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☆ 'I think they're overdoing it': A chief economist who called the 2008 recession says the Fed is 'making a huge mistake' by continuing their rate hikes — and warns the economy is likely to unravel in s
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He's now warning a recession is on the US economy's doorstep amid a credit crunch. One is the fact that the Fed's rate hikes haven't completely worked their way into the economy yet. A credit crunch means consumers are less able to spend and businesses are more likely to fail, heightening recession risks. Well no, it means everything was fine, but it doesn't guarantee that things will remain fine," Shepherdson said. "The credit crunch plus just the lag effect of the interest rate increases I think means it is not going to be fine."

☆ The economist who discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator now says his model will prove correct again as the Fed continues to hike rates — and that a downturn will strike anytime
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Harvey discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator. Back in December, Cam Harvey made an eyebrow-raising call: the inverted yield curve, the famous recession indicator he discovered in the 1980s, would produce its first false reading since the 1960s. Harvey's yield curve looks at yields on three-month bills and 10-year notes; the latter are normally higher. Another reason Harvey's view has dimmed is that short-term inflation expectations have come down, meaning the real-yield curve (which is adjusted for inflation expectations) has now inverted. In December, Harvey said that much higher short-term inflation expectations relative to long-term expectations meant that real yields weren't inverted.

☆ Rob Arnott says there's now an 80% chance of a recession amid a credit crunch. Here are his top recommendations on where to park your money — including one trade he believes will deliver 15% yearly re
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He said US value stocks and developed economy non-US stocks offer the best returns. But there are still opportunities for big returns in US value stocks, he said. But an even bigger opportunity lies in non-US stocks in developed economies, which Arnott believes will return 15% on a yearly basis over the next decade. The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) is one way to gain exposure to non-US stocks, while the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) offers exposure to US value stocks. Arnott made the same calls on non-US stocks and US value stocks back in December.

☆ OPEC’s surprise production cut complicates the Fed’s fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Energy prices across the globe surged last year when Russia invaded Ukraine, fueling global inflation just as the world’s major economies were beginning to rebalance after the pandemic. Now, with oil prices surging once again, headline inflation could remain elevated for longer or even rise. Even core inflation could be affectedWhile Fed officials consider multiple economic metrics in order to inform their decision making, one of their main points of focus is core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. However, higher oil prices can eventually push up core prices if they remain elevated for long enough. However, he acknowledged the eventual impact of higher prices.

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market says the S&P 500 has another 45% downside as investors remain blind to signs that a recession is hurtling toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, stock market investors remain bullish, he said. He's been warning of a significant stock market decline since late 2021,"People are ignoring all the lessons of history," Wolfenbarger told Insider on Friday. His bearish outlook stems from how high stock valuations are relative to 10-year Treasury yields. Wolfenbarger also has company in thinking that stock market investors aren't heeding the warnings of a coming downturn. Yet, the stock market doesn't seem to reflect this uncertainty, he said.

The slew of soft economic data has added to fears of an impending recession in the world's largest economy, putting a lid on risk appetite and sending traders in search of some safe haven assets. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% at 101.95, having slid to a two-month trough of 101.40 in the previous session. The Japanese yen also found some support from safe haven bids and was last roughly 0.2% higher at 131.01 per dollar. "Weak economic data continues to weigh in on investor sentiment, triggering a flight-to-safety bid," analysts at Westpac said in a note to clients. The soft data sent U.S. shares lower on Wednesday STX/ while Treasuries advanced, which saw the benchmark 10-year yield falling to its lowest since September .

☆ Morning Bid: And it was all going so well
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Amanda Cooper. The prospect of a sustained string of interest rate rises last year led to an epic sell-off in bonds and battered sectors of the stock market, such as tech. As 2023 dawned, data showed the economy was holding up, the consumer was resilient, and, just as importantly, so were corporate profits. But this week's data releases have served as a reminder that policy transmission - the effect of changes in interest rates on the real world - is alive and well. Twelve months and nearly 500 basis points of rate rises will eventually take their toll.

☆ 5 must-see charts that show why the economy is barreling toward disaster — putting stocks at risk for massive declines
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening in labor market conditions," Powell said. "Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run." A large enough pullback in lending will send the economy into a downward spiral, he said. "If you get a credit crunch, you could have an immediate downturn in the economy, a very quick downturn," he said. Credit spreads are the gap between high-risk bond yields and yields on risk-free bonds.

☆ A senior economist at Interactive Brokers shares why home prices across the country will fall another 11% over the next year — and why a 2008-size crash he had expected won't come after all
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres says home prices will drop 15% peak-to-trough. The weakening in the housing market will continue into Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024, according to José Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers. Affordability is measured by home prices and mortgage rates relative to incomes. Yardeni ResearchTorres thinks affordability will stay at relatively depressed levels in the months ahead because he sees mortgage rates staying high. As for mortgage rates, consensus among firms like Goldman Sachs, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody's, and others is that 30-year rates will remain above 5%.

