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☆ Morning Bid: Banks calm the horses
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As U.S. banking giants calm the horses, global investors are now concentrated on world growth and earnings signals more than interest rate rises for direction - with an assumption the latter are near an end anyway. Somewhat relieved analysts marginally brightened their dim outlook for first-quarter U.S. results compared with a week ago. Futures markets now see a more than 80% chance the Fed will execute one final quarter point rate rise next month - reversing it by September. That rate rise would bring the real Fed policy rate - adjusted by headline consumer price inflation - into positive territory for the first time in three years. The dollar extended Friday's rebound as the May rate rise pricing hardened.

☆ Asia shares gain as Singapore stops tightening, euro climbs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dovish signals helped keep non-yielding gold near one-year highs, while the euro led the currency pack as the European Central Bank stays stubbornly hawkish. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) surprised many by leaving policy unchanged, saying the tightening already underway would ensure inflation slowed sharply later this year. A break under 100bp would see the spread at its narrowest since early 2014, when the euro was up around $1.3600. The dollar was relatively steady on the yen at 132.51 yen , supported by the Bank of Japan's easy policy stance. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday he told his G20 counterparts the central bank will likely keep monetary policy ultra-loose.

☆ Asia shares up as Singapore joins the pause camp
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) surprised many by leaving policy unchanged, saying the tightening already underway would ensure inflation slowed sharply later this year. The prospect of a peak for rates helped offset worries about recession and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) nudged up 0.4%. The euro was also near highs seen back in November above 146.00 yen , and jumped to a 10-month peak on the Singapore dollar after the MAS decision. The dollar was relatively steady on the yen at 132.57 yen , supported by the Bank of Japan's still uber-easy policy stance. Brent edged up 27 cents to $86.36 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 26 cents to $82.42 per barrel.

☆ As earnings season begins, S&P 500 forecast looks less weak
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

That compares with their week-ago forecast for a 5.2% year-over-year decline in the quarter. S&P 500 earnings fell 3.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2022, based on Refinitiv data, which means the first quarter still would mark a second straight quarterly decline in U.S. earnings, or a profit recession. Investors have been eagerly awaiting quarterly results from banks following the collapse of two U.S. regional banks in March. A slew of other regional banks are still due to report in the coming weeks, including Zions Bancorp (ZION.O) on Wednesday. Quarterly results are also expected next week from Goldman Sachs Group (GS.N) and Netflix (NFLX.O).

☆ She met her long lost cousin on a cruise ship
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Francesca Street | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The following year, 2015, Eileen celebrated her 70th birthday with a voyage on board Cunard’s Queen Elizabeth cruise ship. She was in shock when she met Paddy at the cruise bar. “We compared stories of travels around the world.”Transatlantic friendshipHere's Paddy, Hazel, Gerard and Eileen photographed on board the Queen Elizabeth cruise ship in 2015, not long after they met. Monaghan familyFor the remaining two weeks of the cruise, the two long lost cousins and their spouses were inseparable. Eileen has also met a whole host of other Irish family members through Paddy.

☆ Shadow banks: The other financial firms worrying investors and regulators
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —The International Monetary Fund warned this week of “vulnerabilities” among so-called non-bank financial institutions, saying global financial stability could hinge on their resilience. The term encompasses financial firms, other than banks, that provide all manner of financial services, including lending to households and businesses. The sector has grown strongly since the global financial crisis in 2008, with its asset base expanding by 7% a year on average, according to FSB data. Non-banks that provide credit are known as “shadow banks,” although the term is often used imprecisely to mean all non-banks. Shadow banks now make up about 14% of the world’s financial assets and, like many non-banks, operate without the same level of regulatory oversight and transparency as banks.

☆ German exports rise significantly more than expected in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, April 4 (Reuters) - German exports rose significantly more than expected in February due to strong demand from the United States and China, posting their biggest increase in 10 months, data showed on Tuesday. Exports increased by 4.0% on the previous month, the federal statistics office said. A Reuters poll had predicted a month-on-month rise in exports of 1.6%. In February, exports to European Union countries rose 2.0% on the previous month, while exports to the U.S. and China increased by 9.4% and 10.2% respectively compared with January. Despite the increase, export demand still lacks momentum, Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo, said.

☆ Japan's business mood sours to 2-year low as global slowdown bites, Tankan survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Japan's business sentiment soured in January-March to hit the worst level in more than two years, the closely-watched tankan survey showed on April 3, 2023. Akio Kon | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesJapan's business sentiment soured in January-March to hit the worst level in more than two years, a closely-watched central bank survey showed on Monday, as slowing global growth clouds the outlook for the export-reliant economy. The service-sector mood, by contrast, recovered as easing border controls and an end to Covid-19 curbs heightened hopes for a rebound in tourism and consumption, the Bank of Japan's tankan survey showed. It was the fifth straight quarter of deterioration and the worst level hit since December 2020. Given the fragile nature of Japan's recovery, the BOJ is not in a situation where it can normalize monetary policy anytime soon.

