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Read previewThe US job market has certainly seen better days. AdvertisementThose rate cuts will help pull the job market out of its slowdown — but likely not before the unemployment rate climbs higher, says Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. And even then, it could take time for the effects of rate cuts to fully work their way across the job market, said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. AdvertisementSlowdown in the pipelineUntil rate cuts kick in, Allen thinks the joblessness rate has even more room to climb. AdvertisementForward-looking indicators of job market strength have also been flashing signs of incoming weakness.
Persons: , Oliver Allen, Allen, , Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Pantheon, Challenger, Gray &, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWedbush's Dan Ives on big tech: Hard to be bearish on Apple in 'AI-driven super cycle'Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities analyst, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss big tech names Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia as the tech sell-off leads stocks lower.
Persons: Dan Ives Organizations: Apple, Wedbush Securities, Nvidia
After reaching a peak around $320 in July 2023, META spent four solid months bouncing between price support around $280 and retesting the July peak. With this week's earnings beat, we'll likely see META test the upper end of this new trading range. Here we can see the recent trading range in much better context, but we can also see weakening momentum conditions. The declining momentum on the weekly chart suggests a serious headwind to META's attempt to break out of its recent trading range. The 2023 range was finally eclipsed once we saw an upside break above a clearly defined resistance level.
Persons: we'll, David Keller Organizations: Meta, CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday the recent reshuffling on Wall Street is about more than a resurgence in small-cap stocks. "This market is not experiencing a smallcap rally, it's experiencing a rally in everything else but the tech titans. Cramer suggested the market isn't being led solely by a few smaller-cap companies that are performing well. Instead, he said, large institutions may be buying poor quality small stocks "as part of a larger basket" with indexes like the Russell 2000 or the S&P Small Cap 600. There are also larger companies that have seen huge gains recently as part of the market broadening, he said, such as McDonald's .
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Russell, Wall, McDonald's Organizations: titans
It reports earnings this week and traders are expecting a monster move. Customers can browse a large inventory of used vehicles on Carvana's website, complete with detailed photos, 360-degree views, and vehicle history reports. Their model eliminates most of the negative associations of used car dealers by offering convenience, transparency, and a hassle-free car buying experience without the used car salesman. The company's stock fell more than 80% from February 2020 in the pandemic plunge before rallying 1600% on record used car margins caused by supply constraints due to pandemic shutdowns. CVNA YTD mountain Carvana (YTD) Carvana will report earnings this coming Wednesday after the bell and the 18% earnings-related implied move ranks near the top of the Russell 1000 companies regarding earnings volatility.
Persons: Carvana, Russell, I'm Organizations: Carvana, Machines, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
"The Big Short" traders Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins are focused on one of their top long bets: gold. "I just don't think Americans have enough gold in their portfolio," Collins said on CNBC's " Fast Money " in an exclusive interview this week . We are still very long gold , gold miners , Silver , Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) and Bitcoin ," they wrote. In a special email to "Fast Money" on Monday, Moses wrote he has a "large long" in the Sprott Physical Gold Trust . As of Friday's close, the Sprott Physical Gold trust is up more than 16% so far this year.
Persons: Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins, Collins, Daniel, Moses Organizations: Seawolf, Group Metals, Moses Ventures, Trust Locations: U.S
But it's hard to argue against the track record of his most preferred valuation measure — total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of those stocks — when it comes to long-term stock-market returns. Unfortunately for investors, the measure just hit an all-time high, topping levels seen in 1929, 2000, 2008, and 2022. Here's the metric:AdvertisementHussman Funds"Last week, our most reliable measure of stock market valuations hit the highest extreme in history," Hussman wrote in a July 20 commentary. AdvertisementWhile Hussman's valuation measure doesn't necessitate near-term losses, there is some evidence that stocks could soon face downside. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls.
Persons: , John Hussman, Hussman, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Locations: recessionary
The put is OTM because the strike price is below the spot price. Related storiesIf you have a bullish outlook on the IWM, you expect the share price to continue rising or at least not drop below the strike price. Picking the appropriate strike price is subjective and based on a trader's risk tolerance and the premium they're looking for. Tastylive, options chainSince options contracts are purchased in lots of 100, it could seem nerve-racking to think you may need to accept delivery of those shares. Worst-case scenario, you end up owning IWM shares at a cost below what you would have bought them for on the spot market, Dierking said.
