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Search resuls for: "Mike Santoli"


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☆ The markets were headed into overbought territory, says LPL Financial's Quincy Krosby
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe markets were headed into overbought territory, says LPL Financial's Quincy KrosbyQuincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, joins Brian Sullivan and the 'CNBC Special: Taking Stock' to discuss today's market moves after hotter-than-expected inflation data came out this morning. With CNBC's Mike Santoli.
☆ ‘Volmageddon 2.0’: How Options are influencing markets
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email‘Volmageddon 2.0’: How Options are influencing marketsChris Murphy, Susquehanna co-head of derivative strategy, and CNBC’s Mike Santoli join ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the uptick in short-dated options, which some believe is threatening market stability, and whether the stock rallies are a dangerous mirage.
☆ Bond ETFs are bouncing back this year. Here’s why
  + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
After a dismal 2022 for fixed income funds, bonds are steadily regaining steam in the new year thanks in part to an inverted yield curve. "There's now income within the fixed income ETFs that are available," Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, told Mike Santoli on CNBC's "ETF Edge" on Monday. We've seen high-yield fixed income ETFs see inflows this year, as well as some of the safer products." Given the inverted shape of the yield curve, JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST) offers a portfolio comprised of short-term, investment-grade bonds. "It's really too early to declare and wave a victory flag with regard to the soft landing," Schneider said in the same segment on Monday.
☆ A.I. hype lifts Microsoft shares at Alphabet’s expense. An opportunity may be emerging for investors
  + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. It must work to absorb the pricing-in of another potential rate hike and some emotional, messy trading in parts of tech. Stocks rallied the days before, during and after the Fed hike, a decent sign Wall Street can handle the current stance. Worth noting GOOGL shares are down nearly 8% Wednesday afternoon, but they are still only back to week-ago levels. Is it an opportunity for anyone thinking the short-term AI hype is getting overdone?
☆ Tesla’s bounce on quarterly results can teach us something about mega-cap growth names
  + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The fact that the economy has not buckled in time to quickly redeem the faith of high-conviction bears has helped drive a tentatively reassuring cyclical rebound within the market. Consumer discretionary has been trouncing staples by 15 percentage points since the middle of last year. Certain elements of bull market behavior have clicked into place: The rally has been broad. With personal consumption expenditures inflation and the Fed meeting ahead, we'll see if holding-pattern action takes hold.
☆ S&P 500 tries to break bear market downtrend, but earnings remain lackluster
  + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The S & P 500 hovers at the downtrend line everyone's watching after back-to-back 1%+ gains. The S & P 500 popping above the famous trend line would be a positive but in itself not a game changer. S & P 500 as a whole at 17x next 12 months' consensus — not cheap. Slicing away the five largest S & P 500 names or using the equal-weight S & P renders the P/E nearer to 15x. Worth recalling the S & P had a 25%+ drawdown last year when earnings were still hitting record highs in aggregate, so softness in Q4 not entirely a shock to the tape.
☆ Stocks are pricing in more earnings erosion after first batch of reports
  + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. At 4,000 on the S & P 500, fewer things can safely go wrong without spurring the sellers than at 3,700. Earnings are yet again a give-and-take proposition, too early to draw broad conclusions but in general a bit of a downside tilt. Stocks themselves have done some work to price in further risk of profit erosion, but surely not in all cases. Market breadth moderately negative today but no washout yet, maintains the generally firmer footing its enjoyed this month.
☆ The S&P 500 and the VIX are near key thresholds, which could test the market’s mood
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. On balance, the result for stocks is a hesitation right near a fulcrum point for the S & P 500 – its 200-day moving average and the downtrend line from the January 2022 peak. In the very short term (like on a five-day rate-of-change scale) the S & P as of Wednesday's close was getting slightly stretched. -In the '90s, the Fed thought unemployment anywhere below around 5% to 6% would cause inflation to accelerate, but that proved wrong. For all of 2022, it has been smart to sell into rallies in the S & P at or above the 200-day average and when the VIX has dropped to or below 20.
