetrit, HPS Investment Partners Locations: New, New York City, New York, Manhattan, That's, HPS

☆ Alan Arkin Could Do It All. In ‘Glengarry Glen Ross,’ He Did.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Jason Bailey | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Moss and Levene push back against his generalizations, accusations and abuse; Aaronow does not. The bullish Moss baits the hook and reels the weaker man in, planting the idea and prompting further inquiry. And then watch the way he registers that, merely by listening, he has become an accessory to the crime. Mamet’s hyper-stylized dialogue isn’t easy to act; if the rhythm is off, it can feel unbearably phony, “written” rather than spoken. But Arkin more than holds his own against Harris here, and in later duets with Pacino, a similarly heavyweight dramatic actor.

Persons: Moss, Levene, ” Blake thunders, he’s, “ Glengarry Glen, ”, Lemmon’s Levene, Harris’s Moss, “, Blake, moans, Arkin, Harris, Pacino, He’s Locations: “ Glengarry, “ Glengarry Glen Ross, Glengarry

☆ San Francisco mayor proposes tearing down Westfield Mall
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —San Francisco’s mayor Thursday proposed remaking the city’s struggling downtown by tearing down abandoned retail space, including the city’s Westfield mall, and building new structures to reshape the struggling city. A Westfield Mall could become something completely different than what it currently is,” she said. Earlier this month, Westfield said it planned to surrender its mall, the San Francisco Centre, back to its lender. The mall operator cited the “challenging operating conditions in downtown San Francisco, which have led to declines in sales, occupancy and foot traffic.”Shoppers walk through the Westfield San Francisco Centre on April 13, 2022 in San Francisco, California. So, let’s make some adjustments to do everything we can to reimagine what parts of San Francisco can be,” Breed said.

Persons: London Breed, Breed’s, it’s, Breed, ”, Justin Sullivan, ” Breed Organizations: CNN, Westfield, ”, London, Bloomberg’s Technology, San Francisco Centre, Westfield San Francisco Centre, Resorts, Hilton San Francisco, Square, San Francisco, San Locations: Francisco’s, San Francisco, San Francisco , California, city’s, ”

☆ Chinese warship passed in 'unsafe manner' near US destroyer in Taiwan Strait, military officials say
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, June 4 (Reuters) - A Chinese warship came within 150 yards (137 meters) of a U.S. destroyer in the Taiwan Strait in "an unsafe manner," U.S. military officials said, as China blamed the United States for "deliberately provoking risk" in the region. China's military rebuked the United States and Canada for "deliberately provoking risk" after the countries' navies staged a rare joint sailing through the sensitive Taiwan Strait. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said the Chung-Hoon and Canada's Montreal were conducting a "routine" transit of the strait when the Chinese ship cut in front of the American vessel. The maritime encounter was the latest close call between the Chinese and U.S. military. Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu told Asia's top security summit on Sunday that conflict with the United States would be an "unbearable disaster" but that his country sought dialogue over confrontation.

Persons: Chung, Mao Zedong's, Taiwan's, Joe Biden, Hoon, Liu Pengyu, Jake Sullivan, Fareed Zakaria, Li Shangfu, Ted Hesson, Grant McCool Organizations: Pacific Command, Taiwan, U.S, U.S . Navy, Royal Canadian Navy, Global, U.S ., House, CNN, Chinese Defense, Thomson Locations: U.S, Taiwan, China, United States, People's Republic of China, Republic of China, Canada, The U.S, Republic, Taiwan Strait, Montreal, Washington, Chinese, South

☆ Dell's first-quarter results fall less than feared on cost cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The stock was halted after the company announced results during regular trading hours, earlier than its schedule for an after-market release. "We maintained pricing discipline, reduced operating expenses, and our supply chain continued to perform well after normalizing ahead of competitors," said Chuck Whitten, co-chief operating officer of Dell. Total operating expenses reduced 6% to $3.57 billion during the quarter. First-quarter revenue fell 20% to $20.92 billion, compared with analysts' expectations of $20.27 billion, according to Refinitiv data. Dell's client solutions unit - home to its consumer and enterprise PC business - posted a 23% fall in sales, while the infrastructure solutions unit, which includes servers, storage devices and networking hardware, saw an 18% decline.

