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☆ JPMorgan drops its recession call for the first half and now sees a 55% chance of a soft landing for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan scrapped its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and now sees 55% odds of a soft landing. The bank sees a 30% chance that global expansion persists without major policy easing. AdvertisementJPMorgan has backed off from its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and says it now sees a 55% chance of a "soft landing" for the global economy through late next year. Related storiesBut now, with upbeat data painting a rosier picture, the bank sees a 55% chance of a soft landing scenario extending through at least the end of next year. On the earnings side, corporates in developed markets surpassed expectations last year, with margins holding close to record highs, demonstrating surprisingly resilient profitability despite high policy rates.

Persons: —, Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton, Kasman, Lupton, Jamie Dimon, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service

☆ Small business sentiment is the lowest in over a decade as inflation proves sticky
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Confidence among US small business owners is at an 11-year low, according to NFIB. High inflation, coupled with hiring woes and tight financial conditions, have dealt a blow to business. AdvertisementUS small business owners' confidence slumped to its lowest level in 11 years in March amid escalating inflationary pressures and sluggish sales expectations, according to the National Federation of Independent Business. The small business optimism index dropped to 88.5, hitting its lowest since December 2012, per NFIB's latest report. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, It's Organizations: Service, National Federation of Independent Business, Business

☆ The stock market is sending retirement account balances soaring. Here's why experts say retirees still need to tread carefully.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stellar stock-market returns have boosted Americans' retirement account balances. The number of 401(k) millionaires is up and average account balances are the highest in two years. Markets are volatileInvesting experts also caution against the belief that the market will keep producing strong returns year after year. Markets are up big (+20%) or negative nearly two-thirds of the time whereas 'average' returns (0-20%) only happen about a third of the time," Anderson wrote. Future uncertainty often brings a "sequence of returns risk" that's overlooked by early retirees.

Persons: —, Brian Spinelli, Halbert Hargrove, Aaron Anderson, Spinelli, Stocks, Anderson, boomers Organizations: Service, Fidelity, Fisher Investments

☆ How China has helped Russia and Iran evade Western sanctions, according to a think tank
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

China has helped Russia and Iran sidestep Western sanctions on their oil exports, says the think tank Atlantic Council. Critics say that China aids Russia solely to protect its own interests. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementRussia and Iran's successful workarounds of the West's sanctions on their oil exports largely hinge on the contributions of China, economic think tank the Atlantic Council wrote in a new report. As the two countries face escalating sanctions from the US-led alliance, Beijing has created an alternative market for their restricted oil.

Persons: —, Iran's Organizations: Atlantic Council, Service, Business Locations: China, Russia, Iran, Beijing

☆ Trump's proposed tariff would cost the average American household an extra $1,500 a year, left-leaning think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Trump's proposed import tariff would cost an extra $1,500 annually for Americans, according to a left-leaning think tank. Trump has championed his tax plan as favoring US interests over China, but the think tank argues he misunderstands tariffs. AdvertisementTrump's proposed import tariff would tack on an extra $1,500 per year for Americans, says a left-leaning Washington think tank. AdvertisementThe think tank estimated Americans will face a whopping $3.2 trillion influx of foreign goods. With a 10% tariff, that'd be an extra $300 billion in taxes on goods, roughly translating into $1,700 per household in the tariff's debut year.

Persons: Trump's, Trump, —, Brendan Duke, Ryan Mulholland Organizations: American Progress, Service, White, Republican Locations: China, Washington

☆ Ships carrying Russian diesel are idling off of Brazil in the latest hold-up for Moscow's energy flows
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Over 3.7 million barrels of Russian diesel are sitting on ships idling in waters near Brazil, Bloomberg reports. Though reasons are unclear, it marks the latest delay in Russian energy flows amid sanctions. More Russian ships bound for Brazil are veering off course from their expected routes. AdvertisementTankers loaded with millions of barrels of diesel are drifting along the coast of Brazil, Bloomberg reports, the latest delay in Russia's oil shipments amid the West's sanctions. Bloomberg said Wednesday that vessels carrying over 3.2 million barrels of Russian diesel fuel are languishing in waters off the world's fifth-largest nation, according to data from Kpler.

Persons: — Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Business Locations: Brazil

☆ A third of Gen Z and millennial homebuyers plan to use family money for a down payment amid sky-high housing costs
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

More than a third of Gen Z and millennial homebuyers anticipate their families to help with the cost, Redfin says. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementNearly half of Gen Zers and millennials say they aren't keen on buying homes soon due to sky-high prices. "The bigger problem is that young Americans who don't have family money are often shut out of homeownership.