☆ How First Republic's courtship of the wealthy led to meltdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Lawrence Delevingne | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

March 27 (Reuters) - First Republic Bank (FRC.N) became the epicenter of the U.S. regional banking crisis after the wealthy clients it courted to fuel its breakneck growth started withdrawing deposits and left the bank reeling. Reuters GraphicsFor years, First Republic lured high net-worth customers with preferential rates on mortgages and loans. Morgan Stanley analysts estimated a deposit outflow of nearly half of total deposits according to a March 20 note. First Republic's loan book and investment portfolio also became less valuable as interest rates rose, which is hampering a capital raise. "Wealthy customers were drawn to First Republic in part because they could get large mortgages at rock-bottom interest rates," said McCoy.

☆ The Fed's rate hike policy doesn't have many fans — but abandoning the inflation target would be a 'disaster' that brings the economy back to the 1970s, a Fed official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The president of the St. Louis Fed said it would be a disaster for the Fed to abandon its inflation target. The Fed has been hiking interest rates aggressively to get inflation down to 2%. The Fed then targeted inflation aggressively and adopted the 2% inflation target in the 1990s. Ethan Harris, a Bank of America economist, wrote in a December note there's little evidence that the 2% inflation target is the "optimal target," per Fortune. Higher interest rates make borrowing — like mortgages to credit cards more expensive.

☆ Morning Bid: Banks queue round the block at Fed discount window
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne ColeIt's been a slow day in Asian markets, no doubt with everyone tired and emotional after another rough week. The whole yield curve from one month to 30 years is now below the overnight Fed rate, which is something you see only once in a very blue moon. Rather, history shows the curve steepens like this just before recession arrives, as short-term yields dive in anticipation of rate cuts. Fed futures are currently 65% for no hike in May and 85% for a rate cut in July, a U-turn that the Fed is surely hoping to avoid. Yet the strains are showing in the Fed books as borrowing at its discount window as of Wednesday was a hefty $110.2 billion.

While remote workers are hitting the green on weekday afternoons, productivity isn't dropping. That's good news for leisure businesses and shows remote work has changed people's work structures. While some companies have called employees back to the office, Bloom doesn't think remote work is going anywhere. All those remote workers hitting the green doesn't necessarily mean people are working less. This will raise 'Golf productivity' — the number of golf courses played (and revenue raised) per course."

☆ 'A terrible environment for equities': Market veteran predicts when stocks will pull back — and how to trade it
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. equity market is flashing warning signs, according to chief market strategist Chris Watling. The S & P 500 was trading at 3,985 on Wednesday morning at a price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 20x even as the U.S. central bank attempts to tighten financial conditions. .SPX 1Y line While investors may be tempted to stay in the market due to a lack of better options, Watling suggests otherwise. Stocks have risen over the past five months partly in response to a lack of distress in the high-yield bond market. This seems to be defying credit conditions wanted by the Federal Reserve, and Watling suggests it could be a short-term liquidity story driving the market.

☆ These 13 beaten-down stocks offer a 'margin of safety' from a possible credit shock, according to a top-1% fund manager
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Higher-than-anticipated interest rates could lead to economic pain and even a credit shock. Top-1% fund manager James Abate explained why he hasn't given up on stocks yet. Here are 13 value stocks to buy in this shaky environment, according to Abate. Leading fund manager James Abate isn't predicting a repeat of the financial crisis, but he is worried that banks could get their biggest test in years if interest rates keep rising. While nothing is guaranteed in markets, Abate said that 2023 will provide many opportunities for fund managers like him to outperform.

☆ People who moved to Tennessee for cheaper homes and a laid-back life say they're happy — for the most part
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-26 | by ( Jordan Pandy | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

The 50-year Florida resident decided to pack up and move to Memphis, Tennessee, for a more manageable mortgage payment while on a fixed income. Foster said clients have recently moved to Tennessee from New York, New Jersey, and California. He traded snowy Buffalo for the ease of southern livingMichael and Danielle Ekstrum moved to Tennessee after becoming empty nesters in 2018. A retiree fed up with California's overcrowding bought a home in Tennessee without thinking twiceMichael and Bonnie Tyler moved from Sacramento, California, to Jonesborough, a historic town in eastern Tennessee. "There's too much traffic, too many people, it's way too expensive, and there's no water," Tyler told Insider.

