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"But I would say that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates does not appear to be causing the increase in longer-term rates." The interest rate on the 10-year Treasury bond has risen roughly a percentage point since the summer, breaching the 5% level late last month before dropping in recent days to its current level around 4.64%. The Fed has not raised its policy rate since July. Cook did not comment on her specific view of the Fed's policy rate, focusing instead on an overview of financial stability issues. In her overview of financial stability, Cook said she felt that the banking system had weathered the stresses of last spring, and "remains sound and resilient overall."

Persons: Lisa DeNell Cook, Ken Cedeno, Lisa Cook, Cook, Jerome Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Governors, Federal Reserve System, Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, Duke University, Thomson Locations: Michigan, Washington ,, U.S

WASHINGTON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - A trade program that grants exports from qualifying African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market should be extended by 16 years, said Democratic Senator Chris Coons, a leading voice on U.S.-Africa policy. African countries want a 10-year renewal of the pact ahead of the 2024 U.S. election. President Joe Biden's administration is also seeking the program's reauthorization but has called for certain reforms. "My AGOA Renewal Act would extend this program, incentivizing investments that will create jobs, bolster economic development, and strengthen our standing in the region," Coons said in a statement. Ben Cardin, the committee's chairman, supports the program's reauthorization, but believes there should be changes to how eligibility criteria is applied, an aide said.

Persons: Chris Coons, Joe Biden's, Coons, Ben Cardin, James Risch, Katherine Tai, Makini Brice, Paul Simao, Josie Kao Organizations: Senate Foreign Relations, Continental Free Trade, Reuters, Biden, United, . Trade, Thomson Locations: U.S, Africa, United States, Washington

While more than half of banks reported tightening business lending standards in the second quarter, just 35% said they cranked down further in the third quarter, with about 62% keeping standards the same. Demand for commercial and industrial loans weakened most among small firms, with more than half of banks saying credit demand had fallen among firms with annual sales of less than $50 million. About 39% of bank loan officers said loan demand had fallen among larger firms in the third quarter, compared to nearly 60% in the second quarter. For households, 86% of loan officers said they had kept standards for home mortgages about the same in the third quarter, though 12% said standards had gotten tighter. Just over 5% of banks said they had tightened standards in the second quarter.

Persons: Banks, Daniel Silver, Morgan, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ GM cancels 1,245 layoffs at factories in Brazil, union says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

The new GM logo is seen on the facade of the General Motors headquarters in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., March 16, 2021. Picture taken March 16, 2021. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 4 (Reuters) - General Motors (GM.N) will cancel 1,245 layoffs at its factories in Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Caetano do Sul and Mogi das Cruzes in the state of Sao Paulo, the union representing metalworkers said on Saturday. Saving the jobs was a "historic victory" following a 13-day strike, the Sindmetal union said in a statement, adding that GM representatives will meet union leaders on Monday to confirm the decision. Reporting by Anthony Boadle; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Sao Jose dos Campos, metalworkers, Anthony Boadle, Paul Simao Organizations: General Motors, REUTERS, Sul, U.S, Thomson Locations: Detroit , Michigan, U.S, Sao Jose, Sao Caetano, Sao Paulo

☆ Arab World, US Split on Gaza Ceasefire as Israeli Offensive Presses On
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-04 | by ( Nov. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +7 min

The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Israeli military said it was trying to stem violence and protect Palestinian civilians. The Israeli military said it would enable Palestinians to travel on a main Gaza highway, the Salah a-Din road, during a three-hour window on Saturday. Fighting was "fierce" near an Israeli outpost on the outskirts of Gaza City, CNN reported, saying Israeli soldiers were battling Hamas fighters hundreds of meters to the north and south. If we need to get inside Gaza house-by-house, it's exactly what's going to happen," one Israeli soldier told CNN.