Persons: Russell, Liz Dierking, Dierking, IWM, That's Organizations: Service, Nasdaq Locations: IWM
Federal prosecutors and securities regulators filed criminal and civil fraud charges against a well-known investor who frequently appeared on cable TV business shows to discuss his often bearish views on stocks, the authorities said on Friday. They accused the investor, Andrew Left, of raking in at least $16 million in illegal profits from a multiyear scheme to manipulate market prices of roughly two dozen stocks on which his firm, Citron Research, had published reports. He is charged with illegally profiting through stock trades he made that were contrary to the public recommendations he was making to investors. The authorities in Los Angeles said Mr. Left essentially used a bait-and-switch strategy that was at odds with his Wall Street reputation of being a vocal short seller, with supposedly long-held negative views of the stocks on which he published critical reports. The charging documents said Mr. Left, 54, used his high profile on Wall Street to make quick profits from big price changes in a stock and misled investors by making them believe his economic interests were aligned with what he said in his reports.
Persons: Andrew Left Organizations: Citron Research Locations: Los Angeles
GLD 5Y mountain GLD The SPDR Gold Shares ETF is the world's largest, with BlackRock's iShares Gold Trust and iShares Physical Gold ETC the second and third, respectively. Other top physical gold ETFs include the Borse Commodities GmbH Xetra-Gold and the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust . Gold mining ETFs Buying gold mining ETFs — which own shares of multiple gold mining companies — is another way to get exposure to gold, and Meyer described those backed by large banks as "relatively safe," in an email to CNBC. "Even though gold equities respond to changes in gold price, the degree of that response has deteriorated over time," he said, adding that the risks and costs of gold extraction can weigh on miners. A selection of gold bars and one-ounce gold coins at Gold Investments Ltd. bullion dealers in London, UK, on Tuesday, May 21, 2024.
Persons: Tom Price, Price, Berenberg, Robin Bhar, Amy Arnott, John Meyer, Colin Hamilton, BlackRock's, Meyer, Barrick Gold Panmure Liberum, George Milling, Stanley, they're, Morningstar's Arnott, Bhar, Chris Ratcliffe Organizations: CNBC, Panmure, Bank of America, Citi, UBS, Gold, Morningstar, SP, CNBC Pro, Royal Mint, BMO Capital Markets, Borse Commodities, MiniShares, Gold Miners ETF, Miners, Barrick, Resolute Mining, Hochschild, Caledonia Mining, Barrick Gold Panmure, Endeavour Mining, Endeavour, Pan, Resources, State Street Global Advisors, Gold Investments, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Panmure Liberum, U.S . New York, United States, U.S, Hochschild Mining, Zimbabwe, London, West Africa, Berenberg
A subsequent pullback saw the price bounce off that breakout level, which also lined up with the 50-day moving average. This is a sector full of low-volatility, high yielding stocks that have often provided downside protection in down market phases. ES just broke to a new three-month high this week, and the stock features a dividend yield around 4.5%. When the broad market averages take a bearish turn, equity investors are often best served by getting defensive. These three stocks feature improving technical profiles, along with dividend yields well above the average for the S & P 500.
Persons: Philip Morris, BTI, Eversource, we've, David Keller Organizations: American Tobacco PLC, Eversource Energy, Eversource, Nasdaq, CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S, British American
In today's big story, we're looking at another Tesla earnings report that was light on details about big future plans . The approach worked well last quarter when Tesla's earnings report was even worse than expected . However, big-picture plans without concrete details fell flat for investors this time around. It's Tesla's silver lining amid the EV market slowdown. But as beneficial as competitors were to Tesla this quarter, others seem to be gearing up for battle.
