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☆ Dollar steady as Fed's Powell says higher rates may be needed
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major counterparts - was about flat at $104.06 after rising to 104.44, its highest since June 1. Interest rate futures tied to the Fed's policy rate on Friday priced in a more than even chance of tightening at either the November or December policy meetings. On Friday, the euro was 0.01% lower against the dollar at $1.08085. Against the yen , the dollar was up 0.31% to 146.28.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Powell, Karl Schamotta, Ben, Bernanke, Mario, Draghi, Schamotta, bitcoin, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Ankur Banerjee, Kirsten Donovan, Christina Fincher, Nick Zieminski, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal, European Central Bank, Global Research, Reuters, of, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Toronto, Britain, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar rises ahead of Jackson Hole gathering
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"But the reaction to them was pretty muted overall, suggesting the Jackson Hole symposium is the main thing on the markets' mind," he said. Elsewhere, the Turkish lira rallied to a 2-month high against the dollar, up about 6% to 25.55 against the dollar after the Turkish central bank hiked the 1-week repo from 17.5% to a much-higher-than expected 25%. According to the median estimate in a Reuters poll, economists were expecting the policy rate to increase to 20%. Turkey's central bank embarked on a tightening cycle in June after President Tayyip Erdogan appointed former Wall Street banker Hafize Gaye Erkan as governor. The dollar was 0.7% higher against the yen , not far from the 9-month high 146.565 touched last week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Stuart Cole, Powell, Cole, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Piotr Matys, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Joice Alves, Tom Westbrook, Ankur Banerjee, Angus MacSwan, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Jackson, Equiti, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed, Boston Fed, U.S, Turkish, Wall Street, Touch Capital, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: London, Europe, Turkish, British

☆ US stocks may not be ready for hawkish Powell at Jackson Hole, options data show
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell walks in Teton National Park where financial leaders from around the world gathered for the Jackson Hole economic symposium outside Jackson, Wyoming, U.S., August 26, 2022. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Investors may be underestimating the degree of potential market turbulence stemming from the Federal Reserve's economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, potentially leaving them more vulnerable to a hawkish surprise, options strategists said. This year's symposium also comes at a time when various asset classes have become more vulnerable to outsized moves following the Jackson Hole event, according to an analysis by derivatives strategists at Barclays. Across asset classes, the average volatility-adjusted move around Jackson Hole has almost doubled in the 2017-2022 period, compared with 2010-2016, the bank's strategists wrote in a note on Tuesday. Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Urquhart, Powell, Steve Sosnick, Sosnick, Chris Murphy, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal, Interactive, Reuters Graphics, Bank of America, Barclays, Treasury, Susquehanna Financial Group, Thomson Locations: Teton, Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming

☆ Investors look to AI-darling Nvidia's earnings as US stocks rally wobbles
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Robert Galbraith/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Bullish investors are hoping Wednesday's earnings report from chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA.O) can rejuvenate a U.S. stocks rally that has stumbled in recent weeks. The market's turbulence is intensifying focus on Nvidia's fiscal second quarter report, due after market close on Wednesday. Following that report, the S&P 500 technology sector (.SPLRCT) rallied 8% over the next five days. Signs that the central bank intends to hold rates around current levels for longer than investors had anticipated could further weigh on stocks. In a Monday note, Goldman analysts said an equal-weighted basket of those 11 stocks had returned 69% so far in 2023, outpacing a 7% gain for the overall equal-weight S&P 500.

Persons: Robert Galbraith, Anthony Saglimbene, Chuck Carlson, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Nvidia, REUTERS, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, Ameriprise, Reuters, Societe Generale, Horizon Investment Services, Nasdaq, Federal, NVDA, Goldman, Thomson Locations: Santa Clara , California, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, outpacing, New York

☆ Nvidia options show traders positioned for outsized share move after earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A Nvidia logo is seen on one of their products on display at their headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan May 31, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Wang/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Traders in the U.S. equity options market are expecting a larger-than-usual swing in Nvidia's (NVDA.O) shares following the chipmaker's quarterly results after the close on Wednesday, options market data showed. Nvidia options imply a nearly 11% swing for the shares, in either direction, by Friday, according to Trade Alert data. The stock has gained about 11% in the last seven sessions, taking its year-to-date gains to about 210%, and has drawn options bets on further gains. "The stock moves on earnings but you can't just assume it only moves up," he said.

