That is, the Fed will hike and hold, not hike and cut as many in the markets had been forecasting. The September CNBC Fed Survey shows the average respondent believes the Fed will hike 0.75 percentage point, or 75 basis points, at Wednesday's meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.1%. The new peak rate forecast represents a nearly 40 basis-point increase from the July survey. Ryding sees a potential need for the Fed to hike as high as 5%, from the current range of 2.25%-2.5%. Respondents put the recession probability in the U.S. over the next 12 months at 52%, little changed from the July survey.

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