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In his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders, Jamie Dimon rang the alarm on geopolitical tensions. The bank's CEO said investors were too optimistic about inflation, interest rates, and the economy. AdvertisementJamie Dimon is deeply concerned about international relations — and worries investors are too optimistic about threats such as inflation, interest rates, and recession. AdvertisementIndeed, Dimon said JPMorgan was ready for rates of 2% to 8% or even higher. He flagged the possibility of stagflation, which could usher in higher rates, large credit losses, a slump in business volumes, and tough markets.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , Dimon, Sharp, he's Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Federal, Wall Locations: Ukraine, China
Interest in universal basic income has grown due to the pandemic, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and economic pain. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementYet a common question and concern about UBI remains how people spend the money. Related storiesThe Guaranteed Income Pilots Dashboard , a joint project from the Stanford Basic Income Lab and the Center for Guaranteed Income Research, pulls together data from more than 30 pilot programs in the US involving nearly 8,300 participants. GiveDirectly, a nonprofit, is providing universal basic income to 20,000 people across 200-odd royal villages in Kenya over 12 years.
Persons: Elon Musk, Sam Altman, , It's, Karl Widerquist, Fabian Wendt, Rebecca Hasdell, UpTogether, Monique Gonzalez, Stephanie Hendon, Widerqist, Matt Bruenig, Douglas MacKay, Chapel Hill, MacKay Organizations: Service, Georgetown University, Qatar, Stanford, Income, Center, Research, UNC, Chapel Locations: Virginia, Kenya, San Antonio , Texas
Opinion | Joe Biden Is More Than His Age
  + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
To the Editor:Re “The Overlooked Truths About Biden’s Age,” by Frank Bruni (Opinion, March 30):Mr. Bruni was absolutely right to point out that the presidency is not a one-person job. The president needs the right people under him and around him. Joe Biden put together a great cabinet and other advisers quite quickly three and a half years ago. Janis DelsonNew YorkTo the Editor:Like President Biden, I turn 82 this fall. And, yes, we sometimes experience brief memory freezes as the memory bubbles surface more slowly through our brain’s molasses.
Persons: Frank Bruni, Bruni, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Janis Delson, Biden Locations: York
Its data is used in everything from hurricane forecasting and fisheries to Coast Guard search and rescue – IOOS data can help the Coast Guard narrow down a search area by two-thirds. Despite President Joe Biden’s ambitious climate goals, his recent budget proposal would slash the program’s funding from $42.5 million to $10 million. Ocean data collection is “the only way we can really understand what is happening,” said Kristen Yarincik, executive director of the IOOS Association, the nonprofit that works with NOAA collecting data. IOOS has added 97 water level stations along the coasts of the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida in the last few years. “At least half of the water level sensor network would be compromised with this funding cut.”
Persons: , Joe Biden’s, Trump, , Gerhard Kuska, ” Kuska, Scott Smullen, Kristen Yarincik, ” Yarincik, , Ellen Prager, IOOS, “ We’re, Debra Hernandez, Hernandez, ” Hernandez Organizations: CNN, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Coast Guard, White, Office of Management, NOAA, IOOS Association Locations: megastorms, Carolinas, Georgia, Florida
Baltimore’s regional economy has a lot going for it such as low unemployment and low inflation. That’s well below the national rate of 3.9% in February and ranks 43rd out of 389 regions across the country with more than one million residents. Low inflationThe US economy is still dealing with high inflation, but that’s not much of a problem for the Baltimore metro. Inflation in Baltimore slowed dramatically last year from April to June, falling to a 2.8% annual rise from April’s 5.3%. Like across the country, rising energy prices have recently pushed up overall inflation in the Baltimore metro.