Persons: Chuck Whitten, Dell, Tiyashi Datta, Mariam Sunny, Pratyush Thakur, Devika Organizations: Dell Technologies Inc, HP Inc, Lenovo Group, HK, Dell, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

"We maintained pricing discipline, reduced operating expenses, and our supply chain continued to perform well after normalizing ahead of competitors," said Chuck Whitten, co-chief operating officer of Dell. Total operating expenses fell 6% to $3.57 billion during the first quarter. The company's revenue dropped 20% to $20.92 billion, but came in above analysts' expectations of $20.27 billion, according to Refinitiv data. Dell's client solutions unit - home to its consumer and enterprise PC business - posted a 23% fall in sales, while the infrastructure solutions unit, which includes servers, storage devices and networking hardware, saw an 18% decline. The Texas-based company expects second-quarter revenue to be between $20.2 billion and $21.2 billion, below expectations of $21.2 billion at midpoint.

Persons: Chuck Whitten, Dell, Tiyashi Datta, Mariam Sunny, Pratyush Thakur, Devika Organizations: Dell Technologies Inc, HP Inc, Lenovo Group, HK, Dell, Thomson Locations: Texas, Bengaluru

☆ A Debt-Ceiling Catch-22 for Investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

As Democrats and Republicans debate raising the debt ceiling, they both agree that a default would be disastrous for the economy. Photo Illustration: Madeline MarshallNothing focuses politicians’ minds on cutting deals like cratering financial markets. And nothing stays investors’ hands from hitting the sell button like a belief that an 11th hour deal will be struck. This paradox is part of what makes the debt-ceiling negotiations so precarious.

☆ The Baby Boomer Retirement Surge Will Spark a Forever Labor Shortage
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Aki Ito | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

We're entering what is shaping up to be the Forever Labor Shortage. So what does the Forever Labor Shortage mean for workers in the years ahead? But perhaps the biggest change prompted by the labor shortage won't be how employers hire — it will be who they hire. In the Forever Labor Shortage, all labor is going to be in demand. That means the Forever Labor Shortage will be more an ongoing battle than an enduring peace.

☆ What Biden, McCarthy, McConnell said about the US debt ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said his chamber will not approve any deal that doesn't cut spending to address a growing budget deficit. PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN"I had a productive meeting with congressional leadership about the path forward, to make sure America does not default on its debt." Biden also did not rule out eventually invoking the 14th amendment to the U.S. Constitution, an untested approach that would seek to declare the debt limit unconstitutional. KEVIN MCCARTHY, SPEAKER, HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES"Everybody in this meeting, reiterated the positions they were at. MITCH McCONNELL, SENATE REPUBLICAN LEADER"We ought to have at least some restraint on our spending related to the debt ceiling, and this is not unusual.

With a wry nod to the weekend coronation of King Charles, Goldman Sachs' currency team labelled an upgrade of its sterling recommendation from neutral to 'Long (live) Sterling' - nudging a 3-month forecast for sterling 3% stronger to 0.86 per euro. "Headwinds on sterling in 2022 - mostly natural gas prices and the relative stance of BoE policy - have turned to tailwinds." Economic surprise indexes compiled by Citi show incoming UK readouts more positive relative to expectations than at any time since October 2020. But the FTSE 250 is mostly holding its own so far in 2023 as they have both advanced 3%-4%. UK Economic Surprises surge vs rest of the westG3 Terminal RatesFTSE100 vs FTSE250The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Quotes: What Biden, McCarthy, McConnell said about the US debt ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said his chamber will not approve any deal that doesn't cut spending to address a growing budget deficit. KEVIN MCCARTHY, SPEAKER, HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES"Everybody in this meeting, reiterated the positions they were at. "We explicitly asked speaker McCarthy would he take default off the table? MITCH McCONNELL, SENATE REPUBLICAN LEADER"We ought to have at least some restraint on our spending related to the debt ceiling, and this is not unusual. "The Republican House majority's shameful default bill is completely unworkable.