Persons: Jordan Strauss, Chelsea Jia Feng, Elon, Katherine Tangalakis, Hannah Getahun, that's, , Musk, Toby Melville, BI's Nora Naughton, It's, BI's Jordan Hart, Sundar Pichai, Waymo, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Wall, Keith Lerner, Ed Yardeni, Michael M, Tyler Le, Jensen Huang, Rebecca Zisser, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Business, Chelsea, AP, Tesla, Getty, BI Supply, Nvidia, Big Tech, Hollywood, AWS, Microsoft, Paramount, Digital, Google, IBM, Ford Motors, Samsung, Galaxy, The Locations: Waymo, San Francisco, Phoenix, New York, Paris, London
investments might be three times as large as expected returns, while another analyst, in several assessments published by Sequoia Capital, calculated that investments in A.I. (He called this “A.I.’s $600 billion question” and warned of “investment incineration.”) In a similarly bearish Goldman Sachs report, the firm’s head of global equity research estimated that the cost of A.I. “Replacing low-wage jobs with tremendously costly technology is basically the polar opposite of the prior technology transitions I’ve witnessed,” he noted. expenditure, more than the United States spends annually on its military, and think: What exactly is that money going toward? slop”: often uncanny, frequently misleading material, now flooding web browsers and social-media platforms like spam in old inboxes.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Erik Hoel, Anthony Aguirre “, A.I, , slop, we’ve Organizations: Barclays, Sequoia Capital Locations: A.I, United
The record stock market rally will get a boost from key economic data and earnings results, Ed Yardeni said. Yardeni highlighted strong company earnings and profit margins supporting the market in a way it didn't in 2000. AdvertisementThe stock market rally is set to continue this week as investors digest two key pieces of economic data and an onslaught of second-quarter earnings results. "We've acknowledged that the current stock market rally is reminiscent of the valuation-led market meltup of the 1990s. "We're expecting S&P 500 earnings per share of $250, $270, and $300 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, , We've, we've, Yardeni, We're Organizations: Service, Yardeni Research, PCE, Federal Reserve
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Meanwhile, the Wall Street analysts argued that hedge funds have become more bearish on fellow portfolio name Advanced Micro Devices . As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, clawing, Estee Lauder, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, Biden, Donald Trump, Jim, She's, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Club, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Citigroup, Broadcom, VMware, Wall Street, Devices, Citi, AMD Locations: Silicon Valley
CNBC Daily Open: Biden drops out, endorses Harris
  + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 01, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Get the CNBC Daily Open report in your inbox every morning and keep up to date with the markets wherever you are. Big Tech faces the challenge of rekindling Wall Street's enthusiasm after a $900 billion tech rout.
Persons: Sebastian Raedler, haven't, Stephanie Pope, Max, CNBC's Jim Cramer, Elon Musk, Dan Ives, Lina Khan, Khan, Ives, CrowdStrike, Fred Imbert, , Alex Harring, Jesse Pound, Kevin Williams, Leslie Josephs, Josie Rozzelle, Kevin Breuninger, Dan Mangan, Zev Fima, Spencer Kimball, Lim Hui Jie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Bank of America, Boeing, Farnborough, Trump, Microsoft, Securities, Big Tech, Google, Apple Locations: New York City, London, New York, New Delhi, Washington
Bank of America strategist says it's time to get bearish
  + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
As stocks pull back from all-time highs, a top Bank of America strategist warned investors to be cautious, citing a series of economic indicators that have historically signaled the end of a rally. "Historically, whenever the unemployment rate has started to rise, it has never gone down again. The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.1% in June , tied for the highest level since October 2021. The strategist added that such conditions typically lead to higher risk premiums and lower asset prices, especially given the current elevated market levels. The Bank of America strategist also expressed concern about consumer confidence, which he described as "collapsing."
Persons: Sebastian Raedler, Raedler, Hani Redha, Redha, Peter Lynch Organizations: Bank of America, . Treasury, University of Michigan, Pine, Investments Locations: U.S
He's steering clear of Big Tech stocks, and for now he's only bullish on "dull, boring, and predictable" names. Tech stocks now account for highest portion of the S&P 500 since the early 2000s, according to an analysis from Société Générale. AdvertisementAnother risk to stocks lies in interest rates, Blain said, as borrowing costs look poised to stay higher for longer. "There is an awful lot of people in the financial markets who just don't understand that zero interest rates and ultra-low interest rates are not normal," Blain added. AdvertisementThe final risk Blain is eyeing is the upcoming presidential election, which contains a handful of uncertainties that could batter stocks, Blain said.
Persons: Bill Blain, Blain isn't, , that's, Blain, Biden, he's, Générale, John Hussman, I've, eyeing, We've, Morgan Stanley, Stifel, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Big Tech, Service, China, Nasdaq, Tech, stoke, Richard Bernstein Advisors
Spot ether ETFs could launch as soon as July 22, reports say. Wall Street has issued a range of outlooks on how the world's second-largest cryptocurrency will move once the ETFs launch. The bank expects these funds to drive $15 billion to $45 billion worth of ether inflows in a 12-month window. Bulls derived their confidence from how bitcoin behaved after its spot ETFs launch in January. They noted bitcoin's first-mover advantage and stressed that the ether token offers functionality that wouldn't be accessible through the ETFs, thus limiting demand.
