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Only a decade ago, bank runs happened at a much slower pace. The era of digital bank runsOne thing the past few weeks has made clear is that bank runs now unfold differently, especially for smaller banks that service specialized sectors. "Bank runs are evolving into a different and much more dangerous beast because they happen faster," Baker said. By comparison, on March 9, SVB lost $42 billion in a day — and it was a smaller bank, Baker added. Long said she warned regulators again after FTX collapsed that banks servicing the crypto sector face the danger of bank runs.
Bitcoin's market dominance has been climbing in March and is now up to levels not seen since June. Investors use it to determine which parts of the crypto market are outperforming or underperforming relative to their peers. When bitcoin dominance climbs, it implies that bitcoin is doing well, but more specifically, it means its outperforming altcoins. Bitcoin dominance has risen steadily since March 8, the day after Silvergate Bank announced its voluntary liquidation. "That's reflecting a view that a lot of macro investors have, that we're either at or very near the bottom of this macro cycle."
Mark Szemeszki returned 380% last year by getting into the oil trade and by shorting bitcoin. On a recent podcast, Szemeszki shared the macroeconomic indicators he tracks for his trades. He also explained why he's currently 100% in cash — but why shorting altcoins could soon make sense. But whenever an occasion arises where this correlation inverts, he'll short altcoins as their prices begin to relatively increase. "I always try to position it so even though in the short term I may not be right, in the long term I will be right eventually," he explained.
As my colleague Matthew Fox writes, the stock market has been completely flipped upside down so far in 2023. This is the type of trading behavior you'd expect to see when interest rates are closer to 0% than 5%. To Kolanovic, the errant investor behavior foreshadows a plunge in the stock market. US stock futures fall early Tuesday, as investors stay worried that persistent inflation means interest rates will stay higher for longer. SoFi's Liz Young warned that a lack of reserve funds could stop this year's stock market rally: "What the equity market is not pricing in at this point, or is not worried enough about, is consumer spending."
Chartmaker Forrest Przybysz shared his 2023 price outlook for bitcoin and ether. Here are four altcoins that Przybysz is most optimistic about with bitcoin at risk of falling. In other words, while Przybysz's charts also indicate that ether could fall 20%, the token's potential upside of 57% is double that of bitcoin. Ether is trading above technical support but could rise substantially. Forrest Przybysz, Sistine ResearchDespite their strong showings so far this year, bitcoin and ether are still about 64% below their all-time highs.
Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, said Tuesday that bitcoin's rally in the new year doesn't look sustainable. "The positive development is that it has rallied enough to give folks an exit," Stockton said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." BTC.CB= 1Y mountain Bitcoin Stockton said a slow grind higher would be more bullish for bitcoin and other altcoins. "So we're skeptical as to the sustainability of this rally, which we are still viewing as countertrend," Stockton said. Meanwhile, the chart analyst said there are oversold conditions in place, but they've been in place for many months now.
Bitcoin's price has rallied, up by 30% since its December low. This reduces the number of new coins being created, which tightens supply and kicks up demand, sending bitcoin's price spiking. He added that a real bull rally will only kick off within six months of the next bitcoin halving. Since market trading volume has been low relative to 2021, it doesn't take much to push the market in any direction, he said. Bitcoin's price plunged by 3.4% that afternoon before slightly recovering on Thursday.
Presumably writing from his parents' $4 million property in Palo Alto, California near Stanford, Sam Bankman-Fried published a lengthy newsletter yesterday, titled "FTX Pre-Mortem Overview." One statement stood out to me: "I didn't steal funds, and I certainly didn't stash billions away." In the note, Bankman-Fried highlighted that both FTX and Alameda Research were raking in billions in profits in 2021. A key to the collapse, he explained, was 2022's crypto bear market that left just about every token worth dramatically less than the year prior. Well, Bankman-Fried yesterday outlined two versions of the hedge fund's balance sheet, one from each of the past two years.
