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Search resuls for: "The National Federation of Independent Business"


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Stubbornly higher prices across multiple key categories of goods and services are expected to at least keep the inflation rate steady — and possibly even push levels up. That would put the respective annual inflation rates at 5%, essentially unchanged from March , and 5.5%, down just 0.1 percentage point. With inflation rising rapidly around this same time in 2022, the year-over-year comparisons should make the annual rate go down. "We continue to project inflation will ease over the course of the year with the headline CPI inflation dropping considerably in May and June as a result of base effects," UBS economist Jonathan Pringle wrote. April's nonfarm payrolls report also showed that average hourly earnings increased 0.5% on the month and 4.4% annually, both higher than expected.
S&P 500 futures are little changed Monday night as investors readied for key inflation reports due later in the week. S&P 500 futures inched down by 0.05%, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.1%. The S&P 500 finished 0.05% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite ended with a gain of nearly 0.2%. Fox Corp. and Nikola are among companies set to report quarterly earnings before the bell, followed by Airbnb and Rivian after the market closes. Earnings season is beginning to wind down with more than 85% of the stocks in the S&P 500 done reporting.
May 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. If the mood in Asian markets on Tuesday reflects the broader global mood on Monday, there's every reason to expect an increase in risk appetite and risk assets, despite a higher dollar and Treasury yields. But there was no obvious sign of a credit crunch, which fits with recent weekly bank deposit flow and lending data too. Several positioning and sentiment indicators suggest investors are the most gloomy on stocks - especially Wall Street - than they have been in years, even decades. Asian markets appear to be looking at the U.S. banking and debt issues with a 'glass half-full' mentality.
Lending standards, which were already at levels consistent with past recessions, according to several indicators in the most recent 'SLOOS' and NFIB surveys, will only tighten further. Although tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation, recession can still be avoided. A separate NFIB banking survey published this week shows small business owners are not hitting the panic button just yet, but concern is growing. "Small business owners are, not surprisingly, concerned about the stability of the banking system. A strong small business banking system is essential for small business owners to operate and grow their business," Holly Wade, executive director of NFIB's Research Center said.
Washington, DC CNN —Wages are now finally beating inflation, according to the latest quarterly data on wage growth. That was the biggest monthly increase since March 2022, though wage growth had gradually slowed since then. “The folks who left one company and went to another are the ones who are still benefiting from wage growth,” said Morgan Llewellyn, chief data scientist at Jobvite. Part of the continued strength in wage growth largely has to do with employers’ difficulty in hiring, which varies by industry. “Wage growth has still been higher for job changers than job stayers and that suggests that there’s still a shortage of labor for some companies,” said Dawn Fay, operational president at staffing firm Robert Half.
The June hike is now off the table completely, and traders now see a 15% chance of the Fed not raising at all this week or in June. This is significant for the June 14 policy decision because the Fed also releases its new Summary of Economic Projections that day. The deposit flight may have stopped but Fed officials will be acutely aware of the negative feedback loop on the economy, given the deep-rooted linkages between small banks and businesses. The March survey of small businesses by the National Federation of Independent Business showed multiple signs of weakness, and even more attention than usual will fall on the next Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Will the Fed be raising rates on June 14 if this is still a live issue?
Deposits have fled small banks at a record pace, the availability of credit for small businesses is deteriorating rapidly, and these firms are increasingly reluctant to hire workers or expand. The relationship between these thousands of banks and millions of small businesses runs deep, and is critical to the health of the economy at large. And so is wider GDP, when you bear in mind that small businesses account for around 40% of all jobs. Small banks will probably tighten credit standards further, limiting a key source of funding for small businesses - many of which are riskier borrowers and key customers for these banks. "Because small banks are likely to tighten credit more aggressively and small businesses disproportionately borrow from them, the hit to lending to small businesses will likely be larger," they wrote on Monday.
The unemployment rate will start to rise this summer, says Ian Shepherdson. The US economy is already starting to unravel and a recession will arrive as soon as this summer, according to Ian Shepherdson, the founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics. "We expect to see payrolls falling in the summer, pushing up the unemployment rate." Shepherdson pointed to the National Federation of Independent Businesses Hiring Intentions survey as a leading indicator of where the job market is headed. The current unemployment rate of 3.5% still sits near a more than five-decade low.
U.S. stock futures were little changed on Monday night as investors look toward the release of economic data later this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked higher by 29 points, or 0.09%. And that can't be determined until we get those data points start coming in in real time. But I think that's what the market is waiting on," said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments. Several central bank speakers will make appearances on Tuesday: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will be speaking that afternoon and evening.
WASHINGTON, March 14 (Reuters) - U.S. small-business confidence improved further in February, but many owners continued to experience difficulties finding workers, according to a survey on Tuesday. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.6 point to 90.9 last month. Forty-seven percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, up 2 points from January, with workers scarce for both skilled and unskilled positions. According to the NFIB, worker shortages were acute in the transportation, services and construction industries. About 38% of owners reported raising average selling prices, down 4 points from January.
The approach of those storms seems an appropriate analogy to the U.S. economic outlook today. Investors today are keenly focused on what kind of economic landing the U.S. will have and how best to position for different outcomes. That's critical for the broader growth outlook, given that consumption represents around two-thirds of the economy. While many U.S. firms are expressing their nervousness about the economic outlook, they are at the same time still seeking to hire. A negative feedback loop would likely ensue, with less income weighing on spending and less spending making companies more cautious.
