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The slow spring sales pace is a combination of still-high prices, elevated mortgage rates and a critical shortage of homes for sale. At the current sales pace that represents a three-month supply. Strong demand has kept a floor under home prices, which would normally drop more given the slow sales pace. While sales of homes in all price tiers are now lower compared with a year ago, sales of homes priced between $250,000 and $500,000 were down 12%. Nearly three-quarters of the homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, Danielle Hale Organizations: National Association of Realtors, That's, NAR, Realtor.com Locations: Northeast, Midwest, South, Redfin
We're revisiting housing inventory today because it's one of the key sticking points that's keeping home prices elevated and buyers wary. Get this: The housing market today has 39% fewer homes for sale than before the pandemic. Mortgage rates are currently about double what they were in 2021, when ultra-low rates fueled a home-buying boom. That could help influence mortgage rates to go even higher this year. People who are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for mortgage rates to decline, should know that's unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future."
Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, Jerome Powell, Joe Raedle, There's, Powell, Redfin's Chen Zhao, Edward Seiler, Tweet, JIM WATSON, Morgan Stanley, Steve Eisman, Larry Summers, Richard Branson's, Phil Rosen, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: realtors, Mortgage Bankers Association, US, Getty, Fed, FedEx, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury, Virgin Galactic Locations: homebuilding, New York, London
The current housing market offers 39% fewer homes for sale than pre-pandemic, Redfind said. Homeowners are unwilling to part ways with low mortgage rates secured before borrowing costs went up. Mortgage rates are now hovering close to 7%, nearly double where they were at in 2021, when ultra-low rates fueled a home-buying boom. "People who are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for mortgage rates to decline, should know that's unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. Edward Seiler, the associate vice president for housing economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association, told Insider earlier that the housing market has never been this unaffordable for new buyers.
Persons: Redfind, , Chen Zhao, Redfin, Edward Seiler, Seiler Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Mortgage Bankers Association Locations: homebuilding
Elon Musk said this week that home prices will tumble soon, following those of commercial real estate. Redfin's CEO responded, saying the loss of demand for commercial real estate is driving up demand for residential real estate. However, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman countered his take in a tweet of his own on Tuesday:"But the loss in demand for commercial real estate is what's driving demand for residential real estate. The remote-work boom and waning need for office space has led to many vacant commercial real estate buildings, which Musk's initially referred to. Zillow has said that home prices have already bottomed, while Moody's and Fannie Mae still expect prices to drop further.
Persons: Elon Musk, Glenn Kelman, , Billionaire Elon Musk, Musk's, Kelman, Zillow, Fannie Mae Organizations: Service, Privacy, Billionaire, Federal
The city near San Francisco is one of the richest areas of the country, on average. It's also part of a trend which has wealthy Americans creating trusts or LLCs to buy homes. It's also a prime example of a new trend among the country's wealthiest homebuyers, according to the Chronicle. On one block highlighted by the Chronicle's report, just two of the 12 homes are actually owned by individual people, with the rest owned by trusts, LLCs, or other kinds of corporations. "If someone sets up a trust, it's almost like a corporation that continues to live beyond the person," Michael Repka, CEO and managing broker for DeLeon Realty, told the San Francisco Chronicle.
Today we're talking housing — but before we get to that, the big thing to watch today is President Joe Biden's meeting with congressional leaders. Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesThe housing market seems to be taking a page from the labor market's playbook right now. Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist took to Twitter last week to describe the sluggish sector:"Homeowners are quiet quitting the housing market." In effect, more and more homeowners are choosing to stay put with their low mortgage rates locked in, rather than trying to finance a new home at rates that are hovering around 20-year highs. That's due mostly to high rates causing homes to sit on the market longer than usual, which leads to accumulating inventory.
San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles are the top cities Americans want to leave, according to Redfin. New York City, which comes in second place on Redfin's list, is the US' most populous city, with around 8.5 million residents in July 2021, per US Census Bureau estimates. The country's next biggest cities are Los Angeles, with an estimated population of 3.8 million, and Chicago, at 2.7 million, per US Census Bureau data. For people considering leaving New York City, Miami was the most popular city, while for Los Angeles this was Las Vegas. The list of cities Americans are looking to leave is more diverse, with nine states featured.