☆ Americans haven't been this worried about their bank deposits since the 2008 financial crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Recent events may be chipping away at confidence in the U.S. financial system, according to the findings of a Gallup survey. Nearly half of the 1,013 adults polled said they were "very worried" (19%) or "moderately worried" (29%) about the safety of the money they had tucked away in a bank or other financial institution, Gallup said. The level of concern expressed in the poll is similar to the findings that Gallup found shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, 2008. Still, a December 2008 reading had shown sentiment had already improved from those worst levels as steps were taken to ease the impact of the financial crisis. When the poll was conducted from April 3-25 this year, Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank had already failed.

☆ With Zelensky call, Xi Jinping steps up bid to broker peace – but does he have a plan?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Simone Mccarthy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands after signing a joint statement in Moscow on March 21, 2023. But another set of optics, Beijing’s close rapport with Moscow, has already embedded a deep skepticism in the West over China’s potential role as mediator. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Xi has claimed China’s neutrality, but has spoken with Putin five times – including twice in person – without picking up the phone to call Zelensky, despite a years-long strategic-level partnership between their countries. It calls for a ceasefire but includes no provision that Moscow first withdraw its troops from Ukrainian land. But this rapport has also been the reason that some leaders, including Zelensky and Macron, have expressed hope that Xi could leverage his clout to influence Russia to respect international law.

☆ Crypto is either dead in the water or about to notch new records as soon as next year - it depends on who you ask
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

You can scroll a bit further down for the market's reaction to the stunning Tucker Carlson announcement, but for today, we're turning our attention to crypto. If you ask Chamath Palihapitiya, that's because crypto crossed the wrong people and now it's dead, at least in the US. While crypto may be "dead in America," bitcoin is still going to $100,000. The housing market is close to bottoming and that could stave off a bad recession. That's according to Morgan Stanley, which wrote in a research note that housing is linked to broader business cycles.

If it is just a lagged statistical quirk, then the huge disparity in March inflation rates - of some 3-5 percentage points with western peers - should narrow sharply by yearend. With an election due next year, that may prove a big factor in any re-convergence of inflation rates if the cost of that is a much deeper economic downturn that rest. The question about Britain as an inflation outlier re-opens the age-old issue about just how that should be priced into sterling. For much of the past 10 years, G7 inflation rates were largely locked together in either their subdued pre-pandemic state or during the wild price spikes since. If UK inflation turns "idiosyncratic" among its peers during the much-vaunted normalization, then currency markets may need to rethink fundamental long-term assumptions about purchasing power, Gallo reckons.

☆ Succession's huge plot twist is more realistic than you'd think – the departure of a powerful CEO like Logan Roy really can cause wild share price swings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( Ryan Hogg | George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's real-life precedent that shows why a CEO can cause huge share price swings when they depart. He was portrayed as an omnipotent boss of the group, reflected in a cratering share price upon his death in the episode that aired April 9. But there is real-life precedent for a company's share price collapsing on news of a powerful CEO's ill-health. The power of Logan RoyThere are downsides to a stock being so closely linked to a powerful CEO like Jobs, Musk, or Roy. Indeed, there have been examples of a share price rally following the death of a CEO, because investors see it as a company decoupling from a deadweight boss.

☆ Morning Bid: Euro(pe) is on a roll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookThe euro emerged as the clearest winner of slowing U.S. inflation and a watchful Fed. The common currency climbed 0.7% on Wednesday and was still going at $1.10 in the Asian morning. It is up seven weeks in a row - the longest winning streak since the latter stages of 2020 when the dollar was falling and global markets were in a stimulus-soaked euphoria. The thinking goes that inflation will keep Europe's central bankers more hawkish than their U.S. counterparts, although perhaps not by much. Earnings this week could test the dollar's downtrend as markets look for signals on consumer behaviour and signs of tightening credit.

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