☆ Stocks are approaching a key bear market level heading into Thursday's inflation report
  + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The market continues to migrate back toward riskier assets, with the consensus entering 2023 in a defensive posture and ill-prepared for a benign tilt toward inflation data or reassuring signals on corporate results. Media and busted hypergrowth stocks abound on the year-to-date winners list, and this is probably why. It's the market's job to look ahead to handicap a potential inflection point no matter what the Fed is saying. VIX pretty subdued near 21, not exactly clenched up in fear ahead of key data, though probably will drain lower after CPI and ahead of a three-day weekend.
☆ On the eve of the Fed’s decision, the case for stocks’ year-end strength is solidifying
  + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Though after the late-day Monday levitation, with the Fed decision Wednesday and the nearby presence of the S & P 500 resistance line just overhead, the rally has backed off. Inflation declining from high levels has historically been a very positive dynamic for equity performance, and investors remain in a bit of a defensive stance, so the case for year-end strength is solidifying. Of course, there is the Fed decision to get through. The crowd is arguably over-extrapolating near-term recession and earnings-decline hazards in calling for a run toward or below the October S & P 500 lows before a round trip higher.
☆ One group of stocks is refusing to buckle even with a recession looming
  + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Bank of America here plots what has historically happened in the year before and after the Fed's final rate hike. The best return came after the 1980 halt, and the worst in 1969 right ahead of a recession with still-high inflation (5-6% CPI). A longer-term look at the equal-weighted consumer discretionary vs. energy stocks shows some convergence here as the consumer has refused to buckle, car production is in catch-up mode and even homebuilder stocks are 25% off their lows, with energy in consolidation mode. Energy stocks faltering but still holding longer-term uptrends for now.
☆ Tech wreckage catches up to Salesforce as cloud giant's valuation reaches parity to Microsoft's
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. This pattern will break at some point, so a run to the old lows or beyond can't be assumed. Big Tech has done nothing to distinguish itself in the October-November rally in terms of regaining leadership. History says the big overheated leadership group of one bull market usually is sidelined even after the next one starts. It happened to Meta and Alphabet, now finally Salesforce is valued in parity with Microsoft after 17 years of extreme priciness.
☆ Apple stock’s recent weakness could stem from safety-seeking investors who are now fleeing
  + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. We're not yet in breakdown mode, in other words, as the S & P 500 remains above its 20-day average (near 3,900). There's very much another value-over-growth tone: Month-to-date S & P 500 value is outperforming growth by three percentage points and by more than 20 so far this year. Breadth is positive despite the red S & P 500. VIX is hanging near 22, up off the low and very much in an inverse range to that of the S & P 500 for the past several months.
☆ This indicator is offering a hopeful signal for global markets, despite turmoil in China
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Rising Covid cases in China and protests are shadowing economic sentiment but are otherwise hard to fit into the broader outlook. Global equity-market breadth has improved, with this Ned Davis Research chart of the percentage of MSCI All Country World Index components nudging into uptrends offering a more hopeful signal. Not yet definitive, but it suggests if nothing else that the typical stock on the globe has been finding some fresh demand in recent weeks. Sentiment is cautious, though less fearful versus six weeks ago, and it's still supportive but no catalyst on its own.
☆ Best Buy's jump on ho-hum earnings shows how unloved some retail stocks have become
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The tape remains firm, levitating toward the upper end of a tight range in place for a week and a half. Best Buy 's pop on a still-soft sales outlook shows how cheap and unloved some of the group's leading stocks have become, though understandably given how sellers of goods over-earned the prior couple of years. It also shows upside risk, as managers might be forced to chase, though other gauges suggest more a hopeful stance by retail (decent stock inflows recently). There's a way to tell the story of 2022 as a year of concentrated, productive payback and reset.
☆ Bob Iger's return may not boost Disney's shares as market sends mixed signals to media stocks
  + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Valuations are less demanding than several months ago, which is probably fair for the average stock but fuller at the index level thanks to still-rich megacaps. Treasurys rising again at the longer end, sinking the yield curve further, while the dollar rebounds a bit — both risk-averse actions. The current economic activity levels are not observably recessionary, but the yield curve and its historical record of preceding recessions is in investors' head. Here is the enterprise value-to-forward-cash-flow ratios of Disney vs. Netflix .
☆ Financial markets not showing too much stress, even as the crypto complex gets dismantled
  + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. But the point is, stocks have not been oblivious to slowdown risk to this point. Part of this is because energy firms are nicely profitable even at $75-$85 crude and are the rare group showing earnings growth. So far, the financial markets have not shown particular stress over the crypto unwind. Almost no movement in VIX, with modest index moves, expiration often pinning indexes in a narrow band and holiday-slowed trading ahead next week.
