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Minneapolis CNN —The US job market cooled back down in June, adding just 209,000 jobs, and fueling optimism that the economy is on course to nail that elusive soft landing of lowering inflation without triggering a recession. That being said, last month’s job growth still outpaces the pre-pandemic average. “The job growth is slowing, but I don’t actually think that’s necessarily a bad thing,” Rucha Vankudre, senior economist for labor market analytics company Lightcast, told CNN. “In the tug of war between the labor market and the economy, there is still a push and pull, yet the labor market remains strong,” Becky Frankiewicz, president and chief commercial officer of ManpowerGroup, said in commentary issued Friday. In June, sectors such as government, as well as health care and social assistance, saw the biggest job gains: 60,000 and 65,200, respectively.
Persons: Rucha Vankudre, We’re, Becky Frankiewicz, ManpowerGroup, , Lightcast’s Vankudre, ” “, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, “ We’re, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN, , Federal Reserve, Service, BLS, RSM, Fed Locations: Minneapolis
Women’s labor force participation has rebounded from the pandemic “she-cession” and returned to its pre-pandemic form of making progressively historic labor market gains. By February of 2020, the labor force participation rate for prime working-age women was 77% — just shy of the record 77.3% set during the dot-com era, BLS data shows. The pandemic walloped the leisure and hospitality and education and health services sectors, where women make up the majority of the workforce. The economic evolution and recovery from the pandemic helped accelerate favorable drivers for women to enter the workforce. Separately, new research shows that although women were outnumbered by men in the US workforce, women could be disproportionately affected by businesses’ adoption of generative AI: One recent analysis estimates that 79% of working women (nearly 59 million) are in occupations susceptible to disruption and automation.
Persons: ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, , ” Pollak, Allison Joyce, didn’t, they’re, That’s, University of North Carolina’s, Dana Peterson, we’ve, , ” —, Jeanne Sahadi Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Getty, Baby Boomers, Pew Research Center, University of North, University of North Carolina’s Kenan, Flagler Business School, Conference Board, CNN Locations: Minneapolis, America, Bolivia , North Carolina
US job openings dropped below 10 million in May
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
Minneapolis CNN —The number of available jobs in the United States dropped in May after an uptick the month before, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. Job openings fell to 9.82 million at the end of May, dropping from an upwardly revised 10.3 million in April, according to the BLS’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report. Economists had projected that openings fell to 9.935 million for May, according to Refinitiv. The May JOLTS data showed that the number of new hires rose to 6.21 million from 6.1 million, quits jumped up to 4.02 million from 3.77 million and layoffs dipped to 1.56 million from 1.59 million. As of May, there were 1.6 open jobs for every person looking for one, BLS data shows.
Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Labor, Federal Reserve Locations: Minneapolis, United States
Minneapolis CNN —When the June jobs report lands on Friday, it’s all but certain to show that the US labor market has added jobs for 30 consecutive months. And this year’s monthly average of 314,000 net job gains far exceeds what was seen before the pandemic, including during that 100-month stretch post-Great Recession. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said she’s expecting a “gradual cooling” to wash over the labor market. “The jobs market is not collapsing,” she said. The timing of the Fourth of July holiday resulted in a load of labor market data landing within 24 hours of the government’s monthly jobs report.
Persons: Sarah House, she’s, , wilder, Andy Challenger, ” Aaron Terrazas Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Labor, Challenger, Fed Locations: Minneapolis, Wells Fargo
Minneapolis CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge cooled off last month, and consumers reined in some spending as the economy slows, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department. Personal spending ticked up by just 0.1%, a more moderate pace than April’s revised 0.6% growth rate. When adjusting for inflation, consumer spending was flat. Consumers refill the coffersThe data in recent months shows a gradual cooling in consumer spending, Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CNN. “There were no fireworks within the Fed’s favorite inflation report today,” George Mateyo, chief investment officer for KeyBank, wrote in a statement.