Some tips include asking for concessions, buying new, waiting, and buying in cash. In a recent post, Redfin economists shared their top tips for homebuyers right now. 7 tips for homebuyersThe first tip from Chen Zhao, Redfin's economics research team lead, is to wait if you can. Considering how high mortgage rates are, a rate buydown is a concession that could help shoppers buy themselves some time for rates to fall. One counterpoint to this is that home values just about everywhere have also climbed since the start of the pandemic.
In that market, all-cash offers were king to sellers because they ensured quicker, stress-free closings. According to Redfin, all-cash offers quadrupled the chances that a homebuyer would win a bidding war. Ribbon has since paused its all-cash offering, but some of the other firms that Insider featured last year are still making all-cash offers. FlyhomesFlyhomes is a real-estate brokerage that featured all-cash-offer services for years and distinguished itself in December 2021 with a free all-cash-offer product. "The value to the buyer is different than in a seller's market," Garg said in the email.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're still at half the housing inventory of 2016 through 2019, says Redfin's Glenn KelmanRedfin CEO Glenn Kelman joins Brian Sullivan and the 'CNBC Special: Taking Stock' to discuss housing data and what's really going on in the market right now.
According to Black Knight, 14 of the 50 largest US markets have seen home prices fall by 6% or more. The San Francisco Bay Area leads the nation with the largest drop in home prices. Softening home prices in some of the most expensive cities will benefit buyers. But there's a chance for them to come off the sidelines — in fact, some already have — as prices fall in some key areas. Leading the nation with the largest drop from the 2022 peak is San Francisco, where home prices have fallen nearly 17%.
U.S. renters are finally getting a break on their rent, with prices dropping in 11 major markets in January, according to new data by online realtor Redfin. Median asking rent dropped to $1,942 last month, down from a 2022 peak of $2,053. Only four cities posted double-digit rent growth in January 2022, compared with 38 in January 2021. The number of cities with price drops also continues to climb, from just two a year ago to 11 in January. January rent prices for this study are based on 20,000 apartment listings from Rent.com for the 50 largest metro areas in the country.
The US housing market is warming back up because of declining mortgage rates. The average for 30-year mortgage rates have just dipped below 6% for the first time in months. Mortgage rates dipped below 6% on February 2, according to Mortgage Daily News, marking their lowest reading since September 2022. The declining mortgage rates have helped to bring buyers back to the market and bolster purchasing power. "We went from sellers controlling everything, to now being more of a neutral, and even almost a buyer's market."
Monthly housing costs in San Francisco have declined by 14.8% since their peak in October 2022, Redfin said in a report. One agent said that mass layoffs and lower stock prices could mean that home prices have further room to fall. However, housing inventory still remains "scarce" in the Bay Area as competition heats back up. While the Bay Area is well-known for its notoriously high housing costs, recent homebuyers in San Francisco have been benefitted the most from falling mortgage rates and softening demand. Monthly housing costs have dropped from more than $9,800 at the peak of the market in October 2022 to around $8,500 today.
The Biden administration announced several new protections for renters on January 25. At the same time, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, an independent organization that helps regulate the mortgage market, will create new policies that encourage development of affordable-rental units. Insider reviewed the documents the White House released concerning the new initiatives. The idea comes as many renters continue to organize in order to combat what they see as unwarranted rent increases and evictions. Some home builders like Jerry Konter, the chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, disagreed with the new protections for renters.
Sam Bankman-Fried's lawyer said the ex-crypto mogul and his parents had been subjected to harassment and threats. This includes a recent "security incident" at his parents' Bay Area home, the lawyer said. "Recently, the Bankman-Frieds had a security incident at their home when a black car drove into the metal barricade set up outside their home," Everdell wrote. "This incident underscores the risk to the Bankman-Frieds' privacy and security," he said. In a filing from January 3, attorney Mark Cohen had said that Bankman-Fried's parents "have become the target of intense media scrutiny, harassment, and threats."
Climate change is spurring tropical storms in Florida, putting coastal cities at more risk for flooding. Glenn Kelman, Redfin's CEO, said homeowners in flood zones will have trouble selling to regular buyers. Glenn Kelman, the CEO of real estate brokerage Redfin, said it's a problem that is likely to escalate as climate change ramps up. According to Kelman, investors are stepping in because they are the only ones that have the cash and can "withstand the risk posed by climate change." "I visited the Tampa Bay area right after Hurricane Ian hit just to check on the welfare of our own employees.
