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Search resuls for: "Stock Trader's"


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☆ Strong first quarter has the bulls even more excited about the rest of the year
  + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Since the height of the financial crisis three weeks ago, the S & P 500 is up over 300 points, roughly 8%. Not surprisingly, the rest of the year is almost invariably a strong year. When the S & P 500 advances 7% or more in the first quarter, it's up an average 23% for the full year. April: spring shoots Best month for Dow Industrials: average 1.9%. advance Up 16 straight from 2006 to 2021 End of "best six months" strategy Source: Stock Trader's Almanac
☆ Stocks could be shaky in the week ahead as sigh-of-relief rally runs its course
  + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The stock market is about to enter one of the seasonally strongest months of the year, but volatility could persist in the week ahead with fading momentum and a big jobs report. The stock market is closed that day to observe Good Friday. Week ahead calendar Monday 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending, Feb. 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing, March Tuesday 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders, Feb. 10:00 a.m. JOLTS, Feb. Wednesday 7:00 a.m. Mortgage Applications 8:15 a.m. ADP, March 8:30 a.m. Trade Balance, Feb. 10:00 a.m. ISM Service, March Thursday Earnings: Constellation Brands 8:30 a.m. Initial claims Friday The stock market is closed for Good Friday 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls
☆ April is usually the best month for the Dow. Here’s how much it typically goes up and why
  + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
By comparison, the Dow has gained around 0.7% in an average month since 1950. April has historically been the second best month for the S & P 500 and fourth best for the Nasdaq Composite (and second best for Russell 1000 and third best for the Russell 3000). More good news: The Aprils of previous pre-election years have posted an even stronger average performance. Lately, the Dow Industrials have exhibited strength following the tax filing deadline, per the Almanac, which falls on April 18 this year. A March advance would mark a reversal from February, when the Dow Industrials lost 4.2% and briefly gave up all of its early 2023 gain.
☆ Traders wonder if Fed will change its rate outlook to better match market expectations
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
and what the market believes ( The Fed will raise rates a quarter point in February, another quarter point in March, then stop, and will likely lower rates slightly by the end of the year). If inflation, particularly wage inflation, continues to move lower, the market will believe Powell is winning the fight against inflation. "As goes January, so goes the year" The S & P 500 ended up 6.2% in January, the first up January since 2019. "January is a reasonably good predictor of the year based on S & P 500 data back to 1928," Richard Suttmeier at Bank of America chart analyst told clients in a note. S & P 500: avg.
☆ January Barometer looks like it will be positive, giving bulls a psychological boost
  + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The so-called January Barometer starts 2023 positive with the S & P 500 up 4.6% to start the final trading day of the month. As for the S & P 500 , bulls want to keep the momentum going. To maintain that, the S & P has to stay well above the 4,000 range. Several companies (UPS, Exxon Mobil, Whirlpool) reported revenues that were lower than expectations. 2023 S & P earnings estimates: (year over year) Q1: down 1.7% Q2: down 2.2% Q3: up 3.8% Q4: up 10.1% Source: Refinitiv Want a good example?
☆ If January is the barometer it historically has been, stocks could see a very strong year
  + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +7 min
He said this year has even more reasons to be higher, since other market performance indicators are also positive. For instance, stocks were higher in the Santa rally period in the final five trading days of December and the first two of January. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time." spThe average annual S&P 500 gain for any year is about 9%, but Stovall said when the prior year is negative there's historically a higher bounce and the rally averages 14%. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time."
☆ A 'January Effect' rally is happening in small cap stocks. Jefferies has some names to keep playing it
  + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Small-cap stocks have surged in the first few weeks of January, confirming an outperformance that's often seen early on in a new year. So far this year, the Russell 2000 Index – which tracks small-cap stocks — is up 7.4% through Monday's close, outperforming its large-cap counterpart, the Russell 1000, which is up 5% in the same period. Even within small-cap names, the smallest companies by market share have performed the best, according to a Jan. 24 note from Jefferies. "With the calendar turning to the new year, we have seen a nice relief rally in the smallest of the small caps with names below $500M [in market capitalization] up 11.3%," wrote Jefferies small-cap strategist Steven DeSanctis. Restaurants Bloomin' Brands —which owns chains such as Outback Steakhouse and Bonefish Grill — and Dave & Buster's top the Jefferies list of small-cap names with higher-quality themes.
☆ Traders don't want to believe the Fed, so get used to a lot of choppiness
  + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Then Fed officials get on the tape say they're going to keep raising rates and keep them high until hell freezes over. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday said the central bank should raise interest rates above 5% and stay there for "a long time." Inflation data continues to show signs of cooling, but it's still high, and the Fed doesn't want to declare victory so they keep jawboning the markets down. The source of tension is that the trading community doesn't want to believe the Fed, and many are arguing the Fed is using stale data. "Wall Street does not believe the story being spun by the Fed," Harry Katica from Saut Strategy told his clients.