WASHINGTON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, offering more evidence of the economy's resilience despite tighter monetary policy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 for the week ended Feb. 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims remain low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology sector and other industries highly sensitive to interest rates. Some of the laid-off workers are likely finding new work or are delaying filing for benefits because of severance packages. A second report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed monthly producer prices accelerating in January.
"We have a nice little sign in front of our register that says 'Hey, credit card fees, they cost us a lot of money,'" Victor Garcia, longtime owner of Sol Dias, told CNBC. CNBC | Cait FredaThe swipe fees aren't new, but the worsening problem comes at a time when Main Street businesses across the country are increasingly struggling with changing macroeconomic conditions. Although the central bank does not conduct the same survey for credit card transactions, the processes used for debit and credit cards are similar. Meanwhile, credit card fees amount to the third-highest operating expense on average for restaurants, according to the Texas Restaurant Association. The European Union cracked down on similar increases, capping fees in 2015 at 0.2% for debit card purchases and 0.3% for credit card purchases.
Unlike some other pandemic programs, these 30-year loans, carrying an interest rate of 3.75% for businesses, were intended to be paid back. But revenue is still down more than 45% — and it's time to start paying back those government loans. Coming out of the pandemic, small businesses have faced difficult hurdles, like staffing shortages, supply chain issues and inflation. Now add a possible looming recession, just as these EIDL loans come due. For EIDL loans over $200,000, a personal guaranty was required for individuals with 20% or more ownership in the business.
U.S. small-business sentiment skids to half-year low
  + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Jan 10 (Reuters) - U.S. small-business confidence slid to a six-month low in December, according to a survey on Tuesday, which also showed that inflation and worker shortages remained major issues for firm owners. On net, about 43% of owners reported raising average selling prices, down 8 points from November and the lowest since May 2021. Forty-one percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, down 3 points from November. "Overall, small business owners are not optimistic about 2023 as sales and business conditions are expected to deteriorate," said William Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist. "Owners are managing several economic uncertainties and persistent inflation and they continue to make business and operational changes to compensate."
Nov 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday turned away a challenge to a 2018 Seattle law requiring hotels to pay for health insurance for low-wage workers pursued by a business group that argued the measure violated a federal law that regulates employee benefits. The justices declined to hear an appeal by a group called the ERISA Industry Committee (ERIC) of a lower court's ruling that upheld the law. Democratic-governed Seattle's law requires larger hotel operators to provide up to $1,375 a month in insurance benefits or direct payments to workers. ERIC is a nonprofit organization based in the U.S. capital representing large employers in their capacity as sponsors of employee benefit plans for their nationwide workforces. The group sued Seattle in 2018 in federal court, arguing that the law was barred by the federal Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), which preempts state laws that attempt to regulate employee benefit plans.
"Inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages continue to limit the ability of many small businesses to meet the demand for their products and services." Meanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Business, the main small business trade group, reported last week the tenth-consecutive month of a confidence decline on Main Street, though little change in the need to hire more workers. When it comes to salary, small business owners generally don't play in the same league as larger companies. For example, don't just offer yoga or meditation apps or gym benefits; offer multiple ways employees can recharge, Lebovits said. Finally, small businesses need to understand what attracts job-seekers in the first place and play up these advantages in all of their communications with candidates.
If inflation has peaked, then U.S. stocks have bottomed, according to strategists at Clocktower Group —and that's exactly what they think has happened. They then looked at the average S & P 500 return following peaks in the CPI since 1934, and found that the broad-market index rises. Economists also predict core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to gain 0.5% month over month. Inflation figures came in hotter than expected for September , with CPI rising 0.4% month over month —more than the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate. While Clocktower strategists believe the bottom is in, they are urging caution right now.
REUTERS/Lindsey WassonWASHINGTON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - When a Washington state beauty salon charged Simran Bal $1,900 for training after she quit, she was shocked. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterNearly 10% of American workers surveyed in 2020 were covered by a training repayment agreement, said the Cornell Survey Research Institute. The practice, which critics call Training Repayment Agreement Provisions, or TRAPs, is drawing scrutiny from U.S. regulators and lawmakers. While waiting to complete the training, Bal worked at the front desk, which paid less. The International Brotherhood of Teamsters said in comments that training repayment demands were "particularly egregious" in commercial trucking.
A pipeline company's president told WSJ it's lost $13 million in work because of staff shortages. Boudreau Pipeline Corp. is made up of about 350 people, and the company installs underground sewer, water, and storm drain utilities. In the last two years, the company's wages have increased by 22%, Boudreau told WSJ. In a July 2022 report on small business employment from the National Federation of Independent Business, 49% of small business owners surveyed said they had job openings they couldn't fill. Are you a small business owner with a story to share?
We asked a series of entrepreneurship experts — including founders, investors, and business professors — to outline some best hiring practices. Read more: The first-time founder's ultimate guide to pitching a VCNow, your goal in hiring the company's first few employees is to get the product or service to market. Patty McCord, former chief talent officer at Netflix, previously told Business Insider that managers should regularly evaluate whether their current team is equipped to tackle the next big challenge. Break down your organization into different levels: the senior management team, director-level managers, key employees, and employees in non-critical functions. As Sophie Kahn, cofounder of the sustainable jewelry company AUrate, told Business Insider, you can also consider your employees' personal preferences.
He provides tools for turning negative chatter into something positive to help you regain control. This article is part of a series called "Leaders by Day," which takes a look at how prominent business leaders are tackling various challenges in today's economy. "I'll do three or four things when I experience chatter over the pandemic, and it's the combination of those things that often helps me," he said. Uncertainty and a lack of control are key ingredients that fuel chatter, Kross said. Create order in your environment"When we experience chatter, we often feel as if we are losing control.
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