Persons: Francis Scott Key, Prince, it’ll, Matt Rourke, Matt Jaffe, , ” Jaffe, that’s, That’s, ” Christina DePasquale, Johns, Freddie Mac Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, Towson, Labor Department, Washington D.C, U.S, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Fed Locations: Baltimore, Port, Baltimore County, Columbia, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta, Washington, Dundalk, Md
After-tax profits hit a record high of $2.8 trillion in the fourth quarter, per the Commerce Department. "The gangbuster gain in profits helps explain why businesses have been able and willing to hold the line on layoffs, which was key to avoiding recession," he said. Advertisement"It also helps explain the record stock market, and the resulting positive wealth effects and resilient consumer spending." Related storiesAs for stocks, they're generally valued at a multiple to company profits so they've hit record highs too. That has made stockholders feel wealthier and more comfortable spending, Zandi said.
Persons: , Mark Zandi, That's, Zandi Organizations: Service, Corporate America, Corporations, Commerce Department, Business, Federal Reserve, Companies
In South San Francisco, a small startup is working on a high-tech approach to wildfire prevention. Anukool Lakhina and Waleed "Lee" Haddad founded BurnBot in 2022 to develop robotics and remote-controlled vehicles that can munch up and burn away invasive plants or other dry vegetation that can fuel fires if left fallow. Like other agricultural and construction equipment, the RX rolls forward on tank-like tracks and wheels, which enable it to maneuver through rough fields. The chambers of the BurnBot RX also trap and torch away the smoke that comes from burning vegetation, so it doesn't pollute the air in surrounding communities. When the torching is done, the RX sprays water repeatedly to extinguish any remaining embers.
Persons: Lakhina, Waleed, Lee, Haddad, BurnBot, munch Organizations: Ventures Locations: California, South San Francisco, BurnBot
The Fed could cut rates five times in 2025, according to S&P Global Ratings' global chief economist. A slowing US economy will give the Fed the green light to cut, the firm predicted. That implies the Fed will lower rates by 2 full percentage points as inflation continues to cool. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe Fed could cut rates as many as five times next year, as the US economy can't keep its hot pace of growth forever, according to Paul Gruenwald, S&P Global Ratings' global chief economist.
Persons: , Paul Gruenwald, Gruenwald Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Business
The US government's ballooning interest payments are eating a hole in its budget, they said. "We are headed toward record spending levels, record deficit levels, record debt levels, record interest payments — the list goes and on," Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told Fox Business this week. While the US isn't at imminent risk of that kind of chaos, bond markets could "snap back" if the government's interest payments soar to $1 trillion in 2026 as expected, Swagel said. AdvertisementHowever, she noted that some experts on Wall Street were "incredibly worried" about the national debt and interest payments. DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has also sounded the alarm on debt payments.
Persons: , MacGuineas, Philip Swagel, Liz Truss, Swagel, bitcoin, Jim Rogers, George Soros, He's, Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: Investors, Service, Federal Budget, Fox Business, Congressional, Office, Financial Times, Bank of, CBO, Wall, DoubleLine
And perhaps best of all, money — from selling the electricity generated by the wind turbines studding the flat green fields stretching out to the North Sea. A slice of the cash goes to the villagers themselves, with the local buy-in making this windy farming enclave near the border with Denmark a showcase for ways to push ahead with renewable energy projects. The S&P Global Clean Energy Index of shares in companies with clean energy-related businesses has fallen 26% over the past year, even as broader market indexes have surged to records. In sub-Saharan Africa, where half the population lacks access to electricity, renewable projects face even steeper challenges with financing. In Nigeria, where blackouts are an everyday event for about half of the country’s 213 million people, some 14 solar projects have stalled because the finances don’t add up.
