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☆ Analysis: How to characterize the American economy — from broken to just bizarre
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The US economy is going from broken to bizarre. Covid crashed the American economy three years ago with no playbook for the wild recovery that would follow. And yet, the US economy today is growing, the job market is strong, and the consumer is still spending. The economy has added an astonishing 1.2 million jobs this year and the jobless rate matches the lowest since 1969. Goldman Sachs pegs recession odds at 35% and Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week said the economy could still skirt a recession.

☆ Shah: Stability within fixed income should outperform even amid macro uncertainty
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShah: Stability within fixed income should outperform even amid macro uncertaintySeema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, discusses how to position ahead of the busiest week of earnings season.

LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - The banking turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is not yet over, and a significant number of banks will fail within two years, the CEO of hedge fund Man Group (EMG.L) told a Bloomberg conference in London on Wednesday. Asked whether the crisis in the sector was over, Man Group's Luke Ellis told delegates he did not think so. "I think we will have significantly more banks that don't exist in 12-24 months," Ellis said, adding that he thought smaller and regional banks in the United States and challenger banks in Britain could be at risk. Many hedge funds have made money from the banking sector volatility in recent days by betting against banks. Central banks globally have responded to the turmoil with coordinated measures to ensure the flow of cash between banks around the world.

New York CNN —Global banks just suffered their worst week since 2008. Credit Suisse and First Republic: Two more banks wobbled but remained upright through the week. Meanwhile, First Republic bank received a $30 billion lifeline on Thursday from some of the largest banks in the United States. US-traded shares of Credit Suisse were down nearly 7% and First Republic shares plunged by about 33% on Friday. That doesn’t mean that banks taking money from the FHLB and participating in the Federal Reserve’s emergency Bank Term Lending Program, which lent out $12 billion to banks this week, are in big trouble.

☆ Goldman Sachs just told us the banking crisis makes it more pessimistic about the economy - and other recession signals are blaring too
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The bank crisis that started with Silicon Valley Bank last Friday continues to unfold with what feels like to-the-minute developments. First Republic Bank branch on Park Avenue in New York City. In light of the bank runs, bank failures, and bank stock volatility, those odds are now at 35%, strategists said Thursday, citing "increased near-term uncertainty" surrounding the effects of small bank stress. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank marked the second and third largest bank failures in history, respectively, behind only Washington Mutual in 2008. She explained why you should be prepared for more interest-rate volatility as fears of a financial crisis rise.

☆ Premarket stocks: The banking meltdown put the Fed in a bind
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In prior years, the Fed was able to respond “unswervingly” to financial risks by loosening policy without worrying about price stability, he said. The reputation play: The question isn’t about what the Fed should do, it’s about what the Fed will do, said Daco. The central bank has the tools if needed to respond to a liquidity crisis “but this is not what we are seeing,” she told reporters on Thursday. Prior to the current stress in the banking sector, Fed officials were hinting that they would hike rates by half a point. “Every central bank tightening cycle in history has induced some sort of financial strains,” she wrote Thursday.

☆ Silicon Valley Bank and inflation complicate the Fed’s next move
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Everyday now we've been talking about Silicon Valley Bank — SVB — and I've had to catch myself several times from saying SBF — Sam Bankman-Fried — the guy behind the other big financial collapse in recent months. A) No rate hike at allB) 25 basis pointsC) 50 basis pointsTweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know. Bank stocks are rising again as nerves calm — though SVB-driven fears are still niggling. Bank of America picked out a batch of financial stocks that offer upside right now amid the chaos. The token soared 15% as the February CPI print fueled more speculation for a smaller rate hike.

☆ The new era of investing is here and stocks will no longer be the key player, a top global strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

I'm eager to share today's conversation with a top strategist about changes to the current investing landscape — but first I have a question. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management. Courtesy of Principal Asset ManagementSeema Shah is the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. Seema Shah: The key part of it is that we're not in an era of unlimited central bank liquidity. Historically, in a period of low economic growth and higher-than-expected inflation, it outperforms global fixed income and global equities, almost without exception.