The service-sector mood, by contrast, recovered as easing border controls and an end to COVID-19 curbs heightened hopes for a rebound in tourism and consumption, the Bank of Japan's tankan survey showed. Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, expects external factors, such as the fallout from U.S. and European monetary tightening, to weigh on Japan's exports and business sentiment. "Given the fragile nature of Japan's recovery, the BOJ is not in a situation where it can normalise monetary policy anytime soon," he said. Big firms plan to raise capital expenditure by 3.2% in the fiscal year that began in April, less than market forecasts for a 4.9% gain, the tankan showed. Reporting by Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: After SVB collapse, stricter rules coming for banks?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The rise in yields suggests traders are growing confident the banking turmoil is subsiding, and they're turning their attention back to inflation. In a bizarre way, even if that's bad news for inflation, that's probably good news for everyone who's been consumed by banking fears in recent days. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: UBS gets a new (old) Group CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. This suggests UBS is prioritizing stability as it proceeds with its merger with Credit Suisse. The rise in yields suggests traders are growing confident the banking turmoil is subsiding, and they're turning their attention back to inflation. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Gold steadies, Fed pause bets brighten outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was little changed at $1,996.19 per ounce at 1202 GMT, holding a relatively narrow $20 range. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,997.50. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell for the third straight session, while the dollar index rose 0.7%. Commerzbank raised its year-end gold forecasts to $2,000, joining similar upward revisions by Goldman Sachs, Citi and ANZ. Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Sohini Goswami and Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers, was flat at 104.64, but was still set for a February gain of 2.6%, its first monthly increase since September. The next move in the dollar is really a function of how the February data starts to play out in March," Atrill said. U.S. Treasury yields have also moved higher with the inflation sensitive two-year yield back at three-and- a-half-month highs. [US/}The dollar on Tuesday gained particularly against the Japanese yen , climbing 0.44% to 136.84, its highest in over two months. ,Elsewhere, sterling built on its gains from the previous session against the dollar, rising 0.2% to $1.2082.

☆ Asian shares edge higher, dollar rally takes a breather
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Asian shares nudged higher on Tuesday, tracking small gains on Wall Street, while the U.S. dollar paused after a sharp rally as month-end flows lift sentiment and investors adjust to expectations of more interest rate hikes. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.25% higher but was set to end the month down about 6%. China shares (.SSEC) was up 0.4% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) was 1% higher but was on track to end its three month winning streak as the China reopening rally loses steam. China shares have also been weighed down by rising geopolitical tension, with U.S.-China relations the dominant uncertainty at the forefront of investor minds. The dollar index , which measures U.S. currency against six other peers, rose 0.048% and was set to snap a four month losing streak.

☆ Sterling holds gains after rising on UK trade deal with EU
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The pound held steady on Tuesday, retaining gains overnight after Britain struck a new trade deal with the European Union, which brightened the outlook for the post-Brexit UK economy and signalled improved relations between London and the bloc. The dollar was mostly flat in early trade but was on track to end higher for the month, ending a four-month losing streak. The euro similarly got a lift and was last 0.05% higher at $1.0614, after rising 0.6% on Monday. The British parliament will now vote on the deal, with the opposition Labour Party saying it will vote in favour. "The real thing is, is this a springboard for a stronger, much improved removal of trade frictions more generally, between the UK and the EU?"

☆ Dollar edges higher, headed for 1st monthly gain since September
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"The market has repriced the Fed and it now sees a higher terminal rate and low scope for cuts for the rest of the year. And that's what the dollar strength reflects," said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist, at UBS. The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of peers, was 0.29% higher at 104.98, and is set for a February gain of 2.4%, its first monthly increase since September. We think some of the dollar strength is exaggerated. So we are cautiously fading dollar strength," UBS' Serebriakov said.

☆ U.S. business activity rebounds to eight-month high in February- S&P Global survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February, reaching its highest level in eight months, according to a survey on Tuesday, which also showed inflation subsiding. S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 50.2 this month from a final reading of 46.8 in January. The services sector accounted for the rise in business activity, while manufacturing remained weak. The survey's flash manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8 from 46.9 in January. The survey's flash services sector PMI increased to 50.5 from 46.8 in January.