The 2% inflation target is key to the Federal Reserve's vision for stable prices in the U.S. economy, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. But, "the 2% inflation target, it's relatively arbitrary," Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute, told CNBC. "We led the way in inflation targeting," Arthur Grimes, professor of wellbeing and public policy at Victoria University, told CNBC. Canada announced its inflation target in 1991, and the United Kingdom followed suit in 1992. Then, Sweden and Finland declared inflation targets in 1993, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

I read a lot about saving and investing and use investing apps that make it easy to build wealth. While these numbers look discouraging, I've never been more encouraged to build wealth as Black woman in America. I have four siblings, and we often talk about how we want to be the generation to build wealth and pass something on to our kids. Editor's Rating 4.36/5 A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star Editor's Rating 4.34/5 A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star Editor's Rating 3.9/5 A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star Learn more On Public's website Learn more On Wealthfront's website Learn more On Acorns' websiteIn 2017, I opened an IRA for the first time, and just contributed whatever I could. Overall, putting in the time and money to learn more about finances has helped me make wise money decisions and have a better shot at building wealth as a Black woman.

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief says he thinks the S&P 500 will fall another 17% as investors ignore a growing mountain of tell-tale recession signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Doll says the S&P 500 will drop to 3,400 if a mild recession unfolds. If a more normal recession (more severe than a mild downturn) comes, Doll said the index could fall to 3,000. The Fed's recession probability tracker based on the yield curve also now puts the odds of a recession at 57%. Subramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall as low as 3,000, a view shared by Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. If trouble hits, like Doll and much of Wall Street expects, stocks could extend their fall to new lows.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets drop on hot economy — and chance of 0.5% interest rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

James Bullard, president of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, in Moran, Wyoming, U.S., on Thursday, Aug. 22, 2019. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. With each hotter-than-expected inflation report, markets rose. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Bullard's hawkishness, saying she wants higher rate increases. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Premarket stocks: SpinCos are the new SPACs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The parent company may distribute the new company’s stock to its shareholders, allowing them to own shares in both. These smaller, newly formed companies are still in the process of establishing themselves in the market and often have lower profit margins than their parent company. It costs a lot to borrow these days and investors are looking for high profits and value stocks, writes Goldman. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have added significantly to the cost of government debt. “As we add trillion after trillion to our debt, the problem only gets worse and compounds.

☆ The 'singles tax': People who live alone are paying thousands more on rent than their coupled-up counterparts
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

It costs to be single: Americans living alone are facing a "singles tax" that costs thousands. A recent Zillow analysis compares how much more single Americans are paying to live alone in a one-bedroom place, compared to couples in the same spots. The results: On average, solo Americans are paying a "singles tax" of almost $7,000 every year. Those three all have singles tax of above $10,000 per Zillow's analysis on one-bedrooms. Silvia Tergas, a financial planner with Prudential, told Insider the singles tax is also reflected in the actual tax system, which largely benefits married couples who file jointly.

Black families face unique, racist barriers to creating wealth, from homeownership to business ownership, says Salene Hitchcock-Gear, president of individual life insurance at Prudential. To work towards closing the racial wealth gap and building generational wealth for Black Americans, it's important to understand what obstacles stand in the way. Black Americans face lower median credit scoresWhile the credit scoring system was created to take the bias out of lending, it's become yet another hurdle that prevents many Black Americans from building wealth. The bottom lineAfter many generations of being excluded from wealth-building, Black Americans still face a unique set of challenges stemming from racial discrimination. However, making homebuying and financial literacy more accessible could start to narrow the wide racial wealth gap in the US, and help Black families build generational wealth.

☆ A real-estate investor who's acquired over 50 properties with the BRRRR method shares his best advice for using the strategy in today's market — especially as home prices fall and rents drop around th
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Sadaram used the BRRRR method, which may be becoming less viable in certain markets. The BRRRR method — that's buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat — is a tried and true real-estate investing method that's helped countless investors scale up their portfolios. Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisFalling home prices and rents make for a daunting environment for real-estate investors, especially those looking to scale up using strategies like the BRRRR method. But Sadaram is still convinced the BRRRR method is the best way to build a portfolio, even in today's market. Sadaram's best advice for using the BRRRR method in today's marketThere are, however, some things investors need to keep in mind amid the bearish environment, he said.

☆ Studying abroad can cost over $16,000 per semester—here's how students plan to pay for it
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Kamaron Mcnair | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As a result, many students are turning to other options to pay for studying abroad — if they're available. The cost of studying abroad may be one of the biggest deciding factors in who gets to go. Black students made up just 4% of students who studied abroad in the 2020-21 school year. While the share of non-white students studying abroad increased by 10 percentage points between the 2010-11 and the 2020-21 academic years, white students still make up 68% of students studying abroad, according to the Institute for International Education. While white students and Black students take out loans at similar rates — 40% of white students use loans to pay for college compared with 50% of Black students, according to Education Data Initiative — Black students often have a harder time paying back their loans.

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