☆ Why the 2023 stock market rally may be over already
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —So much for that big stock market comeback this year. At one point in mid-January, the average of 30 blue chips was up nearly 4% in 2023. It’s harder to justify more expensive valuations for the market in an environment where higher interest rates will likely eat into profits. He speculated that if inflation doesn’t cool off soon, the Fed may need to keep raising rates all the way up to 6%. “If there is a recession, profits will likely fall sharply.”Still, Kelly is cautiously optimistic that 2024 and beyond will be better years for earnings, and therefore stocks.

☆ 'The market has gone too far:' Chief global strategist predicts when the Fed will cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should not expect a cut in interest rates until 2024 thanks to a strong U.S. economy and the potential for a delayed recession, according to the chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors. In fact, the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer is the "scenario that we're looking at now," Shah told CNBC's Julianna Tatelbaum. The employment picture started 2023 on a stunningly strong note , with nonfarm payrolls posting their biggest gain since July 2022 despite a rapid increase in interest rates last year. 'Absolutely no cuts this year' When asked when investors should expect a cut in interest rates, Shah responded that it wouldn't be until 2024. Goldman Sachs expects interest rates to hit 5.38% by the second quarter, with the first cut to 5.13% expected in the first three months of next year.

☆ Chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors predicts when the Fed will cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChief global strategist at Principal Global Investors predicts when the Fed will cut ratesInvestors should not expect a cut in interest rates until 2024 because of a strong U.S. economy and the potential for a delayed recession, according to Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors.

New York CNN —Thursday afternoon will round out what has so far been a sobering earnings season for the Big Tech giants. Alphabet’s revenue will likely remain flat from last year and Amazon’s sales are expected to grow just shy of 6% year-over-year. All three companies’ profits are expected to fall from the year-ago quarter, with Amazon set to suffer the steepest drop with a decline of 40.6%. Then came the press conference, which led to a steep divergence between what the Fed thinks and what the Wall Street thinks. A cautionary tale: In mid-November, Ticketmaster’s site overloaded when fans tried to purchase pre-sale tickets for Taylor Swift’s upcoming tour.

☆ Financial assets are fighting the Fed and winning, John Hancock's Emily Roland
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinancial assets are fighting the Fed and winning, John Hancock's Emily RolandSeema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors, and Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss what they expect from Jerome Powell's upcoming comments and how the market will respond.

☆ Stock sentiment is positive despite lousy headlines
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —It’s only early January, but so far in 2023 the pendulum on Wall Street has swung (to paraphrase Billy Joel) from sadness to euphoria. But why is there such optimism on Wall Street all of a sudden? But it also showed the pace of job growth is slowing — and that could be a precursor to an eventual recession. But Wall Street is a funny place: Good news is often viewed as a bad sign, and vice versa. As long as the Fed can get inflation under control, investors might not be too concerned by a recession anyway.

☆ The UK will perform the worst out of the major developed economies in 2023, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe UK will perform the worst out of the major developed economies in 2023, strategist saysChief Strategist at Principal Global Investors Seema Shah expects a tough start to 2023 for the U.K. as household savings drop and the impacts of rate hikes are felt.

☆ Treasury yields fall slightly as markets digest Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Treasury yields were slightly lower in the early hours of Thursday, as markets digested the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate hike and signals that it will continue lifting rates to rein in inflation. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down by around 2 basis points at 3.4790%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped by a similar amount to 3.5170%. The Fed's hike on Wednesday marked a slowdown from the previous four increases of 75 basis points. It also projected that the "terminal rate" will rise to 5.1% before the end of the hiking cycle. Auctions will be held on Thursday for $45 billion each of 4-week and 8-week Treasury bills.

☆ US stocks finish mixed amid fears of more Fed hawkishness after hot jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow reversed higher as the Fed is still largely expected to slow its pace of rate hikes. But the hot jobs data could push the Fed to tack on more rate hikes in early 2023, some analysts say. JPMorgan Asset Management chief strategist David Kelly said the jobs report was likely distorted, and there's still plenty of room for the Fed to taper rate hikes and pause in 2023. Principal Asset Management chief strategist Seema Shah said the jobs report could push the Fed to raise rates above 5%. "This report doesn't mean the risks of the Fed raising rates to 6% are back on the table.