Persons: Ann Wang, Steve Sosnick, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: REUTERS, Traders, Nvidia, Interactive, Thomson Locations: Taipei, Taiwan, U.S

Here are some charts illustrating what has changed, and what has not, in meme stocks. Data from JPMorgan illustrate how quickly sentiment can turn among individual investors, who have been among the key drivers of moves in meme stocks. Retail investors sold a net $852 million in single stocks in the past week. The Roundhill MEME ETF (MEME.P), which tracks the performance of a basket of meme stocks, is down about 55% from where it started trading in December 2021, though up about 38% for the year. A quick rise, often followed by a rapid descent, is a fate common to meme stocks of both the past and present.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Marco Iachini, Vanda's, Iachini, Jonathan Krinsky, Tupperware, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Laura Matthews, Ira Iosebashvili, Jamie Freed Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, GameStop, Tupperware Brands, Corp, JPMorgan, Vanda Research, Retail, Global, Reuters, AMC Entertainment, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Analysis: Japan's policymakers hold fire as yen enters intervention range
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But a key factor behind the yen's weakness is unchanged, namely the yawning yield gap with the United States. Yet currency traders remain nervous about provoking intervention, as the yen entered the same zone that triggered heavy dollar selling by Japanese authorities in September and October of last year. For now, traders are testing the waters by selling the yen against sterling and the Swiss franc, mindful that selling against the dollar could gather momentum quickly. From a purely macroeconomic perspective, Kichikawa said, officials have no imperative to prevent yen weakness before 150, which is consistent with the mild inflationary pressure that the BOJ aims to foster. The bond market, which precipitated the yen's slide, may ultimately give Japan's authorities reason to hold off on pressing the intervention button.

Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Suzuki, Aaron Hurd, Masayuki Kichikawa, Brent, Kichikawa, Shinichiro Kadota, Kevin Buckland, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Bank of Japan, Finance, State Street Global Advisors, Swiss, Brent, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Treasury, Barclays, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, United States, Tokyo, Boston, Japan

REUTERS/Adrees LatifNEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Michael Burry, the money manager made famous in the book and film "The Big Short," held bearish options against the broad S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Index at the end of the second quarter, according to securities fillings released on Monday. Put options convey the right to sell shares at a fixed price in the future and are typically bought to express a bearish or defensive view. Michael Lewis' nonfiction book "The Big Short" was released in 2010 and the movie version came out in 2015. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is up roughly 17% for the year to date while the Nasdaq 100 (.IXIC) is up nearly 39% over the same period. Burry, who frequently turns over his portfolio, drew wide attention last August when he dumped all of his long positions and bought a stake in prison company Geo Group Inc (GEO.N).

Persons: Adrees Latif, Michael Burry, Michael Lewis, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Nasdaq, REUTERS, YORK, Scion Asset Management, U.S, Nvidia, HK, Alibaba Group Holdings, Western Alliance Bancorp, First Republic Bank, RealReal Inc, Warner Bros ., Warner Brothers, Scion, Management, Geo Group Inc, Thomson Locations: Square, Midtown New York, New York

U.S. bank shares dropped on Tuesday after ratings agency Moody's downgraded credit ratings of several U.S. regional lenders and placed some banking giants on review for potential downgrade. It warned lenders will find it harder to make money as interest rates remain high, funding costs climb and a potential recession looms. The warning caught some investors off guard. On Tuesday, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF's (KRE.P) options-based 30-day implied volatility rose to 31.1%, up from 28.9% touched on Monday. "In the near term, there are reasons for caution about banks in general and we have made changes where appropriate," he said.

Persons: SPDR, Steve Sosnick, There's, David Wagner, David Smith, Brian Mulberry, Michelle Price, Diane Craft Organizations: Moody's Corporation, P Bank, Regional Banking, Silicon Valley Bank, Banking, Interactive, Alert, Aptus Capital, Autonomous Research, Analysts, Zacks Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York, U.S, Silicon

☆ Bearish traders swarm AMC options as stock conversion plan faces doubts
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - Shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC.N) have been hit by a wave of bearish options bets amid uncertainty over the company's stock conversion plan. While the common shares finished Thursday at $4.52, the APE preferred shares ended the session at $1.86. The move sent AMC’s shares higher, disappointing bearish traders who expected news of a conversion to tank the price. Still, options traders appear to be powering on with their bearish wagers, in effect betting the conversion will eventually go through. On Thursday, AMC shares finished down 10%, while APE shares rose 6%.

