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☆ Morning Bid: Elusive peaks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Unlike much of last year, the rates market is now inclined to believe the central bank on the direction of travel. And implied year-end rates are as high as 5.12% - almost half a point higher than where the current rate sits. Two-year Treasury yields hit a three-month high at 4.72% on Friday, with 10-year yields at 3-month peaks too - homing in on 4% for the first time since November. So as impressive as this week's stock market resilience had been to the new inflation and rates environment, it appears to be buckling again already. Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* U.S. Jan import and export prices, leading indicator.

"Markets are priced for perfection," Schnabel, the head of the ECB's market operations, told Bloomberg. Money markets now show investors betting on a peak ECB rate at around 3.75% by late summer, up from levels around 3.4% earlier this month, as a string of hawkish ECB comments in recent days unwound earlier bets. He and fellow board member Fabio Panetta said the impact of many of the ECB's rate hikes so far had yet to be felt by the economy, with the latter calling for "small steps" going forward. The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points this month and pre-announced another increase of the same size for March 16. But it kept an open mind about future moves, with most policymakers expecting another rate hike in May.

☆ Sell-off fizzles out ahead of Fed, ECB and BoE speeches
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. Then comes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington during U.S. trading plus U.S. President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. DEADLY QUAKEAmong the main commodities, oil jumped for a second straight session driven by optimism about recovering demand in China, and after Monday's devastating earthquake in Turkey had shut down one of the region's major oil export terminals. "Equities have had a strong run since the start of the year so seeing an air pocket emerge now is no major surprise." Additional reporting by Scoot Murdoch in Sydney; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Europe Inc earnings offer market optimists more hope
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Shares in ASML were lower after the results, having rallied recently to hit their highest since last April. Helped by strong orders in Europe, French train maker Alstom (ALSO.PA) posted an 8% rise in third-quarter sales. While it is still early in the corporate earnings season, the results offer some hope that recent economic data which has buoyed equities this month is grounded in reality. Swiss asset manager GAM (GAMH.S) meanwhile warned on profits after experiencing negative asset flows, knocking its shares 2.5% lower in early morning trading. ($1 = 0.8115 pounds)Reporting by Reuters newsroom; Writing by Josephine Mason; Editing by Catherine EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar rises on safe haven bids; yen regains footing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FILE PHOTO: A U.S. hundred dollar bill and Japanese 10,000 yen notes are seen in this photo illustration in Tokyo, February 28, 2013. The fresh wave of risk aversion - compounded by news of job cuts by tech giants Microsoft and Amazon - also kept the dollar in bid. The euro was last 0.39% lower at 138.58 yen, while sterling fell 0.23% to 158.27 yen, as markets continued to test the resolve of the BOJ’s ultra-dovish stance. “While there’s still high expectations for a policy shift ... I think that will keep the yen pretty elevated in the near term.”Elsewhere, the kiwi fell 0.31% to $0.6425.

☆ U.S. dollar advances vs major currencies as risk appetite fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The earlier sell-off in the dollar came after the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates. In afternoon trading, the U.S. currency rose against the commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars, which sensitive to risk appetite. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to US$0.6936, after hitting its highest since August last year. In Japan, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The dollar rose as much as 2.7% to 131.58 yen before gains were pared.

☆ Davos 2023-ECB rates could peak by summer, Villeroy says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

FRANKFURT, Jan 18 (Reuters) - European Central Bank interest rates could peak by the summer, French Central Bank Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau told a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The ECB's 2% deposit rate is almost certain to rise to 2.5% next month and markets see it peaking at around 3.2% by July, a downgrade compared to the 3.5% priced by investors at the start of this month. Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Jon BoyleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Davos 2023: ECB's Villeroy says inflation battle not yet won, rate guidance stands
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank has yet to win its fight against sky high inflation so its guidance for big rate hikes in the months ahead remains valid, French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday. "We must stay the course in our battle against inflation; it's not yet won," Villeroy told a World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting panel in Davos. Villeroy appeared to dismiss this, saying that ECB President Christine Lagarde's guidance for a 50 basis point move in February and possibly at subsequent meetings remain valid. Headline inflation could peak in the first half of 2023, followed by underlying price growth, and overall inflation could fall to the ECB's 2% target by late 2024 or early 2025, he said. Villeroy was also relatively optimistic on growth, arguing that a recession, part of the ECB's baseline forecast, could be avoided given recent indicators.

☆ Morning Bid: BOJ goes for broke
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SYDNEY, Jan 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Global bond markets breathed a sigh of relief and U.S. 10-year yields eased 8 basis points to 3.48%. The BOJ will continue to buy bonds in whatever amount necessary to maintain its target for 10-year JGB yields at zero. It was unclear how meaningful this change would be, but the BOJ's defiant stance did see 10-year JGB yields backtrack to 0.36% from an early high of 0.51%. Analysts still suspect the BOJ will again have to buy a record amount of JGBs this month to maintain the ceiling.