☆ Technical analysts agree January's strong start is a good omen, but here's what they expect to happen next
  + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
Redler expects the S & P 500 could reach 3,980 to 4,000 before reversing lower. The S & P 500 was trading at about 3,940 on Monday. He expects the S & P 500 to put in a near-term top this week. He is watching the 200-day moving average on the S & P 500, which is literally the average of the last 200 closes. "The SPX [S & P 500] has spent the majority of the last three weeks between 3,800 and 3,900," Krinsky wrote in a note.
☆ Simple ‘first five days’ stock market indicator is poised to send a good omen for 2023
  + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The stock market is set to post solid gains for the first five trading days of 2023, and according to the classic Wall Street indicator, the early strength could bode well for the full year. The so-called first five days rule suggests that if stocks perform well in the initial five sessions in a given year, the market is often up at the year-end, according to Stock Trader's Almanac, which studied the market phenomenon going back to 1950. When stocks finish the first five days higher, the S & P 500 has been positive 83% of the time at year-end with an average gain of 14%, according to Stock Trader's Almanac. The S & P 500 has risen 1.5% through the first four trading days of 2023, giving it a good chance of finishing first five days higher. While the indicator might send a positive signal, most on Wall Street are expecting a volatile year, especially during the first half.
☆ Investors play defense heading into final trading days of year but still hope for a Santa rally surprise
  + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The final trading week of the year is arriving with investors more concerned about defensive positioning than whether the stock market can muster a Santa Claus rally. Stocks were mostly lower in the past week, with the S & P 500 down about 0.6% as of Friday morning. After today, there are just four trading days left in the year, with markets closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday. In an interview on CNBC Thursday, Tepper said he is "leaning short" on the stock market because of global central bank tightening. The S & P 500 has averaged a 1.3% gain in that period, going back to 1950, and has been positive four out of every five years.
☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors look for 'Santa Rally' after grim year in U.S. stocks
  + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Bruised investors are hoping a so-called Santa Claus rally can soften the pain of a tough year in U.S. stocks and potentially brighten the outlook for 2023. Friday is this year's start date for this rally named after Santa Claus - if it happens. The phenomenon has lifted the S&P 500 an average of 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. A December without a Santa rally has been followed by a weaker-than-average year, data from LPL Financial going back to 1950 showed. "The lack of a 'Santa Claus rally' this month, with a 'lump of coal selloff' in its place, is a troubling sign about 2023 US equity returns," strategists at DataTrek wrote.
☆ Investors see typical seasonal patterns failing with little hope for a Santa rally or January bounce
  + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The usually reliable indicator historically shows the S & P 500 gains 73% of the time in the coming year when rising during those seven days. When the S & P was negative, the market was up about half that amount for the year, just 4.7%. The S & P was down 3.1% in February of 2022. In the year 2021, the S & P 500 gained 27%, but there are two distinct patterns following that type of gain. But, historically, whenever the decline started in the first or second quarter, the S & P 500 was higher by the end of the year 100% of the time.
☆ Wall Street's 'free lunch'? A simple holiday trade that tends to beat the market
  + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The almanac's editor-in-chief Jeffrey Hirsch wrote that "this `free lunch' is an extremely short-term strategy reserved for the nimblest traders." Also listed on the table are the average percentage of analysts rating each one a buy and the potential upside represented by analysts' 12-month price targets. Five financial stocks also popped up: Capital One , Signature Bank , Extra Space Storage , Lincoln National and Global Payments . Three tech stocks, two utilities and one consumer non-discretionary and one healthcare stock each round out the screen. Salesforce and Signature Bank both offer potential upside of more than 70%, the highest of the 13, based on analysts' average price targets.
☆ Stocks challenged by technical factors as market heads into final trading days of 2022
  + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Bad data should now correspond with higher bond prices (lower rates) and lower stocks," according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. Broke the line Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald said he sees a warning in the S & P 500 chart. "The S & P 500 was rejected at its 2022 downtrend last week marking resistance around 4,070," he wrote in his weekend note. "Our take is that the [S & P 500] index's base is intact," he wrote. But following that gain, the S & P was down 4.6% a month later; 4.6% three months later and 19.6% six months later.
☆ Wall St Week Ahead U.S. stock rally faces gauntlet of CPI data, Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The index has bounced about 10% from its October lows but remains down more than 17% on the year. Equities’ trajectory in the near future may depend on whether Tuesday’s consumer price index report shows inflation is responding to the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle since the 1980s. Hotter-than-expected data could bolster fears of more Fed hawkishness, pressuring stocks. A second helping of benign data could bolster the case for a peak in inflation and buoy equities further. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, investors are factoring in a half-percentage-point rate hike from the Fed next week, a step down from its recent series of three-quarter-point increases.