Persons: Steve Sosnick, Brent Kochuba, Garrett DeSimone, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Diane Craft Organizations: YORK, AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc, AMC, Trade, Reuters, New York Stock Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Thomson Locations: Ortex, OptionMetrics

☆ Dollar’s decline throws spotlight on battered commodity currencies
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

While that's driven rallies in risk assets such as stocks, raw materials prices and some commodity currencies have been slower to respond. Reuters GraphicsThe bullish view on commodity currencies gained traction in recent days after leaders in China - the world’s leading commodity consumer - on Monday pledged to step up policy support for the economy. Prices for oil, copper and other raw materials rose on the news, while commodity currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars edged up. Some other commodity currencies have seen similar declines, with the New Zealand dollar down 2% and the South African rand down 3%. Commodity currencies are far from the only way to play further dollar weakness.

Persons: there's, Francesco Pesole, Brent, Thanos Bardas, Neuberger Berman, Bardas, Bipan Rai, Jane Foley, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, Reserve, ING Bank, Australian, Reuters, New, U.S, New Zealand, Deutsche Bank, International Monetary Fund, Bank of Japan, U.S ., CIBC, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Norway, Australia, U.S, Norwegian, China, North America, Sweden

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Relentless U.S. stock rally faces Fed test
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is up nearly 19% year-to-date and closed on Thursday at 4,534.87, only about 6% below an all-time high reached in January 2022. What the Fed does and says next week will be critical," said Cliff Corso, chief investment officer at Advisors Asset Management. "Bearish investors have had to capitulate," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. The bank last month raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 4,500, from 4,000. However, Christopher Tsai, chief investment officer at Tsai Capital, is not worried about buying into an overvalued market.

Persons: Cliff Corso, Jonathan Golub, Tom Lee, Ed Yardeni, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Eric Freedman, Goldman Sachs, Sunitha Thomas, We've, Christopher Tsai, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fed, Asset Management, Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse, Fundstrat Global, Yardeni Research, National Association of Active Investment, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Consumers, Northern Trust, Tsai, MSCI Inc, Zoetis Inc, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jonathan Golub of

☆ Tumbling US dollar a boon to risk assets across the globe
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Cooling U.S. inflation is accelerating a decline in the dollar, and risk assets around the world stand to benefit. Because the dollar is a linchpin of the global financial system, a wide range of assets stand to benefit if it continues falling. Raw materials, which are priced in dollars, become more affordable to foreign buyers when the dollar declines. "For markets, the weaker dollar and its underlying driver, weaker inflation, is a balm for everything, especially for assets outside the U.S.," said Alvise Marino, foreign exchange strategist at Credit Suisse. Reuters GraphicsIn the world of monetary policy, the dollar's decline may be a relief to some countries, as it removes the urgency for them to support their falling currencies.

Persons: Russell, Alvise Marino, Karl Schamotta, Paresh Upadhyaya, Upadhyaya, Kenneth Broux, Helen, pare, it's, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investment, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, Treasury, Fed, Colombian, Kazakhstan tenge, Uruguayan, Reuters Graphics, Traders, Generale, stoke, Monex USA, Thomson Locations: U.S, Polish, Corpay, Kazakhstan, Japan, Swedish

☆ Rivian options buyers may be helping drive stock higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Some 831,000 Rivian options contracts traded on Monday, or two times its average daily volume. Much of the options trading has consisted of investors buying "super short-dated calls," said Daniel Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler, adding that the options activity had helped drive Rivian's shares higher. Large purchases of out-of-the-money call options - contracts that are not profitable but stand to gain in value as the stock climbs - can sometimes give an additional lift to a stock's price. The phenomenon has occurred with shares of various companies popular with options buyers over the last few years, from AMC to Tesla. Options on another EV name, Nio Inc , were also actively traded on Monday, making it the 10th most heavily traded individual company in the options market.

Persons: Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, Kirsch, Rivian, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Will Dunham Organizations: YORK, Rivian Automotive, AMC, Tesla, Apple Inc, Inc, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Out-of-sync U.S. stocks hide market risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Investors expect stocks to move increasingly out of sync as shown by the Cboe 3-Month Implied Correlation Index (.COR3M), which measures the 3-month expected average correlation across the top 50 value-weighted S&P 500 stocks. The last time 3-month implied correlation got this low was in early 2018, just before the February 2018 urge in market volatility dubbed 'Volmageddon.' Much of today's low stock market correlation has to do with the gulf in performance between a handful of mega caps driving the benchmark index higher and the rest of the market. "You have this view in the market that this is a stock picker's market because correlation is low," EAB Investment Group's Holzer said. "Because correlations are so low, index options have gotten incredibly cheap," said Daniel Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler said.