Persons: , bitcoin, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, CoinDesk, Rachel Lin, Alex Kuptsikevich Organizations: Street, Service, Securities and Exchange Commission, Chartered, Bulls, JPMorgan, Citi, Steno, Reuters, Galaxy Digital, ETH, Business
Elliot has observed hedge funds expressing bullishness on the dollar in two main ways. Hedge funds are also taking long positions in exchange-traded funds specific to sectors likely to benefit from a loosening of regulatory constraints. In response, Elliot says hedge funds are moving into short positions on long-duration bonds, which is five years or more. Finally, given the rising uncertainty around inflation and deficit spending, hedge funds have shifted to increasing their positions in gold by buying gold futures contracts, he said. These contracts set up agreements on the purchase of a predetermined amount of gold at a set price by a set date.
Persons: Bob Elliott, Elliot Organizations: Service, Federal, Trump, Republican Locations: Washington
Bearish investor Mark Spitznagel predicts stocks could soon lose over half their value in a steep sell-off. His fund, Universa Investments, has made billions from past stock market crises. AdvertisementBlack Swan investor Mark Spitznagel says the stock market is heading for a historic sell-off, reiterating an uber-bearish warning for investors who are getting comfortable with steady stock gains amid the frenzy for AI. Spitznagel said the years-long rally in the stock market amounts to the "greatest bubble in human history" in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal. He made billions during the 2008 stock market crash, the 2015 Flash Crash, and at the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020.
Persons: Mark Spitznagel, , Spitznagel, it's, he's Organizations: Universa Investments, Service, Wall Street, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Universa
And to him, AI doesn't exhibit the signs of a truly groundbreaking innovation like the ones he's seen before. AdvertisementAI comes with a trillion-dollar price tagIt's no secret that AI technology isn't cheap. Advertisement"A lot of people say, 'Well, we'll be able to replace call centers with AI,'" Covello said. However, once it encounters unfamiliar situations outside its training set, AI doesn't have the ability to reason like humans do. If AI doesn't actually have the ability to conduct higher-order reasoning, it won't leave a trillion-dollar impact on the economy.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs's Jim Covello, Covello, Goldman Sachs, it's, buildout, we'll, Tesla, who've Organizations: Service, Business, Investors, Nvidia, Amazon, CVS, Big Tech Locations: Netherlands
Analyst Mauricio Serna also raised his price target to $20 from $13, indicating 57.6% upside potential from where shares closed on Thursday. Barclays also lowered its price target to $47 from $55, indicating 11.4% downside from Thursday's close. Analyst Benjamin Swinburne has a $780 price target on shares, indicating shares could rise 20% from Thursday's close. Cahall raised his price target to $758 from $726, suggesting nearly 18% upside potential from the stock's close price on Thursday. His new price target of $190, up from $107, implies upside of 20% from Thursday's close.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mauricio Serna, Serna, — Hakyung Kim, Barclays downgrades Molson Coors, Lauren Lieberman, BUD YTD, Hakyung Kim, Benjamin Swinburne, Swinburne, Doug Anmuth, Anmuth, Wells, Steven Cahall, Cahall, Arm Holdings Morgan Stanley, Lee Simpson, Simpson, GenAI, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Netflix, Arm Holdings, UBS, Barclays downgrades, Barclays, bearish, Molson Coors, NFLX's, Holdings, ARM Locations: Serna, Thursday's, Wells Fargo
Oil drops on weak sentiment, set for weekly decline
  + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices ticked higher on Thursday, buoyed by a bigger-than-expected weekly decline in U.S. crude stocks. Oil prices fell on Friday, setting up for a second weekly decline, as mixed economic signals weighed on investor sentiment and boosted the dollar. Brent crude prices fell by 51 cents, or 0.6%, to $84.50 a barrel by 0035 GMT. "Crude oil was under pressure amid a broader risk-off tone across markets," Hynes said. Oil prices found some support in the prior two sessions after the U.S. government reported a bigger-than-expected weekly decline in oil stockpiles.
Persons: Daniel Hynes, Hynes, Brent, WTI, FGE Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, U.S, ANZ, Reuters
It's time to consider downside targets for A.I.-darling Nvidia. The first half of 2024 was all about stocks like Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) riding the A.I. On the short-term chart of NVDA, we can see a series of bearish engulfing patterns in mid-June and again in mid-July. And when the price returned to that price range earlier this month, we saw the same pattern of short-term distribution. This support level also lines up with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April to June rally phase, and also lines up with the 50-day moving average.
Persons: I'd, David Keller Organizations: A.I, Nvidia Corp, Nvidia, Nasdaq, CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
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