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☆ Never before have just 10 stocks held this much sway over the global stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The top 10 global stocks by market value have a greater hold than ever before on the capital markets, and that could be a bad thing, says Ned Davis Research. Ned Davis found that a heavy concentration in the years 2000 and 2021 was soon followed by a bear market. However, there was an exception in 2020, when the rise in a handful of stocks broadened out and supported a bull market. Ned Davis is watching for aggregate strength in key 50-day and 200-day indicators. However, stocks could fall into a bear market if the rally this year fails to expand to more sectors, the firm said.

Persons: Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, Hayes Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Rally Watch

☆ Stocks churn with the S&P 500 sitting at the same level it was two years ago
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 has held on to most of its first-half gains and has made a series of higher lows since mid-August. And while 2% is the central-banker ideal, equity markets historically are comfortable with inflation under 4% or so. The equal-weight S & P 500 is about where it was last Thanksgiving and small-cap indexes have been sideways and stuck for a year-and-a-half. Kolovos has been anticipating a "long and winding road to 4800" for the S & P 500, provided it doesn't crack support near 4300 before then. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Such a scenario would then certainly give rise to a vexing "Now what?"

Persons: –, Ron Adler, Morgan, Wall, It's, we've, Ned Davis, Worth, John Kolovos, Kolovos Organizations: Wall, PPI, ECB, Citi, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Ned Davis Research, Dow Jones Industrial, Nvidia Locations: China, Rosh, Yom Kippur

☆ A 39-year market veteran shares why this market rally is only beginning and stocks are destined to hit new record highs in the coming months — and the 5 best ways to take advantage of it
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Market volatility (bottom half) spiked during the downturn but has steadily receded during the rebound despite a late-summer hiccup. Tim Hayes, Ned Davis ResearchHayes believes that a healthy reset shook out much of that euphoria without leaving lasting damage. History says this market rally has plenty of room to runThe final three months of the year have historically been the friendliest to stocks, Hayes said. Tim Hayes, Ned Davis Research"It doesn't follow the script precisely," Hayes said. The forthcoming market rally should broaden out, the strategist said, which should boost parts of the market that haven't participated as well, including economically sensitive small companies and sectors.

Persons: Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, who's, Ned Davis Research Hayes, " Hayes, Hayes, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson's, David Lundgren, they've, There's, He's, haven't, they're Organizations: Ned, Ned Davis Research, Technology Locations: China, United Kingdom, Canada, Japan

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Investor hopes for US soft landing ride on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Too high a number could fan fears of the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer or hiking them more in coming months. That would give investors less reason to hold onto stocks after a tech-led drop in which the S&P 500 lost about 5% from summer highs. Reasons for optimism include the relative outperformance of the U.S. economy compared to Europe and China, and signs the so-called profit recession among S&P 500 companies may be over. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector lost more than 2% this week following news that Beijing had ordered central government employees to stop using iPhones for work. Still, much of the bull case for stocks hinges on softer inflation eventually pushing the Fed to lower interest rates.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Michael Purves, Randy Frederick, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Technology, Apple, Huawei, Chief, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Credit Suisse Securities, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Europe, China, Beijing

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investor hopes for US soft landing ride on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Insider Today: Analyzing Google salaries
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

In today's big story, we're taking a deeper look at the leaked Google salary data by looking at pay ranges across various factors. The sheet detailed 2022 base salaries, equity, and bonuses from over 12,000 Google employees in the US. Google employees who identified as being of Black/African descent had a median base salary at least $23,000 below their Asian, White, and Middle Eastern/North African colleagues. The gap didn't improve among software engineers, as those of Black/African descent had a median base salary $24,500 lower than those of white or European descent. Google employees who identified as being of Black/African descent had a median base salary at least $23,000 below their Asian, White, and Middle Eastern/North African colleagues.