Persons: Dow, Arnim Holzer, Group's Holzer, Jack Ablin, Ablin, Kris Sidial, Sidial, Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, Dow Jones, EAB Investment, UBS, U.S . Federal, Cresset, Ambrus, Thomson

☆ Investors watch for quarter-end rebalancing in US stocks, bonds and options
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, June 26 (Reuters) - Investors are watching a large hedged-equity fund's quarterly refresh of its options positions and quarter-end rebalancing by portfolio managers to potentially influence U.S. stock moves as the first half of the year winds down this week. The nearly $16 billion JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund , which holds a basket of S&P 500 (.SPX) stocks along with options on the benchmark index, is expected to roll its options positions on Friday. While the trade is anticipated by many market participants, it can exacerbate or suppress daily stock market moves, especially during times of poor market liquidity, analysts said. For now, the trade may be helping suppress volatility in stocks. That may help curb market volatility, analysts said.

Persons: Brent Kochuba, Michael Purves, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York

☆ Dollar dips as Powell testimony disappoints hawks
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Powell told lawmakers the fight against inflation still "has a long way to go" and that despite a recent pause in interest rate hikes officials agreed borrowing costs would likely need to move higher. While noting that inflation remains very far from the Fed's target, Powell said it may make sense to still raise rates, at a more moderate pace. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six rivals, fell 0.43% to 102.07 following Powell's testimony to the House Financial Affairs Committee. Investors broadly expect rate hikes to resume at the Fed's July meeting, though financial market indicators reflect doubts that the Fed will deliver more increases beyond that. YEN UNDER PRESSURE, STERLING SEESAWSThe euro was 0.62 % higher against the dollar at $ 1.0985 .

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, Karl Schamotta, Schamotta, Michael Brown, STERLING, Kazuo Ueda, Charles Schwab, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Tom Westbrook, Farouq Suleiman, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill, Sharon Singleton, Alex Richardson, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, U.S, Fed, House Financial, Committee, Investors, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Fidelity, Citadel Securities, Thomson Locations: Beijing

☆ Stocks fall, U.S. dollar up as investors assess U.S. rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investors also were digesting China's move to cut its benchmark loan prime rates (LPR) for the first time in 10 months on Tuesday. Among Beijing's moves to stimulate the country's slowing recovery, the People's Bank of China lowered the medium-term lending facility rate on Thursday. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar was up 0.22% on the day, with the euro down 0.14% to $ 1.0907 . The Australian dollar fell after its latest central bank meeting minutes showed that keeping interest rates unchanged had been under consideration.

Persons: Dow, Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Powell, Joe Manimbo, Brent, Caroline Valetkevitch, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Joice Alves, Selena Li, Anisha, Susan Fenton, Jason Neely, Richard Chang Organizations: Treasury, People's Bank of, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, . House, Representatives, Financial Affairs, Thomson Locations: U.S, People's Bank of China, New York City, China . U.S, New York, London, Hong Kong, Bengaluru

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoJune 16 (Reuters) - U.S. electric-vehicle startups were set for massive weekly gains on Friday after a searing rally in their shares over the past few sessions nearly doubled the value of companies such as Nikola (NKLA.O). Other big gainers such as Nikola and Workhorse Group (WKHS.O) have short interests of 21.7% and 23.9%, respectively. Reuters GraphicsUsed-car retailer Carvana (CVNA.N), another highly shorted stock, has also posted strong gains that have pushed up its value by nearly $1.38 billion this week. "Carvana probably kick-started this, it is up more than 100% in a couple of weeks on a short squeeze. Nikola and Lordstown have drawn a flurry of bullish options activity in recent days as traders place bets on further gains.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Nikola, Dennis Dick, Carvana, Tesla, Lordstown, Aditya Soni, Akash Sriram, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: REUTERS, Lordstown, S3 Partners, Reuters, Triple, EV, U.S, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: Morgan, Bengaluru, New York

The 15% year-to-date rally in the S&P 500 (.SPX) is pulling once doubtful investors back into the market. Meanwhile, options investors are buying calls - bets on upside in stocks - at levels not seen in years. A record 1.8 million S&P 500 calls traded on Thursday, helping lift the one-month moving average of calls-to-puts to the highest in at least four years, Trade Alert data showed. The S&P 500 has posted a median gain of 18% in the 12 months after clearing the 20% threshold, LPL Financial data showed. One encouraging signal is that a greater number of S&P 500 stocks are heading higher, in addition to the handful of megacap growth names such as Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) that led gains this year.