☆ Analysts think these November winners can rally further — and give 2 more than 160% upside
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The stock is buy rated by about 70% of analysts covering it, who give it average upside of 164.3%. Meanwhile, shares in Warren Buffett-backed BYD were up just 9% in November, but analysts think the stock could rally 68.4% looking ahead. Tech stocks A slew of Chinese tech stocks made the screen too, including Alibaba and Tencent . Analysts are bullish on Alibaba, with 89% of analysts holding a buy rating on the stock and giving it average upside of 39%. Andrew Maynard, head of equities at investment bank China Renaissance, believes Chinese Big Tech stocks such as Alibaba and Tencent are "incredibly cheap."
☆ These are the best-performing stocks over the last 10 Decembers, and analysts love them
  + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
December is typically a strong month for stocks, and there are several good opportunities in the index for investors looking to get ahead. That makes it the third-best month on average for the broader market index over that time period. Here are the 15 stocks: Casino stock Caesars Entertainment stands out as the stock with the highest median gain at 8.7%. Payments technology provider Global Payments, a financial stock, is also on the list with a 1% median gain from the last 10 Decembers. The stock has buy ratings from 80% of analysts covering them.
☆ Wall St Week Ahead Stocks typically rally in December, investors have some caution this year
  + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
September, meanwhile, is the worst month of average for stocks, with a 0.7% average decline. Gains would be welcomed by many investors after seeing the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) fall around 16% so far this year. Still, weighing on the market has been the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions to aggressively tighten interest rates to fight inflation. The average Santa rally has boosted the S&P 500 by 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. The painful double-digit declines in both U.S. stocks and bonds, meanwhile, have made both asset classes more attractive for long-term investors, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.
☆ Analysis: Political gridlock may help U.S. stocks but inflation still in driver's seat
  + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A split government "makes major policy changes unlikely, and that stability in policy tends to be reassuring for investors." Still, macroeconomic concerns and monetary policy have driven markets all year, and investors believe that trend is unlikely to change anytime soon. "Inflation matters more than anything else right now," said Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird. In the last five instances when the November-December period occurred in a bear market, the S&P 500 logged an average two-month decline of 2.2%. If you look at bear markets there is no evidence of seasonality at the end of the year," Antonelli said.
☆ Financial markets not showing too much stress, even as the crypto complex gets dismantled
  + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. But the point is, stocks have not been oblivious to slowdown risk to this point. Part of this is because energy firms are nicely profitable even at $75-$85 crude and are the rare group showing earnings growth. So far, the financial markets have not shown particular stress over the crypto unwind. Almost no movement in VIX, with modest index moves, expiration often pinning indexes in a narrow band and holiday-slowed trading ahead next week.
☆ Apple is key to determining whether the stock market can sustain a rally into year-end, Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton says
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The sustainability of a year-end rally in the stock market hinges on Apple, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton. "A breakout would likely foster a greater relief rally given Apple's influence on the major indices and sentiment," Stockton said. With the stock market on the verge of entering its best performing period on a seasonal basis, a continued relief rally is on the table. "Apple may hold clues as to the strength of the relief rally," Stockton said. "A breakout would likely foster a greater relief rally given Apple's influence on the major indices and sentiment," Stockton said.
☆ The Dow is following a short-term positive trading pattern surrounding midterms
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The Dow has climbed in the run-up to Tuesday's midterm elections, fitting into a historical pattern of bullish trading every four years. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the Dow has consistently risen before and after midterm elections for nearly 90 years. "An impressive 2.8% has been the average gain during the eight trading days surrounding midterm election days since 1934. This is equivalent to roughly 966 Dow points per day at present levels," the Almanac says. It is unclear why the historical trends are strong for midterm elections in particular.
☆ The election could be a big tailwind for stocks heading into the end of the year
  + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The average annual return of the S & P 500 in the 12 months before a midterm election since 1962 is 0.3%, "significantly lower than the historical average of 8.1%," US Bancorp said in a recent note. In the 12-month period after a midterm election, the S & P is up an average of 16.3%. The outperformance was especially notable in the period three months and six months after the election, when the S & P was up 7.3% and 15.1% on average. Most attribute the reason for underperformance to policy uncertainty — investors do not know which political party will hold a majority in Congress, which resolves after the midterm election. The S & P was higher 88.9% of the time.
☆ Here's a way to juice your returns to play the seasonally strongest six months of the year
  + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
How you play it could make a difference to your returns, according to CFRA. The rule of thumb, popularized in the Stock Trader's Almanac, is that November through April are the strongest six months in any given year for the S & P 500 . The average price gains from equal exposure to these sectors was 9%, compared with 6.7% for all of the S & P 500, Stovall pointed out. Since 1992, the S & P 500 gained an average 15.2% in November through April of those years. Investors can also get exposure through individual sector ETFs, such as the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund , the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund , the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund .
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