☆ Payrolls and wages blow past expectations, flying in the face of Fed rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Job growth was much better than expected in November despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive efforts to slow the labor market and tackle inflation. Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month while the unemployment rate was 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday. The rate increases have brought the Fed's benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%. "The labor market is hot, hot, hot, heaping pressure on the Fed to continue raising policy rates." "To be clear, strong wage growth is a good thing.

LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Investors have withdrawn $316 billion from credit funds this year, unwinding all of the previous year's inflows, BofA Global Research said in a note on Friday. In its latest note on fund flows, BofA said equities funds had seen inflows of $207 billion in 2022, below the "euphoric inflows" of the previous year. Equity funds suffered a $14.1 billion outflow in the largest exit in three months, BofA said, citing EPFR data. Cash funds attracted $31.1 billion of inflows and gold funds added $59 million, BofA added. In emerging markets, BofA said bonds had a 15th week of outflows, losing $500 million, while equities attracted $1.1 billion of inflows.

Blackstone (BX.N) limited withdrawals from its $69 billion unlisted REIT on Thursday after redemption requests hit pre-set limits amid investor concerns it was slow to adjust valuations as interest rate surged, a source close to the fund said. The development is yet another reminder of the risks facing not just sectors that are sensitive to higher interest rates but also broader financial markets, which have rallied sharply on hopes that interest rate hikes will slow. "REITS had a fantastic performance for a couple of months but when you have that outperformance, investors don't react to traditional fundamental signals such as rising rates," she said. But in recent weeks expectations have risen that the Fed will "pivot" from aggressive tightening, prompting investors to price in lower peak interest rates. Blackstone has reported a 9.3% year-to-date net return for the REIT, while the publicly traded Dow Jones U.S.

"While we have been cautious, there is an important shift going on with the COVID reopening." The protests were the strongest public defiance during Xi's political career, China analysts said. If protests were to continue, this would add to the risk premium, said Sean Taylor, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific at DWS Group. Social discontent stemming from the zero-COVID policy added to risks in executing and implementing government policies, said Mark Haefele, global wealth management CIO at UBS in Zurich. We also view China’s sluggish recovery as a risk for the global economy and markets."

"Protests are a concern in the short-term," Seema Shah, chief strategist at $500 billion asset manager Principal Global Investors told Reuters, adding that latest events supported the view that winds were changing. "While we have been cautious, there is an important shift going on with the COVID reopening." If protests were to continue, this would add to the risk premium, said Sean Taylor, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific at DWS Group. "We believe this divergence in view will drive an outperformance in A shares over H shares," Tang said. We also view China’s sluggish recovery as a risk for the global economy and markets."

☆ Shah: Earnings expectations will likely drop due to margin headwinds and a 2023 global recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShah: Earnings expectations will likely drop due to margin headwinds and a 2023 global recessionSeema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, joins Worldwide Exchange to discuss her expectations for the markets going into 2023.

☆ The U.S. stock market hasn't bottomed yet, says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. stock market hasn't bottomed yet, says strategistSeema Shah of Principal Asset Management says the U.S. stock market may rally in the fourth quarter, but in 2023, economic weakness will start to affect earnings and the market.

☆ The bear market blues: a diagnosis for our times
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Alden Bentley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

John Schott MD, a portfolio manager at The Colony Group, retired psychiatrist and a recognized expert on market psychology, coined the term Bear Market Depressive Syndrome (BMDS) in his 1998 book "Mind Over Money." After prolonged bull markets, investors tend to go into denial during bear markets. MARKET RISK FACTORS ALMOST UNPRECEDENTEDThe S&P 500 (.SPX) was down more than 27% year-to-date in mid-October. "That essentially moves the market at a faster pace than you would have seen in previous periods of market weakness." Negative sentiment readings indicate the market is running out of sellers, and are thus considered a bullish signal.

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