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The U.S. economy has avoided a threatened banking crisis and financial markets have not only aligned with the Federal Reserve's tight-credit policies but of late even helped the process by bidding up market interest rates. "I think Powell’s main effort is going to be explaining to what degree you want to hold (interest rates) higher for longer in the current outlook." Investors in contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark interest rate currently expect the Fed to begin reducing the policy rate next year from the current level set between 5.25% and 5.5%. Fed officials in fact have begun discussing the possibility of rate cuts down the road, at least in the context of steadily falling inflation. If inflation does decline as expected, Fed officials including Powell have suggested rate reductions might be appropriate to maintain a roughly constant inflation-adjusted "real rate."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Urquhart, JACKSON, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, who've, isn't, Adam Posen, William English, Donald Kohn, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Kansas, Fed, Northern Trust, Bank of England's, Committee, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Yale School of Management, Brookings Institution, Thomson Locations: Teton, Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Washington
He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.
Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's premature to think China is due for a 'Lehman Moment': Peterson Institute's Nicholas LardyNicholas Lardy, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the possibility of China heading into a 'Lehman Moment,' exports suggesting growth of underlying demand in China, and more.
Persons: Peterson, Nicholas Lardy Nicholas Lardy Organizations: Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: China
Analysts said the U.S. was making such moves with an eye on rising tensions over Taiwan, given that the potential fallout from a conflict between China and Taiwan would be "unimaginable." Yurchenko, who spoke to CNBC ahead of the Wednesday announcement, dubbed the scale of the risks regarding Taiwan as "unimaginable." Beijing, meanwhile, has called for "reunification" with Taiwan, last year describing its status in a white paper as an "unalterable" part of China. watch nowElina Ribakova, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that China was watching the West's approach to Russia closely. Western sanctions against Moscow keep coming, almost 1½ years after Russian forces crossed Ukraine's borders.
Persons: Drew Angerer, Joe Biden, Olena, it's, Olena Yurchenko, Yurchenko, Kyle Bass, Xi Jinping, Biden, Ukraine's Yurchenko, they've, Elina Ribakova, Ribakova, Daniel Ferrie, I'm Organizations: Getty, Wednesday, Foreign Ministry, Economic Security, of, of Ukraine, CNBC, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Moscow, Ukraine, European, European Union, Hayman Capital Locations: China, disassociation, Beijing, U.S, Russia, Taiwan, United States, Washington, of Ukraine, India, Taiwan Strait, Ukraine, Ukraine's, Moscow
Why China’s Economy Is Stumbling - The New York Times
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Decades of miraculous growth had transformed a desperately poor nation into an economic superpower, with a gross domestic product that by some measures was larger than America’s. China’s aggressive response to Covid was widely praised; its Belt and Road Initiative, a huge program of infrastructure investments around the world, was clearly a bid for global influence, maybe even supremacy. But now China is stumbling. Its “zero Covid” policy of locking cities down at the first indication of an outbreak proved untenable, but abandoning the policy hasn’t produced the expected economic surge. Some analysts attribute China’s stumble to policies of its current leadership.
Persons: Covid, Adam Posen Organizations: Initiative, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: China, Japan, U.S
Murky supply chainsNot all advanced technologies are subject to Western sanctions on Russia. So, a Russian military, as well as its civilian economy, have become dependent," Sam Bendett, advisor at the Center for Naval Analyses, said. Meanwhile, sanctions on Russia are largely limited to Ukraine's Western allies, meaning that many countries continue to trade with Russia. And this is what the Russian industry as well as the Russian military and its intelligence services are taking advantage of," Bendett said. Sanctions clampdownThe burgeoning trade flows have prompted calls from Western allies to either get more countries on board with sanctions, or slap secondary sanctions on certain entities operating within those countries in a bid to stifle Russia's military strength.
Persons: Elina Ribakova, KSE, Sam Bendett, spokespeople, Bendett, Sellers Organizations: CNBC, Semiconductors, Peterson Institute for International Economics, KSE Institute, Kyiv School, Economics, United Arab, Moscow, Royal United Services Institute, U.S ., Center for Naval, Russian, Economic Security, of, CNBC Exports, Union, Russian Federation, European Union, Peterson Institute for International Locations: Russia, Moscow, China, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, Russia's, U.S, Japan, Germany, Russian, microchips, Hong Kong, of Ukraine, Caucasus, Central Asia, Georgia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan
China is suffering from "economic long COVID," Adam Posen wrote in Foreign Affairs. Like other authoritarian regimes, China's economic development is following a predictable pattern, he noted. "Low appetite for illiquid investment and low responsiveness to supportive macroeconomic policies: that, in a nutshell, is economic long COVID," he wrote. Despite the West's growing tensions with Beijing, China's economic woes aren't necessarily good news for its rivals either, Posen said. "When another global recession hits, China's growth will not help revive demand abroad as it did last time.
