Assessing the risk/reward bargain for the market heading into 2023 comes down to whether this stickiness seems more like resilience that demands respect or complacence which advises caution. And, by extension, it means making a judgment about whether the now-prevailing view that a recession awaits by mid-2023 is both correct and not yet priced into financial markets. Here is how the valuation of the Nasdaq 100, the S & P 500 and the equal-weighted version of the S & P 500 has shifted since then. Even now, the current setup fits no one's definition of a cheap equity market enjoying a fat margin of safety. Yet not many market handicappers are deploying this argument as a reason to herald brighter times in 2023.

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