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China's own production of refined tin was flat year-on-year at 165,900 tonnes in 2022, according to Shanghai Metal Market. ShFE tin price, market open interest and stocksSHIFT IN POSITIONINGWhile China has reshaped tin's fundamental picture, the price recovery has forced an equally significant shift in fund positioning. Investment funds turned net short on the LME tin contract in September as the price was imploding. Tin market open interest collapsed from 102,106 to 71,218 contracts in the week before the Lunar New Year holidays, indicating a big clean-out of short positions. GOLDILOCKS PRICEThe tin price is now in the Goldilocks zone, not high enough to frighten off physical users, and not low enough to threaten existing supply.

Working gas stocks in underground storage were 293 billion cubic feet (-9%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average on Dec. 30 compared with a deficit of 71 billion cubic feet (-2%) on Dec. 16. Chartbook: U.S. gas prices and inventoriesTraders no longer fear inventories will run critically low this winter; they are instead preparing to deal with a large surplus that will need to be stored in the summer of 2023. The market moved from a record inventory depletion (-995 billion cubic feet) in January 2022 to a record seasonal accumulation (+442 billion cubic feet) in October 2022. Exports increased by 2,001 billion cubic feet (+54%), mostly in the form of increased LNG exports of 1,418 billion cubic feet (+79%). Related columns:- U.S. gas exports squeeze domestic supply (Reuters, Sept. 29)- U.S. power producers are consuming near-record volumes of gas (Reuters, Aug. 2)- U.S. gas prices climb as stocks fail to rebuild fast enough (Reuters, July 29)- U.S. gas production must accelerate to meet LNG export demand (Reuters, June 1)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Brent crude was up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.80 a barrel by 1:29 p.m. EST (1829 GMT). "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. "The NY Fed data should be supportive for oil prices, as it suggests that inflation is peaking," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group.

☆ Oil jumps 3% on demand optimism as China borders reopen
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"If recession is avoided, global oil demand and demand growth will remain resilient," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, adding that developments in China were the main reason for Monday's gains. "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," he said. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. ,Reporting by Alex Lawler Additional reporting by Florence Tan and Jeslyn Lerh Editing by David GoodmanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil rises on demand optimism as China borders reopen
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Jeslyn Lerh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Companies Baker Hughes Co FollowSINGAPORE, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Monday as the borders reopened in China, the world's top crude importer, boosting the outlook for fuel demand growth and offsetting global recession concerns. Brent crude futures were up $1.49, or 1.9%, at $80.06 a barrel as of 0745 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.43, or 1.9%, to $75.20. Those concerns are reflected in the market structure for the benchmark oil futures. ,"Oil prices have likely ticked up on increased confidence on China's reopening, but fears of recession in the wider global market remains. This uncertainty will likely lead to swings in oil prices in the near-term," said Serena Huang, Vortexa's head of APAC analysis.

Companies Baker Hughes Co FollowSINGAPORE, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Monday as the borders reopened in China, the world's top crude importer, boosting the outlook for fuel demand growth and offsetting global recession concerns. Brent crude futures rose 90 cents, or 1.2%, to $79.47 a barrel at 0520 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 90 cents, or 1.2%, at $74.67. Despite the gains in oil on Monday, concerns remain that the massive flow of Chinese travellers may cause another surge in COVID infections. Those concerns are reflected in the market structure for the benchmark oil futures. Energy futures for crude oil, refined products and natural gas have plummeted in the New Year as traders have reconsidered near-term worries over cold weather and fears of supply shortages and dumped contracts.

[1/2] The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. U.S. natural gas tumbled about 18% in the first week of January, the biggest slide on record to start a year, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. The 12% drop in distillate futures , was the biggest dive to start a year since 1991. In natural gas, U.S. futures fell further on Friday, dropping 5% to $3.52 per million British thermal units during the session, its lowest since July 2021. This week, it forecast U.S. natural gas prices would drop to $4.00-$4.20 per million British thermal units in the second quarter through third quarter.

LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Europe’s gas prices are slumping as the combination of mild weather and reduced industrial consumption has produced an unusual seasonal increase in inventories which threatens to overwhelm the storage system. EU28 gas storage is very different from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and emergency petroleum stockpiles maintained in other countries. Given finite capacity in the gas storage system, there is a limit to how much conservation in winter 2022/23 can improve supply security in winter 2023/24. Slumping gas prices imply the limit is close to being reached. Policymakers have criticised very high prices for gas that prevailed for much of 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

☆ Oil prices slide 2% as dollar firms and central banks hike interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices slid about 2% on Thursday as traders worried about the fuel demand outlook due to a stronger dollar and further interest rate hikes by global central banks. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates further next year, even as the economy slips toward a possible recession. On Thursday, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank raised interest rates to fight inflation. Also pressuring oil prices, Canada's TC Energy Corp <TRP.TO> said it was resuming operations in a section of its Keystone pipeline, a week after a leak of more than 14,000 barrels of oil in Kansas triggered a shutdown. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by more than 10 million barrels last week, the most since March 2021, the Energy Information Administration said.

☆ Oil prices rise amid forecasts of 2023 demand uptick
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures last rose $2.17, or 2.69%, to $82.85 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $2.08 at $77.46. Looking into 2023, OPEC said it expects oil demand to grow by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) over next year to 101.8 million bpd, with potential upside from China, the world's top importer. The IEA, seeing Chinese oil demand recovering next year after a 400,000 bpd contraction in 2022, raised its 2023 oil demand growth estimate to 1.7 million bpd for a total of 101.6 million bpd. Oil prices have been supported by a leak and outage of TC Energy Corp's Keystone Pipeline, which ships 620,000 barrels per day of Canadian crude to the United States. Sending bearish signals, U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by more than 10 million barrels last week, the most since March 2021, buoyed by releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and as refiners reduced activity.

Brent crude futures settled up $2.02, or 2.4%, to $82.70 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled up $1.94 to $77.28. Both contracts rose on a surge in diesel futures ahead of cold weather expected towards the end of the year. Sending bearish signals, U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by more than 10 million barrels last week, the most since March 2021, buoyed by releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and as refiners reduced activity. Looking into 2023, OPEC said it expects oil demand to grow by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) over next year to 101.8 million bpd, with potential upside from China, the world's top importer. The IEA, seeing Chinese oil demand recovering next year after a 400,000-bpd contraction in 2022, raised its 2023 oil demand growth estimate to 1.7 million bpd for a total of 101.6 million bpd.

UNMASKINGGlobal oil and energy consumption have been falling since the third quarter under the impact of exceptionally high prices and a slowing economy. But the impact was initially masked by concerns about the planned introduction of the price cap on Russia's crude and refined products exports. Traders anticipated the price cap and Russia's response would cut production by more than the economic slowdown cut consumption. LESSONS FROM 2014The recent slump in oil prices shares some, though not all, characteristics with the slump occurring in the third quarter of 2014 ("A brief history of the oil crash", Reuters, January 2015). It is also probable recent hedge fund liquidation has exaggerated the recent fall in oil prices creating some headroom for a short-term rebound; positions are now unusually low.

☆ Oil steady as China revival hopes offset Russia uncertainty
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Trixie Sher Li Yap | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Brent crude futures edged up 3 cents, or 0.04%, to $79.38 a barrel by 0717 GMT, after they fell below $80 for the second time in 2022 during the previous trading session. U.S. crude futures mostly traded sideways, and were down 9 cents or 0.12% to $74.16 a barrel. "China has (been) rapidly eased COVID-19 restrictions, which may boost demand," markets analyst Leon Li at CMC Markets said in a note. The reopening could see a 1% boost to global oil demand, ANZ said in a client note. Oil prices have dropped by more than 1% for three straight sessions, giving up most of their gains for the year.