Persons: Gen Z, Redfin, —, Z, Zers, Daryl Fairweather, they're, " Fairweather Organizations: Service Locations: America

☆ Housing affordability has improved, but not by much
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The last time the typical household earned more than the median-priced home was in February 2021. AdvertisementMortgage rates have eased from multi-decade highs hit late last year, but housing affordability hasn't improved much in 2024. "For over a decade, America has been slowly marching toward a housing affordability crisis due to chronic underbuilding, and that crisis was kicked into overdrive when the pandemic homebuying boom fueled a meteoric rise in housing prices," said Redfin senior economist Elijah de la Campa. On the flip side, buyers in Anaheim, California were hit by the nation's biggest housing affordability crunch, as they needed 20% more income compared to the previous year. The median home price has climbed twice as much as the 6% rise in median household income over the past year.

Persons: Redfin, —, It's, Elijah de la, Campa Organizations: Service Locations: America, San Antonio , Texas, Anaheim , California

☆ US reindustrialization will be the top investment theme of coming decades, RBA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The "US industrial renaissance" will be the top investment theme of the coming decade, Richard Bernstein Advisors said. The trend of American companies shifting away from dependence on foreign labor and supply chains should dominate investment strategies in the coming decades the firm said. "The market is already rewarding the beneficiaries of this capital reallocation, but we expect years, if not decades, of further performance from this critical investment theme," RBA president Richard Bernstein said in a note this week. For the US, that means big investment in infrastructure on manufacturing will be needed in the coming years as the world reorients. "The market has already recognized the re-industrialization investment theme despite investors' myopia with respect to more exciting technology-related themes, like artificial intelligence.

Persons: Richard Bernstein, Overreliance, Bernstein, — Organizations: Richard Bernstein Advisors, Service, Republicans Locations: America

☆ Why a recession is 4 times more likely than an economic expansion this year, according to economist David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewEconomist David Rosenberg has been sounding the recession alarm in recent months, and he now thinks that the likelihood is much greater that the US sees a contraction this year. The head of Rosenberg Research said he believes that a recession is four times more likely than an economic expansion, and it's just a matter of time as more signals kick in until the recession narrative comes back into focus. [H]istorically, when that's happening, unless it's an aberration, you have a four times greater chance of being in a recession than in an expansion. I think the recession narrative is going to come back, you know, in a, in a fuller view," Rosenberg said. And what that's telling you is that it's getting tougher and tougher for the backlog of unemployed to find a new job," he said.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg wasn't, Christopher Columbus, Isabella Ferdinand, it's, Rosenberg, They've Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, CNBC Locations: United States

☆ Bitcoin is poised to climb above $80,000 as investors pile into ETFs, Binance CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bitcoin is set to top $80,000 on strong ETF inflows, Binance CEO Richard Teng said. After hitting a record high of $73,679 early last week, bitcoin tumbled back below $70,000. The boss of the world's biggest crypto exchange, Richard Teng, said he now sees the crypto poised to jump past $80,000 after initially predicting it would end the year around that level. Related storiesHe acknowledged that volatility would still shake the world's biggest crypto and that the uptrend won't be a "straight line." AdvertisementBitcoin soared to its record high of $73,679 last week.

Persons: Richard Teng, bitcoin, —, We're, Teng, Kris Marszalek Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, CNBC Locations: Bangkok

☆ Here's what bitcoin experts see ahead for the world's biggest cryptocurrency
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-17 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The narrative on bitcoin is still bullish, though commentators see more volatility ahead. Bernstein analysts wrote this week that the rally firms up their view that bitcoin is on track to hit $150,000 by mid-2025. Here's what some of the market's top commentators have said about the outlook for the world's most popular cryptocurrency. Related stories"We built bitcoin institutional flows in our estimates to arrive at bitcoin price. Saylor said that following the bitcoin halving in April, dwindling supplies would continue to fuel demand, propelling the price momentum even higher, saying "the natural sellers are the miners."

Persons: Bitcoin, Bernstein, —, Kris Marszalek, Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Michael Novogratz, Jamie Dimon, He's, Michael Saylor, Saylor Organizations: Service, CNBC, Galaxy, Galaxy Digital, Wednesday, JPMorgan JPMorgan, Australian Financial

☆ Moscow's ties to Beijing are paying off as Russian firms flourish amid lucrative deals with China
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Some Russian companies are seeing their business boom thanks to trade with China, Reuters reported. Analysts warn of China's potential losses if sanctions extend to companies there that do business with Russia. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . As China buys more Russian energy supplies, Chinese companies are supplying Russian firms with machinery and vehicles, Reuters said. AdvertisementStill, experts warn of underlying risks in Russia's economic reliance on China, as China may have much to lose if sanctions extend to domestic companies.