Bitcoin balances on crypto exchanges - where retail investors typically transact - have fallen to around 2.3 million from its 2020 all-time high of 3.1 million, exchange Bitfinex said. "There are signs that a significant number of retail investors have been discouraged to the point of exiting crypto entirely," Bitfinex analysts said. DAVID VS GOLIATHCrypto retail investors losing money is nothing new. A study from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), conducted between 2015 and 2022, estimated that 73% to 81% likely lost money on their investments in cryptocurrencies. Eloisa Marchesoni, a trader who said she had about $2,000 on FTX she was unable to withdraw, is sure crypto will retain its attraction for smaller investors.
Crypto products and funds saw inflows of $44 million, as of the week ended Nov. 18, but 75% of those flows represented investments in short crypto products, data showed. The total assets under management have plunged to $22 billion, the lowest in two years, CoinShares said. FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States more than a week ago in the highest-profile crypto implosion to date. CoinShares data also showed that bitcoin posted inflows of $14 million, but when offset by inflows into short investment products, the net flows were a negative $4.3 million. Investors poured in record inflows to short-Ethereum products of $14 million.
John Haar, a managing director at digital asset services platform Swan Bitcoin, previously had a 12-year stint at Goldman Sachs. He says bitcoin is the biggest contender to gain traction in legacy finance and pull institutional interest in further. Investors saw the first wave of institutional interest in crypto through bitcoin as well. First, the value prop of bitcoin, Haar says, is the concept of "sound money," a currency that isn't prone to a sudden depreciation or appreciation in value. "I think Bitcoin is an easier sell, but I think we're still very early in terms of them potentially getting on board.
A survey conducted by the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA), showed that about one-third of traditional hedge funds are investing in digital assets. Approximately one-third of the panel discussions revolved around digital assets, according to SkyBridge Capital's Anthony Scaramucci. And while some funds may still be grappling with the question of how much exposure they should allocate to digital assets, Scaramucci is pedaling forward. Long term, he believes in the appreciation of digital assets, and he's willing to pay the price of absorbing the volatility in the meantime. The pivot to digital assetsSkyBridge has pivoted heavily into crypto and blockchain technology from its traditional hedge fund of funds business.
The crypto bear market is likely to continue if bitcoin confirms its recent breakdown below $20,000, according to Fairlead Strategies. "Negative long-term momentum is growing per the monthly MACD histogram, allowing long-term oversold conditions to be absorbed. "Short-term momentum has shifted negative per a new daily MACD 'sell' signal, increasing risk as long-term support is tested." Another bad sign for the crypto market as a whole is the fact that bitcoin is once again outperforming ether on a relative basis since early September. Until then, expect the crypto bear market to continue.
The crypto market has dominated headlines as the currency generated stellar returns. Since I was buying crypto in the UK, the process is slightly different than in the US. "eToro Wallet acts as the gateway between the eToro investment platform and the blockchain," said an eToro spokesperson in an email. Crypto needs a bear marketSo with $9.94 of hard-earned cash still sitting in my eToro account, I am left with a bitter taste in my mouth. Some of the most well-regarded crypto products in today's market, such as the FTX exchange and solana, were built in the last crypto winter.
But candidates and political committees are increasingly open to accepting bitcoin and altcoins. Are you a political candidate or lead a political committee and accept cryptocurrency? If the price of bitcoin goes up while a political committee is in possession of it, the committee may legally profit. While the FEC expressly says political committees may accept up to $100 worth of bitcoin, it's silent on whether it's legal for committees to accept more. Here are 25 federal political candidates and political committees that have, of late, led the way into the uncertain realm of cryptocurrency and elections.
Welcome to this weekly roundup of Investing stories from deputy editor Joe Ciolli. Yuriko Nakao/Getty ImagesHello and welcome to Insider Investing. I'm Joe Ciolli, and I'm here to guide you through the current market and investing landscape. Here's what's on the docket:If you aren't yet a subscriber to Insider Investing, you can sign up here. Dason ThomasDason Thomas says he began mining crypto in his garage to earn altcoins like doge and litecoin.
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