SINGAPORE, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Oil futures edged slightly higher on Wednesday on hopes for improved Chinese demand while uncertainty about how a Western cap on Russian oil prices would play out kept markets on edge after a sharp fall the previous session. U.S. crude futures clawed back earlier losses and were steady from the previous close at $74.25 a barrel. "China has (been) rapidly eased COVID-19 restrictions, which may boost demand," markets analyst Leon Li at CMC Markets said in a note. However, uncertainty on how the price cap on Russian oil would play out on supply contributed to volatility. Oil prices have dropped by more than 1% for three straight sessions, giving up most of their gains for the year.

Brent crude futures were down $2.18, or 2.6%, at $83.39 a barrel by 1:23 p.m. EST (1823 GMT). read moreThe news caused oil and stock markets to pare gains. The data challenges hopes that the Fed might slow the pace and intensity of its rate hikes amid recent signs of ebbing inflation. The Group of Seven (G7) countries and Australia last week agreed on a $60 a barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil. At the same time, in a positive sign for fuel demand in the world's top oil importer, more Chinese cities eased COVID curbs over the weekend.

NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The global oil market is signaling a potential shift, as traders and analysts worry about reduced crude demand and an oversupplied market in the coming months. On Dec. 5, a European Union ban on Russian crude imports is set to start, along with a plan by the G7 nations to force shippers to comply with a price cap on Russian oil sales. In the last week, crude futures contracts have flipped in and out of contango, where the prompt price of a commodity is lower than the future price, which suggests short-term weakness. Offers of Angolan and other West African crude oil to China, a main customer, are a barometer of physical crude demand from the country. In addition, European refiners have found themselves oversupplied with crude as an expected shortage owing to the looming EU ban on Russian oil has yet to materialise.

Summary Brent, WTI fall for third consecutive weekEU delays talks on Russian oil price cap until next weekPoland seeks German support for EU sanctions on pipelineNEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 2% on Friday in thin market liquidity, closing a week marked by worries about Chinese demand and haggling over a Western price cap on Russian oil. Brent crude futures settled down $1.71, or 2%, to trade at $83.63 a barrel, having retraced some earlier gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.66, or 2.1%, at $76.28 a barrel. This is starting to hit fuel demand, with traffic drifting down and implied oil demand around 1 million barrels per day lower than average, an ANZ note showed. Meanwhile, G7 and European Union diplomats have been discussing a Russian oil price cap between $65 and $70 a barrel, but an agreement has still not been reached.

☆ Oil prices edge up as softer dollar outweighs China demand concerns
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Isabel Kua | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices inched higher on Tuesday as the dollar eased, but global recession worries and concerns about China's rising COVID-19 case numbers denting demand from the world's top crude oil importer weighed on sentiment. Brent crude futures rose 44 cents, or 0.5%, to $87.89 by 0513 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for January began trading Tuesday, rising 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $80.34 a barrel. In the United States, crude oil stocks were estimated to have dropped by about 2.2 million barrels in the week to Nov. 18, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. The front-month Brent crude futures spread narrowed sharply last week, while WTI flipped into contango, which suggests supply concerns are easing.

Nov 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose slightly in early Asian trade on Tuesday, a day after Saudi Arabia denied a media report that it was discussing an increase in oil supply with OPEC and its allies. Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $87.62 by 0007 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for January began trading Tuesday, rising 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.11 a barrel. Prices rebounded quickly in full after Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom is sticking with output cuts and not discussing a potential oil output increase with other OPEC oil producers, state news agency SPA reported, denying the WSJ report. The front-month Brent crude futures spread narrowed sharply last week, while WTI flipped into contango, reflecting easing supply concerns.