Persons: —, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov Organizations: Reuters, Service, China, Volkswagen, Renault, Chery Locations: China, Beijing, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow

☆ Russia is eyeing big tax hikes after this month's election to pay for the war in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Putin could raise taxes on high earners and companies after the country's election, Bloomberg reported. More tax revenue would pay for the war in Ukraine and fund some social programs. AdvertisementVladimir Putin could raise taxes after the presidential election this month to keep the money flowing to pay for the country's war in Ukraine. Russia's hefty spending on the Ukraine war since February 2022 is siphoning resources from the broader economy, with a 7.4% inflation rate and collapsing direct investment. Economists have warned that the country's economy cannot sustain the costs of either winning or losing the war in Ukraine.

Persons: Putin, —, Vladimir Putin, outflows Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Bloomberg Economics, Kremlin, Finance Ministry Locations: Ukraine, Russian

☆ Most homeowners and renters say housing prices will factor into their vote for president, Redfin survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Over half of US owners and renters said housing prices will inform their vote for president, Redfin said. Soaring mortgage rates and prices have made it hard for Americans to buy property. President Biden recently unveiled proposals to boost housing affordability in the US. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . February saw mortgage rates inch back up, reversing course after a period of declines as markets adjusted expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Persons: Redfin, Biden, —, Daryl Fairweather Organizations: Service, Qualtrics, Federal Reserve Locations: November's

☆ 'Porous' sanctions haven't stopped Russia's war, but there's still more the West can do to squeeze its economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-10 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

According to Peach, sanctions haven't halted money from non-Western countries flowing to Russia. Even G7's bid to curb export income through a $60 per barrel cap on the price of oil hasn't really hobbled Moscow's oil trade. The West has reduced imports of Russian energy significantly but Russia has largely re-routed oil exports to Asia." Peach wrote that the West could squeeze Russian energy more by slapping secondary sanctions on third-party purchases of oil and gas from the country. AdvertisementBut it's unlikely for the West to take this path, he added, given Russia's energy dominance and the risk of sparking volatility that could end up antagonizing partners like India.

Persons: —, Vladimir Putin, Owen Matthews ,, Putin, Liam Peach, Peach, Matthews, Russia mobilizes Organizations: Service, Business, Capital Economics, Export, Central Bank of Russia, Russia, China Goods Trade, SA Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Nord, Turkey, UAE, Asia, Europe, Russian, China, Dubai, American, India

☆ Pharmaceutical companies behind weight-loss drugs are slimming down a new target: The Magnificent 7
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at pharma companies' surging stocks and threatening tech darlings thanks to their weight-loss drugs. And it comes despite only 1% of US adults taking weight-loss drugs, according to Bank of America , which predicts that number could rise to 15% by 2035. Weight-loss drugs are also cutting more than just fat. For Wall Street, meanwhile, the equation is much simpler: Getting more people on weight-loss drugs boosts the economy. The trend, which will be powered by cash-rich mega-cap tech companies, is thanks to strong earnings growth, the bank said.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, Donald Trump —, Trump, Zhan, Eli Lilly, Tesla, Hannah Latham, Octavio Jones, Christian Rodriguez, Laura MacPherson, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, they're, Goldman Sachs, Biden, Barry Sternlicht, Fernando Gutierrez, It's, Elon Musk, TikTok, Pete Ryan, RJ Scaringe, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, pharma, Business, Tesla, Microsoft, JPMorgan, Pfizer, Novo Nordisk, Bank of America, Nvidia, Companies, Fed, Infrastructure Investment, Alpha, Commission, Elon, EV, Nike, Congress, White, Meta, SXSW Locations: China, US, New York, London

☆ Americans are paying nearly as much interest on credit cards and other debt as they are on their mortgages
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Americans are paying almost as much interest on credit cards and other debt as they are on mortgages. Nearly equal debt service costs haven't been seen in any of the data stretching back to the 70s. Homeowners have locked in low rates, but other debt has become more costly as interest rates rise. AdvertisementNew data reveals that Americans are spending nearly as much on interest payments for credit cards and other kinds of consumer debt as they are on mortgage interest. The average American debt load hit $104,215 in the fourth quarter of 2023, fueled by $12.25 trillion in mortgage debt.