☆ Euro zone inflation rate slides to 9.2% as energy price surge cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation in Europe has been impacted by higher energy prices and supply shortages. Inflation in the euro zone dropped for a second consecutive month in December, but analysts do not expect it to spark a change in tone from the European Central Bank. It follows November's headline inflation rate of 10.1%, which represented the first slight contraction in prices since June 2021. At the time, the central bank forecast an average inflation rate of 8.4% for 2022, 6.3% for 2023 and 3.4% for 2024. Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Germany, said these numbers "are not a relief, yet, only a reminder that euro zone inflation is still mainly an energy price phenomenon."

[1/2] The European Central Bank (ECB) building is seen from a cafe amid Christmas decorations, before the monthly news conference following the ECB's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany December 15, 2022. Formed in October, Meloni's government is also holding out on ratifying the euro zone's bailout fund. INFLATION TARGETECB policymakers from across the euro zone defended the bank's decision-making on Friday. Estonian governor Madis Mueller said rates would probably need to rise more than markets had expected so far, while Finnish central bank chief Olli Rehn said 50 bps hikes were likely at each of its next two meetings. Inflation in Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy, is likely to be higher than earlier thought while economic growth will be weaker with a recession next year now certain, the Bundesbank said on Friday.

☆ Euro zone bond yields jump a day after hawkish ECB
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Dec 16 (Reuters) - Euro zone borrowing costs rose on Friday as investors revised their forecasts for bond yields after the European Central Bank pledged further monetary tightening to fight inflation. Germany's 10-year government bond yield , the benchmark of the bloc, touched 2.208% on Friday, its highest in a month, and was last up 8 basis points at 2.17%. The gap between 2-year and 10-year yields was at -28.5 bps after briefly hitting its lowest since 1992 at -41.9 bps. The yield spread was at 1 bp after falling into negative territory to as low as -15 bps. Rohan Khanna head of European and UK rates at UBS forecast the Italian-German yield spread in the 200-250 bps range in 2023.

☆ European Central Bank set for 50 basis point rate hike on hopes that inflation has peaked
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Quantitative tightening, or QT, could see the ECB shrink its gigantic bond portfolio. "We expect the ECB to raise its policy rates by 50 bp at the December meeting," said Michael Schumacher, an ECB watcher with Natixis, in a recent research note. "We also expect an announcement of Quantitative Tightening next year, though the ECB is unlikely to provide a specific start date at this point." Another hot topic for the ECB's Governing Council, which concludes its meeting Thursday with a press conference, will, of course, be inflation and possible peak inflation. "While Inflation likely peaked in October, we see core inflation lingering above 5% until mid 2023 before trending lower," said Anatoli Annenkov at Societe Generale in a recent research note.

☆ Asia shares pin hopes on China opening, oil rallies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The news helped oil prices firm as OPEC+ nations reaffirmed their output targets ahead of a European Union ban and price caps on Russian crude, which kick off on Monday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.2%, after rallying 3.7% last week to a three-month top. Markets are wagering Fed rates will top out at 5% and the European Central Bank around 2.5%. read moreCentral banks in Australia, Canada and India are all expected to raise their rates at meetings this week. Oil prices bounced after OPEC+ agreed to stick to its oil output targets at a meeting on Sunday.

☆ ECB's Makhlouf expects 50 bps rate hike in December
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Padraic Halpin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

DUBLIN, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in its December meeting, governing council member Gabriel Makhlouf said, while stressing that the rates may have to move into "restrictive territory" next year. Makhlouf told journalists after the speech that the governing council was likely to settle on a 50 bps increase. French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Sunday he favoured a 50 bps increase. We have to be open to policy rates moving into restrictive territory for a period," said Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. "It is premature to be talking about the end-point for policy rates amid the prevailing levels of uncertainty."

☆ ECB's Villeroy says in favour of 50 bp rate hike on Dec. 15
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PARIS, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank should raise interest rates by 50 basis points (bp) on Dec. 15, French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Sunday, reinforcing expectations for the ECB to slow the pace of monetary tightening. While markets now largely price a 50 bp hike after a long-list of policymakers have backed the move, comments from Villeroy, a centrist on the rate-setting Governing Council, suggest the step is all but a done deal. In an interview with France's LCI television, ECB Governing Council member Villeroy also said he expects rate hikes will continue after Dec. 15 and could not say when they would stop. Villeroy said he expects inflation will peak in the first half of next year and then start easing off. Reporting by Geert De Clercq and Balasz Koranyi; Editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB will probably keep raising rates beyond 2% level - Villeroy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TOKYO, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank (ECB) will probably continue to raise interest rates beyond 2%, but "jumbo" rate hikes will not become a new habit, France's central bank chief said in a speech in Tokyo on Tuesday. The ECB has increased rates at its fastest pace on record recently, hiking them by a combined 200 basis points to 1.5% in just three months. Despite that rapid pace, markets still expect the bank to hike rates further to tame sharp, broad-based inflation. We should reach this level by December," French central bank Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in a speech at a business conference in the Japanese capital. "Beyond this level, we will probably continue to raise rates, but we may do so in a more flexible and possibly less rapid manner.