Persons: Diane Swonk, , Gregory Daco, “ It’s, Friday’s, Abby Omodunbi, Janet Yellen, Yellen, ” Yellen, ” George Mateyo, KeyBank, Swonk, it’s, we’ve Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Commerce Department, CNN, , PNC, Fed, Transportation Locations: Minneapolis, EY, New Orleans
Minneapolis CNN —Americans are feeling fairly bullish about the United States’ economic prospects: A key measurement of consumer confidence just jumped to its highest level since January 2022. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index was 109.7 in June, rising from 102.5 the month before, according to a report released Tuesday. The latest survey from the business research and membership organization continued to show that consumers retained a far sunnier outlook about the present than what could come in the months ahead. Both the present situations index and the expectations index rose from May; however, the latter remains at a level that flashes a recession warning signal, the Conference Board noted. Still, consumers indicated their plans to purchase homes and cars have slowed, and they’re pulling back more on vacation plans, including travel domestically.
Persons: ” Dana Peterson, ” Peterson Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Conference Board Locations: Minneapolis, United States
Minneapolis CNN —Some welcome news for renters: The US median rent in May fell from May 2022, the first annual rent decline in at least three years, according to a Realtor.com report released Monday. In May, the national median asking rent was $1,739, which was up a skosh ($3) from April but down 0.5% from May 2022. “For renters who maybe have stayed put over the past couple of years and haven’t moved, they might not be at the market rent level,” Hale said in a follow-up interview with CNN. “If they were to move this year, even though market rents are declining, they may see a higher rent payment.”The West and the South recorded year-over-year rent declines in May of 3% and 0.7%, respectively, whereas the Midwest and Northeast are still seeing rents climb higher, according to the report. The metro areas with the largest year-over-year rent jumps include Columbus, Ohio (9.3%); St. Louis, Missouri (7.7%); and Cincinnati, Ohio (7.7%).
Persons: Realtor.com, ” Danielle Hale, Hale, haven’t, ” Hale, , Anna Bahney Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, CNN Locations: Minneapolis, Midwest, Northeast, Columbus , Ohio, Louis , Missouri, Cincinnati , Ohio, Las Vegas, Riverside, San Bernardino, California
The median existing home price was $396,100 last month, down 3.1% from a year ago, marking the largest year-over-year price reduction since December 2011. Sales of existing homes — which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — rose 0.2% from April to May. Annually, sales were down 20.4% from a year ago, and the seasonally adjusted annualized sales pace dropped from 5.4 million units a year ago to 4.3 million in May. “Relatively steady rates have led to several consecutive months of consistent home sales.”There are marked regional variations in prices, however. But affordability challenges remained amid super low inventory of homes to buy.
Persons: , Lawrence Yun, Yun, Danielle Hale, Hale, , Anna Bahney Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, National Association of Realtors, , NAR Locations: Minneapolis
Minneapolis CNN —More prime working age women are employed in the United States now than ever before. The labor force participation rate for women between 25 and 54 years old set a record high in April and then again in May, rebounding from the pandemic “she-cession” and returning to its pre-pandemic form of making progressively historic labor market gains. Estimates that nearly eight out of 10 women workers could be affected “are just staggering,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist with online job marketplace ZipRecruiter. “Some of these things are becoming more prevalent, and that’s supportive of more women in the labor market,” she said. On the other hand, AI could prove harmful and threatening for any role that is highly “automatable,” Peterson said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, University of North Carolina’s, , Julia Pollak, it’s, Mark McNeilly, Flagler, “ It’s, ‘ I’m, ’ ” McNeilly, , Pollak, didn’t, Dana Peterson, that’s, ” Peterson, Ben Zweig, Jobs, Peterson, we’ve, Sara Mannheimer, Kathrin Ziegler, ” Meredith Nudo, you’re, Nudo Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, University of North, University of North Carolina’s Kenan, Flagler Business School, Kenan, Flagler, UNC Kenan, CNN, of Labor Statistics, Conference Board, Baby Boomers, Labs, Montana State University, Institute of Museum and Library Services, Librarians, Digital, National Association of Voice Locations: Minneapolis, United States, Houston
Minneapolis CNN —Progress on achieving global gender equality is languishing. A new report from the World Economic Forum estimates that women won’t attain parity with men for another 131 years. The overall gender gap — a measurement of equality across the realms of the economy, politics, health and education — closed by a mere 0.3% as compared to last year, according to the WEF’s “Global Gender Gap Report 2023,” released Wednesday. “Today, some parts of the world are seeing partial recoveries while others are experiencing deteriorations as new crises unfold.”The WEF’s Gender Gap Index measures gender parity in 146 countries and across four areas: economic participation and opportunity, educational attainment, health and survival and political empowerment. “Accelerating progress towards gender parity will not only improve outcomes for women and girls but benefit economies and societies more widely, reviving growth, boosting innovation and increasing resilience,” Zahidi wrote.