Persons: you've, Emily Roland, Goldman Sachs, Willie Delwiche, we're, Delwiche, Brent Kochuba, Matt Stucky, Ken Mahoney, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, National Association of Active Investment, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Trade, John Hancock Asset Management, Mount Research, American Association of, Investors, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Microsoft, Nvidia, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Fear of missing out on stocks' rally drives bullish options trading
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - Fear of missing out on the recent stock market rally is driving traders in the U.S. equity options market to lap up bullish derivative contracts at a hectic pace, further fueling gains for stocks, analysts said on Friday. On Thursday, a record 1.8 million S&P 500 calls traded. The rush into call options lifted the S&P 500 Index's 1-month moving average of calls-to-puts to the highest in at least 4 years, according to Trade Alert data. Some of the rush into call options has also helped fuel the rally, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options analytic service SpotGamma. "The trend is probably higher... but in the very short term we have gotten over our skies," Kochuba said.

Persons: Russell, Christopher Jacobson, Brent Kochuba, Kochuba, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, Thomson Locations: U.S, Susquehanna

☆ Rallying U.S. stocks are pulling in sidelined investors, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - A steadily rising U.S. stock market appears to be drawing investors off the sideline, one measure of market positioning showed. Positioning among discretionary investors - a cohort that includes everyone from portfolio managers to retail investors - broke out of its one-year underweight range and went above neutral for the first time since February, data from Deutsche Bank showed Friday. The shift comes after months during which discretionary investors sat on the sidelines while systematic investors - funds that take a repeatable data-driven approach and rely on computers to identify investment opportunities - have been steady buyers, according to Deutsche Bank. The S&P 500 index extended its gain last week to 20% from its October lows - one definition of a bull market. "A lot of it has to do simply with stocks moving up ... buyers attract more buyers," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder.

Persons: Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, Deutsche Bank, Stocks, Ingalls &, Federal, Thomson

☆ Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors rethink recession plays, boosting U.S. stock market laggards
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"There's reason to believe that the pessimism we saw at the start of the year is giving way to a stronger-than-expected market." Murray has increased his allocation to small-cap stocks, which tend to be among the most direct beneficiaries of economic growth. Other rebounding segments in June include the S&P 500 energy sector, which has gained 6% this month and S&P 500 industrials, up 5.7%. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are firmer for the month to date, compared to only six for the year. Stronger-than-expected jobs growth and robust consumer spending have been among the data points that have bolstered investors' economic outlook.

Persons: Tim Murray, T Rowe Price's, Murray, Russell, Dow, Howard Silverblatt, Goldman Sachs, Saira Malik, Max Wasserman, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Energy, Reuters, Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Nvidia Corp, Tesla Inc, Dow Jones, Capital Economics, Miramar Capital, Starbucks Corp, Target Corp, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ How US stocks rose 20% from their lows, and where they might be going
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, June 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks have defied fears of a recession, a banking crisis and soaring Treasury yields to rise 20% from their October lows - one definition of a bull market. Here are some features of the index's rally, and a look at where stocks might go from here. More recently, however, the market's gains have shown tentative signs of broadening out to other stocks. A 20% gain from bear market lows has in the past heralded further upside for stocks. In four of the last six bear markets, the S&P went on to rise 20% or more in the six months after hitting this milestone.

Persons: Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Daniel Wallis Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Reuters, Investors, U.S, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, U.S

☆ Dollar bears bide their time as US economic strength persists
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Fund managers in the latest BofA Global Research survey named shorting the dollar as the market's third "most crowded" trade. The dollar is "in a very messy transition from bull market to a bear market," said Aaron Hurd, senior portfolio manager, currency, at State Street Global Advisors. Hurd expects the dollar to remain buoyant over the very short term, but decline steadily over the next few years. Most investors believe the dollar will likely remain elevated until U.S. data turns decidedly weaker, allowing the Fed to cut rates. "The dollar strength is entirely related to the fact that U.S. data is actually pretty good," said Alvise Marino, a strategist at Credit Suisse.

Persons: Aaron Hurd, Hurd, Alvise Marino, Bipan Rai, Christine Lagarde, Brian Rose, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, Futures Trading Commission, Fund, Research, Street Global Advisors, Bears, Federal Reserve, Fed, Traders, Credit Suisse, Reuters, U.S . Treasury, CIBC, UBS Global Wealth Management, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: U.S, North America, Europe

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