Persons: Nidal, Simon Lewis, Suleiman, Khalidi, Antony Blinken, Israel, Blinken, WAFA, Benjamin Netanyahu's, Joe Biden, Biden, Ayman Safadi, Sameh Shoukry, David Satterfield, Salah, Nidal al, Suleiman Al, Dan Williams, Michael Martina, Jarrett Renshaw, Humeyra Pamuk, Paul Simao Organizations: Reuters, Israeli, Blinken, Israel Defence Forces, West Bank, Palestinian, Turkish, United Nations, Bank, CNN Locations: Al, Khalidi GAZA, AMMAN, United States, Gaza, Washington, Israel, Palestinian, Rehoboth Beach , Delaware, London, Berlin, Paris, Istanbul, Jordanian, Jabalia, Ankara, GAZA, Amman, Gaza City, Khalidi, Jerusalem

☆ Yellen supports 'significant' capital increase for IDB's private sector arm
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Yellen, who hosted a breakfast for leaders from the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity before a White House summit, said Treasury strongly supported efforts by IDB President Ilan Goldfajn to reform the regional development bank's private sector arm, IDB Invest, and backed a capital increase for it. "My team at Treasury is working closely with President (Ilan) Goldfajn and IDB Group shareholders to define the policy reforms and financial scenarios that would enable a significant capital increase for IDB Invest," she said. Yellen told an IDB conference on Thursday that additional capital would help increase IDB Invest's impact and ability to better mobilize private capital to the region, as APEP partners work to shift supply chains away from China and expand "nearshoring" options closer to home. Yellen also said on Thursday that the "originate-to-share" approach adopted by IDB Invest CEO James Scriven was pioneering a new way for multilateral development banks (MDBs) to leverage private sector capital, an innovation being closely watched by others. The move by IDB follows efforts by China to increase its influence in Latin America, through increased direct lending to Latin American governments and boosting trade ties to resource-rich South American countries.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Ilan Goldfajn, Ilan, Goldfajn, Yellen, James Scriven, Andrea Shalal, Christina Fincher, Paul Simao Organizations: . Treasury, Inter, American Development Bank, Americas, Economic Prosperity, Treasury, IDB Invest, IDB Group, IDB, Thomson Locations: United States, America, Caribbean, Washington, U.S, Latin America, China, Mexico

☆ Canada warns of economic uncertainty if Alberta quits national pension plan
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Susana Vera/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOTTAWA, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Canada will face rising economic uncertainty if the province of Alberta carries out a threat to withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Friday. Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner later on Friday said the province would not leave fellow Canadians without a stable pension and its associated benefits. "For the past several weeks, Alberta has been having an open discussion about the possibility of establishing an Alberta Pension Plan that will benefit our seniors and workers," he said. The so-called Alberta Pension Protection Act would require Albertans to vote in favor of a pension plan for the province during a public referendum before the provincial government would seek to withdraw assets, the statement said. "Alberta would need to negotiate complex time-consuming portability agreements with the CPP and with the Quebec Pension Plan," she said.

Persons: Finance Chrystia Freeland, Susana Vera, Chrystia Freeland, Freeland, Nate Horner, Justin Trudeau's, Danielle Smith's, Smith, Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre, Maiya Keidan, David Ljunggren, Kirsten Donovan, Paul Simao Organizations: Finance, IMF, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights OTTAWA, Canada, federal, Alberta, Liberal, Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party, Conservative Party, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, Canada, Alberta, Quebec, Toronto, Ottawa

Bond yields fell, and traders of contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate now see only a 12% chance of a rate hike by January, down from 30% before the release of the employment report. Rate futures pricing now reflects a better-than-even chance of a Fed rate cut by May of 2024, with several more cuts expected later next year. U.S. central bankers themselves are not even thinking about rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week after the Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range. "Continued upward momentum would be troubling, and hopefully this recent rise levels off as the labor market recovery continues," said Indeed.com's Nick Bunker. Still for now, most of the worries about the labor market appear to be focused on what might, or might not, happen next rather than on the evidence so far.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, nonfarm, Bond, Powell, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Michael Feroli, Nick Bunker, Sharif, Julie Su, Ann Saphir, Shristi Achar, Tomasz Janowski, Christina Fincher, Paul Simao, Chris Reese Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Labor Department, U.S, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Richmond Fed, CNBC, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics, Labor, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Another month, another new record for China's primary aluminium production sector. Power availability is proving to be as effective a cap on China's aluminium production as any government mandate. Some of that production capacity has only just been powered up after a previous round of restrictions was lifted in June. And an increasingly significant one as ever more Chinese aluminium capacity migrates from north to south to lower the carbon footprint. Rainfall in Yunnan is now the key determinant of China's primary aluminium production capacity.