Persons: , Saadia Zahidi, ” Zahidi, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, , United Locations: Minneapolis, Iceland, Norway, Finland, New Zealand, Sweden, Germany, Nicaragua, Namibia, Lithuania, United States
Driven by a decline in energy prices and food prices, this inflation measure has now decelerated for 11 consecutive months. Potential relief for consumersThe PPI is a closely watched inflation gauge, since it captures average price shifts upstream of the consumer. Stripping out the more volatile categories of energy and food, the core PPI index showed that prices increased 0.2% from April and moderated to 2.8% on an annual basis. The May PPI report is the second piece of good inflation news in a two-day span: On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index showed that inflation eased to 4% on an annual basis in May. “We can’t keep getting inflation data like this and maintain inflation is out of control,” he wrote.
Persons: Price, It’s, ” Kurt Rankin, , Chris Rupkey, Rupkey Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services Group, PPI, Federal Reserve, CPI Locations: Minneapolis
The Consumer Price Index, a key inflation gauge that measures price changes for a basket of goods and services, increased 4% for the year ending in May. That represents a sharp pullback from April’s 4.9% and is slightly below economists’ expectations for a 4.1% gain, according to Refinitiv. It’s the 11th consecutive month that inflation has slowed, and it’s a welcome reprieve from the painful shock of persistently high inflation endured during the past two years. The Fed would like to see inflation (as measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index) settle in at 2%. Markets are currently pricing in a 95.3% probability that the Fed pauses on Wednesday, according to CME FedWatch.
Persons: It’s, , Nancy Vanden Houten, it’s, Chris Zaccarelli, “ They’ve, , Scott Olson, Vanden Houten, There’s, Kurt Rankin, ” Rankin Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oxford Economics, CNN, Federal Reserve, Independent, CPI, Fed, FedWatch, Walmart, Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond, Hospitality, PNC Financial Services, PNC, United Locations: Minneapolis, Chicago , Illinois, United States
Minneapolis CNN —Americans are optimistic about inflation being lower in the coming months; however, their future outlooks — for price hikes as well as their own finances — are a little more clouded. Consumers’ near-term inflation expectations fell in May to their lowest level in two years, according to new survey data released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Additionally, inflation expectations for three and five years from now increased from the month before, according to the New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations, which measures expectations and behaviors over time for a rotating panel of 1,300 individuals. Since peaking at a 40-year high last June, inflation has cooled considerably but still remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has expressed concern about the possibility of sustained wage gains putting upward pressure on inflation.
Persons: Price, Jerome Powell Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, York, Consumer, Fed, Labor Statistics Locations: Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
William MedinaWhen wildfire smoke smothers US cities and communities, suddenly creating a hazardous air quality event, workers like Leichenger say they’re left gasping for help to keep doing their jobs. On Thursday, Teamsters Local 804 partnered with New York City Democratic Socialists of America to distribute donated KN95 masks to workers. That could include greater attention paid to improving indoor air quality as well as flexible work arrangements. Research is limited, however, as to how wildfire smoke ultimately affects job choices and to what extent people become disinclined to work in higher-exposure fields with greater exposure, he said. For now, workers like Leichenger remain on the front lines.