Persons: Adam Posen, Peterson, , Goldman Sachs, It's, Xi, COVID, Posen, there's Organizations: Foreign Affairs, Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Bank of America, Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Development, China's Communist Party Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Posen
"You're too old to work at 35, but too young to retire at 60," one person wrote, bemoaning the "curse." It refers, specifically, to the typical Chinese employer's preference for hiring workers who haven't reached the sell-by date of their 35th birthday. And it's not just about finding work — Chinese workers being phased out at what was previously viewed as the prime of their careers means their livelihoods could be seriously affected. "At this point in time, youth unemployment is high, so many young workers are willing to work for less. Seah told Insider that increased competition for younger workers "will eventually drive up youth wages, making them relatively more expensive to hire."
Persons: haven't, Hector Retamal, Huang, Tania Lennon, Lennon, I, Kevin Frayer, workhorses, Kelvin Seah, Seah, aren't, National University of Singapore's Seah Organizations: Twitter, Service, Getty, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Institute for Management Development, China Initiative, Bureau of Statistics, National University of Singapore, National Bureau of Statistics, Employers, National University of Singapore's Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Weibo, Beijing, AFP, Quy Huy
Biden's economic agenda could make inflation worse, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said. But Summers said he disagrees with the principle behind those policies, warning that they could contribute to higher prices. The manufacturing policies also ignore the benefits of globalization and trade with other countries, which has lowered inflation, Summers said. Despite strong criticism from some commentators, other economists have defended Biden's economic plan. Bidenomics has largely been a success, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said, given the dramatic fall in inflation over the past year.
Persons: Larry Summers, Joe Biden's, Summers, Bidenomics, Paul Krugman Organizations: Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, US, CNN Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine
New York CNN Business —Larry Summers, the former Obama and Clinton official, slammed parts of President Joe Biden’s economic agenda as “increasingly dangerous” this week, saying it could end up causing higher prices for Americans. Specifically, Summers took issue with the administration’s trade stance, efforts to prop up US manufacturing and its antitrust crackdown. “It is wrong to suppose that manufacturing-based economic nationalism is a route to higher incomes or better standards of living for the middle class,” Summers said. Manufacturing on the riseBiden has made reviving American manufacturing a central part of his economic agenda. The White House has hailed a surge in private investment in American manufacturing under Biden’s watch.
Persons: Larry Summers, Obama, Joe Biden’s, , ” Summers, Summers, Biden, ” Biden, Morgan Stanley, , General Merrick Garland Organizations: New York CNN, Clinton, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Harvard, Harvard University, Treasury, , Justice Department Locations: America, Philadelphia,
Here's the inflation breakdown for June, in one chart
  + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +7 min
The CPI is a key barometer of inflation, measuring prices of anything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts and concert tickets. Hourly earnings increased 0.2%, on average, from May to June after accounting for inflation, according to BLS data. 'Encouraging' inflation signals moving forwardThe inflation slowdown has been broad-based, Zandi said. watch nowGrocery price inflation is also down significantly from its peak around 14% last summer, which had been the highest rate since 1979. Economists say it's a near certainty that housing prices will continue to fall through the second half of the year.
Persons: Michael M, Mark Zandi, Zandi, we're, Mark Hamrick, Andrew Hunter, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Stephanie Roth, Roth Organizations: Lincoln Market, Santiago, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, BLS, Capital Economics, Finance, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Morgan Private Bank Locations: Brooklyn , New York, U.S, Ukraine
[1/3] US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during her meeting with China's Vice Premier He Lifeng (out of frame) at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on July 8, 2023. Yellen said nothing publicly to indicate that the U.S. was poised to ease tariffs, but commentators in China were hopeful, amid a U.S. Trade Representative review. "While U.S might continue its technological curbs on China, a reduction or exemption of non-core tariffs against China is possible." Yellen last year advocated eliminating some duties on "non-strategic" goods as a way to ease some specific costs amid high inflation. Haley has said she would push Congress to revoke China’s trade status until China curbs its alleged role in the fentanyl trade.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Pedro PARDO, Janet Yellen's, Biden, Harry Broadman, Donald Trump's, Premier Li Qiang, Yellen, Hong Hao, Chad Bown, " Bown, Josh Hawley, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Haley, Donald Trump, David Lawder, Andrea Shalal, Gram Slattery, Jeff Mason, Heather Timmons, Nick Zieminski Organizations: China's, WASHINGTON, . Treasury, Trump, White House, World Bank, Berkeley Research, Premier, U.S . Treasury, . Trade, China's Finance, U.S, Grow Investment, Times, Peterson Institute of International Economics, Reuters, Republican, Firebrand, Thomson Locations: Diaoyutai, Beijing, China, U.S, Washington, U.s, Donald Trump's China, CHINA, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Florida, Mexico, Cuba
The US-China trade war has impacted manufacturing exports, particularly in the semiconductor industry. Opening Plenary with Li Qiang, Premier of the People's Republic of China World Economic Forum/Benedikt von LoebellWhy does de-risking matter? According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the trade war of 2018-19 devastated US exports to China. A big sticking point for the two nations is the US manufacturing exports to China. "Prior to the trade war, manufacturing was 44 percent of total US goods and services exports to China — the largest component of pre-trade war commerce.