SummarySummary Companies FTX in contact with federal, state, international regulatorsMore than one hundred thousand creditors involved in the bankruptcy case, maybe over one millionBahamas regulator appoints provisional liquidatorsFrench cen. "FTX faced a severe liquidity crisis that necessitated the filing of these cases on an emergency basis last Friday," the court filing stated. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsFTX's bankruptcy case includes more than one hundred thousand creditors, and this number could surpass one million, the filings said. The numbers were disclosed as FTX requested that multiple FTX group companies file one consolidated list of major creditors, rather than separate ones. Canadian crypto exchange Bitvo said on Tuesday it had terminated its deal to be bought by FTX, a deal that had been due to close in the third quarter of this year.

☆ French, German central bank chiefs urge faster pace on EU capital markets union
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

PARIS, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The war in Ukraine, inflation and the energy crisis have made it more important than ever to press ahead with a capital markets union to finance green and digital transitions, the governors of the French and German central banks said on Monday. "Europe is at the heart of the crisis: Russia’s war against Ukraine, energy crunch, inflation. France and Germany have been at loggerheads over the last month and have postponed a summit to try and resolve their differences. The two said it was vital that the 2015 capital markets union (CMU) initiative launched by the European Union needed to press ahead for financial stability to foster the geographical diversification of funding sources and by strengthening private sector risk sharing through the development of equity funding. "Completing the capital markets union is certainly a long-distance run.

☆ An investor with a $1.8 million portfolio says he sees financial crises as the perfect time to invest in stocks — here's his strategy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Leo Ginsburg | Nathan Rennolds | Business Insider Deutschland | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

His total portfolio is worth around $1.8 million. He broke down his investment strategy for Insider and why he saw crises as opportunities. He started investing in the stock market 30 years ago and now has a portfolio worth $1.8 million, he told Insider in an interview. Schäfer told Insider about his investment strategy and how he used financial crises to his advantage. "A nice entry point is when a successful company is experiencing a problem and the stock price halves," Schäfer said.

☆ Morning Bid: Polls and prices
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Chinese stocks continued last week's tentative recovery, however, despite officials throwing cold water on any early end to draconian COVID lockdown policies. Some correction of the market's severe underperformance this year was about the only cogent reason given for the ongoing stock bounce. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB board member Fabio Panetta both speak. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ ECB must not stop rate hikes before core inflation peak, Villeroy says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank must not stop raising interest rates until underlying inflation has clearly peaked, but it may slow the pace of hikes once rates hit a level that starts to restrict growth, France's central bank chief told the Irish Times. The ECB has increased rates by a combined 200 basis points to 1.5% in just three months, its fastest pace of hikes on record. "As long as underlying inflation has not clearly peaked, we shouldn't stop on rates," the newspaper quoted French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau as saying on Monday. Rapid rate hikes have, however, put the ECB close to the so-called neutral rate, an undefined mark seen somewhere between 1.5% and 2%, where the central bank for the 19 countries using the euro is neither stimulating nor slowing growth. Markets now expect a 50 basis point rate hike in December after back-to-back 75 basis point moves, to be followed by another 50 basis point increase in February.

☆ BNP defies French banks’ interest-rate malaise
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A regulated savings rate, with roots tracing back to the French Emperor’s wars of conquest, is one reason why Gallic retail lenders could miss out on an interest-rate windfall that is boosting banks elsewhere. Ironically, 60 billion euro BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) looks set to escape the curse because of some international expansion of its own. One-third of Gallic lenders’ deposits sit in savings vehicles with regulated interest rates, Jefferies analysts reckon. Combined with other interest-rate regulations and the fact that many French mortgage borrowers are on fixed rates, the upshot is that Gallic retail lending margins don’t rise as quickly as they might in Spain or Britain. Chief Executive Jean-Laurent Bonnafé, who is approaching his 11-year anniversary in the role, deserves credit for helping BNP to defy the lending malaise at home.

☆ ECB policymakers stick with hike plans even as recession looms
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. But policymakers on Friday appeared to be on message that rates will keep going up. Investors now see ECB rates peaking at around 2.75%, above levels near 2.5% seen on Thursday after the ECB's rate hike and language tweaks. RECESSIONThe policymakers' reinforcement of the rate hike message comes as a recession now looks almost certain, and will likely prompt a barrage of further criticism from European leaders. But ECB chief Christine Lagarde pushed back on the criticism on Thursday, arguing that breaking inflation was the ECB's chief mission and governments could help by providing targeted support for the most vulnerable.

☆ French economy ekes out meagre growth in Q3, inflation hits record high
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Richard Lough | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

France's economy grew 0.2% in the July-September period, in line with market expectations, preliminary data from the INSEE official statistics agency showed. After two consecutive months of slowing inflation in France that bucked the wider euro zone trend, consumer prices surged in October. Food prices were up 11.8% annually while energy prices soared 19.2%. The data came a day after the European Central Bank raised interest rates again, worried that rapid price growth is becoming entrenched. The outlook for France, remained difficult with inventories likely to make a negative contribution to growth from the next quarter, ING analysts said.

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