Persons: Stringer, John Kemp, wean, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, International Aluminium Institute, China Southern Power, AZ Consulting, China Hongqiao, HK, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Zouping, Shandong province, China, Beijing, Yunnan, YUNNAN, It's, Shandong

☆ US Treasury increases size of most of its debt auctions
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. Treasury yields fell after the announcement on relief the increases were not as large as some had feared. The Treasury said on Wednesday it plans to increase the size of its two-year and five-year note auctions by $3 billion per month, and to increase the size of its 3-year and 7-year note auctions by $2 billion and $1 billion per month, respectively. The government will also increase the size of its two-year floating rate note new issue and reopenings by $2 billion. Some Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) auction sizes will also be increased, with a $1 billion increase in the December 5-year TIPS auction and January 10-year TIPS auction.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Steven Ricchiuto, Karen Brettell, Herb Lash, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury Department, Treasury, U.S, Mizuho Securities USA, Securities, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, New York, U.S

There are reasons for the central bank to be, as policymakers have said, "careful" in approving any further rate increases. "We think real rates are higher due to very strong US growth," analysts from Citi wrote ahead of this week's Fed meeting. As of the September meeting, Fed officials said they still felt one more rate hike would be necessary. But Powell has also said growth needs to slow - and if it doesn't, it means the Fed's policy rate will need to move higher. It's a good thing that the labor market's strong," Powell said at his press conference following the end of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Citi, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Investors, Gross, Oxford Economics, Conference Board, Conference Board's, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, joblessness

☆ Wages boost US labor costs in third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Employment Cost Index (ECI), the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 1.1% last quarter after increasing 1.0% in the April-June period, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Labor costs increased 4.3% on a year-on-year basis after advancing by 4.5% in the second quarter. Wages increased 1.2% in the third quarter after climbing 1.0% in the prior three months. They were up 4.6% on a year-on-year basis after advancing by the same margin in the second quarter. Inflation-adjusted wages for all workers rose 0.9% on a year-on-year basis after jumping 1.7% in the second quarter.

Persons: Megan Varner, Rubeela Farooqi, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Treasury, Fed, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Labor, State, Thomson Locations: Dalton , Georgia, U.S

☆ US manufacturing output rises solidly in September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Manufacturing output rose 0.4% last month, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Durable goods manufacturing output rose at a 2.3% annualized rate, which was offset by a 2.4% pace of decline in nondurable manufacturing. Motor vehicle and parts output rose 0.3% last month after declining 4.1% in August. Mining output rose 0.4% after gaining 0.2% in August. Overall industrial production rose 0.3% in September after being unchanged in August.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, Institute for Supply, Utilities, Thomson Locations: Normal , Illinois, U.S, Kentucky

☆ Sika shares slide after EU raids companies over price-fixing suspicions
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The logo of Swiss chemical group Sika is seen at the company's headquarters in Zurich, Switzerland October 7, 2021. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann Acquire Licensing RightsCompanies Sika AG FollowZURICH, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Shares in Swiss construction chemicals maker Sika (SIKA.S) fell as much as 7.4% on Tuesday after the European Commission announced antitrust raids at unnamed construction chemicals companies. Sika later confirmed that investigations had taken place in connection with a suspicion of price fixing. The European Commission said it was carrying out unannounced antitrust inspections in the construction chemicals sector in several member states, as it suspected companies of anti-competitive behaviour. Sika shares closed down 5.45% in Zurich, while the broader SMI index (.SSMI) fell 0.69%.