Persons: haven't, —, Fitch Organizations: Homeowners, Service, US, of, U.S . Bureau

☆ China's big market drop shouldn't lure investors, with the country facing a decade of slowing growth, Goldman Sachs wealth CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors shouldn't return to China, no matter how cheap it appears, Goldman Sachs Wealth Management CIO said. The CIO said China's reported 5.2% growth in 2023 should be considered "not real." "All our clients are asking us that question, given how cheap China appears, people inevitably say, well, has it discounted the worst news?" Mossavar-Rahmani added that there is skepticism around China's 5.2% growth last year, adding that it is likely "it was actually a lot weaker." "We really don't have a good grasp of what growth was last year, or what growth will be this year."

Persons: Goldman, China's, —, Sharmin, Rahmani Organizations: Goldman Sachs Wealth Management, Service, Goldman Sachs Wealth, Bloomberg Locations: China

☆ The office market is in trouble. Here's what real estate experts say all that space could be used for instead.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The reality facing office owners has many of them thinking about office-to-residential conversions, a move also echoed by the Biden administration as a way to alleviate the housing shortage. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. "You do see some office buildings right now that over the last 20 years have taken a part of their building like the low-rise and converted it to a hotel," he said. In less common cases, office owners in places like Los Angeles are pivoting their private buildings to film post-production sets. AdvertisementMedical offices are also options for landlords, Paynter said.

Persons: —, it's, Biden, Goldman Sachs, Mike Watts, Watts, Steven Paynter, Paynter, Todd Henderson Organizations: Service, Business, DWS Group Locations: Watts, Austin, Los Angeles

☆ Why the productivity gains from AI won't be able to prevent a recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewAs the artificial intelligence-powered stock market rally pushes on, proponents of the technology have posited that it could help ward off a recession that forecasters are calling for. According to David Rosenberg, economist and president of Rosenberg Research, don't get your hopes up. AI won't change the trajectory of the business cycle enough to prevent a downturn. The stock market is not the economy," Rosenberg added.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, IMB, Let's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, American, Devices, Intel

☆ The US housing market added $2 trillion in value last year, boosted by a nationwide shortage of homes for sale
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US residential market added $2.4 trillion in value last year, listings site Redfin said. AdvertisementThe housing market in the US added $2.4 trillion last year, jumping to $47.5 trillion. Though housing demand has been dampened by stubbornly high mortgage rates, the total value of the market climbed by 5.3% from December 2022, preliminary data released by Redfin on Wednesday showed. Pandemic-era mortgage rates fell below 3%, driving a frenzy of buying in 2020 and 2021. The combination of elevated mortgage rates, high home prices and a limited pool of homes for sale means homeownership is about as unaffordable as ever.

Persons: Redfin, —, aren't, Chen Zhao Organizations: Service Locations: Redfin, New York City, New Jersey, Midwest, Milwaukee, Grand Rapids, New York, Honolulu , Riverside, Denver

☆ 3 rate cuts in 2024 would be a 'surprise,' former Fed president Thomas Hoenig says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Former Fed president Thomas Hoenig said he'd be surprised if officials deliver three rate cuts in 2024. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Hoenig also said that a preemptive rate cut to curb a potential recession wouldn't be the right move, even in the face of regional bank stress and commercial real estate turmoil. The recent rise in inflation has flipped the script on earlier predictions of rate cuts coming as early as March. Optimistic market forecasters are placing the first rate cut sometime in the middle of this year, while others say the Fed may not cut until well into the second half or even keep rates high through all of 2024.

Persons: Thomas Hoenig, he'd, —, Hoenig, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Reserve, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Federal, Market Locations: Kansas

☆ Wall Street's favorite recession gauge has been flashing for 16 months, but the other key ingredient of a downturn is nowhere to be seen
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A key recession signal has been flashing for 16 months, but the other half of a downturn is missing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The firm pointed out that the spread between the 10-year and three-month treasury yields has been inverted for 16 months. Advertisement10-year minus 3-month Treasury yields from 1982 Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThat said, the inverted curve only accounts for 50% of a solid recession call. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Ellen Zentner, warned that a "hard landing" downturn is guaranteed as the impact of Fed rate hikes still hasn't been felt fully throughout the economy.

Persons: —, Louis That, Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner Organizations: Service, DataTrek Research, Treasury, Reserve Bank of St, Fed, JPMorgan Locations: downturns, Kuwait

☆ Jamie Dimon says the US can avoid a commercial real estate crisis if the economy sticks a soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said commercial property distress likely won't reach crisis levels. But the CEO dismissed analysts' estimates of 70%-80% odds of a "soft landing," saying he predicts "half of that." NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementJamie Dimon said the distress in the US commercial property sector won't become a full-blown crisis, and will only deteriorate if the US hits a recession.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, — Organizations: Service, JPMorgan Chase, CNBC, Business

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