Persons: We've, Tayfun, Rosalie Chan, Hugh Langley, Madison Hoff, Rosalie, Hugh, Madison, Shaw, Ned Davis, Ryan Salame, Salame, Sam Bankman, Tim Cook, Stephen Lam, Sam Altman, Investor Ford Smith, biohacking, Melissa Phillippi, missteps, Goldman Sachs, Sasha Kelemen, Olivia Rodrigo's, Ralph Lauren, —, Joe Jonas, she'd, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Google, Google's New, Citadel, Ned Davis Research, Wall, Zen, Apple, Reuters Apple, European Commission, Investor, Leerink Partners, York, Kroger Locations: Wall, Silicon, Madison, Google's New York, Bay, Brooklyn, Manhattan , New York City, USA, China, New York City, San Diego, London, New York

☆ Analysis: Potential US government shutdown could dent investor confidence
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Investors might be more sensitive to a shutdown this time around, however. With only weeks to go before the deadline, the Republican-led House of Representatives has approved only one of those 12 bills. 'LESS FRIENDLY POLICY'If it occurs, the shutdown would be the fourth over the last decade and would furlough roughly three of out five federal civilian workers. The White House last month said it was working with Congress to hammer out a short-term funding measure to avoid a shutdown while longer-term spending talks continue. Analysts at Ned Davis Research said a shutdown could add to factors threatening to roil the economy into next year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Goldman Sachs, Fitch, ”, Jamie Cox, Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Ned Davis, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, Goldman, Social, Federal, Harris Financial Group, Caucus, House Republican, Republican, Senate, Congressional, Office, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Democrats, Ned, Ned Davis Research, CFRA Research, Thomson Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Historically stormy month of September may test US stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Wall Street entrance to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is seen in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. In Septembers since 1945, the S&P 500 has declined an average of 0.7%, the worst performance of any month, according to CFRA. Of course, bullish stock investors have largely been rewarded for looking past potential pitfalls this year. "The correction started on the first day of the month, and now it has corrected the conditions that made it vulnerable," Hayes said. Reporting by David Randall; Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jack Janasiewicz, Janasiewicz, Jerome Powell, Sandy Villere, Goldman Sachs, Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Hayes, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reserve, Natixis, Solutions, U.S, Villere, Pfizer, Abbott Laboratories, Investors, Republicans, U.S . House, Goldman, Federal, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Jackson

☆ Here's why trillions of dollars in money market funds may not restart the stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The 2023 stock market rally caught many investors off guard, with mountains of excess cash sitting in money market funds. "Money market balances are building up, which is unusual given how much the stock market has rallied recently. And history suggests that money market funds are not always fuel for a buy-the-dip trend to support a late-stage rally. Through that lens, the growth of money market funds in 2023 can also be linked to the regional bank crisis earlier this year. Clissold said discussions with wealth advisory clients suggest that "some of that money market fund money does leak into the stock market," albeit over time.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Callie Cox, Cox, Todd Sohn, Sohn, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clissold, John Tobin, Dreyfus, I'm, corporates, Tobin Organizations: Bank of America, EPFR, Investment Company Institute, Nasdaq, Barclays, Money, Federal Reserve, Ned, Ned Davis Research, BNY Mellon Investment Management, CIO Locations: U.S

☆ Here's what Wall Street expects from Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Fed chief Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Friday at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Markets will be hanging on his every word, and Wall Street expects him to focus on inflation and interest rates. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. "We are not expecting to get a strong monetary policy signal out of Jackson Hole," Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note Friday. "Typically, markets have been in positive territory the week following Jackson Hole."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, goad Powell, CME's, Goldman Sachs, Quincy Krosby, Tom Lee, Ned Davis Organizations: Wall Street, Service, Wall, LPL Financial, Fed, NDR Locations: , Wyoming, Wall, Silicon, dovish, Russia, Ukraine, China

☆ The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. What it means for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 this week. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since 2011. What's more, higher yields are typically a negative for tech and growth stocks — this year's best-performing group — as they lessen the value of their promised future earnings. Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish said Monday he expects the 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 5.25%, citing risks to the bond market on inflation expectations. US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year Treasury yield YTD "The market has been consistently underpricing the risk of additional rate hikes and overpricing the speed of rate cuts," Kalish wrote.

Persons: Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Strategas, Chris Verrone, 133bps, Verrone, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach, it's, Tom Essaye, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Chris Hayes Organizations: Treasury, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Nvidia really needs its earnings to come through to justify its rallies, says Ned Davis' Ed Clissold
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNvidia really needs its earnings to come through to justify its rallies, says Ned Davis' Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist and Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex chief market strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold, Kathryn Kaminski Organizations: Nvidia, Ned Davis Research

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Sluggish US earnings may need pick-me-up to support 2023 stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has edged higher since earnings season began in July, with the benchmark index up 16% in 2023. Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings are seen rising 1.3% on a year-over-year basis, according to Refinitiv, before a 9.7% fourth-quarter earnings rise and a 11.9% full-year increase in 2024. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, the S&P 500 has become more richly valued. Q2 RESULTSWith 91% of S&P 500 companies having reported second-quarter results, 78.7% posted earnings above analysts' expectations, according to Refinitiv IBES.