Persons: , Astrid Nissen, moos, , Mackenzie, it's, Nissen, Christian Andresen, Andresen, Orsted, Vattenfall, David Shepheard, Edu Okeke, Taiwo Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, University College London, Solar, Energie Andresen GmbH, Energy, logjams, World Bank Locations: SPRAKEBUELL, Germany, Denmark, village's, Spain, Italy, Africa, Flensburg, Sprakebuell's, German, Danish, New Jersey, Swedish, North American, Saharan Africa, Nigeria, Katsina, Abuja
A Gucci store at Harbour City shopping mall, operated by Wharf Holdings Ltd., in Hong Kong, China, on Friday, June 2, 2023. Shares of French luxury group Kering plunged 14% on Tuesday after the company warned that Gucci sales look set to fall 20% year-on-year in the first quarter, amid declining Asia transactions. Kering plunged to the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after a delayed open, dragging other European luxury lines with it. Gucci comparable revenues in the first quarter are expected to be down by nearly 20% year on year." The slowdown is expected to derive primarily from Asia — and chiefly from China, whose economy has been struggling.
Persons: Gucci, Kering, Christian Dior, Hermes, Burberry Organizations: Wharf Holdings Ltd, Gucci, Asia — Locations: Harbour City, Hong Kong, China, Asia, London, Pacific
Retail sales rose 5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, while industrial production climbed 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth. Investment into real estate fell by 9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago. National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Liu Aihua said that real estate remains in a period of "adjustment," according to a CNBC translation of his statement in Mandarin. New loans in February missed expectations and fell from the prior month, "even after adjusting for seasonality," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Friday. Chinese authorities did not reveal significant new support for the massive real estate sector during an annual parliamentary meeting that ended last week.
Persons: Liu Aihua, Liu, Ting Lu, Goldman Sachs, Pan Gongsheng, Goldman Organizations: Pudong New, Investment, National Bureau of, CNBC, China, People's Bank of China, Reuters Locations: Dongyu, Qiantan, Pudong, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China, BEIJING, Real, Beijing
The $1.7 trillion private credit market has delayed a US recession, according to Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity chief market strategist. AdvertisementAn economic recession has been delayed, but not averted amid ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, according to Cannacord Genuity chief market strategist Tony Dwyer. But I really think it's the private credit market that has help up companies that would have ordinarily not had access to capital. The private credit market has soared over the past decade as investors reached for yield amid a prolonged period of near-zero interest rates, with less than $300 billion invested in private credit in 2009. And for the first time in history, we have private credit," Dwyer said.
Persons: Tony Dwyer, Canaccord, Dwyer, Cannacord, it's Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, PMI, Fed
That's because aggressive Fed rate hikes haven't been fully felt across the economy. AdvertisementA wave of layoffs could be coming as companies deal with the reality of higher interest rates, economists say. The peak unemployment rate during the Great Recession was 10% in 2009. Following revisions to the prior two months' figures, the unemployment rate also rose to 3.9% in February, its highest level in two years. The unemployment rate is a classic lagging indicator."
Persons: David Rosenberg, , what's, Steve Briggs, Briggs, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Briggs, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fitch
That was a far steeper decline than the overall venture funding market, which declined 38% in 2023, the report said. (The report was based on data from Crunchbase, which Alignment Growth is an investor in.) Investors have been flocking to AI, live entertainment, and sports. Sports M&A nearly tripled in three years to $27.9 billion in 2023, driven by deals for team franchises, the Alignment Growth report showed. High ticket prices for live entertainment could dampen attendance, especially if consumer confidence takes a hit.
Persons: Wade Holden, Anthony Jasenski, CBRE's, Jasenski, haven't, IATSE, Alex Iosilevich, Schlogel, Craig Thompson Organizations: Venture, Business, Disney, Warner Bros, Global, P Global Market Intelligence, Blackstone, Bain Capital Real, Deloitte, Teamsters, Hollywood, Investors, Sports, Atwater, Mindspring Capital Locations: Hollywood, Crunchbase, Americas, OpenAI
WASHINGTON (AP) — The House is expected to vote to keep money flowing to scores of federal agencies before a midnight Friday shutdown deadline even as many members of the Republican conference are expected to vote against it. A significant number of House Republicans oppose the measure, forcing House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to use an expedited process to bring the bill up for a vote. That process requires two-thirds of the House to vote for the measure for it to pass. Photos You Should See View All 60 ImagesJohnson countered that House Republicans have just a two-vote majority in the House while Democrats control the Senate and White House. The GOP's effort was unsuccessful for now, but supporters say they'll try again in next year's spending bills.