☆ Oil rebounds from early plunge after Saudis deny OPEC+ output report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Brent crude futures for January settled at $87.45, shedding 17 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for December settled at $79.73 a barrel, falling 35 cents ahead of the contract's expiry later on Monday. Oil then retraced its losses after Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom is sticking with output cuts and not discussing a potential oil output increase with other OPEC oil producers, state news agency SPA reported, denying the Journal report. Expectations of further increases to interest rates have buoyed the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities like crude more expensive for investors. The front-month Brent crude futures spread narrowed sharply last week while WTI flipped into contango, reflecting dwindling supply concerns.

☆ Oil prices rebound from early dive as reports vary on OPEC+ output
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Brent crude futures for January fell 77 cents, or 0.9%, to $86.85 a barrel by 12:54 p.m. EST (1754 GMT) . U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for December were down 58 cents, or 0.7%, at $79.50 ahead of the contract's expiry later on Monday. Oil retraced most losses after Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom is not discussing a potential oil output increase with other OPEC oil producers, state news agency SPA reported, denying the Journal report. Expectations of further increases to interest rates have buoyed the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities like crude more expensive for investors. The front-month Brent crude futures spread narrowed sharply last week while WTI flipped into contango, reflecting dwindling supply concerns.

☆ Oil dips near 2-month lows as supply concerns ease
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Oil prices hovered near two-month lows on Monday as supply fears receded while concerns over China's fuel demand and rising interest rates weighed on prices. Brent crude futures for January had slipped 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $87.34 a barrel by 0103 GMT after settling at their lowest since Sept. 27. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for December were at $80 a barrel, down 8 cents, ahead of the contract's expiry later on Monday. The front-month Brent crude futures spread narrowed sharply last week while WTI flipped into a contango, reflecting dwindling supply concerns. RBC Capital analyst Mike Tran said the weak December WTI contract expiration indicated paper market selling rather than true physical market softness.

Apart from generating and selling electricity, RWE also operates a large desk that trades in electricity, gas and CO2 certificates as well as other commodities, which can lead to bumper profits in times of significant price swings. "We have a very fundamental understanding of how markets work," Chief Financial Officer Michael Mueller told reporters on Thursday. Stifel Research, keeping a "buy" rating on RWE shares, said trading results were driven by so-called contango, where the futures price of a commodity is higher than spot levels. Nine-month adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose to 4.1 billion euros ($4.1 billion), up from 2.4 billion a year earlier. Apart from the strong performance in trading, where profits were up 59%, results also benefited from higher electricity wholesale prices for gas and biomass, Mueller said.

Benchmark gas futures prices for nearby months have already slumped as storage space starts to run out, while inventories continue to accumulate at unusually fast rates for the time of year. Calendar spreads from November through January have shifted into contango as inventories are expected to be plentiful in the first part of winter. Inventories are now 128 TWh (14% or 1.20 standard deviations) above the 10-year seasonal average for 2012-2021 (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, Gas Infrastructure Europe, Oct. 26). Related columns:- Europe's gas prices retreat as storage almost full (Reuters, Oct. 13)- Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Chartbook: Europe gas prices and storageMAXIMUM STORAGEInventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom (EU28) have climbed to 1,029 terawatt-hours (TWh), according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks are +110 TWh (+12% or +1.0 standard deviations) above the seasonal average for the previous ten years ("Aggregated gas storage inventory", GIE, Oct. 13). STILL NOT ENOUGHThe combination of falling nearby prices with firming prices later in the winter and the rest of 2023 highlights the limitations of Europe's storage system. In that case, the market will still need much higher prices or some form of physical rationing to conserve stocks later in the winter. Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)- Europe tops up gas stocks, but winter demand cuts essential (Reuters, Sept. 7)- EU prepares public opinion for winter gas siege (Reuters, July 27)- Europe forced to pay even higher prices to fill gas storage (Reuters, July 5)- Europe fills gas storage at record rate as Asia's buyers step aside (Reuters, May 17)- Europe makes rapid start on refilling gas storage (Reuters, May 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

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