☆ Hints of a joyless spending trend emerge in the retail sales report and Target’s quarterly results
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The market continues to pause, stall, digest and regroup with the S & P 500 churning near the 4,000 level, its maximum gain off the Oct. 13 intraday low 15% to this week's high. This time, the S & P 500 was down 11.5% before the curve went negative. S & P 500 was down 15% in the prior year to that point. With Treasury yields higher than in past years, it means absolute debt expense for riskier borrowers has begun to pinch, but for now spreads show no alarming pattern.
☆ What's really behind the sudden tension-release rally and whether it can last
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. -A sudden tension-release rally as a benign inflation report collides with a market wound tight against further adverse surprises, driving a burst of short-covering and a grab for equity exposure and takes the S & P 500 directly to its next noteworthy test. Still, the S & P is merely up less than 1% for November, so it remains whippy within a range. -The crypto tumult is far from sorted out but the risk rally today taking some pressure off. -VIX down almost 3 under 24, ratifying the lift in indexes and expressing relief at having the big known catalysts (election, CPI) past for now.
☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Ritholtz Wealth Management co-founder & CEO Josh Brown
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Ritholtz Wealth Management co-founder & CEO Josh BrownCNBC's Kate Rooney and Mike Santoli, and Josh Brown, Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss markets and Binance's decision to walk away from FTX deal.
☆ Election forecasts are fueling the rally, but stocks need to hit this level to win over the bears
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The multi-day bounce has now taken the S & P 500 back to where it sat as Fed Chair Powell started taking questions and overtly raised his own outlook for how high rates must go six days ago. The ICE Bank of America MOVE Index (the Treasury market's VIX) is still in an uptrend but these pullbacks have coincided with equity rallies all year. The average stock has dropped 36% from its high and the equal-weight S & P is at a relatively undemanding 14-times forward earnings. VIX bottoms (and equity rally tops) have come a few times this year near 19.
☆ Reports of possible Meta layoffs could point to 'self-help' moment for megacap stocks
  + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Apple is holding the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite in check, giving back more of its sizable outperformance and "stability premium," though oversold Big tech is seeing some relief. Heavy layoffs at Meta hinting that a "self-help" moment has arrived to hep preserve mega-cap tech platform margins even as last week's messy purge of busted-growth cloud stocks persists. The S & P 500 since 1950 has never been down the six or 12 months after a midterm vote, and the returns on average for the post-midterm year are twice all other years. All of this is pretty contingent, the S & P 500 still churning under resistance, earnings forecasts inching lower, much reliance by bulls on positioning and seasonal factors.
☆ A key threshold awaits the S&P 500, which could test the staying power of this October rally
  + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The tape's refusal to buckle on bad news (the consumer price index report, megacap tech earnings blowups, etc.) Yet again, the market is trying to make its peace with a new higher threshold of rates that few foresaw coming even six months ago. Profit forecasts continue to drop though still at a measured pace for the fourth quarter, with 2023 an unknown. Weekend column gets into the ins and outs of seasonal factors, which fail just often enough for people to doubt them.
☆ Breaking down October's big stock bounce — and why the market didn't need Big Tech to do it
  + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. -The S & P has managed tentatively to have broken the downtrend from the mid-August peak and has rebuilt a bit of a cushion. Before the report AMZN had traded exactly in line with S & P 500 over the prior three years. -Market breadth today is mixed, 50-50, AAPL really pushing the indexes quite a bit on its own. VIX succumbing to stronger indexes and the "Friday effect," though will likely rebuild into the Fed next week.
☆ Tesla is testing a key chart level first reached after being added to the S&P 500
  + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. With one eye on the Treasury market and another on corporate results, the S & P 500 is sticky around the 3,700 level for a third straight day. The S & P 500 rebound from the Sept. 30 and Oct. 13 CPI-reaction low has cleared an initial hurdle, crossing above its 20-day average, something it had failed at three times since mid-August. There is now a solid LEI peak in place and the pre-recessionary clock has been ticking for a bit now. The lead times can be long (two years from 2005-2007) between LEI peak and formal recession.
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