☆ Morning Bid: Too flashy?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. If investors' big concern about the new year is that the U.S. economy is running too hot, then February's flash business surveys from around the world will do little to soothe nerves. U.S. markets return from Monday's Presidents Day holiday and the early readout on this month's factory and service sector activity tops the slate. Aside from Tuesday's business surveys, a reality check for U.S. retailers is due from Walmart and Home Depot's quarterly earnings - holding last month's red-hot retail numbers up to the light. In banking, HSBC (HSBA.L) rose 1.5% - bouncing back from early losses after announcing a surge in its quarterly profit.

Feb 17 (Reuters) - Chinese dealmaker Bao Fan, founder of investment bank China Renaissance Holdings Ltd (1911.HK), has gone missing in the latest disappearance of a top business executive, unnerving investors and sending its stock down as much as 50% on Friday. A China Renaissance spokesperson referred Reuters request for comment on Friday to the investment bank's public filing. The firm earned $20.6 million in Chinese related investment banking fees in 2022, down from $43.13 million a year earlier, the data showed. Bao started China Renaissance in 2005 as a two-person team, seeking to match capital-hungry startups with venture capitalist and private equity investors. China Renaissance is also an active investor in the tech sector.

☆ Yields are popping again. Here's how investors can take advantage of that, according to the pros
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

How can investors ride on higher yields? Buy high-quality or short-term fixed income BlackRock Investment Institute said it likes high-quality credit and short-end government bonds "as interest rates stay higher for longer." "Fixed income finally offers 'income' after yields surged globally. "We believe that investors should hold around 2% of cash in their portfolios and should use short-term fixed income (anything below a 2-year maturity) as a proxy for cash," Alvarado added. Wells Fargo Investment Institute's tactical portfolios are allocating between 2% (for "aggressive growth investors") and 17% (for conservative income investors) to short-term fixed income.

☆ PwC isn't panicked about this 'economic pessimism' — in fact, one exec thinks it's an opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-12 | by ( Tim Paradis | Josée Rose | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"No management team gets paid to languish," Bricker told Insider. For some top execs, the need to look further ahead is an existential one: Nearly 40% of surveyed CEOs told PwC that they didn't think their organization would be economically viable in a decade without transforming. That's because efforts around diversity could help a company's workforce perform better, and sustainability investments can help companies boost revenue and shave costs. "The strategies that I see business leaders really starting to focus on is not viewing sustainability as a luxury good, but as an essential element of business," Bricker said. The idea of sparing workers where possible aligns with what CEOs told PwC in the survey, which gathered responses from some 4,440 business heads in October and November.

HONG KONG, Feb 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Beijing's energy policy will indirectly support Europe. The European Union imported a record 131 bcm of LNG last year, 60% more than in 2021, Kpler data show. That’s why Chinese LNG imports are forecast to rise just 7% this year to 94 bcm, according to data provider OilChem China, or 14% below their 2021 peak. While strengthening its own energy security, China may accidentally help keep Europe warm. Chinese LNG imports are expected to rise 7% to 94 billion cubic metres in 2023 from a year before, according to data provider OilChem China.

☆ Why did we get a monster jobs report if the economy is slowing?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

And yet, even though it seemed impossible, the labor market is somehow getting tighter, said Rucha Vankudre, senior economist at business analytics firm Lightcast. “I think pretty much all the labor economists in the country this morning are shocked,” Vankudre said Friday during a webinar after the jobs report was released. The January jobs report shouldn’t trigger a wholesale change of what Fed members are thinking or what they were planning on doing before this report, Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN. Strong labor market in a slowing economy? January’s jobs report came with added complexity, because it included annual updates to populations estimates and revisions to employer survey data.

☆ IMF downgrades UK growth forecast, predicting only economic decline among G-7 countries
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON — The International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for the U.K. economy even as it turns more optimistic on global growth. Its new 2023 forecast on Monday evening also sees the U.K. as the only "advanced economy" to contract, by 0.6%. This is 0.9 percentage points lower than its previous estimate. The IMF forecasts 1.4% growth in the U.S. in 2023, 0.7% growth in the euro area, 1.8% growth in Japan and 1.5% growth in Canada. Meanwhile, it hiked its outlook for the global economy by 0.2 percentage points from its last report in October, to 2.9%.

☆ Morning Bid: 'Soft landing' or 'no landing'?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee kicks off its two-day policymaking meeting, the economic news from around the world brightened considerably. China's economic activity swung back to growth in January after three months of contraction, according to official business surveys released on Tuesday. The euro zone economy confounded forecasts for a quarterly contraction of gross domestic product in the final three months of 2022. Eurostat estimated GDP in the bloc rose 0.1% in Q4 despite consensus expectations for a fall of 0.1%. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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