Persons: Mike Johnson, Johnson, , ” Johnson, staved, they'll, , Rosa DeLauro, Gabrielle Giffords, Vanessa N, Gonzalez, Scott Perry, Lisa Mascaro Organizations: WASHINGTON, Republican, Congress, Republicans, Environmental Protection Agency, Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, Explosives, FBI, Caucus, White, WIC, House Republicans, SNAP, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Department, Rep, Giffords, House GOP, Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Transportation, Associated Press Locations: China
Late Friday, Moody's Investors Service cut the deposit rating of NYCB's main banking subsidiary by four notches, to Ba3 from Baa2, putting it three levels below investment grade. The downgrade could trigger contractual obligations from business clients of NYCB who require the bank to maintain an investment grade deposit rating, according to analysts who track the company. But the figures are from the day before Moody's began slashing the bank's ratings, sparking speculation about possible flight of deposits since then. For instance, while Fitch Ratings cut NYCB's credit ratings to junk last week, it kept the bank's long-term uninsured deposits at BBB-, one level above junk. To replace deposits, NYCB could raise brokered deposits, issue new debt or borrow from the Federal Reserve's facilities, but that would all probably come at a higher cost, McGratty said.
Persons: NYCB, Moody's, Keith Horowitz, Horowitz, John Pinto, Chris McGratty, NYCB didn't, McGratty Organizations: New York Community Bank, New, Community Bank, Moody's, Citigroup, Fitch, BBB, Federal, CNBC PRO Locations: New, Yonkers , New York, Baa2, Moody's
Here's a roundup of recent recession warnings from six experts:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEOAdvertisementThere's a long history of investors being caught off guard by sudden downturns, Dimon told CNBC this week. AdvertisementSteve Hanke, Johns Hopkins professorThe US economy is headed for a recession if history is any indication, Hanke told Business Insider this week. AdvertisementPaul Dietrich, B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist"We're still on the path to recession," Dietrich told Business Insider in a recent interview. AdvertisementJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO"I think recession is closer than most people think," Gundlach said in a recent YouTube video.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, There's, Dimon, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Zentner, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, We're, Dietrich, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, JPMorgan, CNBC, UBS, DoubleLine Locations: American, Russia, Ukraine, Israel
Seasonally speaking, stocks could be in for a pullback as the calendar turns to March in a presidential election year. In every March since 1950, the S & P 500 historically rises 1.1%, but the same month in presidential election years scores a smaller 0.4% advance on average. Currently, the S & P 500 is trading around the 5,100 level. But Hirsch advised investors to watch S & P 500 support levels closer to 4,800, the prior all-time high, or 4,600, the high from the summer of 2023. That's because Hirsch anticipates the S & P 500 will rise to 5,500 by year end, so any dips may prove a buying opportunity for investors.
Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, Russell, Hirsch, it's, you've, , Hirsch isn't, Katie Stockton, Sam Stovall, Stovall Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, CFRA Research
Following Thursday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 2,930 shares of BHC, decreasing its weighting in the portfolio to 0.82% from 1.1%. We're trimming roughly one-quarter of our Bausch Health position to manage our downside risk ahead of a key event. As the likelihood of monetizing its BLCO stake increases, BHC shares are expected to trade appreciably higher. BHC 1Y mountain Bausch Health Companies 1 year What we have on our hands is a binary situation and the outcome could go either way. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Xifaxan, Bausch, Jefferies, BHC, Johnson, haven't, we've, It's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Bausch Health, Jefferies, Health, CNBC
New York CNN —It’s no secret that commercial real estate (CRE) has become a source of stress for banks. Regional banks were on high alert recently after New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) reported steeper-than-expected future losses on commercial real estate loans. So why is it that the smaller, regional banks are so much more exposed to commercial real estate? Office real estate is among the bank’s smaller commercial real estate subcomponents. Robbins of Valley National Bank told CNN “we remain comfortable with our diverse and granular commercial real estate portfolio.”Office real estate is just one component of commercial real estate, albeit the most worrisome to banks and economists.