Persons: Mike Segar, Eric Freedman, Refinitiv, Anthony Saglimbene, Julian Emanuel, Evercore, Emanuel, John Lynch, Ned Davis, Comerica's Lynch, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Stock, U.S, Bank Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Credit Suisse, Ameriprise Financial, Comerica Wealth Management, Apple, Walmart, Ned Davis Research, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Soft landing fatigue
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Positive economic data tends to move stock markets, either by fueling rallies, or prompting a temporary sell-off as traders take profits. But Wall Street stock markets ended Thursday flat. Futures point to mild declines for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 on Friday. The S&P 500 has risen 16% year-to-date. Analysts have cut their estimates for S&P 500 companies' 2023 earnings by about 15% since the end of last year, Capital Economics says.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Naomi Rovnick, Emmanuel Cau, Cau, Ned Davis, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Barclays, Economics, Capital Economics, Ned Davis Research, U.S Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, University of Michigan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Tuscany

☆ A key signal suggests job growth could plummet in coming months amid labor strikes and bad weather
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A key signal suggests monthly job growth could plummet in the coming months, according to Ned Davis Research. The research firm highlighted that a slow-down in temporary hiring services is the canary in the coal mine. The investment research firm highlighted a key leading indicator that is warning of a potential slowdown in hiring, and that's the hiring activities of temporary hiring services. And the two most recent job reports also came in below economist estimates, ending a more than year-long streak of better-than-expected job growth. Other factors that could limit future job growth includes tighter lending standards and a potential strike by the UAW and other unions.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, UAW, Employers

☆ The Fed may be done hiking rates but there's another policy move that still poses a big risk to stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed may be nearing the end of its rate hikes but its balance sheet reduction plans still pose a big risk to stocks. The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by $900 billion over the past year and is showing no signs of stopping. Continued draining of liquidity presents a risk for equities," Ned Davis Research said in a Thursday note. The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet by about $80 billion per month, and stocks tend to perform well when the exact opposite happens, according to NDR. And its balance sheet reduction policy can have a big impact not only on the stock market, but also the economy.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Fed, Ned Davis Research, Service, NDR Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Alejandra Grindal and James Demmert
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Alejandra Grindal and James DemmertAlejandra Grindal, Ned Davis Research senior international economist and James Demmert, Main Street Research CIO, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action, the latest CPI read and more.

Persons: Alejandra Grindal, James Demmert Alejandra Grindal, Ned Davis, James Demmert Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Street Research

☆ Today's CPI report is a reminder inflation is sticky despite Fed's efforts: Main Street's Demmert
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailToday's CPI report is a reminder inflation is sticky despite Fed's efforts: Main Street's DemmertAlejandra Grindal, Ned Davis Research senior international economist and James Demmert, Main Street Research CIO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action, the latest CPI read and more.

Persons: Alejandra Grindal, Ned Davis, James Demmert Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Street Research

☆ Here's why the restart of student loan payments won't end up dragging down the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The upcoming restart of student loan payments shouldn't drag down the economy, according to Ned Davis Research. About 46 million holders of $1.77 trillion in student loan debt are expected to resume payments in October for the first time since March 2020. Don't expect the upcoming restart of student loan payments to drag down the US economy, according to Ned Davis Research. Student loan payments are expected to restart in October for the first time since the start of the pandemic in March 2020. And excess consumer savings could more than cover the upcoming resumption of student loan payments, according to NDR.