Persons: Li Qiang, Li, , Ursula von der Leyen, Benedikt von Loebell, Trump, Morgan, JP Morgan Organizations: Service, European, Economic, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, Semiconductor Industry Association Locations: China, West, Davos, Tianjin, decouple, People's Republic of China, China —, East Asia, Taiwan, South Korea
A strong dollar affects prices, tourism and tradeThe ripple effect of a robust dollar permeates various parts of the economic picture, from international trade to tourism. “One of the underappreciated dimensions of a strong dollar is that it weighs on inflation,” she said. While Americans may find trips abroad relatively cheaper during times of dollar strength, tourism to the United States may take a hit. Relative weakness in European and Asian economies has also added investors’ appetite for the dollar, according to Gagnon. “I don’t see anything on the horizon that would weaken the dollar,” Gagnon said.
Persons: … that’s, Lisa Shalett, Shalett, Joseph Gagnon, , That’s, Gagnon, ” Gagnon, Goldman Sachs, Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Products, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Deutsche Bank, eventual Locations: United, United States
Here's the inflation breakdown for May 2023, in one chart
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
The CPI is a key barometer of inflation, measuring prices of anything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts and concert tickets. Where consumers saw inflation, deflation in MayConsumers saw gasoline prices decline 5.6% between April and May, according to the CPI report. "Energy prices at this time last year were just absurd," Leer said. watch nowBut food and energy prices can be volatile. "The progress on core inflation has stalled out in recent months," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.
Persons: Michael M, Leer, Greg McBride, They're, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard Organizations: Lincoln Market, Santiago, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumers, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Bankrate Locations: Prospect, Brooklyn, New York City, U.S, Ukraine
European officials are looking at ways to use Russian assets to repay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. The European Union is getting closer to brokering a detailed plan on how to use frozen Russian assets to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine, a senior official told CNBC. The EU has confirmed that there are more than 200 billion euros ($215.5 billion) and a separate 20 billion euros ($21.5 billion) in assets across the bloc that belong to the Russian central bank and to Russian private individuals, respectively. These assets were frozen by European authorities in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine to sanction the Kremlin for its aggression. She added at the time that these funds should also be put toward the reconstruction efforts, once the war is over and sanctions are lifted off the frozen assets.
Persons: Sweden's Anders Ahnlid, Ahnlid, Ursula von der Leyen, von der Leyen, Jacob Kirkegaard Organizations: European, CNBC, EU, Monday, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Bank, European Commission, United Nations Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Russia, Ukrainian, Nova
With its $3.2 billion acquisition of Credit Suisse, UBS is poised to climb the ranks of global mega banks. Additionally, U.S. senators claim that Credit Suisse maintained accounts linked to Nazi clients as recently as 2020. The Swiss National Bank pledged over $100 billion in liquidity support to broker UBS's rapid takeover of Credit Suisse. In the deal, Credit Suisse shareholders expect to trade in 22.48 shares for 1 UBS share. "By and large, what the Swiss government mostly did is impose losses on creditors and shareholders of Credit Suisse," said Véron.
Persons: Nicolas Véron Organizations: Credit Suisse, UBS, Experts, Swiss, Bankers, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington , D.C, Swiss National Bank, AG Locations: Switzerland, United States, Singapore, New York, Swiss, Washington ,, Brussels, U.S
While I personally won't be flying internationally anytime soon, we're diving into China's lethargic economy for today's newsletter. The much-anticipated economic rebound hasn't quite materialized for China in the way many had expected. The sluggish recovery has embedded itself in nearly every corner of the world's second-largest economy, even in some of the most obscure commodities markets. The CSI 300 index has slipped over recent weeks, and luxury brands reliant on China's large consumer base have tumbled. What's your outlook on China's economy for the rest of 2023?
Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, Jamie Dimon, Tesla, China Tuul, Bruno Morandi, Rockefeller International's Ruchir Sharma, Nicholas Lardy, Lardy, Filip De Mott, Tweet, Sheldon Cooper, Nordstrom, Goldman Sachs, there's, that's, Phil Rosen, Jason Ma, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: JPMorgan, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Getty, World Gold, Fed, Nvidia, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco Locations: Elon, China, Washington, Shanghai, Shenzhen, . Utah , Colorado, Scottsdale, Saudi, New York, Los Angeles, London
A member of the Peoples Armed Police stands guard in front of the flag of the European Union at the European Delegation in Beijing, China. As the United States looks at disengaging from China, Europe could soon find itself in a sweet spot. "The U.S.' hawkish policy stance towards China means that China needs to improve relations with Europe to mitigate the impact of export controls. Therefore, China has an incentive to work hard on improving EU relations," Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Institute, told CNBC via email. "Viewed from China, the EU is the most important high-income market that it still has largely unfettered access to.
But if it does, it could make the 2008 global financial crisis feel like a walk in the park. The consequences are frightful.”The belief that America’s government will pay its creditors on time underpins the smooth functioning of the global financial system. During the 2011 standoff over raising the US debt ceiling, the S&P 500 index of leading US shares plunged more than 15%. “It’s unclear in a Treasury default crisis whether the Fed could do enough even with the types of efforts it deployed in March 2020,” Obstfeld said. “A default would be a message to investors all around the world of eroding confidence in America,” he added.
Why China and Japan are praying the US won’t default
  + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
China and Japan are the largest foreign investors in American government debt. China was the largest foreign creditor to the United States for more than a decade. The falling value of Treasuries would lead to a drop in Japan and China’s foreign reserves. “If the United States defaults on its debt, it will not only discredit the United States, but also bring real financial losses to China,” it said. Analysts say Beijing has shown little willingness to fully integrate with global financial markets.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty ImagesWASHINGTON — Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, who guided the central bank and the U.S. economy through the Great Recession, thinks central bankers still have work to do to bring down inflation. Since leaving the Fed in 2014, Bernanke has been a distinguished senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. watch nowTheir paper notes that inflation has evolved since ballooning to a 40-year high in the summer of 2022. In a forum Tuesday presented by the Brookings Institution, Bernanke, Blanchard and other high-profile economists and academics discussed the root causes and what policymakers should do as they review policies for the future. The Fed only began raising interest rates in March 2022, a full year after its preferred inflation gauge eclipsed the target.
Persons: Ben Bernanke, Saul Loeb, Olivier Blanchard, Bernanke, Blanchard, Jason Furman, I'm, Organizations: Federal Reserve, Thomas Laubach Research, Federal Reserve Board, AFP, Getty Images WASHINGTON, Former Federal, Fed, Brookings Institution, Peterson Institute for International Economics, of Economic Advisers, Harvard Locations: Washington , DC, U.S
President Joe Biden will host Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders at the White House on Tuesday for a critical meeting on raising the US debt ceiling. The closest analogue to the US debt ceiling is the set-up in Denmark. Lawmakers did not want the debt ceiling to become a proxy for difficult conversations about the government’s fiscal plans. That makes it less likely the debt ceiling could be turned into a political football. Even so, it’s clear that in Denmark, the debt limit has enabled the smooth functioning of government, Kirkegaard said.
And as the bank swells in size, so does the potential risk it poses to the nation’s financial system. Some experts say they’re concerned that JPMorgan’s continued intervention during times of crisis has broader implications for the banking sector, the US financial system and its regulation. And with every failed bank that JPMorgan snaps up, the conundrum becomes clearer: JPMorgan is essentially the biggest risk to the financial system — and every time it expands to uphold the sector’s stability, so does its risk to the financial system. It has “that ability once again, to signal to the world that JPMorgan is a fortress, JPMorgan is the ultimate. But recent failures and the missteps that led to them indicate that deep flaws underline the financial system.
Signature Bank's failure took only marginally longer. "The number 36 has just been, you know, branded in my brain," Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters earlier this month. "I think that any time you have a bank failure like this, bank management clearly failed, supervisors failed and our regulatory system failed," Barr told U.S. lawmakers in a hearing in March. "It's how do we allow a bank whose failure threatened the financial system to persist without being subject to more aggressive intervention?" "One thing for certain ... this was a very significant supervisory failure," Tarullo said at the Peterson Institute for International Economics event on Wednesday.
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