Persons: William Medina, Uber, Matt Leichenger, Leichenger, , lightheaded, ” Leichenger, , ” Jim Mayer, ” Medina, Mark Borgschulte, “ There’s, Marshall Burke, Borgschulte, ” Borgschulte, “ It’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, UPS, CNN, bodega, Teamsters, New York, New York City Democratic Socialists of America, Friday, Deliveristas, University of Illinois, Occupational Safety, Health Administration, University of Stanford’s Department of Earth System, Research Locations: Minneapolis, Queens , New York, Brooklyn, New York City, Medina, Queens, bodega, York, Canada, New York, Colorado, Texas, California, Oregon
Minneapolis CNN —US companies wary about their economic prospects are battening down the hatches. Recent job market data shows more and more businesses have taken to “labor hoarding” and maintaining headcounts even as demand softens. Employees work at CannaCraft's March and Ash retail cannabis store in San Diego's Mission Valley neighborhood. Grey Duck’s sales picture will become clearer in the next three months, Bossen said. “We’re going to do whatever it takes to keep that staff employed and productive, even if things slow down,” he said.
Persons: , Dana Peterson, ” Peterson, it’s, Ash, Tiffany Devitt, CannaCraft, Ash CannaCraft, , Devitt, Stephen Juneau, they’re, Matt Bigelow, Gusset Jean, Bigelow, ‘ Waddle, Rob Bossen, Grey, Eli Nord, Bossen, “ We’re, waddle Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Conference Board, Conference, Business, CNN, Golden State, of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA Brands, Gusset Jean Co, Vermont, Company Locations: Minneapolis, , headcount, California, Golden, Diego's, CannaCraft, Sonoma County, Juneau, Vermont, Johnson , Vermont, Roseville , Minnesota, China, Roseville
Jobs report: What to expect from the May data
  + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
But despite all that, the labor market has kept humming right along. And that’s largely expected to be the case, again, in Friday’s monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private sector employment increased by 278,000 jobs in May, according to ADP’s monthly National Employment Report, frequently seen as a proxy for the government’s official number. Labor turnover data released Wednesday showed that the US employment market remained tight in April. The government’s May jobs report is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m.
Persons: ” Daniel Zhao, that’s, ” Julia Pollak, , Pollak, , Michael Feroli, Matthew Martin, ” Pollak, it’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, , , Commerce Department, CNN, Labor, JPMorgan, Oxford Economics, Challenger, Conference Locations: Minneapolis, April’s
The number of available US jobs surged in April
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Minneapolis CNN —The number of available jobs in the United States unexpectedly rose in April, bucking economists’ predictions after a three-month stretch of declines. Economists were expecting 9.375 million job openings, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv. As openings rose in April, so did the ratio of available jobs to Americans looking for work. Job openings started skyrocketing in 2021 as America’s economy sought to fully recover from the deep job losses suffered the year before, at the pandemic’s onset. The number of available jobs set records and bounced around those heights for much of the past two years.
Persons: Mark Hamrick, there’s, Matthew Martin, JOLTS, Martin Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal, Bankrate, Fed, Labor, Survey, Oxford Economics Locations: Minneapolis, United States, US
The closely watched core PCE index — where volatile components of food and energy are excluded — unexpectedly ticked up: The Fed’s go-to gauge was up 4.7% for the year. In March, the core PCE gauge grew by 4.6%. Economists had forecast that core PCE would hold steady at 4.6%, according to Refinitiv. Consumer spending jumped 0.8% in April from March, double what economists had expected. Excluding the effects of inflation, real consumer spending increased 0.5%, reflecting a boost seen from new car purchases, according to the report.