Persons: Ned Davis, Dimitrova Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Federal Reserve, Dimitrova

☆ Most economic data suggests chance of an imminent recession ‘pretty low': Ned Davis’ Ed Clissold
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMost economic data suggests chance of an imminent recession ‘pretty low': Ned Davis’ Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, joins ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss why he thinks the bull run on the market is not over yet, whether we are heading into a recession and more.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold, Bell Organizations: Ned, Ned Davis Research Locations: U.S

☆ The Fed is the only thing standing in the way of a sustained bull market in stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The current bull market in stocks looks sustainable as long as the Federal Reserve doesn't mess things up. The firm highlighted that the S&P 500's 25% rally from its mid-October low has all the hallmarks of a long-term secular bull market rather than a short-term cyclical bull market. That fact favors the idea that the current bull market in stocks is more secular in nature than cyclical, according to the note. As a result, the Fed represents the biggest risk to the stock market, which is the case whether the Fed cuts or continues to raise interest rates. With interest rates sitting at more than 5%, all eyes will be on the Fed's next interest rate decision at its July FOMC meeting.

Persons: Ned Davis, —, it's, Alan Greenspan, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Burns, Miller Organizations: Federal, Ned Davis Research, NDR, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Term Capital Management

☆ Dividend payers underperformed in the first half. Here’s why they could make a comeback
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Dividend payers are on track for their worst half against stocks that don't pay dividends since 2009, Ed Clissold, the firm's chief U.S. strategist, wrote in a June 22 report. "Our index of S & P 500 Dividend Payers underperformed Non-Payers by 13.7% year to date," he said. Meanwhile, the ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) is up 3% in 2023. SPYD .SPX YTD line SPDR Portfolio S & P 500 High Dividend ETF versus the S & P 500 in 2023 One of the reasons behind dividend stocks' underperformance is the fact that they have low betas. For starters, dividend payers tend to outperform during the second year of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycles, NDR found.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold, Jerome Powell, Michael Bloom Organizations: Ned Davis Research, underperformed, Nasdaq

☆ Stock market heads into the second half with near 15% total return so far in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 had just sustained its worst calendar-year loss in half a generation. Textbook consolidation Last week's modest 1.4% decline in the S & P 500 did little to alter either the favorable underlying market trend or the notion that more consolidation might be in store. The median year-end S & P 500 target among Street strategists is 4250, 100 points below Friday's close, and the most-bullish forecast is for about a 5% further gain. And just as the market's performance has been skewed toward these hit hyper-cap tech stocks, so is the S & P 500's valuation. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 1-year Big picture: The market this year has chewed through plenty of perfectly valid excuses to falter without doing so.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jeremy Schwartz, Lori Calvasina, we'll Organizations: Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Ned Davis Research, New, Nvidia, General Motors, Whirlpool, RBC Capital Locations: DC

☆ The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is getting a boost from BlackRock. Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) , which has long traded at a steep discount to its net asset value, rose 12.8% on Friday after BlackRock filed to launch a spot bitcoin ETF. GBTC 5D mountain The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has rallied more than bitcoin in recent days. The proposed BlackRock fund would also use Coinbase as a custodian for cryptocurrency, even though Coinbase was recently sued by the SEC . "If BlackRock is getting an ETF, I would want to own the BlackRock ETF. Wilshire Phoenix's wShares has a pending registration filing for its own bitcoin trust, but that product is not an ETF.

Persons: bitcoin, Bryan Armour, Armour, Coinbase, Gary Gensler, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Tschosik, GBTC, William Cai, Cai Organizations: BlackRock, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, North America, Morningstar, Ned, Ned Davis Research, NDR, wouldn't, Wilshire Locations: BlackRock, bitcoin, Wilshire Phoenix, GBTC

☆ Behold Wall Street's new bull market, maybe
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Part of the uncertainty is that there is no set definition of a bull or bear market, or any sort of regulatory body that declares one, such as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does with recessions. The most commonly accepted definition is a 20% rise off a low for a bull market and a 20% decline from a high for a bear market, but even that is open to interpretation. "I just think it was a blip within a longer-term bear market." "Certainly it's a bull market in big-cap technology. I wouldn't call it a bull market in a broad market sense, because there are only certain stocks that are really in what we would call bull market territory, and it's just not a broad enough move to call it a sustainable bull market," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist Ingalls & Snyder in New York.

Persons: Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt, Sam Stovall, Stovall, Dan Suzuki, Richard Bernstein, Suzuki, it's, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls, Snyder, Ned Davis, Chuck Mikolajczak, Noel Randewich, Lewis Organizations: YORK, National Bureau of Economic Research, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Dow Jones, Richard, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Nvidia, Ned Davis Research, Thomson Locations: New York

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