Persons: New York CNN —, Goldman Sachs, Fitch, Banks, BankRegData, Flagstar, , JPMorgan Chase, , Michael Brochstein, it’s, Ira Robbins, Robbins, CNN “, Carlos Barria, Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Flagstar Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, National Bank, JPMorgan, Getty, Valley National Bank, CNN, Fitch, FDIC, Reuters Locations: New York, Morristown , New Jersey
Read previewThe Yorkshire Three Peaks is a popular hike in England's Yorkshire Dales National Park. Along with my husband and two friends, I participated in the Yorkshire Three Peaks challenge, which calls on hikers to complete the 24-mile hike in under 12 hours. The experience was an endurance challenge, offering spectacular views, beautiful hill walking, and an incredible sense of achievement. Although we could've done a self-guided hike, we booked an organized walk so we wouldn't have to worry about navigation. AdvertisementThe Yorkshire Three Peaks challenge is a brilliant test of endurance that combines exertion with nature and serenity with popularity.
Persons: , Annabel Lee, would've, I'm, I'd Organizations: Service, Business, Ingleborough Locations: England's Yorkshire, ghent, Yorkshire, Oxfordshire, Horton, Whernside, Ribblehead
The Best Markets for First-Time Home Buyers
  + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Michael Kolomatsky | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
In a market with high prices, low inventory and high mortgage interest rates, no one faces a steeper uphill climb than first-time home buyers. Generally, they have lower incomes and are younger, meaning they’ve had less time to build good credit and amass a down payment. In all, 2,738 markets within the 100 largest U.S. metro areas (with populations of more than 5,000) were considered. For geographic diversity, the top 10 list was limited to one market per metro area. The median home price in each of the top 10 markets was below $300,000 — less than the national median of about $380,000 — and in four of the 10, it was below $200,000.
"The primary lesson is that seeking complete isolation of a large, complex and globally-integrated economy is costly and unattainable," Elina Ribakova wrote in the Financial Times on Tuesday. Russia's economy has managed to keep humming because Russian President Vladimir Putin has been preparing for sanctions since 2014. Failures in Russia, lessons for the futureEven so, the West can glean valuable lessons from its experience sanctioning an economy as large as Russia, said Ribakova. Advertisement"In the case of China, the US would need to look for vulnerabilities while remaining realistic about the limitations of sanctions," wrote Ribakova in FT.She added there must be steeper penalties for those who evade sanctions. "The experience with Russia is an invaluable opportunity to sharpen sanctions as a foreign policy tool," she wrote Ribakova.
Persons: , Elina Ribakova, Vladimir Putin, Ribakova Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Business, Monetary Fund, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Affairs Program, Kyiv School of Economics, Russia Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Moscow, Beijing, China, Taiwan
New York CNN —Four more private universities have agreed to settle a lawsuit which alleged they violated antitrust laws in determining financial aid amounts for admitted students, according to court documents filed Friday. Dartmouth College, and Rice, Vanderbilt and Northwestern universities agreed to pay a total of $166 million to settle claims filed in a 2022 class action lawsuit alleging the schools colluded on the amount of financial aid awarded to students, while favoring applicants from wealthier families. In 2022, the University of Chicago agreed to settle for $13.5 million. “Nearly 15% of this year’s first-year class is attending Dartmouth without responsibility for paying tuition, housing, meals and many other fees, and more than half of the class receives some form of financial aid. Meanwhile, Dartmouth, Rice, Vanderbilt and Northwestern’s settlements range from $33.75 million to $55 million each.
Persons: Brown, Emory, , , Robert Gilbert Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dartmouth College, Vanderbilt, Yale, University of Chicago, CNN, University, Dartmouth, ” Rice University Locations: New York, Rice, Northwestern, Columbia, Duke, Dartmouth
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