In February, the majority of economists said a downturn could start in the first half of the year; now, that’s shifted to the third quarter or later. There was, however, greater consensus on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking counterattack, banking turmoil and debt ceiling uncertainty. “A majority of panelists believes breaching the debt ceiling will not bring on a global financial crisis unless an impasse persists for several weeks. Most respondents believe de-dollarization is not a threat over the foreseeable future.”More than half (55%) of surveyed economists believe the debt ceiling will be raised, 42% believe the debt ceiling will be suspended, while 3% believe the United States will default on its debts. The economists surveyed expect interest rates to remain elevated through the rest of the year, and nearly half expect that the Fed will start cutting rates in the first quarter of next year.
Minneapolis CNN —The number of first-time claims for weekly jobless benefits fell last week to 242,000, down 22,000 from 264,000 the week before, according to data published Thursday by the Department of Labor. Continuing claims, which are filed by people who have received jobless benefits for more than one week, dipped to 1.799 million for the week ended May 6 from a revised 1.807 million the week prior. The outsized influence of Massachusetts’ claims was an anomaly, BofA economists wrote, noting that the state’s total employment accounts for under 3% of overall US employment, and its initial jobless claims are typically under 3% of all weekly US claims. When excluding and recalculating filings in Massachusetts, initial claims have instead moved “sideways,” pointing to limited layoffs, economists Stephen Juneau and Michael Gapen wrote. Weekly jobless claims remain below historical averages: In the decade before the pandemic, weekly claims averaged 311,000.
To this point, credit card debt has been rising at the sharpest pace of any debt covered in the report, said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for Bankrate. Last year, 39% carried debt month to month. Increases in credit card debt can be a either sign of confidence or struggle, he added. “For the foreseeable future, we’re stuck with high credit card rates, high balances, and more people carrying debt,” he said. “My advice would be to pay down credit card debt, as quickly and cost effectively as possible.
Annual inflation cooled off slightly in April
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
Minneapolis CNN —Annual inflation continued its slow-but-steady deceleration in April, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released Wednesday. The CPI climbed by 4.9% for the 12 months ended in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, representing a slightly slower pace of increase than the 5% in March. It’s the 10th consecutive month that the headline CPI rate has slowed, and it’s at its lowest rate since April 2021 — when this bout of painfully high inflation started to spike. Excluding food and energy costs, which tend to have more volatility, core CPI was unchanged at 5.5% for the 12 months ended in April. A welcome decline — albeit a slight one — came in the category of grocery prices, which fell 0.2% over the month, helping bring the annual rate of inflation there to 7.1%.
Survey respondents attributed the changes in lending standards to economic uncertainty, a reduced appetite for risk, deterioration in collateral values and broader concerns about banks’ funding costs and liquidity positions, according to the Fed report. At the time, banks expected that trend of tightening credit, waning demand and deteriorating loan quality would continue. Fed president: Central bank should weigh effectsFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with Yahoo! Fed officials, including Chair Powell, have previously noted that credit tightening could act similarly to a rate hike. A ‘salient risk’Separately on Monday, the Fed released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report, which assesses the resilience of the US financial system.
Minneapolis CNN —The labor market heated back up in April as employers added 253,000 jobs, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s a surprising increase at a time when many indicators were pointing to a slowdown in the job market. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% from 3.5%. Only three economists of the 87 polled by Refinitiv had projected job growth near or above 253,000. In March, the monthly and annual measures of wage gains in the private sector was up 0.3% and 4.3%, respectively.
Minneapolis CNN —High prices, rising interest rates and banking uncertainty be damned: The US labor market is still chugging right along. “The American labor market right now is simply unstoppable,” RSM economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in a note Friday. “This is what a soft landing would look like, with job growth gradually slowing to a more sustainable pace,” Faucher added. The milestone comes just three years after the Covid-19 pandemic caused mass layoffs that pushed the Black unemployment rate as high as 16.8%. “Make no mistake, the Black [unemployment] rate is still too high,” Shierholz tweeted.
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