Here's how Miller, who doesn't think the housing market is going to crash, became a beacon of trust. The call was from a journalist at an international paper asking for Miller's comment on the US housing market for a story. The 62-year-old founder of the real-estate-appraisal and data firm Miller Samuel is probably the most-quoted man in real estate, with some 2,469 news citations, according to the database LexisNexis. Today, Miller Samuel has replaced Scantrons with iPods, iPhones, and a CoreLogic appraisal software called A La Mode. Today, there's much more data than there was when he started Miller Samuel, but also a lot more "crap," Miller said.
Higher mortgage rates push people to pay all cash for homes to save on interest, Redfin said. Rising interest rates and persistent inflation increased fears of a recession in 2023. Cleveland saw its share of all-cash offers grow from 32% last year to 42% in October, while Philadelphia's grew from 29% to 37%. Selma Hepp, the interim chief economist at CoreLogic, told Insider in November that mortgage rates could go as low as 5.5% by the end of next year. "For homebuyers, it's good to be aware that you can avoid paying high interest rates by paying in cash," Fairweather said.
Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced cofounder and former CEO of collapsed crypto exchange FTX, is moving back in with his parents. ReutersBankman-Fried, who faces multiple fraud charges tied to the spectacular collapse of FTX, was released on $250 million bail Thursday, shortly after he landed in the US after being extradited from the Bahamas. As part of his bail terms, Bankman-Fried, who also cofounded crypto trading firm Alameda Research, is required to stay at his parents' home while he awaits trial. His parents, Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried, live in a multimillion-dollar home in Stanford, in the San Francisco Bay Area, according to news reports and state records. Zillow estimates the value of the five-bedroom home at about $4 million, while Redfin's estimate is $3.1 million.
Mortgage rate buydowns are a home financing tool that provides buyers with a lower interest rate. Homebuilders are employing rate buydowns the most in areas where home prices are falling the fastest. A prevalent trend that builders are leaning into in order to help them sell more homes amid an increasingly tough economic climate is paying for mortgage rate buydowns for prospective buyers. A rate buydown is an upfront payment for "discount points" at closing to reduce the rate on a fixed-rate mortgage term. The company is offering what's known as a 2-1 buydown where a buyer's mortgage rate is decreased by 2% during their first year and 1% in their second year before returning to a fixed rate for the remaining duration of the loan.
Nearly 25% of the property search queries on online real estate brokerage Redfin.com are for cities where the person doesn't live, according to the company's most recent data. Out of 100 metro areas examined during the three months ended in October, the following 10 cities had the highest net inflow of property searches on Redfin's website. Net inflow is the number of people looking to move into a city minus the number of people looking to leave. To measure the share of homebuyers looking to relocate from one metro to another, a person browsing Redfin for properties in another city counts as a migrant. The net inflow rankings were compiled based on the total number of migrants.
RH CEO Gary Friedman told investors on an earnings call this week that the housing market is collapsing. He previously told investors that "anyone who doesn't think we're in a recession is crazy'"Other real estate experts think the market data isn't a perfect indicator of future performance. He points to low homebuyer demand and the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes to tame inflation for the market decline. "The housing market has collapsed, and it's gone down pretty viciously as interest rates went up," Friedman said during the call. Meanwhile, Friedman estimated that the luxury housing market, which is RH's primary market, could see a 35% to 40% decline in activity in Q4 because of high interest rates.
Rents are expected to grow more than home prices in 2023, according to Realtor.com. But mortgage rates are also expected to grow, potentially negating any advantages to buying. However, mortgage rates are expected to rise more than they already have this year. A 2023 housing forecast from Realtor.com predicted a 7.4% average for mortgage rates in 2023, which would push homebuyers' monthly payments up and generally make homeownership more costly. According to Realtor.com, mortgage payments will likely increase by 28% in 2023, making the typical monthly payment about $2,430.
Considering sales alone, these cities were among those that saw the most dramatic declines, according to data technology company Zonda. "There are many forces working against the housing market right now," Zonda Chief Economist Ali Wolf said in a report last week. By late spring, the markets were feeling the pain. In both Austin and Phoenix, home prices are rising at a pace 23% slower than they were last year, the report shows. Since late Spring, home prices in Phoenix have dropped 6.7% and in Austin, prices have dropped by over 10% since the end of May.
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