Persons: Arnd, Sika, Danilo Masoni, Oliver Hirt, Dhara Ranasinghe, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, European Commission, European Union, Turkish, Thomson Locations: Zurich, Switzerland, Milan

☆ US agency fines Zipcar for uncompleted recall rentals
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( David Shepardson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A 2015 law requires rental car companies with 35 or more vehicles to complete recall repairs before renting vehicles. The agency is requiring Zipcar, a unit of Avis Budget Group (CAR.O) since 2013, to submit an audit report of all Zipcar vehicles with uncompleted recall repairs at any time within 150 calendar days after the effective date of the settlement. On Monday, Zipcar said the settlement stems from a 2017 recall in which less than 50 of 12,000 vehicles of its global fleet were found in violation. Zipcar added the recall "was a unique mileage-based recall that did not require the immediate grounding of the vehicles" and added the vehicles are no longer in its fleet. "Vehicles with open, unrepaired recalls pose a safety risk to everyone on the road," said Ann Carlson, NHTSA's acting administrator.

Persons: Robert Galbraith, Zipcar, unrepaired, Ann Carlson, NHTSA's, Hertz, David Shepardson, Chris Reese, Paul Simao, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National, Traffic Safety Administration, Avis Budget Group, Vehicles, NHTSA, Hertz, Thomson Locations: San Francisco , California

☆ Fed's Harker says high interest rates closing off housing for new buyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker stands behind the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, where the Kansas City Fed holds its annual economic symposium, in Wyoming, U.S. August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said on Monday the current level of interest rates has nearly killed off access to the housing market for those looking to get in for the first time. In the text of a speech to the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual convention, Harker said when it comes to housing, based on his interactions in his district, "the climate could be crystallized in seven words, which one of those contacts said to me recently: 'There are no first-time home buyers.'" Harker explained that high interest rates have hit the housing sector by boosting costs and contracting inventory because many people no longer wish to sell, while pushing more prospective buyers into newly built homes. Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Patrick Harker, Ann Saphir, Harker, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, Kansas City Fed, REUTERS, Mortgage, Thomson Locations: Jackson, Wyoming, U.S

Describing that anticipated outcome while keeping open the possibility of future rate increases will be one challenge Powell faces. Another will be discounting speculation about the prospect of rate cuts or changes to other aspects of Fed policy, such as the ongoing reduction of the central bank's balance sheet. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is just about six-tenths of a percentage point below the Fed's policy rate; when the gap between the two shifts from negative to positive is when monetary policy gets perhaps its truest test. Recent data on balance don't fully back the Fed's view of a gently slowing economy and steadily easing inflation. "Assuming the economy keeps growing ... the Fed will get back to hiking," Blitz said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Larry Meyer, Meyer, Krishna Guha, Powell's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S ., Economic, of New, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Evercore ISI, Hamas, U.S . House, Graphics, TS Lombard, Thomson Locations: U.S . Congress, of New York, Israel, Palestinian, Washington, U.S

Crude oil storage tanks are seen in an aerial photograph at the Cushing oil hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, U.S. April 21, 2020. The conflict in the Middle East has had little impact on global oil and gas supplies, and Israel is not a big producer. Iran's Oil Minister Javad Owji said on Friday oil prices are expected to reach $100 per barrel due to the current situation in the Middle East, according to the ministry's news agency SHANA. If the U.S. tightens enforcement of sanctions on Iran's oil exports due to any role it may have in the conflict, then Iran's oil supply could fall. On the U.S. supply front, drillers this week added four oil rigs in the biggest weekly rise since March, Baker Hughes said.

Persons: Brent, WTI, Israel, Javad Owji, SHANA, Iran's, Hossein Amirabdollahian, Andrew Lipow, Baker Hughes, Stephanie Kelly, Paul Carsten, Katya Golubkova, Andrew Hayley, Marguerita Choy, David Gregorio, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, . West Texas, Iran's Oil, Hezbollah, U.S, Wall Street, Lipow Oil Associates, The, of, Petroleum, drillers, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Thomson Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, U.S, Gaza Saudi Arabia, Israel, Gaza, Tehran, Lebanese, Saudi Arabia, Moscow, Ukraine, Russia, Iran, China, New York, London, Tokyo, Beijing

REUTERS/Susana Vera Acquire Licensing RightsMARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund's engagement with El Salvador has been "very productive" following a recent visit from a negotiating team, but an agreement is "not there yet" for a new financing program, an IMF official said on Friday. "The engagement with El Salvador has been very productive," Rodrigo Valdes, director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department, told Reuters. "We just had a mission there, a negotiating mission, but we knew that it would be a first step," he said. The IMF said in late September that it was working with El Salvador on "technical issues" and on minimizing the risks from the country's adoption of bitcoin as legal tender. "In other countries fragmentation, low popularity, are constraints for policy actions and here they have a very valuable opportunity," the IMF official said.

Persons: Western Hemisphere Department Rodrigo Valdes, Susana Vera, El Salvador, Rodrigo Valdes, Valdes, we're, Nayib Bukele, El, Bukele, Jorgelina, Rodrigo Campos, Nelson Renteria, Paul Simao Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Department, Reuters, IMF, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, Monetary, El, Salvadoran, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, Rights MARRAKECH, El Salvador, Salvadoran, Rosario, New York, San Salvador

☆ Surging rents lift US consumer prices; underlying inflation grinding lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The so-called core CPI was also lifted by a 3.7% rise in the cost of lodging away from home, which ended three straight monthly declines. The core CPI gained 4.1% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest rise since September 2021, after advancing 4.3% in August. Over the last three months, the core CPI increased 3.1%. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market tightness, which is driving core services inflation excluding rents, imply that the higher rates could last for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.

Persons: Olu Sonola, Stephen Juneau, Bing Guan, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, Bank of America Securities, Mobil, REUTERS, Fed, Financial, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California

That changed in September when U.S. central bank officials themselves sensed that progress on housing inflation might have stalled. Data released on Thursday confirmed a jump in shelter prices that, for a month at least, bucked the trend. "The uptick in housing inflation this month was the key surprise. Housing inflation will need to decline sharply over the coming months for us to see inflation near 2%." In the list of risks for inflation to remain elevated, Fed officials in September pointed to "the effects of a strong housing market."

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Olu Sonola, aren't, Jerome Powell, Kathy Bostjancic, disinflation Powell, Andrew Hunter, CoreLogic, Hunter, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fitch, Fed, Nationwide, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

☆ US consumer prices rise on surge in rents; underlying inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gasoline prices rose 2.1% after accelerating 10.6% in August. Year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Reuters GraphicsExcluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3%, matching August's gain. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market resilience, suggests borrowing costs could remain elevated for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.

Persons: Bing Guan, Olu Sonola, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Mobil, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York

☆ Gasoline, food drive US producer prices higher; core inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The so-called core PPI increased 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in September after climbing 2.9% in August. Wholesale goods prices increased 0.9%, with a 3.3% rise in the cost of energy products accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core goods prices edged up 0.1% for the second straight month. This mostly reflected the normalization of supply chains, whose disruption fueled goods inflation in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Though core inflation is cooling, higher gasoline and food prices could hamper progress by raising the cost of other goods as well as causing consumers to expect inflation to rise.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Christopher Rupkey, Will Compernolle, Alex McGrath, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters, PPI, Reuters Graphics, Trade, Fed, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, WASHINGTON, New York, East, Greenville , South Carolina

According to the minutes, "several participants" felt that "the focus of monetary policy decisions and communications should shift from how high to raise the policy rate to how long to hold the policy rate at restrictive levels." For now, "all participants agreed that policy should remain restrictive for some time" until it is clear inflation "is moving down sustainably toward its objective." The release on Thursday of the consumer price index report for September could add to the impetus for the Fed to remain on hold. Waller said that if recent month-to-month inflation trends continue, it would mean "we're pretty much back to our target." Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Christopher Waller, Waller, Paul Ryan, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Treasury, U.S . House, Investors, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Utah

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

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